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DOE OSTI2025

Seismic DAS Observations of a large underground chemical explosion in dry tuff

On 18 October 2023 a 16.3-ton TNT equivalent chemical explosion was detonated underground at the Nevada National Security Site, generating a seismic event (Meyers et al., 2024). The associated seismic wavefield was measured on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array with slant range distances from 27 m – 1123 m. The first arriving phase traveled at an apparent velocity of about 2640 m s -1 from 27 m to 420 m slant range and about 2470 m s -1 from 505 m to 1123 m slant range according to the first arrival moveouts on the DAS data. The first arrival from the explosion temporarily saturated the cable from a slant range of 27 m – 186 m and 0.009 s to 0.084 s post detonation. From 186 m slant range to 420 m slant range, peak strain rates of 5.6 x 10 6 nm m -1 s -1 were observed for the first arrival phase. For the first arrival from 505 m slant range to 1123 m slant range, peak strain rates reduced to 8.0 x 10 4 nm m -1 s -1 . A comparison of the scaled accelerations computed from DAS, the geophone pairs, and the measurements of co-located accelerometer pairs show common agreement at the scaled ranges of the single point sensors. This study adds to the body of work reporting near-source DAS observations of the seismic wavefields generated by underground chemical explosions. These results indicate that near-source DAS observations can refine interpretations of phase identification from single-point sensor observations. Phase identification could be one mechanism that contributes scatter to single point seismic measurements which would confound the performance of empirical relationships for small explosions. Removing that mechanism may therefore reduce interstation variability and increase empirical relationship performance for small explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tail Dependence as a Measure of Teleconnected Warm and Cold Extremes of North American Wintertime Temperatures

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature ( T 2m ) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T 2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. Further, the estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drop Analysis of a Department of Energy Standard Canister Containing Fort Saint Vrain SNF– 24138

DOE manages over 300 types of SNF, many of which are located at the INL site. Managing this large variety of SNF for storage, transportation, and disposal poses a challenge to DOE. The Idaho Cleanup Project and INL are collaborating on the DOE SNF Road-Ready Demonstration (“Road-Ready Demonstration”), which will develop and demonstrate the designs, technology, processes, and regulatory framework for packaging DOE-managed SNF for “road-ready dry storage.” Road-ready dry storage (RRDS) is an SNF management concept in which SNF is packaged into dry, sealed canisters that are then placed in on-site storage in anticipation of later transport and disposition. The forward-looking goal of the Road-Ready Demonstration is to establish the foundation for a large-scale RRDS program at the INL site. One critical aspect of RRDS is the ability to certify the DOE Standard Canister and its associated transportation package in accordance with 10 CFR 71 for offsite transportation. Depending on the SNF type and transportation strategy, DOE Standard Canisters may be required to maintain structural integrity under hypothetical accident scenarios (e.g., drop events). The DOE Standard Canisters have been tested and analyzed under various SNF loading configurations and accident drop events in support of the Idaho Spent Fuel Facility and other DOE programs; however, no analysis has yet been completed in support of the recently initiated Road-Ready Demonstration. This paper presents preliminary results from a finite element analysis of the Ø45.7 cm × 4.6 m (Ø18 in. × 15 ft) DOE Standard Canister under the 9 m drop at 80 degrees off-vertical drop scenario considered in previous INL tests and analyses. It considers the Fort St. Vrain spent nuclear fuel loading configuration proposed for the Road-Ready Demonstration, uses updated material properties, and applies the strain-based acceptance criteria established in ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code’s Section III, Division 3 rules for storage and transportation spent nuclear fuel containments. This updated analysis is compared to previous DOE Standard Canister drop analyses. Preliminary results from the updated analysis show that certain regions of the containment exceed the allowable limits during the accidental drop event. However, these regions are limited to components performing a non-structural function. While further work on this analysis will be pursued, this analysis serves as the foundation for formal calculations used to support applicable certification efforts of the RRDS system at INL.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drop Analysis of a Department of Energy Standard Canister Containing Fort Saint Vrain SNF

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tri-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding Using Spectral Clustering

