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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Communication indices of crew coordination

The relationship between communication patterns and performance in 10 two-person flightcrews is explored with the aim of identifying speech variations which differentiate low- and high-error full mission simulator flights. Verbal data, transcribed from the videotaped performances, are treated as interactive sequences of speech events in which statements spoken by one crewmember are considered within the context of the other crewmember's prior and subsequent speech. Specific speech patterns characterized each crew, but the overriding findings included: a) marked homogeneity of patterns characterizing low-error crews, interpreted as the adoption of a standard form of communicating, and b) heterogeneity of patterns characterizing high-error crews, interpreted as the relative absence of a conventionalized form. Because conventions are regularities which confirm the expectations of those involved, predictability of crewmember behavior should be greater when standard conventions are followed. We conclude that such a practice can facilitate the coordination process and enhance crew performance.

Aerospace Medicine↗

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

Response to Comment on 'Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

Sovacool et al.'s analysis of our paper contains numerous errors, misinterpretations, and dubious assumptions. For instance, we make no presumption in our paper that nuclear power is the only major option to replace fossil fuels nor have we in the past, as evidenced by our other peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, all of our results are based on complete fuel cycle analysis and are presented as mean values along with their ranges. Thus it is incorrect to claim that we single out the worst estimates for coal mortality. Contrary to Sovacool et al.'s assertions, our only bias is our belief that humanity's best chance of success for mitigating the daunting challenge of climate change is to utilize all available and proven means.

coal↗

Fault Detection and Diagnosis in Spacecraft Electrical Power Systems

The ability to accurately identify and isolate failures in the electrical power system (EPS) is critical to ensure the reliability of spacecraft. This paper proposes a novel solution to the problem of fault detection and diagnosis in direct current (DC) electric power systems for spacecraft. Autonomous operation becomes essential during deep space missions that lack the ability to monitor and control the spacecraft from ground locations. The current state of EPS fault supervision is insufficient to guarantee highly reliable operation. To solve this issue, a combination of model-based and knowledge-based techniques are used in a hierarchical framework to improve the diagnostic performance of the system. Noise, disturbances, and modeling errors are considered in the design of the fault detection system. Practical considerations related to spacecraft flight hardware and software are accounted for in the system design for flight applications. To assess the functionality of the design, a wide array of failures are simulated in a series of experiments. The experiments showed that the technique improved the capability of the autonomous system by increasing the number of fault types diagnosed. The significance of this study is to provide a framework capable of advanced diagnostics of an EPS with little to no interaction from human operators.

Autonomous Power Systems↗

Communicating Metrics of Land Surface Temperature Variability Using Multi-sensor Machine Learning

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Further, time series clustering approaches are examined with the objective of identifying key indicators of change in diurnal cycling and extremes on a continental scale. Communicating LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Duffy↗

Joint NASA Ames/Langley Experimental Evaluation of Integrated Air/Ground Operations for En Route Free Maneuvering

In order to meet the anticipated future demand for air travel, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating a new concept of operations known as Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM). Under the En Route Free Maneuvering component of DAG-TM, appropriately equipped autonomous aircraft self separate from other autonomous aircraft and from managed aircraft that continue to fly under today s Instrument Flight Rules (IFR). Controllers provide separation services between IFR aircraft and assign traffic flow management constraints to all aircraft. To address concept feasibility issues pertaining to integrated air/ground operations at various traffic levels, NASA Ames and Langley Research Centers conducted a joint human-in-the-loop experiment. Professional airline pilots and air traffic controllers flew a total of 16 scenarios under four conditions: mixed autonomous/managed operations at three traffic levels and a baseline all-managed condition at the lowest traffic level. These scenarios included en route flights and descents to a terminal area meter fix in airspace modeled after the Dallas Ft. Worth area. Pilots of autonomous aircraft met controller assigned meter fix constraints with high success. Separation violations by subject pilots did not appear to vary with traffic level and were mainly attributable to software errors and procedural lapses. Controller workload was lower for mixed flight conditions, even at higher traffic levels. Pilot workload was deemed acceptable under all conditions. Controllers raised several safety concerns, most of which pertained to the occurrence of near-term conflicts between autonomous and managed aircraft. These issues are being addressed through better compatibility between air and ground systems and refinements to air and ground procedures.

