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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

New Air- and Water-Resistive Barriers -– Technology Verification

Infiltration and exfiltration are among the largest envelope-related contributors to the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads in commercial buildings. Air leakage is responsible for about 6% of the total energy used by the commercial building sector. New air sealing technologies have recently emerged that aim to improve the performance of air barrier systems by simplifying their installation procedure. These include the 3M 3015 primer-less self-adhered membrane, 3M 3015VP vapor permeable primer-less self-adhered membrane, and 3M 2085VP vapor permeable fluid-applied air barrier membrane. ORNL verified the performance of the 3M 3015, 3015VP and 2085VP air- and water- resistive barriers by conducting two field studies. The first one involved side-by-side evaluations in eight unoccupied test facilities in Cottage Grove, MN, that included the 3M membranes and commonly used air barrier materials such as a self-adhered membrane with primer and a mechanically-fastened membrane with taped joints. The facilities were monitored for 24 months and the collected data were used to calibrate simulation models that in turn were employed to calculate energy consumption and savings because of improvements in airtightness. After two years, results indicate that the test facilities with the new 3M technologies had leakage rates that were slightly lower than the buildings with traditional air barrier materials. The calibrated model for the test facility with the 3M 3015 membrane was used to calculate energy savings due to improved airtightness when compared to a building without an air barrier. Findings suggest that a building in Minneapolis, MN, or Fairbanks, AK, that has a properly installed air barrier system can have annual HVAC electricity use that is about 36% lower than if the building did not have an air barrier. Similarly, decreases in natural gas use can be about 25%. The second field evaluation involved the LifeSource building in Minneapolis, MN, and the Sierra Trading Post building in Woodbury, MN. Both of these were recently completed and use the 3M 3015 and 3015VP membranes as their air- and water- resistive barriers, respectively. Blower door test results show that LifeSource has an average air leakage rate of 0.06 cfm/ft 2 at 75 Pa, or 85% lower than the 0.4 cfm/ft 2 at 75 Pa specified in the 2015 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). The leakage rate in the Sierra building is 0.15 cfm/ft 2 at 75 Pa or 63% than the IECC value. According to simulation results, LifeSource lowered its annual heating and cooling cost by about $\$$4600 or 10% when compared to a similar building that lacked an air barrier system. In the case of the Sierra building, savings were $5,900 or 41%. These field evaluations serve as examples of the level of building envelope airtightness that can be achieved by using air barrier materials that are properly installed, and illustrate the energy and financial savings that building envelopes with low air leakage rates could attain.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting equilibrium states with Reynolds stress closures in channel flow and homogeneous shear flow

Turbulent channel flow and homogeneous shear flow have served as basic building block flows for the testing and calibration of Reynolds stress models. A direct theoretical connection is made between homogeneous shear flow in equilibrium and the log-layer of fully-developed turbulent channel flow. It is shown that if a second-order closure model is calibrated to yield good equilibrium values for homogeneous shear flow it will also yield good results for the log-layer of channel flow provided that the Rotta coefficient is not too far removed from one. Most of the commonly used second-order closure models introduce an ad hoc wall reflection term in order to mask deficient predictions for the log-layer of channel flow that arise either from an inaccurate calibration of homogeneous shear flow or from the use of a Rotta coefficient that is too large. Illustrative model calculations are presented to demonstrate this point which has important implications for turbulence modeling.

Abid, R.↗

Predicting equilibrium states with Reynolds stress closures in channel flow and homogeneous shear flow

Turbulent channel flow and homogeneous shear flow have served as basic building block flows for the testing and calibration of Reynolds stress models. A direct theoretical connection is made between homogeneous shear flow in equilibrium and the log-layer of fully-developed turbulent channel flow. It is shown that if a second-order closure model is calibrated to yield good equilibrium values for homogeneous shear flow it will also yield good results for the log-layer of channel flow provided that the Rotta coefficient is not too far removed from one. Most of the commonly used second-order closure models introduce an ad hoc wall reflection term in order to mask deficient predictions for the log-layer of channel flow that arise either from an inaccurate calibration of homogeneous shear flow or from the use of a Rotta coefficient that is too large. Illustrative model calculations are presented to demonstrate this point which has important implications for turbulence modeling.