Traditional load shedding schemes can be inadequate in grids with high renewable penetration, leading to unstable events and unnecessary grid islanding. Although for both manual and automatic operating modes load shedding areas have been predefined by grid operators, they have remained fixed, and may be sub-optimal due to dynamic operating conditions. In this work, a distributed tri-level linear programming model for automatic load shedding to avoid system islanding is presented. Preventing islanding is preferred because it reduces the need for additional load shedding besides the disconnection of transmission lines between islands. This is crucial as maintaining the local generation-demand balance is necessary to preserve frequency stability. Furthermore, uneven distribution of generation resources among islands can lead to increased load shedding, causing economic and reliability challenges. This issue is further compounded in modern power systems heavily dependent on non-dispatchable resources like wind and solar. The upper-level model uses complex power flow measurements to determine the system areas to shed load depending on actual operating conditions using a spectral clustering approach. The mid-level model estimates the area system state, while the lower-level model determines the locations and load values to be shed. The solution is practical and promising for real-world applications.

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seismic DAS observations of a large underground chemical explosion in dry tuff

On 18 October 2023 a 16.3-ton TNT equivalent chemical explosion was detonated underground at the Nevada National Security Site, generating a seismic event with a magnitude of 1.7 (Meyers et al., 2024). The associated seismic wavefield was measured on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array with slant range distances from 27 m – 1123 m. The first arriving phase traveled at an apparent velocity of about 2640 m s -1 from 27 m to 420 m slant range and about 2470 m s -1 from 505 m to 1123 m slant range according to the first arrival moveouts on the DAS data. The first arrival from the explosion temporarily saturated the cable from a slant range of 27 m – 186 m and 0.009 s to 0.084 s post detonation. From 186 m slant range to 420 m slant range, peak strain rates of 5.6 x 10 6 nm m -1 s -1 were observed for the first arrival phase. For the first arrival from 505 m slant range to 1123 m slant range, peak strain rates reduced to 8.0 x 104 nm m -1 s -1 . A comparison of the scaled accelerations computed from DAS, the geophone pairs, and the measurements of co-located accelerometer pairs show common agreement at the scaled ranges of the single point sensors. This study adds to the body of work reporting near-source DAS observations of the seismic wavefields generated by underground chemical explosions. These results indicate that near-source DAS observations can refine interpretations of phase identification from single-point sensor observations. Phase identification could be one mechanism that contributes scatter to single point seismic measurements which would confound the performance of empirical relationships for small explosions. Removing that mechanism may therefore reduce interstation variability and increase empirical relationship performance for small explosions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Muon-neutrino disappearance with multiple liquid argon time projection chambers in the Fermilab Booster neutrino beam

The Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program consists of three liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments: SBND, MicroBooNE and ICARUS, with 110 m, 470 m and 600 m baselines respectively. The detectors are located in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab which has a peak energy around 0.7 GeV and contains predominantly muon neutrinos. The baseline and energy range of the SBN program is conducive to measuring neutrino oscillation parameters under various sterile neutrino hypotheses. Sterile neutrinos have been proposed as a possible solution to the numerous short baseline anomalies. The proposed particles must be sterile in nature such that they do not interact via the weak force, however they may undergo oscillations with the active neutrino flavours. Their existence may consequently be confirmed through measurements of the appearance and disappearance of the active flavours. The analyses presented in this thesis aimed to calculate and understand the sensitivity of the SBN program to measuring the ?µ disappearance parameters under the (3+1) sterile neutrino oscillation hypothesis. The sensitivity of SBN to measuring the ?µ disappearance sterile oscillation parameters, sin2 2?µµ, ?m2 41, was calculated through semi-exclusive joint fits of the ?µ CC 0p and ?µ CC Other reconstructed neutrino energy spectra. The first iteration used truth-level Monte Carlo (MC) events, and determined that the 5s SBN sensitivity is comparable to the 90% MINOS/MINOS+ confidence level and supersedes the 90% MiniBooNE confidence level across entire phase space. Semi-exclusive joint fits of the aforementioned sample spectra were performed between the MC and multiple mock data sets in SBND. This analysis assessed the accuracy with which the near detector can disentangle systematic from physics effects in the oscillation analysis. The result was a 5.49% discrepancy between the ICARUS Monte Carlo and mock data event rates, when the systematic constraints from the near detector fit were extrapolated to the far detector. The second iteration of the SBN sensitivity analysis involved the application of an event selection procedure developed in SBND, following the full reconstruction chain. ?µ CC 0p events were selected from sample of neutrinos with 84.5% efficiency and 84.3% purity. The sterile neutrino sensitivity was determined once more at the near detector with these samples, and was shown to be consistent with the truth-level studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

