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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Post-irradiation examination of the Sirius-1 nuclear thermal propulsion fuel test

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems hold promise in reducing transit times for exploration of the solar system by both crewed and uncrewed missions. NTP systems currently under investigation include a once-through high-temperature gas-cooled fission reactor to provide thermal energy to heat the coolant, which also serves as the propellant. The fuel system consists of angular UN fuel particles dispersed in a matrix of W/Re, creating a ceramic and metallic composite or cermet, which has been irradiated in Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). This enabled evaluation of these materials under representative nuclear heating rates (~95 K/s) and peak surface temperatures (~2527 K). Further, these surface conditions were indicative of achievement of the target peak internal temperature of approximately 2850 K. These tests named Sirius-1 (UN–W/Re), have been irradiated and this paper will present post-irradiation examination results. The Sirius-1 test produced minor, stable cracks in the fuel specimen and spalling of surface material. Volatilized uranium ‘soot’ was found deposited on the inner wall of the irradiation capsule indicating loss of some fissile material from the fuel specimen. Spalling from the surfaces was also noted upon visual inspection. Uranium diffusion from the fuel particles resulted in the formation of U/Re phases and the production of a laminar microstructure on the edge of the fuel system. Overall, the specimen was stable and remained within a coolable geometry upon conclusion of multiple thermal cycles to prototypical operating temperatures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slip band characteristics in the presence of grain boundaries in nickel-based superalloy

Shear strain profiles along slip bands in a modified Rolls-Royce nickel superalloy (RR1000) were analyzed for a tensile sample deformed by 2%. The strain increased with distance away from a grain boundary (GB), with maximum shear strain towards the center of the grain, indicating that dislocation nucleation generally occurred in the grain interior. The strain gradients in the neighborhood of the GBs were quantified and generally correlated with rotation about the active slip system line direction. This leads to an ability to determine the active slip system in these regions. The dislocation spacing and pileup stresses were inferred. The dislocation spacing closely follows an Eshelby analytical solution for a single ended pileup of dislocations under an applied stress. The distribution of pileup stress values for GBs of a given misorientation angle follows a log-normal distribution, with no correlation between the pileup stress and the GB misorientation angle. Furthermore, there is no observed correlation between various transmissivity factors and slip band pileup stress. Hence it appears that the obstacle strength of any of the observed GBs is adequate to facilitate the dislocation pileups present in the slip bands. However, slip band transmission does correlate with transmissivity factors, with the current study focusing on the Luster and Morris m’-factor. Observation of strain profiles of transmitted bands indicate dislocation nucleation locations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated effects of sample size and grain neighborhood on the modeling of extreme value fatigue response

Assessing the size of representative volume elements (RVEs) for fatigue-related applications is challenging. A RVE relevant to random microstructure requires a volume of material that is sufficiently large to capture the grain/phase heterogeneity that captures all statistical moments of the distribution of the driving force for fatigue crack formation at “hot spot” grains. Consequently, the large size of a microstructure RVE required to study fatigue phenomena is largely computationally intractable and difficult to explore. A more realistic objective in this work is to systematically study, as a function of the size of a statistical sample of microstructure, trends towards convergence of the simulated distribution of driving force for fatigue crack formation. Our present work accordingly leverages the recently developed open-source PRISMS-Fatigue framework to examine the trends in convergence of extreme value distributions (EVD) of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs) in progressively larger polycrystalline microstructure realizations of FCC Al alloy 7075-T6 using crystal plasticity finite element method simulations. The results are compared to the traditional method in which ensembles of statistical volume elements (SVEs) are simulated to build up statistics intended to approximate those associated with a larger volume of material. The convergence of EVDs with increase of size of a SVE of microstructure is closely related to the extent of grain nearest neighbor (NN) interactions. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the local micromechanical response at hot spot grains is quantitatively investigated by systematically varying the orientations of NN grains. Results indicate that SVEs with cubic crystallographic texture tend towards convergence of the EVD of FIPs with tens of thousands of grains while the random and rolled textures require larger volumes. Simple relationships based on microstructure parameters (e.g., Schmid Factor, grain size, NN misorientation) do not completely correlate to fatigue hot spot grains. Finally, the sensitivity of the extreme value fatigue response at hot spot grains extends to the 3rd NN when a single neighborhood grain orientation is altered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling the origins of work-hardening enhancement and mechanical instability in laser shock peened titanium