Abid, R.↗

FY 2017 Modeling of the M8 Calibration Series using MAMMOTH

This report provides an overview of the modeling efforts performed in FY17 to validate MAMMOTH using historical TREAT data. The data for comparison comes from the M8 series of calibration measurements, which was the last series performed before TREAT was shut down in 1994. The data set includes: an experiment flux profile; low level steady state power coupling factors for flux wires and fuel pins; and a temperature limited transient. MAMMOTH was able to obtain reasonable results for all cases with the exception of the H91-8-1 flux wire. Because of issues encountered in determination of biases introduced in measurement of power coupling factors, there was insufficient time to model the fuel pins in MAMMOTH. However, the feasibility of doing so was demonstrated with the flux wire calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Reinvestigation into Closure Predictions of Room D at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Room D was an in-situ, isothermal, underground experiment conducted at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1984 and 1991. The room was carefully instrumented to measure the horizontal and vertical closure immediately upon excavation and for several years thereafter. Early finite element simulations of salt creep around Room D under-predicted the vertical closure by 4.5×, causing investigators to explore a series of changes to the way Room D was modeled. Discrepancies between simulations and measurements were resolved through a series of adjustments to model parameters, which were openly acknowledged in published reports. Interest in Room D has been rekindled recently by the U.S./German Joint Project III and Project WEIMOS, which seek to improve the predictions of rock salt constitutive models. Joint Project participants calibrate their models solely against laboratory tests, and benchmark the models against underground experiments, such as room D. This report describes updating legacy Room D simulations to today’s computational standards by rectifying several numerical issues. Subsequently, the constitutive model used in previous modeling is recalibrated two different ways against a suite of new laboratory creep experiments on salt extracted from the repository horizon of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Simulations with the new, laboratory-based, calibrations under-predict Room D vertical closure by 3.1×. A list of potential improvements is discussed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impact of the Timing of a SAR Image Acquisition on the Calibration of a Flood Inundation Model

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data have proven to be a very useful source of information for the calibration of flood inundation models. Previous studies have focused on assigning uncertainties to SAR images in order to improve flood forecast systems (e.g. Giustarini et al. (2015) and Stephens et al. (2012)). This paper investigates whether the timing of a SAR acquisition of a flood has an important impact on the calibration of a flood inundation model. As no suitable time series of SAR data exists, we generate a sequence of consistent SAR images through the use of a synthetic framework. This framework uses two available ERS-2 SAR images of the study area, one taken during the flood event of interest, the second taken during a dry reference period. The obtained synthetic observations at different points in time during the flood event are used to calibrate the flood inundation model. The results of this study indicate that the uncertainty of the roughness parameters is lower when the model is calibrated with an image taken before rather than during or after the flood peak. The results also show that the error on the modeled extent is much lower when the model is calibrated with a pre-flood peak image than when calibrated with a near-flood peak or a post-flood peak image. It is concluded that the timing of the SAR image acquisition of the flood has a clear impact on the model calibration and consequently on the precision of the predicted flood extent.

Flood inundation↗

Toward a Self-calibrating, Empirical, Light-weight Model for Tellurics in High-resolution Spectra

To discover Earth analogs around other stars, next generation spectrographs must measure radial velocity with 10 cm s{sup −1} precision. Since even microtellurics can induce RV errors of up to 50 cm s{sup −1}, achieving 10 cm s{sup −1} precision requires precise modeling of telluric absorption features. The standard approaches to telluric modeling are (a) observing a standard star and (b) using a radiative transfer code. Observing standard stars, however, takes valuable observing time away from science targets. Radiative transfer codes, meanwhile, may omit microtelluric features, which are an important contributor to the RV error budget at 10 cm s{sup −1}. To address these issues, we present a telluric model of the self-calibrating, empirical, light-weight linear regression telluric (SELENITE) model for high-resolution spectra. The model exploits two simple observations: (a) water tellurics grow proportionally to precipitable water vapor and therefore proportionally to each other and (b) non-water tellurics grow proportionally to airmass. Water tellurics can be identified by looking for pixels whose growth correlates with a known calibration water telluric and modeled by regression against it, and likewise non-water tellurics with airmass. The model does not require line data, water vapor measurements, or additional observations (beyond one-time calibration observations), achieves fits with a χ{sub red}{sup 2} of 1.17 on B stars and 2.95 on K dwarfs, and leaves residuals of 1% (B stars) and 1.1% (K dwarfs) of continuum. Fitting takes seconds on laptop PCs; SELENITE is light-weight enough to guide observing runs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A new global ionospheric model