Barhydt, Richard↗

Development of a Supervisory Tool for Fault Detection and Diagnosis of DC Electric Power Systems with the Application of Deep Space Vehicles

This dissertation formulates the problem of fault detection and diagnosis of DC electric power systems for the application of autonomous spacecraft. The ability to accurately identify and isolate failures in the electrical power system is critical to ensure the reliability of a spacecraft. This problem becomes more pronounced during deep space missions that lack the ability to monitor from ground control. The current state of electrical power system fault supervision is insufficient to guarantee highly reliable and robust operation. To solve this issue, a combination of model-based and rules-based techniques are used in a hierarchical framework to improve the diagnostic performance of the spacecraft electrical power system. Noise, disturbances, and modeling errors are considered in the design of the method. Practical considerations related to the hardware and software are discussed for the flight application. A wide array of failure types are simulated in a series of experiments to assess the functionality of the design. The experiments showed that the methods used improved the diagnostic capability of the autonomous system while taking into account the limitations attributed to flight software requirements. The significance of this study is to provide a framework capable of advanced diagnostics of an electrical power system with little to no interaction from a human operator.

Fault Detection and Diagnosis↗

Experimental study of visual accommodation

A summary report of a research effort related to the human visual accommodation system is presented. A theoretical study of the accommodation system was made. Subsequent effort was aimed at the development of specialized instrumentation for experiments designed to lead to understanding the nature of the control system in human accommodation. The necessary instrumentation consisted primarily of: (1) an automatic optometer to measure the state of eye focus, (2) a focus stimulator device to control the apparent optical distance to any target, and (3) a two-dimensional eye tracker. The concepts and designs of the first two instruments have been published in the open literature, but this report contains the first detailed treatment of the Purkinje eye tracker developed under this program. The report also discusses an accommodation lag model to explain the ability of the eye to apparently know the polarity of focus error even though the blur on the retina is to a first-approximation an even function. The interaction of the accommodation and eye movement systems is also discussed, as is the ability to train the visual accommodation system to a surprisingly responsive condition in only a few hours of training.

Cornsweet, T. N.↗

A study of pilot modeling in multi-controller tasks

A modeling approach, which utilizes a matrix of transfer functions to describe the human pilot in multiple input, multiple output control situations, is studied. The approach used was to extend a well established scalar Wiener-Hopf minimization technique to the matrix case and then study, via a series of experiments, the data requirements when only finite record lengths are available. One of these experiments was a two-controller roll tracking experiment designed to force the pilot to use rudder in order to coordinate and reduce the effects of aileron yaw. One model was computed for the case where the signals used to generate the spectral matrix are error and bank angle while another model was computed for the case where error and yaw angle are the inputs. Several anomalies were observed to be present in the experimental data. These are defined by the descriptive terms roll up, break up, and roll down. Due to these algorithm induced anomalies, the frequency band over which reliable estimates of power spectra can be achieved is considerably less than predicted by the sampling theorem.

Whitbeck, R. F.↗

Bringing AI up to the space challenge

The state of the art in automated systems for working in environments hostile to humans is assessed, together with the technological advancements necessary to meet NASA goals. Since completely automated operations are not possible with the current level of artificial intelligence (AI), the operator must have access to remote television access and interactive computerized controls. A proximal system exists when the teleoperated mechanism is close enough so that negligible time passes between operator and servocontrolled activation and feedback. An additional constraint is the complexity of the signal. Further development areas have been identified as limiting the necessary communication, compensating for technical limitations of communication with remote systems, such as bandwidth, error rate, and equipment response time, and to build-in fault tolerance, self-diagnosis, and self-maintenance capabilities. An AI expert system is being developed at JPL to provide an expert knowledge base and a decision-making capability. It is suggested that only thorough questioning of mission and spacecraft experts, as well as searching the large volume of project documentations, will provide the necessary data for establishing an expert data base for AI implementation.