Laser shock-peening (LSP) produces complex gradients in microstructures and residual stresses, which enables fabrication of metallic engineering components with superior mechanical properties. In this work, we use non-destructive and spatially resolved high-energy X-ray diffraction (HE-XRD) to investigate the influences of LSP on microstructure, surface topography, and residual stress for high purity titanium plates. LSP is found to produce large compressive in-plane residual stresses near the peened surface which monotonically decay to zero about 2.5 mm below the surface. These properties were also tracked during in-situ tensile loading, allowing stress partitioning and work-hardening rates to be measured as a function of depth. The surface region is found to have the highest work-hardening rate and remain mechanically stable up to sample failure. In addition, a crystal rigid rotation along a transversal axis of about 27 & nbsp; was observed at large applied strain near the surface region, which is attributed to the formation of denser dispersed shear bands. Furthermore, a sudden drop in tensile stress was observed at a depth of similar to 160 mu m from the LSP surface, indicating the formation of a localized mechanical instability zone (LMIZ). The origin of this LMIZ could be attributed to the increase in shear stress induced by a load transfer from LSP surface due to the formation of denser dispersed shear bands. These observations indicate a localized transition in deformation behavior has occurred from dispersed shear banding to LMIZ and homogeneous deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of heavy ion irradiation dose rate and temperature on α' precipitation in high purity Fe-18%Cr alloy

Cr-rich alpha prime precipitates (CrRP) induce hardening and embrittlement of FeCr alloys, but the kinetics of CrRP formation due to particle irradiation are not well understood. In this study, Fe18wt.%Cr alloy in solid solution state and pre-aged to produce relatively coarse CrRP was irradiated with 8 MeV Fe ions. The irradiation conditions involved two midrange doses of 0.37 and 3.7 displacements per atom (dpa), a wide range of dose rates (10 -5 –10 -3 dpa/s) and temperatures (300–450 °C). The distributions of CrRP after irradiation were studied with atom probe tomography (APT). The critical irradiation conditions to suppress CrRP formation were identified as 300 °C and 10-3 dpa/s; CrRP formation occurred readily at lower dose rates or higher temperatures. From 0.37 to 3.7 dpa, CrRP were observed to slightly grow at 350 °C and strongly coarsen at 450 °C. Specimens with pre-existing CrRP evolved into a similar precipitate distribution as detected after ion irradiation on solution annealed specimens at 300–350 °C to 0.37 dpa, indicating that the precipitate microstructure approaches a quasi-equilibrium for doses <1 dpa. Limited shrinking of pre-existing CrRP was observed after irradiation at 450 °C to 0.37 dpa, indicating a higher recovery rate at this temperature. Additionally, the evolution of CrRP is quantitatively explained by employing corrections to the historic Nelson-Hudson-Mazey precipitate stability model, and a radiation modified precipitation mechanism is proposed to account for the competition between radiation enhanced diffusion and ballistic dissolution which results in the modifications on both size and solute concentration of CrRP.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Formation of carbon homonuclear bonds in β-SiC under neutron irradiation at various temperatures and neutron doses

To elucidate radiation defect processes in SiC, Raman spectroscopy was systematically applied to high-purity, polycrystalline β-SiC that was neutron irradiated at a range of temperature and dose conditions. The analysis specifically focused on formation of carbon homonuclear bonds by irradiation; these bonds were indicated by D and G bands and amorphous carbon peaks. Intensity of the carbon peaks relative to SiC peaks significantly decreased in the case of high temperature and/or high neutron dose of 500 °C to 29 displacements per atom (dpa) and about 800 °C to 1.38 and 29 dpa. The absence of carbon bond peaks under those conditions was explained by growth of stoichiometric defect clusters, consistent with previous atomistic simulations on SiC defect stability. The lack of Raman bands associated with carbon clusters under high-temperature and high-dose radiation conditions accounts for the resistance of SiC to phase separation under irradiation. The findings further suggest that material compositions and chemical properties that are inherently resistant to chemical disordering under high-dose radiation conditions are indicative of the long-term durability of ceramic compounds in radiation environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of peptide amphiphile-lipid raft interaction by changing peptide amphiphile lipophilicity

Various peptide amphiphile (PA) molecules have been developed to promote bone regeneration. Previously we discovered that a peptide amphiphile with a palmitic acid tail (C 16 ) attenuates the signaling threshold of leucine-rich amelogenin peptide (LRAP)-mediated Wnt activation by increasing membrane lipid raft mobility. In the current study, we found that treatment of murine ST2 cells with an inhibitor (Nystatin) or Caveolin-1-specific siRNA abolishes the effect of C 16 PA, indicating that Caveolin-mediated endocytosis is required. Here, to determine whether hydrophobicity of the PA tail plays a role in its signaling effect, we modified the length of the tail (C 12 , C 16 and C 22 ) or composition (cholesterol). While shortening the tail (C 12 ) decreased the signaling effect, lengthening the tail (C 22 ) had no prominent effect. On the other hand, the cholesterol PA displayed a similar function as the C 16 PA at the same concentration of 0.001% w/v. Interestingly, a higher concentration of C 16 PA (0.005%) is cytotoxic while cholesterol PA at the higher concentration (0.005%) is well-tolerated by cells. Use of the cholesterol PA at 0.005% enabled a further reduction of the signaling threshold of LRAP to 0.20 nM, compared to 0.25 nM at 0.001%. Caveolin-mediated endocytosis is also required for cholesterol PA, as evidenced by Caveolin-1 siRNA knockdown experiments. We further demonstrated that the noted effects of cholesterol PA are also observed in human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMMSCs). Taken together, these results indicate that the cholesterol PA modulates lipid raft/caveolar dynamics, thereby increasing receptor sensitivity for activation of canonical Wnt signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An assessment of the utility of multirate time integration for the modeling of laser powder bed fusion

