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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Constraining the evolution of the CMB temperature with SZ measurements from Planck data

The CMB temperature-redshift relation, T{sub CMB}(z)=T{sub 0}(1+z), is a key prediction of the standard cosmology but is violated in many non-standard models. Constraining possible deviations from this law is an effective way to test the ΛCDM paradigm and to search for hints of new physics. We have determined T{sub CMB}(z), with a precision up to 3%, for a subsample (103 clusters) of the Planck SZ cluster catalog, at redshifts in the range 0.01–0.94, using measurements of the spectrum of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect obtained from Planck temperature maps at frequencies from 70 to 353 GHz. The method adopted to provide individual determinations of T{sub CMB}(z) at cluster redshift relies on the use of SZ intensity change, Δ I{sub SZ}(ν) at different frequencies and on a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach. By applying this method to the sample of 103 clusters, we limit possible deviations of the form T{sub CMB}(z)=T{sub 0}(1+z){sup 1−β} to be β= 0.012 ± 0.016, at 1σ uncertainty, consistent with the prediction of the standard model. Combining these measurements with previously published results, we get β=0.013±0.011.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

REFINED SYSTEM PARAMETERS AND TTV STUDY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETARY SYSTEM HAT-P-20

We report new photometric observations of the transiting exoplanetary system HAT-P-20, obtained using CCD cameras at Yunnan Observatories and Ho Koon Nature Education cum Astronomical Centre, China, from 2010 to 2013, and Observatori Ca l’Ou, Sant Marti Sesgueioles, Spain, from 2013 to 2015. The observed data are corrected for systematic errors according to the coarse de-correlation and SYSREM algorithms, so as to enhance the signal of the transit events. In order to consistently model the star spots and transits of this exoplanetary system, we develop a highly efficient tool STMT based on the analytic models of Mandel and Agol and Montalto et al. The physical parameters of HAT-P-20 are refined by homogeneously analyzing our new data, the radial velocity data, and the earlier photometric data in the literature with the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. New radii and masses of both host star and planet are larger than those in the discovery paper due to the discrepancy of the radius among K-dwarfs between predicted values by standard stellar models and empirical calibration from observations. Through the analysis of all available mid-transit times calculated with the normal model and spotted model, we conclude that the periodic transit timing variations in these transit events revealed by employing the normal model are probably induced by spot crossing events. From the analysis of the distribution of occulted spots by HAT-P-20b, we constrain the misaligned architecture between the planetary orbit and the spin of the host star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗
NASA NTRS2003

Control Law Design in a Computational Aeroelasticity Environment

A methodology for designing active control laws in a computational aeroelasticity environment is given. The methodology involves employing a systems identification technique to develop an explicit state-space model for control law design from the output of a computational aeroelasticity code. The particular computational aeroelasticity code employed in this paper solves the transonic small disturbance aerodynamic equation using a time-accurate, finite-difference scheme. Linear structural dynamics equations are integrated simultaneously with the computational fluid dynamics equations to determine the time responses of the structure. These structural responses are employed as the input to a modern systems identification technique that determines the Markov parameters of an "equivalent linear system". The Eigensystem Realization Algorithm is then employed to develop an explicit state-space model of the equivalent linear system. The Linear Quadratic Guassian control law design technique is employed to design a control law. The computational aeroelasticity code is modified to accept control laws and perform closed-loop simulations. Flutter control of a rectangular wing model is chosen to demonstrate the methodology. Various cases are used to illustrate the usefulness of the methodology as the nonlinearity of the aeroelastic system is increased through increased angle-of-attack changes.

Newsom, Jerry R.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Continuum Modeling and Control of Large Nonuniform Wireless Networks via Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

We introduce a continuum modeling method to approximate a class of large wireless networks by nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). This method is based on the convergence of a sequence of underlying Markov chains of the network indexed by N , the number of nodes in the network. As N goes to infinity, the sequence converges to a continuum limit, which is the solution of a certain nonlinear PDE. We first describe PDE models for networks with uniformly located nodes and then generalize to networks with nonuniformly located, and possibly mobile, nodes. Based on the PDE models, we develop a method to control the transmissions in nonuniform networks so that the continuum limit is invariant under perturbations in node locations. This enables the networks to maintain stable global characteristics in the presence of varying node locations.

