Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Parameter dependencies of the experimental nitrogen concentration required for detachment on ASDEX Upgrade and JET

While current tokamak experiments are beginning to use real-time feedback control systems to manage the plasma exhaust, future tokamaks still require validation of theoretical models used to predict the threshold impurity concentration required to sufficiently reduce the power and particle fluxes to the divertor. This work exploits new spectroscopic measurements of the divertor nitrogen concentration, c n , in partially detached N 2 -seeded H-mode plasmas on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and JET with the ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW) to test the parameter dependencies of the power flowing to the outer divertor, P div,outer , and the separatrix electron density, n e.sep . A least-squares regression of the AUG measurements demonstrates that the threshold c n required for detachment scales as $c_n∝P^{1.19±0.32}_{div,outer}n^{-2.77±0.36}_{e,sep}$. This scaling of n e,sep is also consistent with the measurements from JET which, at constant P div,outer , show $c_n∝n^{-2.43±0.27}_{e,sep}$. The dependencies of P div,outer and n e.sep is demonstrated over at least a factor of two change in both parameters and indicates a stronger dependence on n e.sep in comparison to the Lengyel model, which could be due to the assumption in this model that the heat flux channel width is independent of density. This first assessment of detachment scaling with impurity seeding highlights the need for further analysis of the systematic uncertainties of the measurement and more consistent scenarios from more tokamaks to investigate the machine size scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Plutonium isotope ratio measurements by total evaporation-thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TE-TIMS): an evaluation of uncertainties using traceable standards from the New Brunswick Laboratory

The accuracy and precision of isotope amount ratio measurements using thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) instrumentation are described, and the measurement of Pu materials is emphasized. The mass fractionation observed for Am, Ga, Pu, and U for isotope amount ratio measurements using the total evaporation (TE) technique is compared with theoretical estimates to demonstrate the advantage of the TE methodology and to investigate systematic biases in the major isotope amount ratios of U and Pu certified reference material (CRM) standards from the U.S. provider of CRMs. The quality of the Pu isotopic data generated by TIMS instruments in an analytical laboratory is demonstrated by the application of the double ratio technique to estimate the 241 Pu half-life. Analytical data on traceable Pu CRMs from the New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL), generated as part of routine measurements supporting various programs, are used for this half-life estimation. Although the 241 Pu abundances in CRMs of 136, 137, 138, and 126-A are approximately 200–2000× smaller than those in the 241 Pu material used in the previous Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM) evaluation of the 241 Pu half-life, the half-life value estimated in this work shows excellent agreement with the currently accepted value from the IRMM. This agreement also demonstrates the pedigree of the Pu isotopic standards from the NBL and the quality of the isotope amount ratio measurements using TIMS instrumentation. For both the major and minor Pu isotope amount ratios, this report describes the relative importance of the factors affecting the uncertainty of TIMS measurements, which are considered the gold standard in isotope ratio measurements (LA-UR-24-29199).

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Design of a High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Tri-Structural Isotropic Critical Experiment for Advanced Reactor Validation

High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel is a key component of many small modular reactor designs. Critical experiments are an important way to understand the neutronic performance of systems by obtaining nuclear data validations through measurements. Data reduce uncertainty and risk by showing that systems respond as predicted to changes such as temperature, subsequently advancing the overall technology readiness level of the materials within. Numerous critical experiments have been performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) operated by Los Alamos National Laboratory at the Nevada National Security Site since it became operational in 2011. However, the first experiment with HALEU fuel did not occur until 2024. Through extensive engineering, the experiment described in this paper was successfully designed and executed for the Comet vertical lift assembly at NCERC to perform measurements with HALEU tri-structural isotropic fuel that will assist in validation of nuclear data and computational modeling of small modular reactors for years to come.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

In situ measurements of BrO in the Arctic stratosphere

Mixing ratios of BrO have been measured in the Arctic lower statosphere with an instrument mounted on the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Observations from fourteen flights above the Arctic Circle in January and February of 1989 defined mixing ratios within the vortex of 4 + or - 2 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) at a potential temperature of 400 K, rising to 8 + or - 2 pptv at 470 K. These values are twice as large as values found at equivalent potential temperatures at lower latitudes, and are comparable to the mixing ratios found inside the antarctic polar vortex. Within the statistical uncertainty of the measurements, no BrO was observed in darkness at any time either inside or outside of the vortex, indicating that active bromine was sequestered in long-lived reservoirs, probably BrONO2 and BrCl. These measurements, in conjuction with measurements of ClO, demonstrate that the interaction of bromine and chlorine could represent a major sink for ozone in the presence of sunlight.