All-sky Neutrino Point-source Search with IceCube Combined Track and Cascade Data

Despite extensive efforts, discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrino sources remains elusive. We present an event-level simultaneous maximum likelihood analysis of tracks and cascades using IceCube data collected from 2008 April 6 to 2022 May 23 to search the whole sky for neutrino sources, and using a source catalog, for coincidence of neutrino emission with gamma-ray emission. This is the first time a simultaneous fit of different detection channels is used to conduct a time-integrated all-sky scan with IceCube. Combining all-sky tracks, with superior pointing power and sensitivity in the northern sky, with all-sky cascades, with good energy resolution and sensitivity in the southern sky, we have developed the most sensitive point-source search to date by IceCube that targets the entire sky. The most significant point in the northern sky aligns with NGC 1068, a Seyfert II galaxy, which, from the catalog search, shows a 3.5σ excess over background after accounting for trials. The most significant point in the southern sky does not align with any source in the catalog and is not significant after accounting for trials. A search for the single most significant Gaussian flare at the locations of NGC 1068, PKS 1424+240, and the southern highest-significance point shows results consistent with expectations for steady emission. Notably, this is the first time that a flare shorter than four years has been excluded as being responsible for NGC 1068’s emergence as a neutrino source. Our results show that combining tracks and cascades when conducting neutrino source searches improves sensitivity and can lead to new discoveries.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗

DOE OSTI2020

Search for Electron Neutrino Anomalies with the MicroBooNE Detector

The Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The experiment was devised to investigate a series of observed anomalies concerning short-baseline neutrino oscillation physics. The LArTPC technology enables the experiment to study neutrino-argon scattering with unprecedented detail.This thesis presents a cosmic-ray characterisation and rate measurement. The understanding of cosmic activity in the detector - MicroBooNE's dominant background - is then used to develop cosmic rejection tools. A flavour-agnostic neutrino selection is constructed, which forms the cornerstone of this and further analyses. Inclusive muon and electron charged-current neutrino interaction selections with unprecedented purity and efficiency are presented.The first fully-automated characterisation of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam with the LArTPC detector technology is performed. The Booster Neutrino Beam has an energy peaking around 1GeV and an intrinsic electron content of approximately 0.5%. The analysis investigates electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The kinematics of the electrons are measured along with comparisons to simulation. Most of the systematic uncertainties are constrained using a data-driven sample of charged-current muon neutrino events. The measurement of electron neutrinos originating from the Booster Neutrino Beam is a crucial component towards understanding the nature of the observed excess of low-energy electromagnetic-like events at its predecessor, MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Aircraft-derived particle fluxes distinguish entrainment zone and decoupled layer nucleation in marine boundary layers

The vertical distribution of freshly nucleated aerosol particles in the marine boundary layer remains poorly constrained, limiting our ability to represent new particle formation in climate models. Here we characterize 3–10 nm particle events, termed small particle events (SPEs), by deriving their vertical turbulent fluxes from aircraft measurements during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign. To overcome stationarity limitations of traditional eddy covariance methods, we applied continuous wavelet transform analysis to data collected during June–July 2017 and January–February 2018 flights over the Azores. Our flux-based analysis revealed two distinct SPE scenarios with different vertical structures and spatial extents. The first featured nucleation in the entrainment zone, where free tropospheric air entrains into the boundary layer. The second showed nucleation in the decoupled layer, a stratified region between the well-mixed surface layer and cloud-topped upper boundary layer. In both cases, convergence of air masses from different layers diluted preexisting aerosol surface area to very low levels, creating conditions favorable for nucleation and generating strong downward particle fluxes. SPEs occurred in 15 % of flights, challenging prevailing theoretical expectations that new particle formation should rarely occur in marine boundary layers due to high condensation and coagulation sink capacity of sea spray aerosols. Aircraft-derived particle fluxes provide first observational constraints on the vertical location and source strength of likely nucleation regions in the remote marine boundary layer, improving aerosol source representations in climate models and reducing uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Rasheeda Satheesh, Ajmal [North Carolina State Uni↗