Zhang, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS1985

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗
DOE OSTI2013

MULTIBAND STUDIES OF THE OPTICAL PERIODIC MODULATION IN THE X-RAY BINARY SAX J1808.4-3658 DURING ITS QUIESCENCE AND 2008 OUTBURST

We report on time-resolved optical imaging of the X-ray binary SAX J1808.4-3658 during its quiescent state and 2008 outburst. The binary, containing an accretion-powered millisecond pulsar, has a large sinusoidal-like modulation in its quiescent optical emission. We employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit our multi-band light curve data in quiescence with an irradiated star model, and derive a tight constraint of 50{sup +6}{sub -5} deg on the inclination angle i of the binary system. The pulsar and its companion are constrained to have masses of 0.97{sub -0.22}{sup +0.31} M{sub Sun} and 0.04{sub -0.01}{sup +0.02} M{sub Sun} (both 1{sigma} ranges), respectively. The dependence of these results on the measurements of the companion's projected radial velocity is discussed. We also find that the accretion disk had nearly constant optical fluxes over a {approx}500 day period in the quiescent state our data covered, but started brightening 1.5 months before the 2008 outburst. Variations in modulation during the outburst were detected in our four observations made 7-12 days after the start of the outburst, and a sinusoidal-like modulation with 0.2 mag amplitude changed to have a smaller amplitude of 0.1 mag. The modulation variations are discussed. We estimate the albedo of the companion during its quiescence and the outburst, which was approximately 0 and 0.8 (for isotropic emission), respectively. This large difference probably provides additional evidence that the neutron star in the binary turns on as a radio pulsar in quiescence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

A bayesian approach to estimate the size and structure of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei using reverberation mapping data

This is the first paper in a series devoted to the systematic study of the size and structure of the broad-line region (BLR) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using reverberation mapping (RM) data. We employ a recently developed Bayesian approach that statistically describes the variability as a damped random walk process and delineates the BLR structure using a flexible disk geometry that can account for a variety of shapes, including disks, rings, shells, and spheres. We allow for the possibility that the line emission may respond non-linearly to the continuum, and we detrend the light curves when there is clear evidence for secular variation. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation based on Bayesian statistics to recover the parameters and uncertainties for the BLR model. The corresponding transfer function is obtained self-consistently. We tentatively constrain the virial factor used to estimate black hole masses; more accurate determinations will have to await velocity-resolved RM data. Application of our method to RM data with Hβ monitoring for about 40 objects shows that the assumed BLR geometry can reproduce quite well the observed emission-line fluxes from the continuum light curves. We find that the Hβ BLR sizes obtained from our method are on average ∼20% larger than those derived from the traditional cross-correlation method. Nevertheless, we still find a tight BLR size-luminosity relation with a slope of α = 0.55 ± 0.03 and an intrinsic scatter of ∼0.18 dex. In particular, we demonstrate that our approach yields appropriate BLR sizes for some objects (such as Mrk 142 and PG 2130+099) where traditional methods previously encountered difficulties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗
DOE OSTI2012

Controlled Nonlinear Stochastic Delay Equations: Part II: Approximations and Pipe-Flow Representations

This is the second part of a work dealing with key issues that have not been addressed in the modeling and numerical optimization of nonlinear stochastic delay systems. We consider new classes of models, such as those with nonlinear functions of several controls (such as products), each with is own delay, controlled random Poisson measure driving terms, admissions control with delayed retrials, and others. Part I was concerned with issues concerning the class of admissible controls and their approximations, since the classical definitions are inadequate for our models. This part is concerned with transportation equation representations and their approximations. Such representations of nonlinear stochastic delay models have been crucial in the development of numerical algorithms with much reduced memory and computational requirements. The representations for the new models are not obvious and are developed. They also provide a template for the adaptation of the Markov chain approximation numerical methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Expectation propagation for nonlinear inverse problems – with an application to electrical impedance tomography