Toohey, D. W.↗

Thrust Measurement of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) Plasma Actuators: New Anti-Thrust Hypothesis, Frequency Sweeps Methodology, Humidity and Enclosure Effects

We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust, or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a grounded large-diameter metal sleeve. Strong dependence on humidity is also shown; the thrust significantly increased with decreasing humidity, e.g., 44 percent increase as relative humidity changed from 18 percent and dew point 33 degF to 50 percent and dew point of 57 degF.

Ashpis, David E.↗

Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) Plasma Actuators Thrust-Measurement Methodology Incorporating New Anti-Thrust Hypothesis

We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a large diameter, grounded, metal sleeve.

Ashpis, David E.↗

Measurement of $t\overline{t}$ production in association with additional b -jets in the eμ final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of top-antitop quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) production in association with additional b-jets. The analysis utilises 140 fb -1 of proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. Fiducial cross-sections are extracted in a final state featuring one electron and one muon, with at least three or four b-jets. Results are presented at the particle level for both integrated cross-sections and normalised differential cross-sections, as functions of global event properties, jet kinematics, and b-jet pair properties. Observable quantities characterising b-jets originating from the top quark decay and additional b-jets are also measured at the particle level, after correcting for detector effects. The measured integrated fiducial cross sections are consistent with $t\overline{t}$$b\overline{b}$ predictions from various next-to-leading-order matrix element calculations matched to a parton shower within the uncertainties of the predictions. State of-the-art theoretical predictions are compared with the differential measurements; none of them simultaneously describes all observables. Differences between any two predictions are smaller than the measurement uncertainties for most observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Radar Retrieval Evaluation and Investigation of Dendritic Growth Layer Polarimetric Signatures in a Winter Storm

Abstract This study evaluates ice particle size distribution and aspect ratio φ Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) dual-polarization radar retrievals through a direct comparison with two legs of observational aircraft data obtained during a winter storm case from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) campaign. In situ cloud probes, satellite, and MRMS observations illustrate that the often-observed K dp and Z DR enhancement regions in the dendritic growth layer can either indicate a local number concentration increase of dry ice particles or the presence of ice particles mixed with a significant number of supercooled liquid droplets. Relative to in situ measurements, MRMS retrievals on average underestimated mean volume diameters by 50% and overestimated number concentrations by over 100%. IWC retrievals using Z DR and K dp within the dendritic growth layer were minimally biased relative to in situ calculations where retrievals yielded −2% median relative error for the entire aircraft leg. Incorporating φ retrievals decreased both the magnitude and spread of polarimetric retrievals below the dendritic growth layer. While φ radar retrievals suggest that observed dendritic growth layer particles were nonspherical (0.1 ≤ φ ≤ 0.2), in situ projected aspect ratios, idealized numerical simulations, and habit classifications from cloud probe images suggest that the population mean φ was generally much higher. Coordinated aircraft radar reflectivity with in situ observations suggests that the MRMS systematically underestimated reflectivity and could not resolve local peaks in mean volume diameter sizes. These results highlight the need to consider particle assumptions and radar limitations when performing retrievals. significance statement Developing snow is often detectable using weather radars. Meteorologists combine these radar measurements with mathematical equations to study how snow forms in order to determine how much snow will fall. This study evaluates current methods for estimating the total number and mass, sizes, and shapes of snowflakes from radar using images of individual snowflakes taken during two aircraft legs. Radar estimates of snowflake properties were most consistent with aircraft data inside regions with prominent radar signatures. However, radar estimates of snowflake shapes were not consistent with observed shapes estimated from the snowflake images. Although additional research is needed, these results bolster understanding of snow-growth physics and uncertainties between radar measurements and snow production that can improve future snowfall forecasting.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Position Papers for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty Workshop