Heer, E.↗

Human Tracking Performance in Uncoupled and Coupled Two-Axis Systems

This report presents tile results of an experimental and analytical study of human performance in uncoupled and coupled control systems. Human pilot performance in single and two-axis systems was mathematically modeled by linear second-order describing functions. Model parameters were determined using model matching techniques. Analysis of the models showed that the amplitude ratio and phase lead of the describing function increased with training indicating an increase in open loop bandwidth. The phase margin also decreased with training. Increasing the plant lag time constant resulted in an increase in the model lead time constant and a decrease in the zero frequency gain. No significant difference was found to exist in the normalized tracking error per axis between the two-axis tasks and the single-axis tasks. However tile model lead time constant was significantly greater in two-axis tracking. Manual tracking of two-axis systems with cross-coupling was studied experimentally and analytically. Approximate methods for modeling two-axis performance were developed and checked using a precise spectral analysis approach. Coupled and uncoupled, symmetrical and asymmetrical two-axis performance was compared. The results show that modeling of cross-coupled systems is feasible and that trained subjects are capable of decoupling the axes of some systems. A methodology study compared the identification performance of continuous, iterative, and extrapolation model matching techniques. An iterative technique employing sensitivity equations for the generation of influence coefficients was found to be the best technique due to its excellent identification accuracy and ease of implementation. Convergence in iterative techniques can be improved substantially by equalizing the parameter adjustment rates and limiting the maximum correction per iteration.

Todosiev, E. P.↗

Neural Network Machine Learning and Dimension Reduction for Data Visualization

Neural network machine learning in computer science is a continuously developing field of study. Although neural network models have been developed which can accurately predict a numeric value or nominal classification, a general purpose method for constructing neural network architecture has yet to be developed. Computer scientists are often forced to rely on a trial-and-error process of developing and improving accurate neural network models. In many cases, models are constructed from a large number of input parameters. Understanding which input parameters have the greatest impact on the prediction of the model is often difficult to surmise, especially when the number of input variables is very high. This challenge is often labeled the "curse of dimensionality" in scientific fields. However, techniques exist for reducing the dimensionality of problems to just two dimensions. Once a problem's dimensions have been mapped to two dimensions, it can be easily plotted and understood by humans. The ability to visualize a multi-dimensional dataset can provide a means of identifying which input variables have the highest effect on determining a nominal or numeric output. Identifying these variables can provide a better means of training neural network models; models can be more easily and quickly trained using only input variables which appear to affect the outcome variable. The purpose of this project is to explore varying means of training neural networks and to utilize dimensional reduction for visualizing and understanding complex datasets.

Liles, Charles A.↗

GLEAM: Galaxy Line Emission & Absorption Modeling

We present Galaxy Line Emission & Absorption Modeling (gleam), a Python tool for fitting Gaussian models to emission and absorption lines in large samples of 1D extragalactic spectra. gleam is tailored to work well in batch mode without much human interaction. With gleam, users can uniformly process a variety of spectra, including galaxies and active galactic nuclei, in a wide range of instrument setups and signal-to-noise regimes. gleam also takes advantage of multiprocessing capabilities to process spectra in parallel. With the goal of enabling reproducible workflows for its users, gleam employs a small number of input files, including a central, user-friendly configuration in which fitting constraints can be defined for groups of spectra and overrides can be specified for edge cases. For each spectrum, gleam produces a table containing measurements and error bars for the detected spectral lines and continuum and upper limits for nondetections. For visual inspection and publishing, gleam can also produce plots of the data with fitted lines overlaid. In the present paper, we describe gleam’s main features, the necessary inputs, expected outputs, and some example applications, including thorough tests on a large sample of optical/infrared multi-object spectroscopic observations and integral field spectroscopic data. gleam is developed as an open-source project hosted at https://github.com/multiwavelength/gleam and welcomes community contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhancing the representation of water management in global hydrological models