A new global ionospheric model has been successfully implemented. The daytime portion of this model provides one-way ionospheric range corrections that compare favorably with those derived from the Mariner Venus Mercury (MVM'73) S- and X-band dual frequency doppler data. For elevation angles, γ, higher than 30 deg and solar zenith angle, X, less than 80 deg, this model provides calibrations accurate to a few centimeters. The calibrations provided by the nighttime model are also very reasonable. These, however, will have to be compared with the S/X data from Viking ‘75 for final confirmation. It is interesting to note that the daytime ionospheric calibrations derived from the current calibration scheme, DIEN/TIEN, are fairly close to those given by the new global model, especially in the temporal variations and thus the doppler effects. In the daytime and for γ ≳ 30 deg and X < 80 deg, the calibrations from the two models agree almost exactly. However, for situations when γ is below 30 deg and X is larger than 80 deg simultaneously, as much as 12% (~70 cm, typically) improvement of the new model over DIEN/TIEN results. The comparison between the nighttime model and DIEN/TIEN has been based on the one-way ionospheric range corrections for three passes near the Mariner 9 encounter with Mars in 1971 tracked at Goldstone. It is found that they can differ by over 30% (typically 20 cm). As mentioned, the confirmation of these nighttime calibrations awaits the availability of the Viking S/X dual frequency doppler data. Finally, the ionospheric calibration effects on orbit determination provided by DIEN/TIEN, the global model, and the S/X data will be intercompared during the Viking Mission.

K. W. Yip↗

Efficient calibration for imperfect computer models

Many computer models contain unknown parameters which need to be estimated using physical observations. Furthermore, the calibration method based on Gaussian process models may lead to unreasonable estimate for imperfect computer models. In this work, we extend their study to calibration problems with stochastic physical data. We propose a novel method, called the L 2 calibration, and show its semiparametric efficiency. The conventional method of the ordinary least squares is also studied. Theoretical analysis shows that it is consistent but not efficient. Here, numerical examples show that the proposed method outperforms the existing ones.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

data mining↗

Big Data Mining for Applied Energy Savings in Buildings

Residential and commercial buildings in China, India, the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), and Italy consume 39-45% of each nation's primary energy (approximately 73% of electricity). Building energy models can be used to automatically optimize the return-on-investment for retrofits to improve a building’s energy efficiency. However, with an average of 3,000 building descriptors necessary to accurately simulate a single building, there is a market need to reduce the transaction cost for creating a simulatable model for every building in a city and calibrate the models to utility data prior to capital expenditures. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has utilized two of the world’s fastest supercomputers, assembled unique datasets, and developed innovative algorithms for big data mining to produce the Automatic detection and creation of Building Energy Models (AutoBEM) technology for urban-scale energy modeling. The project developed the world’s most accurate method for determining building footprints from satellite imagery and the world’s fastest building energy model generator. The team has also leveraged a total of eight supercomputers to analyze the best methods, metrics, and algorithms for calibrating building models to measured data within 4% of hourly electricity use; well beyond current industry standards necessary for private-sector financing. The project developed the world’s fastest buildings simulator, over 8 million simulations totaling over 200TB, and mined this data with over 130,000 parallel artificial intelligence algorithmic instances to develop the world’s best calibration algorithm in terms of accuracy, runtime, and robustness.

New, Joshua↗

Calibration of a fuel relocation model in BISON

We demonstrate parameter calibration in the context of the BISON nuclear fuels performance analysis code. Specifically, we present the calibration of a parameter governing fuel relocation: the power level at which the relocation model is activated. This relocation activation parameter is a critical value in obtaining reasonable comparison with fuel centerline temperature measurements. It also is the subject of some debate in terms of the optimal values. We show that the optimal value does vary across the calibration to individual rods. We also demonstrate an aggregated calibration, where we calibrate to observations from six rods. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Reinvestigation into Closure Predictions of Room D at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Room D was an in-situ, isothermal, underground experiment conducted at theWaste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1984 and 1991. The room was carefully instrumented to measure the horizontal and vertical closure immediately upon excavation and for several years thereafter. Early finite element simulations of salt creep around Room D under predicted the vertical closure by 4.5×, causing investigators to explore a series of changes to the way Room D was modeled. Discrepancies between simulations and measurements were resolved through a series of adjustments to model parameters, which were openly acknowledged in published reports. Interest in Room D has been rekindled recently by the U.S./German Joint Project III and Project WEIMOS, which seek to improve the predictions of rock salt constitutive models. Joint Project participants calibrate their models solely against laboratory tests, and benchmark the models against underground experiments, such as room D. This report describes updating legacy Room D simulations to today’s computational standards by rectifying several numerical issues. Subsequently, the constitutive model used in previous modeling is recalibrated two different ways against a suite of new laboratory creep experiments on salt extracted from the repository horizon of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Simulations with the new, laboratory-based, calibrations under predict Room D vertical closure by 3.1×. A list of potential improvements is discussed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

