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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Development of a Multi-physics Model to Optimize Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) for Additive Manufacturing (Carbon3D HPC4Mfg Final Report)

Continuous Liquid Interface Production (CLIP) is poised to bring additive manufacturing to multiple American manufacturing sectors owing to its unique combination of rapid print speeds and material options that resemble injection molding thermoplastics. In spite of these benefits, CLIP is still a maturing process. To improve our understanding and control of the process, this project developed a multi-physics computational model that encompasses the coupled chemical-physical processes of photopolymerization and fluid flow to predict part outcomes. A physically predictive model can enable rapid optimization of CLIP and reduce the current cycle time and waste associated with optimization by four-fold. Ultimately, this effort will help open the U.S. $400B plastic manufacturing industry to the key benefits of additive manufacturing, namely mass customization, unlimited design space, and a cost- and energy-effective path to mainstream manufacturing. In the course of the project we produced a model which coupled fluid-flow, species transport, and photochemistry to model the Carbon CLIP process. As the development proceeded, we validated the code against theory and experiments. The resulting code was transferred to Carbon, and we expect it to be a useful part of their modeling capability. Future work includes improvements to the fluid solver’s robustness and performance, along with the addition of additional physics models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using Machine Learning to Identify Optimum Prospects for Offshore Geologic CO 2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in the Gulf of Mexico

The SECARB Offshore Partnership is a government-industry partnership focused on assembling the knowledge base required for secure, long-term, large-scale CO 2 subsea storage in saline formations and mature oil reservoirs. The SECARB Offshore Partnership is evaluating potential storage opportunities in the Central and Eastern planning areas of the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the Gulf of Mexico. The evaluation focuses on active and depleted oil and gas fields and potentially associated CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR), as well as, deep saline storage resources. As part of Subtask 3.0 (Offshore Storage Resources Characterization) and Subtask 4.0 (Risk Assessment, Simulation, and Modeling), Oklahoma State University (OSU) is developing a machine learning system that employs the SAS Institute’s Viya platform with visual data mining and machine learning to identify and characterize optimum prospects for enhanced oil recovery and stacked storage in saline reservoirs. This report summarizes this effort to date and discusses the many variables that can be used to characterize these storage objectives, as well as, the design vision of the Viya machine learning system.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Evolution of Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning at MESA

Early on in 2018 Sandia recognized the Microsystems Engineering, Science and Applications (MESA) Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability to be unpredictable, inconsistent, reactive, and unable to provide strong linkage to the sponsor's needs. The impetus for this report is to share learnings from MESA's journey towards maturing this capability. This report describes re-building the foundational elements of MESA's Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability using a risk-based, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. To begin, MESA's decades-old Piano Chart + Ad Hoc Hybrid Methodology is described with a narrative of its strengths and weaknesses. Then its replacement, the MCDA /Analytical Hierarchy Process, is introduced with a discussion of its strengths and weaknesses. To generate a realistic Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning budget outlook, MESA used its rolling 20-year Extended Life Program Plan (MELPP) as a baseline. The new MCDA risk-based prioritization methodology implements DOE/NNSA guidelines for prioritization of DOE activities and provides a reliable, structured framework for combining expert judgement and stakeholder preferences according to an established scientific technique. An in-house Hybrid Decision Support System (HDSS) software application was developed to facilitate production of several key deliverables. The application enables analysis of the prioritization decisions with charts to display and provide linkage of MESA's funding requests to the stakeholders' priorities, strategic objectives, nuclear deterrence programs, MESA priorities, and much more.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impacts of LEU+ and ATF on Fresh Fuel Storage Criticality Safety

The use of increased fuel enrichment, which is still in the realm of low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel, has been of interest to commercial light water reactor operators as part of the next iteration in fuel cycle technological advances and research and development. Using increased enrichment fuel, or high-assay LEU (HALEU), in power plants has clear benefits for being able to load cores with additional power-producing fuel. Although HALEU enrichments can range up to 20%, the more guarded approach of investigating enrichments above current fuels within 10% enrichment is referred to as LEU plus (LEU+) to reflect the less drastic change in operating conditions and requirements and similarity to current fuel cycles. Of additional interest and increasing maturity is the incorporation of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts, which are also applicable to the current fleet. This class of technologies involves changes such as cladding (e.g., chromium coating or FeCrAl) and fuel composition (e.g., chromia dopant) alterations to demonstrate improved fuel performance under accident scenarios. The ability to properly store fuel before and after residence time in the reactor is crucial to plant operation. Typically, this is done in either a new fuel vault (NFV) or spent fuel pool (SFP). Storing, loading, and unloading dozens of fuel assemblies within the same general area provides opportunities for obvious criticality concerns. These concerns are addressed with regulations to the subcriticality margin that the NFV and SFP must maintain in certain conditions. Adopting LEU+ fuel results in inherent reactivity increases, which are extremely relevant for safe fuel storage. Therefore, a clear understanding of the effects of LEU+ fuel and ATF on criticality safety margins to regulatory limits is required, as well as an understanding of the degree of absorber crediting under normal and accident conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Applied ML Needs in Uncrewed Aerial Systems [Slides]