In this paper, we study a fast approximate inference method based on expectation propagation for exploring the posterior probability distribution arising from the Bayesian formulation of nonlinear inverse problems. It is capable of efficiently delivering reliable estimates of the posterior mean and covariance, thereby providing an inverse solution together with quantified uncertainties. Some theoretical properties of the iterative algorithm are discussed, and the efficient implementation for an important class of problems of projection type is described. The method is illustrated with one typical nonlinear inverse problem, electrical impedance tomography with complete electrode model, under sparsity constraints. Numerical results for real experimental data are presented, and compared with that by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The results indicate that the method is accurate and computationally very efficient.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2 /O 2 -mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the given summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Reinforcement Learning based Model-free On-line Dynamic Multi-Microgrid Formation to Enhance Resilience

Multi-microgrid formation (MMGF) is a promising solution for enhancing power system resilience. This paper proposes a new deep reinforcement learning (RL) based model-free on-line dynamic MMGF scheme. Additionally, the dynamic MMGF problem is formulated as a Markov decision process, and a complete deep RL framework is specially designed for the topologytransformable micro-grids. In order to reduce the large action space caused by flexible switch operations, a topology transformation method is proposed and an action-decoupling Q-value is applied. Then, a convolutional neural network (CNN) based multi-buffer double deep Q-network (CM-DDQN) is developed to further improve the learning ability of the original DQN method. The proposed deep RL method provides real-time computing to support the on-line dynamic MMGF scheme, and the scheme handles a long-term resilience enhancement problem using an adaptive on-line MMGF to defend changeable conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using a 7-bus system and the IEEE 123-bus system. The results show strong learning ability, timely response for varying system conditions and convincing resilience enhancement.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

The orbit and transit prospects for β pictoris b constrained with one milliarcsecond astrometry

A principal scientific goal of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is obtaining milliarcsecond astrometry to constrain exoplanet orbits. However, astrometry of directly imaged exoplanets is subject to biases, systematic errors, and speckle noise. Here, we describe an analytical procedure to forward model the signal of an exoplanet that accounts for both the observing strategy (angular and spectral differential imaging) and the data reduction method (Karhunen–Loève Image Projection algorithm). We use this forward model to measure the position of an exoplanet in a Bayesian framework employing Gaussian processes and Markov-chain Monte Carlo to account for correlated noise. In the case of GPI data on β Pic b, this technique, which we call Bayesian KLIP-FM Astrometry (BKA), outperforms previous techniques and yields 1σ errors at or below the one milliarcsecond level. We validate BKA by fitting a Keplerian orbit to 12 GPI observations along with previous astrometry from other instruments. The statistical properties of the residuals confirm that BKA is accurate and correctly estimates astrometric errors. Our constraints on the orbit of β Pic b firmly rule out the possibility of a transit of the planet at 10-σ significance. However, we confirm that the Hill sphere of β Pic b will transit, giving us a rare chance to probe the circumplanetary environment of a young, evolving exoplanet. As a result, we provide an ephemeris for photometric monitoring of the Hill sphere transit event, which will begin at the start of April in 2017 and finish at the end of January in 2018.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Identification of system, observer, and controller from closed-loop experimental data

This paper considers the identification problem of a system operating in closed-loop with an existing feedback controller. The closed-loop system is excited by a known excitation signal, and the resulting time histories of the closed-loop system response and the feedback signal are measured. From the time history data, the algorithm computes the Markov parameters of a closed-loop observer, from which the Markov parameters of the individual open-loop plant, observer, and controller are recovered. A state space model of the open-loop plant and the gain matrices for the controller and the observer are then realized. The results of the paper are demonstrated by an example using actual aircraft flutter test data.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