Finite element simulation of the laser powder bed fusion process is made challenging by the inherently multiscale nature of the process. When using the typical global time stepping techniques, slowly-evolving regions of the domain receive the same numerical treatment as the regions with the highest temperature rates. The current work details the implementation and evaluation of an implicit multirate method which is able to advance different regions of the domain with distinct time steps, depending on their current solution rate. Previous work indicates that this representation of the temporal scales of the problem can lead to significant reductions in wall clock run time, and it is shown herein that multirate time integration, when used with a uniform process-scale mesh, can result in speedups of approximately 19, 42, and 87 times, for domains with edge lengths of approximately 1 mm, 2 mm, and 5 mm, respectively. When used in conjunction with $\ h$-refinement (limited to two levels of refinement), the resulting speedups (taken relative to the uniform mesh) are around 28, 85, and 665 times. The method is demonstrated to converge as indicated by the literature, and its use with an AM-Bench domain is demonstrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of heterogeneous surface wettability on dynamic immiscible displacement, capillary pressure, and relative permeability in a CO 2 -water-rock system

Numerical examination of CO 2 displacement in brine filled rock pores with varying wettability. Results show that as the CO 2 contact angles on the rock surface increased (intermediate water wetting conditions) negative entry pressures for CO 2 displacement were observed, indicating that when heterogeneous surface wettability is accounted for, greater mobility of CO 2 into rock pores is expected. In addition, simulated relative permeability CO 2 curves with heterogeneous intermediate water wetting conditions exhibited a greater amount of variation, indicative of a complex interrelation of geometric capillary restrictions and surface wettability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of sun zenith angle on canopy clumping and the resulting impacts on photosynthesis

Addressing the impact of vegetation architecture on shortwave radiation transfer in land surface models is important for accurate weather forecasting, carbon budget estimates, and climate predictions. This paper investigates to what extent it is possible to retrieve structural parameters of two different parameterization schemes from direct transmittance derived from digital hemispherical photography and 3D radiative transfer modeling for two study sites with different vegetation canopy architectures. Neglecting the representation of 3D canopy structure in radiative transfer schemes leads to significant errors in shortwave radiation partitioning (up to 3.5 times more direct transmittance in the 3D model). Structural parameters, referred to as whole canopy ‘clumping indices’, were obtained in order to evaluate the impact of angular variation in clumping on shortwave radiation transfer. Impacts on photosynthesis were evaluated at site level with the UKESM land surface model, JULES. A comparison between flux tower derived and modeled photosynthesis indicates that considering zenith angular variations of structural parameters in the radiative transfer scheme of the UKESM land surface model significantly improves photosynthesis prediction in light limited ecosystems (from RMSE = 2.91 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 to RMSE = 1.51 μmol CO 2 .m -2 .s -1 , 48% smaller), typically with enhanced photosynthesis from bottom layers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tree growth, transpiration, and water-use efficiency between shoreline and upland red maple (Acer rubrum) trees in a coastal forest

Coastal shoreline forests are vulnerable to seawater exposure, the impacts of which will increase due to sea-level rise, but the longterm adaption strategies and vulnerability of coastal forests are not well understood. We used whole-tree transpiration, leaf water potential, tree-ring width, and tree-ring d13C (a proxy for intrinsic water use efficiency, iWUE) to examine the long-term adaption strategies of red maple (Acer rubrum) trees at the coastal interface (i.e., shoreline) and nearby upland in Maryland, USA. Red maple trees that grew along the shoreline and were exposed to slightly saline water (up to two PSU) had higher transpiration rates than those growing in the nearby upland forest during a wet year, but these differences disappeared during a normal precipitation year. Shoreline trees grew more slowly than upland trees over the last four decades, but these growth differences have disappeared in the last six years. Shoreline and upland trees had similar variation in iWUE, indicating that higher transpiration rates of the seawater exposed trees did not translate into differences in water use efficiency. There were no differences in predawn and midday water potential between upland and shoreline trees, suggesting no water stress occurs in shoreline trees. These findings indicate that urrent soil salinity is below the threshold to constrain coastal red maple physiological activities.