We have an urgent need to optimize data analyses and UAS operations to better position its use in sensitive and high-consequence national security applications. LANL has a mature, robust, and multidisciplinary UAS deployment capability with proficiency in single and multi-modal data acquisition for signature detection.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mid Infra-Red Laser Sensor for Continuous Sulfur Trioxide Monitoring to Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance during Flexible Operations

During the course of this project, we performed exhaustive research and development of SO3/H2SO4 sensing technology for coal-fired power plant applications (Figure 1). The development culminated in a successful field campaign of a prototype continuous real-time H2SO4 monitor at a coal-fired power plant (TRL 6) accomplishing the primary goal of the project. The developed sensors utilize tunable laser absorption spectroscopy (TLAS) operating in the mid-infrared (Mid-IR) wavelength region, which is the so-called “molecular fingerprint” region. Systems operating in the Mid-IR have orders of magnitude more sensitivity than systems operating at shorter wavelengths, such as near-infrared (NIR). However, NIR systems are more widespread due to more mature supporting technology (e.g., fiber optics, optical components, etc.). In this project, we not only produced a specific Mid-IR sensor, we also advanced Mid-IR sensor technology in general through the development and demonstration of such supporting technology. In this project, we also developed proprietary broad tuning lasers enabling the ability to effectively measure SO3, H2SO4, H2O, and SO2. Different molecular species have unique spectral signatures that can be probed with lasers operating at different wavelengths. Standard TLAS uses relatively narrow wavelength tuning distributed feedback (DFB) lasers, which can typically only target a single species with narrow features, and are not appropriate for species with broad features, such as SO3 or H2SO4. In contrast, by developing unique, broad-tuning laser technology, we were able to measure these species, as well as SO2 and H2O simultaneously. Furthermore, to enable real-time analysis at a power plant, we modified a commercially available heated gas cell to operate in the Mid-IR wavelength range and fiber coupled the lasers to enable remote delivery of the beams. To generate reference data (library spectra), our collaborators at the University of California Irvine (UCI) developed a catalytic SO3 generation facility. It is worth mentioning that representative H2SO4 and SO3 Mid-IR spectra are not a part of any publicly available database and the data generated under this project is a valuable resource in and of itself. In addition, based on the UCI study we determined that detection of SO3 is complicated by the very strong SO2 absorption. For that reason, we concentrated on H2SO4 detection. Since SO3 and H2SO4 exist in a flue gas in a state of equilibrium, which depends on temperature and humidity, by measuring water concentration and controlling the temperature of the gas cell, we developed an approach to determine SO3 concentration from the H2SO4 measurement. During the development phase of the project, we performed three testing campaigns at our collaborator’s FERCo flue gas facility with conditions representative of the coal-fired power plant (~ 40ppm SO3, 1700ppm to 2800 ppm SO2, 10% water) with the exception of particulate matter. After three test campaigns at FERCo we performed field testing at Harrison Power Station. The final system was mounted on a duct and measured H2SO4, SO2 and water. The tests were highly successful with a demonstrated real-time H2SO4 precision of 1 ppm with a 1 second update. Our collaborators at EPRI conducted an industry survey and determined that there is a very high interest for the SO3/H2SO4 monitoring in the power generation industry as well as in heavy industries in general. Furthermore, work performed by OptoKnowledge beyond the scope of this project under a synergistic DOE SBIR determined another approach to SO3 detection. We applied for Phase II on this SBIR for development a of versatile SO3/H2SO4 sensor but were not selected. We are currently looking for another opportunity to leverage all the technological advancements produced by this project including but not limited to the flue gas facility at UCI, the hardware and software developed, and relationships with FERCo, EPRI CEMTEK, and Harrison Station.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility Activities: FY2020 Progress