From Well Log to Formation Model: A Novel Laboratory Calibrated Methodology with Demonstration

This work demonstrates how the characterization and modeling of both elastic and creep properties are essential to describe zones in layered rock formations as either low-stress targets for stimulation or high-stress barriers to fracture growth. Prediction of fracture height is critical for designing stimulation operations in oil and gas wells. Ideally, fractures are placed in target zones which will produce hydrocarbons and should not propagate into zones expected to be unproductive or to produce unwanted fluids such as water which in turn must be treated and/or disposed. The essential task in designing stimulation plans is predicting which zones have low horizontal stresses and which will be high-stress barriers to fracture growth. Despite this importance, there are gaps in current knowledge and a complete workflow from laboratory characterization to a finite element model which includes time dependent rock deformation is required. While the research and methodology presented here also have application to CO 2or hydrogen storage, wastewater injection, and geothermal applications, the focus will be on hydrocarbon extraction. This thesis presents the results of a characterization-to-prediction workflow for the Caney shale, which is an emerging hydrocarbon resource in Oklahoma, USA. It begins with an investigation to enable critical evaluation of the Caney zonation into nominally “brittle” and “ductile” zones based on properties observed from well logs. It shows none of the zones are consistently “brittle” or “ductile” mechanical behavior based on the variety of definitions of these terms. However, the nominally ductile zones are weaker and more prone to creep. A laboratory investigation of samples including strength, elastic, and creep properties, is then used in a finite element model of stress evolution. The model includes both elastic deformation and viscoplastic creep. Results predict the least creep-prone layers to have the lowest horizontal stresses, therefore comprising hydraulic fracturing targets. The most creep-prone layers attain a horizontal stress similar to the vertical stress and therefore are predicted to be high stress barriers to hydraulic fracture stimulation. In addition to defining stimulation target intervals, the model shows how as tectonic strain rate increases, there is a transition from creep-dominated stresses to stresses dominated by elasticity.

Benge, Margaret↗

High-accuracy waveforms for black hole-neutron star systems with spinning black holes

The availability of accurate numerical waveforms is an important requirement for the creation and calibration of reliable waveform models for gravitational wave astrophysics. For black hole-neutron star binaries, very few accurate waveforms are however publicly available. Most recent models are calibrated to a large number of older simulations with good parameter space coverage for low-spin non-precessing binaries but limited accuracy, and a much smaller number of longer, more recent simulations limited to non-spinning black holes. In this paper, we present long, accurate numerical waveforms for three new systems that include rapidly spinning black holes, and one precessing configuration. Here, we study in detail the accuracy of the simulations, and in particular perform for the first time in the context of BHNS binaries a detailed comparison of waveform extrapolation methods to the results of Cauchy Characteristic Extraction. The new waveforms have <0.1rad phase errors during inspiral, rising to ~(0.2-0.4)rad errors at merger, and ≲1% error in their amplitude. We compute the faithfulness of recent analytical models to these numerical results, and find that models specifically designed for BHNS binaries perform well (F>0.99) for binaries seen face-on. For edge-on observations, particularly for precessing systems, disagreements between models and simulations increase, and models that include precession and/or higher-order modes start to perform better than BHNS models that currently lack these features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Are Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration Models Reliable Across South American Ecoregions?

Many remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (RSBET) algorithms have been proposed in the past decades and evaluated using flux tower data, mainly over North America and Europe. Model evaluation across South America has been done locally or using only a single algorithm at a time. Here, in this work, we provide the first evaluation of multiple RSBET models, at a daily scale, across a wide variety of biomes, climate zones, and land uses in South America. We used meteorological data from 25 flux towers to force four RSBET models: Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), Penman–Monteith Mu model (PM-MOD), and Penman–Monteith Nagler model (PM-VI). ET was predicted satisfactorily by all four models, with correlations consistently higher (R 2 > 6) for GLEAM and PT-JPL, and PM-MOD and PM-VI presenting overall better responses in terms of percent bias (-10 < PBIAS < 10%). As for PM-VI, this outcome is expected, given that the model requires calibration with local data. Model skill seems to be unrelated to land-use but instead presented some dependency on biome and climate, with the models producing the best results for wet to moderately wet environments. Our findings show the suitability of individual models for a number of combinations of land cover types, biomes, and climates. At the same time, no model outperformed the others for all conditions, which emphasizes the need for adapting individual algorithms to take into account intrinsic characteristics of climates and ecosystems in South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