DOE OSTI2026

Study on Application of Distributed Network of Sensors with List Mode for NMAC Literature Review

Nuclear material accounting and control (NMAC) for nuclear security detects, deters, and resolves questions related to unauthorized removal (i.e. theft) or misuse of nuclear material. NMAC also serves as a key insider threat mitigation measure and aids in recovery of nuclear material that is missing. Effective nuclear security depends on NMAC for timely and accurate information about nuclear material types, quantities, and locations. Bulk nuclear material processing facilities, however, present unique challenges for effective NMAC due to the presence of large quantities of material in-process and the accumulation of residual material holdup within process equipment. These holdup accumulations can obscure accurate physical inventory taking and complicate efforts to resolve NMAC irregularities at the facility level. Bulk material monitoring systems often rely on material balance calculations and indirect measurement techniques, which may mask protracted theft of smaller amounts of nuclear material. These monitoring limitations have generated increased interest in continuous monitoring technologies, including distributed non-destructive assay (NDA) sensor networks capable of providing real-time or near-real-time measurement of material movement and accumulation within bulk processing environments. Recent advancements in distributed networks of NDA radiation detectors and sensing technologies provide an opportunity to address these limitations. Although such distributed sensor networks have been implemented in select facilities for IAEA Safeguards applications, their potential for supporting NMAC functions specifically tailored to nuclear security objectives remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, emerging list-mode data acquisition technologies have reached high technology readiness levels, enabling time-correlated detection of nuclear events across multiple temporal scales. These capabilities provide enhanced opportunities for accurate holdup measurement, continuous process monitoring, and improved detection of material theft or misuse over time. The increasing global expansion of civil nuclear power and development of related bulk material processing facilities, including those supporting high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) and other advanced reactor fuel fabrication, further increases the need for advanced measurement and monitoring strategies for NMAC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets

Publication For a thorough description of the methods, see the peer-reviewed paper: Jones, A.D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P. et al. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather. Sci Data 10, 664 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02485-5 Overview The IM3 / HyperFACETS climate simulations provide 40-year historical (1980-2019) as well as four 80-year future simulations (2020-2099) over the U.S. The future simulations are split into near (2020-2059) and far future (2060-2099) segments. The future scenarios span a range of plausible changes in future climate (both Global Circulation Model (GCM) and Representative Concentration Pathways/Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP/SSP) dimensions). The simulations provide climate variables with high spatiotemporal resolution (25 hourly variables and 207 3-hourly variables at 12 km2). The datasets are generated using dynamical downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (version 4.2.1) and therefore preserve physical consistency across variables. WRF is a state-of-the-art, fully compressible, non-hydrostatic, mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. WRF is coupled with an urban canopy model (UCM), which resolves urban surfaces. The future scenarios were developed using a thermodynamic global warming approach where past events are replayed under a range of future warming conditions. These scenarios therefore provide a perspective on potential increases in extreme event intensity, geographic scope, and duration, with previously non-extreme conditions potentially crossing new thresholds to be considered extreme by today's standards. This approach is not intended to estimate future changes in extreme event frequency that might result from changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This dataset has NOT been bias corrected. A bias corrected version of selected variables is under development and will be released here when available. Scenarios Files Data for each scenario is provided in weekly NetCDF files. 25 variables are available at hourly resolution, and 207 variables are available at three-hourly resolution. Spatial resolution is 12km and spans the conterminous United States (CONUS), including some areas of Canada and Mexico, resulting in a grid of 424 by 299 cells. The spatial projection is a Lambert Conformal Conic with the following proj-string: "+proj=lcc +lat_0=40.0000076293945 +lon_0=-97 +lat_1=30 +lat_2=45 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +R=6370000 +units=m +no_defs". The available scenarios and simulation periods are listed below: historical | 1980 - 2019 rcp45cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp45cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp45hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp45hotter | 2060 - 2099 rcp85cooler | 2020 - 2059 rcp85cooler | 2060 - 2099 rcp85hotter | 2020 - 2059 rcp85hotter | 2060 - 2099 * The first year (1979, 2019, and 2059) of data within each scenario represents a model warmup period and should not be used. These are located in the `spinup_files` directory. Historical year 2020 is considered an extra year of data beyond the simulation period and can be found in the `additional_files` directory. For information on specific variables and a more in-depth discussion of methodology, please refer to the data landing page at https://tgw-data.msdlive.org. Delta Warming Files The global and CONUS warming deltas for each scenario are provided in degrees Celsius annually and monthly. Restart Files Yearly restart files are provided for each scenario which can be used to restart the WRF model at a particular point in time. Spinup Files The first year of data within each simulation period represents a model warmup period and should not be used. The files are provided here for the sake of reproducibility. Additional Files Additional years of data are provided as an extension of the historic simulation.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