This report describes the credibility activities undertaken in support of Gemma code development in FY20, which include Verification & Validation (V&V), Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and Credibility process application. The main goal of these activities is to establish capabilities and process frameworks that can be more broadly applied to new and more advanced problems as the Gemma code development effort matures. This will provide Gemma developers and analysts with the tools needed to generate credibility evidence in support of Gemma predictions for future use cases. The FY20 Gemma V&V/UQ/Credibility activities described in this report include experimental uncertainty analysis, the development and use of methods for optimal design of computer experiments, and the development of a framework for validation. These initial activities supported the development of broader credibility planning for Gemma that continued into FY21.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simplified High-Temperature Molten Salt CSP Plant Preconceptual Design

State of the art concentrating solar power plants generally rely on a two-tank system with a large central tower. These plants employ nitrate salts that are limited to approximately 565°C in practice. A novel system arrangement is proposed using molten salt as the heat transfer and energy storage media in a single thermocline storage tank with an integral heat exchanger to the power cycle. The system has unique features that enable temperatures higher than 565°C while reducing costs. This study explores the considerations for the concept and presents a preconceptual point design for a 5 MWt system capable of generating 100 MWt per day with 12 hours of thermal energy storage. This study also examines the potential operation of the system with nitrate and higher temperature chloride salts. Both salt systems appear promising and future concept maturation is recommended.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Disorder, interactions, and their interplay in novel narrow-gap Dirac materials and Weyl semimetals

Progress of the modern day condensed matter physics is to a large extent driven by the synthesis of new materials, advances in their experimental characterization and theoretical description. Recent discoveries of novel gapless Weyl semimetals, such as NaBi,CdAs, and BiTe-based films, in which magnetic dopants essentially suppress the gap, have added to the family of graphene and topological insulators actively investigated over the past decade. With the field of novel semimetals rapidly maturing, its focus necessarily shifts from demonstrations of the feasibility of such materials to their quantitative characterization. While the transport and optical properties of graphene and topological insulators are well captured within the picture of free non-interacting electrons, gapless 3D Weyl semimetals and narrow-gap 2D semiconductors with Dirac spectrum are known to be extremely susceptible to disorder and electron-electron interactions. This susceptibility obscures the manifestations of nontrivial band structure -- like quantum anomalous Hall effect -- of the new topological materials. Among particular projects to be addressed are: 1) optical conductivity of 3D gapless Dirac fermions in the presence of smooth disorder, 2) interplay of disorder and Coulomb interactions in the spectral properties of such fermions, 3) formation and structure of the impurity band with Coulomb supercritical clusters, 4) Coulomb interaction-driven renormalization of the electron spectrum and of the transport response in the presence of strong magnetic field, 5) instanton approach to the disorder-induced fluctuation states in zero-gap 3D materials, and 6) the role of disorder in quantum anomalous Hall effect. The proposal relies upon the investigators' previous broad expertise in interacting and disordered electron systems. The methods to be employed include perturbative diagrammatic technique, non-perturbative instanton and self-consistent approximations, hydrodynamics of electron liquid. Both analytical as well as numerical approaches are to be employed. The anticipated broader outcome of the proposal includes gaining an in-depth understanding of the interplay of the disorder and interactions under the conditions when this interplay has the most dramatic impact on observables. Traditionally, interaction effects are among the most challenging and interesting problems of condensed matter physics. Similarly, disordered systems typically present very difficult but extremely rich problems in the description of various materials. Importantly, understanding the spectral and transport properties of such materials not only presents the fundamental objective, but is also of particular interest for many applications, such as computation, memory, optics, plasmonics. In particular realization of the quantum anomalous Hall effect may lead to the development of low-power-consumption electronics. Indeed, a major constraint for practical use of the quantum Hall effect is limited by the requirement of the quantizing magnetic field. At the same time, the quantum anomalous Hall effect samples exhibit non-dissipative edge quantum transport in a zero magnetic field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Detectors and Instrumentation [Slides]

D&I targets diagnostic maturation and development for subcritical and hydrodynamic experiments 2 to 5 years into the future. Key technology areas include imaging, detectors, instruments and control systems. Most of the work scope is funded from Stockpile Stewardship’s Hydrodynamic and Subcritical Experiment Execution Support (HSEES) portfolio.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Wind Energy Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The Wind Energy Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment finds that the U.S. wind supply chain is nascent for offshore wind and mature for land-based wind, but U.S. competitiveness is declining in key wind turbine components. Continued decarbonization of the U.S. grid and economy with domestically supplied wind technology will require innovation to increase U.S. manufacturing competitiveness; investment in logistics and infrastructure, such as offshore wind ports and vessels; and policies to provide a strong and stable demand signal to support accelerated investment in the wind supply chain.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Electrification of Boilers in U.S. Manufacturing