The ability to solve inverse problems – inferring unknown parameters, structures, or states of a system from observed data – is essential for advancing scientific discovery and innovation capabilities for the DOE mission. Basic research needs and challenges are particularly acute in emerging areas such as the interactive, data-driven, modeling and simulation of digital twins; decision support for experiments at DOE scientific user facilities; and for other complex systems and workflows. Inverse problems are at the heart of understanding and controlling complex systems due to factors such as observational data with varying modalities and fidelities, inherent uncertainties in physical measurements and numerical models, and the computational demands of rapid and high-fidelity simulations. The convergence of recent scientific computing trends – scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing – is creating unprecedented opportunities. These advancements offer the potential to revolutionize how we approach inverse problems to extract actionable insights with the required level of accuracy and computational efficiency. This workshop and the Call for Position Papers are vital steps in bringing together experts to collectively explore and identify the new computational and mathematical directions needed in inverse methods for complex systems under uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Precision Kinematic Sunyaev--Zel'dovich Measurements Across Halo Mass and Redshift with DESI DR2 and ACT DR6: Part I. Luminous Red Galaxies

We present the most precise measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect around luminous red galaxies to date, detecting the signal at $18σ$ significance in both harmonic and configuration space. Our analysis cross-correlates 2.4 million spectroscopic LRGs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR2 sample with Data Release 6 (DR6) of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We develop a novel harmonic-space cross-correlation approach using momentum-weighted kSZ templates, yielding nearly uncorrelated bandpowers within a framework consistent with other large-scale structure analyses. By incorporating the LRG halo occupation distribution (HOD) and its uncertainty, we convert measured galaxy gas profiles into halo gas profiles and provide generalized Navarro-Frenk-White (GNFW) fitting profiles, providing empirical targets for tuning feedback efficiency in hydrodynamical simulations and for baryonic modeling in large-scale structure analyses. We find strong evidence that gas profiles do not trace dark matter, providing direct evidence for gas redistribution beyond gravitational collapse. Comparing to hydrodynamical simulations, our measurements favor feedback efficiencies exceeding those in the Battaglia profile, suggesting more efficient gas ejection in group-scale halos than previously predicted. Splitting by redshift, we detect the kSZ signal at SNR $\approx 5$--$10$ in each of four bins and find amplitude evolution consistent with the expected decline in mean halo mass at fixed comoving number density. Splitting by stellar mass, we study the scaling of kSZ amplitude with galaxy properties. Together with BGS and ELG measurements in Paper II, these results span $0.1 \lesssim z \lesssim 1.6$ across three galaxy populations, demonstrating the potential of spectroscopic kSZ to map circumgalactic gas and constrain baryonic feedback.

Qu, F. J. [KIPAC, Menlo Park; Stanford U., HEPL; S↗

BICEP/ Keck XVIII: Measurement of BICEP3 polarization angles and consequences for constraining cosmic birefringence and inflation

We use a custom-made calibrator to measure individual detectors’ polarization angles of BICEP3, a small aperture telescope observing the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95 GHz from the South Pole. We describe our calibration strategy and the statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with the measurement. We reach an unprecedented precision for such measurement on a CMB experiment, with a repeatability for each detector pair of 0.02°. Here, we show that the relative angles measured using this method are in excellent agreement with those extracted from CMB data. Because the absolute measurement is currently limited by a systematic uncertainty, we do not derive cosmic birefringence constraints from BICEP3 data in this work. Rather, we forecast the sensitivity of BICEP3 sky maps for such analysis. We investigate the relative contributions of instrument noise, lensing, and dust, as well as astrophysical and instrumental systematics. We also explore the constraining power of different angle estimators, depending on analysis choices. We establish that the BICEP3 2-year dataset (2017–2018) has an on-sky sensitivity to the cosmic birefringence angle of 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.07⁢8°, which could be improved to 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.05⁢5° by adding all of the existing BICEP3 data (through 2023). Furthermore, we emphasize the possibility of using the BICEP3 sky patch as a polarization calibration source for CMB experiments, which with the present data could reach a precision of 0.035°. Finally, in the context of inflation searches, we investigate the impact of detector-to-detector variations in polarization angles as they may bias the tensor-to-scalar ratio 𝑟. We show that while the effect is expected to remain subdominant to other sources of systematic uncertainty, it can be reliably calibrated using polarization angle measurements such as the ones we present in this paper.