Wang, Wenzhi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrometeorological sensitivities of net ecosystem carbon dioxide and methane exchange of an Amazonian palm swamp peatland

Here, we report ecosystem-scale CO 2 and CH 4 flux observations for an Amazonian palm swamp peatland over a two-year period in relation to hydrometeorological forcings. Seasonal and short-term variations in hydrometeorological forcing had a strong effect on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes. High air temperature and vapor pressure deficit exerted an important limitation on photosynthesis during the dry season, while latent heat flux appeared to be insensitive to these climate drivers. Evidence from light-response analyses and flux partitioning support that photosynthetic activity was downregulated during dry conditions, while ecosystem respiration was either inhibited or enhanced depending on water table position. The cumulative net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange indicated that the peatland was a significant carbon dioxide sink ranging from –465 (–279 to –651) g C m -2 y -1 in 2018 to –462 (–277 to –647) g C m -2 y -1 in 2019. The forest was a methane source of 22 (20 to 24) g C m -2 y -1 , similar in magnitude to other tropical peatlands and larger than boreal and arctic peatlands. Furthermore, the annual carbon budget of this Amazonian palm swamp peatland appears to be a major carbon sink under current hydrometeorological conditions, but evidence indicates that the sink strength is vulnerable to future climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gross primary production (GPP) and red solar induced fluorescence (SIF) respond differently to light and seasonal environmental conditions in a subalpine conifer forest

The phenology of montane conifer forests is likely to shift in response to climate change and altered seasonal dynamics of light, temperature, and moisture. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provide substantial improvement for mapping temporal changes in evergreen gross primary production (GPP) over greenness-based remote sensing indices. The utility of SIF to monitor seasonal changes in the phenology of conifer photosynthesis depends on the degree to which GPP and SIF respond in synchrony to key environmental drivers. However, to what extent SIF and GPP become decoupled by responding differently to the combined effects of light and other environmental conditions remains unknown. The goal of this study was to characterize the responses of GPP and SIFred to a suite of environmental drivers at the half-hour time scale and determine how these relationships change across seasons. We analyzed one year of tower-based SIFred and eddy covariance-derived GPP data from a conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado. We compared the light responses of GPP and SIFred across the year, finding that SIFred increased in response to light earlier in the year than did GPP. The light response of GPP had a positive temperature dependence in spring, and this dependency reversed in summer due to increased evaporative demand, while the light response of SIFred was less temperature dependent. Using artificial neural network ensemble analysis, we found that from spring to summer, SIFred did not exhibit a parallel response to the seasonally dynamic temperature and moisture controls on GPP. In summer SIFred was not correlated with canopy conductance, suggesting that SIF is less sensitive to stomatal control than GPP. Furthermore, our results suggest that, in conifers, photosystems begin to activate in spring prior to when water becomes available for photosynthesis, presenting a challenge for the use of SIF as a phenological indicator in conifer forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fine resolution remote sensing spectra improves estimates of gross primary production of croplands

Gross primary production (GPP) is a fundamental measure of the terrestrial carbon cycle critical to our understanding of ecosystem function under the changing climate and land use. Remote sensing enables access to continuous spatial coverage, but remains challenged in heterogeneous croplands. Coarse resolution products, like MOD17A (500 m), may aggregate fragmented land cover types commonly found in heavily managed landscapes and misrepresent their respective contribution to carbon production. Consequently, this study demonstrates the capability of fine-resolution imagery (20-30 m) and available red-edge vegetation indices to characterize GPP across seven Midwest cropping systems. Four sites were established on a 22-year-old USDA Conservation Reserve Program (CRP); and the other three on land conventionally farmed with corn-soybean-wheat rotation (AGR). We compare in situ GPP estimates from eddy-covariance towers with ten satellite models: eight variants of the vegetation photosynthesis models (VPM), of which five include a red-edge vegetation index, as well as conventional products Landsat CONUS GPP (30 m) and MOD17A2H V6 (500 m). Daily and cumulative fine-resolution imagery integrated within VPM generally agreed with tower-based GPP in heterogeneous landscapes more than those from MODIS 500 m VPM or conventional GPP products from MOD17AH V6 or Landsat 8 CONUS. Here, replacing EVI2 with red-edge indices NDRE2, NDRE1, and MTCI in Sentinel 2 VPMs notably improved explanation of variance and estimation of cumulative GPP. While existing methods using MODIS- and Landsat-derived GPP are important baselines for regional and global studies, future research may benefit from the higher spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