Decarbonization of the industrial heat demand through electrification where low/no-carbon electricity is used can contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction. In U.S. manufacturing, thermal processes account for approximately 75% of the total final energy demand, of which nearly 17% was consumed by conventional industrial boilers for steam generation in 2018 (this does not include boilers for combined heat and power – CHP). Steam is generally used in industry to regulate temperatures and pressures in industrial processes, dry products, strip impurities from process fluids, etc. Although all kinds of energy sources such as fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear, and electricity can generate steam, fossil fuels’-fired boilers are dominant in U.S. manufacturing. Electric boilers, which are a mature technology, have a small market share for steam generation in the global and U.S. industry (approximately 2% in U.S. manufacturing) due to several techno-economic reasons.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modular, Crushed-Rock Thermal Energy Storage Pilot Design (Final Report)

The goal of this project was to design a next-step pilot to advance near-term energy storage integrated with a fossil plant to provide a facility capable of being viable and effective in a market with growing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). Thermal energy storage (TES) represents an ideal technology for this purpose. The completed effort included a feasibility study to prepare for the Phase II pre-front end engineering design (pre-FEED) for implementing a crushed-rock TES system integrated with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The crushed rock storage technology, which is being developed by Brenmiller Energy, is a modular TES system termed bGen™, which can accommodate both thermal and electrical inputs and output steam, hot water, or hot air. For this application, the estimated efficiency is 80% thermal to thermal. For the feasibility study, the Brenmiller technology was designed to operate on a slipstream from NYPA’s Eugene W. Zeltmann Power Project (Zeltmann) NGCC plant in Astoria, New York. The projected size of the system will be up to 4 MWe with at least 4 hours of storage duration, or 16 MWh-e total. The study also included a techno-economic evaluation of a 200 MWh commercial-scale demonstration. Prior to this project, EPRI had reviewed Brenmiller’s technology, which is being built to demonstrate bGen™ at 1.7 MWe on a solar plant (Rotem) and has been designed for an NGCC facility in Italy, assessing it at technology readiness level (TRL) 5. Brenmiller is also conducting a separate 1-MWth pilot with NYPA that pairs a bGen™ module with a microturbine for a combined-heat-and-power (CHP) application to improve efficiency and provide flexibility. The next-step pilot being designed as part of this project would represent a 5-fold increase in scale, versus Rotem, and would show the technology’s ability to provide effective and economical energy storage, bringing the technology to TRL 6. This pilot would represent the next-to-last demonstration scale before the technology could be commercial ready at GWh-e scales in the 2030 timeframe. The main objective of the work completed by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), Brenmiller Energy (Brenmiller), New York Power Authority (NYPA), and United E&C (formerly AECOM) was to perform a Phase I feasibility study on the integration of a crushed-rock thermal energy storage (TES) with a fossil plant. Under this project, the EPRI-led team successfully completed a feasibility study to prepare for the potential future Phase II pre-front end engineering design (pre-FEED) to implement a crushed-rock TES system integrated with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. Specific deliverables under this project included the Technology Maturation Plan, Conceptual Study, Techno-Economic Assessment, Technology Gap Assessment, Project Plan for Phase II (submitted as Phase II Renewal Application), Commercialization Plan, and the Final Report (this document). This Final Report includes a compilation of the various summary reports that were prepared during the 12-month schedule of the Phase I project execution under award DE-FE0032017.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Machine Learning into a Methodology for Early Detection of Wellbore Failure [Slides]

Approximately 93% of US total energy supply is dependent on wellbores in some form. The industry will drill more wells in next ten years than in the last 100 years (King, 2014). Global well population is around 1.8 million of which approximately 35% has some signs of leakage (i.e. sustained casing pressure). Around 5% of offshore oil and gas wells “fail” early, more with age and most with maturity. 8.9% of “shale gas” wells in the Marcellus play have experienced failure (120 out of 1,346 wells drilled in 2012) (Ingraffea et al., 2014). Current methods for identifying wells that are at highest priority for increased monitoring and/or at highest risk for failure consists of “hand” analysis of multi-arm caliper (MAC) well logging data and geomechanical models. Machine learning (ML) methods are of interest to explore feasibility for increasing analysis efficiency and/or enhanced detection of precursors to failure (e.g. deformations). MAC datasets used to train ML algorithms and preliminary tests were run for “predicting” casing collar locations and performed above 90% in classification and identifying of casing collar locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