Cosmic microwave background↗

Systematic Uncertainties of the NOvA Neutrino Oscillation Analysis

NOvA is a two detector long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment using Fermilab’s 700 kW NuMI muon neutrino beam. It studies the disappearance of muon (anti)neutrinos and the appearance of electron (anti)neutrinos in the beam over a distance of 810 km between the detectors. The observations can be used to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters: $\theta_{23}, \Delta m_{32}^2$ and $\delta_{CP}$ in the standard 3 active neutrinos paradigm. Although statistical uncertainties currently dominate in these measurements, understanding the major sources of systematic uncertainties and their correlations is vital for both the interpretation and precision of the results and also for further improvements of the analysis. This note presents details of the systematic uncertainties affecting NOvA's neutrino oscillation analysis results and how we evaluate them by generating systematically shifted predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Jovian winds from Voyager 2. I - Zonal mean circulation

Independent measurements of Jovian cloud motions confirm previously published results on the general structure of Jupiter's zonal mean circulation. The new results are based on Voyager 2 images and measurement techniques which are different from those used in previous studies. The latitudes of the zonal jets agree with previous results, but there are some differences in the measured speed of the jets which exceed uncertainty estimates. These differences may be due to differences in sampling strategies. The structure of the zonal mean meridional velocity profile has still not been clearly resolved: mean meridional velocities generally differ from zero by no more than their estimated uncertainty. An analysis of successive measurements of the same cloud targets shows that most of the variance of individual velocity measurements is due to true variability of the winds.

Limaye, S. S.↗

Measurement of the 175 Hf half-life

Hafnium-175 is a useful radioisotope for numerous applications; however, its evaluated half-life (70 ± 2 days) has a large uncertainty. To enable a new measurement of the half-life, 175 Hf was produced via proton irradiation of natural lutetium and chemically purified. The 175 Hf sample was counted approximately once a month with three high-purity germanium detectors for 13 months (~5.5 half-lives). A 133 Ba standard was counted in an identical manner to quantify systematic uncertainties over the measurement period. In conclusion, the measured 175 Hf half-life is 69.90 ± 0.07 days, in agreement with the evaluated value, but with significantly reduced uncertainty.

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗

Survey of Surveys: I. The largest compilation of radial velocities for the Galaxy

In the present-day panorama of large spectroscopic surveys, the amount, diversity, and complexity of the available data continuously increase. The overarching goal of studying the formation and evolution of our Galaxy is hampered by the heterogeneity of instruments, selection functions, analysis methods, and measured quantities. Here, we present a comprehensive catalogue, the Survey of Surveys (SoS), built by homogeneously merging the radial velocity (RV) determinations of the largest ground-based spectroscopic surveys to date, such as APOGEE, GALAH, Gaia-ESO, RAVE, and LAMOST, using Gaia as a reference. This pilot study serves to prove the concept and to test the methodology that we plan to apply in the future to the stellar parameters and abundance ratios as well. We have devised a multi-staged procedure that includes: (i) the cross match between Gaia and the spectroscopic surveys using the official Gaia cross-match algorithm, (ii) the normalisation of uncertainties using repeated measurements or the three-cornered hat method, (iii) the cross calibration of the RVs as a function of the main parameters on which depend (magnitude, effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity, and signal-to-noise ratio) to remove trends and zero point offsets, and (iv) the comparison with external high-resolution samples, such as the Gaia RV standards and the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, to validate the homogenisation procedure and to calibrate the RV zero-point of the SoS catalogue. We provide the largest homogenised RV catalogue to date, containing almost 11 million stars, of which about half come exclusively from Gaia and half in combination with the ground-based surveys. We estimate the accuracy of the RV zero-point to be about 0.16–0.31 km s –1 and the RV precision to be in the range 0.05–1.50 km s –1 depending on the type of star and on its survey provenance. We validate the SoS RVs with open clusters from a high resolution homogeneous samples and provide the systemic velocity of 55 individual open clusters. Additionally, we provide median RVs for 532 clusters recently discovered by Gaia data. The SoS is publicly available and ready to be applied to various research projects, such as the study of star clusters, Galactic archaeology, stellar streams, or the characterisation of planet-hosting stars, to name a few. We also plan to include survey updates and more data sources in future versions of the SoS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The orbital inclination of A0620 - 00 measured polarimetrically