Abstract. This study enhances an existing global hydrological model (GHM), Xanthos, by adding a new water management module that distinguishes between the operational characteristics of irrigation, hydropower, and flood control reservoirs. We remapped reservoirs in the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) database to the 0.5∘ spatial resolution in Xanthos so that a single lumped reservoir exists per grid cell, which yielded 3790 large reservoirs. We implemented unique operation rules for each reservoir type, based on their primary purposes. In particular, hydropower reservoirs have been treated as flood control reservoirs in previous GHM studies, while here, we determined the operation rules for hydropower reservoirs via optimization that maximizes long-term hydropower production. We conducted global simulations using the enhanced Xanthos and validated monthly streamflow for 91 large river basins, where high-quality observed streamflow data were available. A total of 1878 (296 hydropower, 486 irrigation, and 1096 flood control and others) out of the 3790 reservoirs are located in the 91 basins and are part of our reported results. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) value (after adding the new water management) is ≥ 0.5 and ≥ 0.0 in 39 and 81 basins, respectively. After adding the new water management module, model performance improved for 75 out of 91 basins and worsened for only 7. To measure the relative difference between explicitly representing hydropower reservoirs and representing hydropower reservoirs as flood control reservoirs (as is commonly done in other GHMs), we use the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). Out of the 296 hydropower reservoirs, the NRMSE is > 0.25 (i.e., considering 0.25 to represent a moderate difference) for over 44 % of the 296 reservoirs when comparing both the simulated reservoir releases and storage time series between the two simulations. We suggest that correctly representing hydropower reservoirs in GHMs could have important implications for our understanding and management of freshwater resource challenges at regional-to-global scales. This enhanced global water management modeling framework will allow the analysis of future global reservoir development and management from a coupled human–earth system perspective.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Irrigation Techniques in the Community Land Model

Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation-induced impacts on the global and regional water cycle, energy budget, and near-surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, the implementations of irrigation in these models vary in complexity. Here, we expand the representation of irrigation in Community Land Model to enable six different irrigation methods. We find that using a combination of irrigation methods, including default, sprinkler, flood and paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating the simulated irrigation water withdrawals against observations, and therefore select this combination as the new irrigation scheme. Then, the impact of the new irrigation scheme on surface fluxes is evaluated and detected using single-point simulations. Finally, the global and regional irrigation-induced impacts on surface energy and water fluxes are compared using both the original and the new irrigation scheme. The new irrigation scheme substantially reduces the bias and root-mean-square error of simulated irrigation water withdrawal in the USA and other countries, but considerably overestimates withdrawals in Central China. Results of single-point experiments show that different irrigation methods have different effects on surface fluxes, while the magnitudes are small. At the global scale, the new scheme enlarges the irrigation-induced impacts on water and energy variables relative to the original scheme, with varying magnitudes across regions. Overall, our results suggest that this newly developed scheme is a better tool for simulating irrigation-induced impacts on climate, and highlight the added value of incorporating human water management in Earth system models.

Community land models↗

Human factors in aviation operations: The hearback problem

This report covers a study of ASRS reports wherein ATC controllers failed to monitor adequately (hearback) incorrect readbacks of ATC clearances. A total of 417 reports received over a period of 29 months from April 1981 through July 1983 comprised the study data set. Factors examined were: the reasons for a flight crew's getting clearances incorrectly, the operating factors that caused controllers to mishear or not hear the correct readbacks, and consequences of the various types of hearback misses. The principle conclusion of the study takes the form of a precaution to flight crews that a controller's not challenging a readback does not necessariliy mean the readback is correct and that flight crews must explicitly question any doubtful or unusual aspects of clearances rather than depending on controllers to detect readback errors.

Monan, William P.↗

Uncovering Where Compensating Errors Could Hide in ENDF/B-VIII.0

Unconstrained physics spaces between two or more nuclear data observables in a library occur when their values can be simultaneously adjusted without violating the uncertainties in either differential information or simulations of relevant integral experiments. Differential data are often too imprecise to fully bound all nuclear data observables of interest for application simulations. Integral data are simulated with combinations of nuclear data so that an error in one observable may be hidden by a counterbalancing error in another. In this manner compensating errors may lurk within nuclear data libraries and these errors have the potential to undermine the predictive power of neutron transport simulations, particularly in situations where there is no conclusive validation experiment that resembles the application of interest. The EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) developed a preliminary workflow to identify these unconstrained physics spaces by bringing together results from a large collection of integral experiments with their simulated counter-parts as well as differential information that have a one-to-one correspondence to nuclear data. This wealth of information is processed by machine learning tools for subsequent refinement by human experts. Here, we show how the EUCLID work-flow is executed by applying it first to 239 Pu and then to 9 Be nuclear data in ENDF/B-VIII.0.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