DOE OSTI2024

Runaway Eccentricity Growth: A Pathway for Binary Black Hole Mergers in AGN Disks

Binary black holes (BBHs) embedded within the accretion disks that fuel active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising progenitors for the source of gravitational wave (GW) events detected by LIGO/VIRGO. Several recent studies have shown that when these binaries form, they are likely to be highly eccentric and retrograde. However, many uncertainties remain concerning the orbital evolution of these binaries as they either inspiral toward merger or disassociate. Previous hydrodynamical simulations exploring their orbital evolution have been predominantly two-dimensional or have been restricted to binaries on nearly circular orbits. We present the first high-resolution, three-dimensional local shearing-box simulations of both prograde and retrograde eccentric BBHs embedded in AGN disks. We find that retrograde binaries shrink several times faster than their prograde counterparts and exhibit significant orbital eccentricity growth, the rate of which monotonically increases with binary eccentricity. Our results suggest that retrograde binaries may experience runaway orbital eccentricity growth, which may bring them close enough together at pericenter for GW emission to drive them to coalescence. Although their eccentricity is damped, prograde binaries shrink much faster than their orbital eccentricity decays, suggesting they should remain modestly eccentric as they contract toward merger. Finally, binary precession driven by the AGN disk may dominate over precession induced by the supermassive black hole depending on the binary accretion rate and its location in the AGN disk, which can subdue the evection resonance and von Ziepel–Lidov–Kozai cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

National Spherical Torus eXperiment - Upgrade NSTX-U: Structural Analysis of Passive Plates Support Brackets

The objective of this analysis is to estimate and assess the stresses in the passive plates caused by a limiting plasma disruption. The objective of this calculation is also to address observed damage to mounting hardware after completion of NSTX operation. These observations initiated diagnostic efforts during the Upgrade project to monitor the severity of the disruptions that were causing the damage, and planned instrumentation to trend the behavior of the mounting hardware. The Recovery Project mission for the passive plate hardware is to appropriately reinforce the passive plates with stainless steel ribs mounted on the back of the plate to reduce their flexure and stress and reinforcements of the “biscuit” components of the bracketry to transfer loads without damage to bolts, biscuits, and bracket plates and welds. Mid-plane disruptions and quenches were manageable with NSTX vintage hardware. The Vertical Displacement Event (VDE) disruptions position the plasma closer to the passive plates and are more severe than the centered plasma. Earlier work pointed to the P1-P5 VDE as limiting. This has been confirmed by A. Brooks work in support of the load generation effort in reference. During vertical displacement large counter currents are generated in the plate as the plasma approaches it. - as would be expected from passive plates. When the plasma disrupts the currents in the plates are reversed, which also reverses the loading on the plates. This report documents the methodology and results of transient structural analysis on the plasma, passive plates support brackets. The loads induced by eddy and halo currents have been considered, and were generated using a separate electromagnetic analysis (NSTXU_1_11_2_1_CALC_051). The structural model also incorporates the effects from preload. Calculation was performed with the assumption that existing biscuits are not participating in the load bearing except the biscuits connected to jumper bolts, which are fully engaged. Results show that with the planned reinforcements, Passive plates and mounting structures satisfy static and fatigue criteria in all areas except welds, where separate analysis was performed. Both symmetric and asymmetric (with locating block) designs were analyzed, and although stresses were higher without locating block they still satisfy NSTX design criteria.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