The mass of the degenerate primary in A0620 - 00 is inferred from its spectroscopic mass function to be not less than 3.2 solar masses, making it an excellent candidate for a black hole. The exact value of the mass depends on the orbital inclination. The inclination of a binary system can be determined from the shape of its Stokes parameter light curves if the linear polarization of the system varies as a function of orbital phase. A0620 - 00 over one 8-hour binary period was observed with the 4.5-m equivalent MMT. Its polarization in the visible is variable with orbital phase. The standard theory of Brown et al. (1978) was used to derive an orbital inclination of i = 57 deg (+20 deg, -50 deg), where the error is the 90-percent confidence interval. An inclination of i = 57 deg corresponds to a mass of the compact primary of 6.6 solar masses, but the large uncertainty in the measured value of the inclination allows the derived mass of A0620 - 00 to be as low as 3.8 solar masses. If this is taken to be the maximum mass of any degenerate configuration consistent with general relativity except a black hole, then the mass of A0620 - 00 is still not well enough determined to conclude that it must be a black hole.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗

Bayesian High-Rank Hankel Matrix Completion for Nonlinear Synchrophasor Data Recovery

Phasor measurement units (PMUs) provide high temporal-resolution synchrophasor measurements for power system monitoring and control. The frequent data quality issues, such as missing and bad data, prevent the incorporation of synchrophasor data in real-time operations. Most existing data-driven data recovery methods assume the power system dynamics can be approximated by a linear dynamical system, and the recovery performance degrades significantly when the power system is experiencing nonlinear dynamics during significant events. Here, this paper proposes a data-driven Bayesian nonlinear synchrophasor data recovery method (Ba-NSDR) that can recover a consecutive time period of simultaneous data losses or errors across all channels, even when the underlying system is highly nonlinear. The idea is to lift the Hankel matrix of the spatial-temporal synchrophasor data to a higher dimension such that the lifted Hankel matrix is low-rank in that space and can be processed with the kernel trick. Our proposed Bayesian method then infers the probabilistic distributions of synchrophasor from the partial observations. Some distinctive features of Ba-NSDR include an uncertainty index to measure the accuracy of the recovery result and the robustness to parameter selections. Our method is verified on both synthetic and recorded event datasets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Resonant Doppler velocimeter

A technique is presented for visualizing and quantitatively measuring velocity, temperature, and pressure by shining a single frequency laser beam into a gaseous flow which is seeded with an atomic species. The laser is tuned through the absorption frequencies of the seeded species and the absorption profile is detected by observing fluorescence as the atoms relax back to the ground state. The flow velocity is determined by observing the Doppler shift in the absorption frequency. Spectroscopic absorption line broadening mechanisms furnish information regarding the static temperature and pressure of the moving gas. Results of experiments conducted in the free stream and in the bow shock of a conical model mounted in a hypersonic wind tunnel indicate that the experimental uncertainties in the measurement of average values for the velocity, temperature and pressure of the flow are 0.1, 5 and 10 percent respectively.

Zimmermann, M.↗