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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Manganese Limitation of Phytoplankton Physiology and Productivity in the Southern Ocean

Although iron and light are understood to regulate the Southern Ocean biological carbon pump, observations have also indicated a possible role for manganese. Low concentrations in Southern Ocean surface waters suggest manganese limitation is possible, but its spatial extent remains poorly constrained and direct manganese limitation of the marine carbon cycle has been neglected by ocean models. Here, using available observations, we develop a new global biogeochemical model and find that phytoplankton in over half of the Southern Ocean cannot attain maximal growth rates because of manganese deficiency. Manganese limitation is most extensive in austral spring and depends on phytoplankton traits related to the size of photosynthetic antennae and the inhibition of manganese uptake by high zinc concentrations in Antarctic waters. Importantly, manganese limitation expands under the increased iron supply of past glacial periods, reducing the response of the biological carbon pump. Overall, these model experiments describe a mosaic of controls on Southern Ocean productivity that emerge from the interplay of light, iron, manganese and zinc, shaping the evolution of Antarctic phytoplankton since the opening of the Drake Passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

One Earth Energy Seismic Interpretation

The objectives of the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project are to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site (ISC Project Narrative, 2020). As part of this project, and as part of the subsurface geologic characterization, 2D seismic data was acquired at both sites. This report summarizes the findings from the 2D and 3D seismic interpretation at the One Earth Energy site near Gibson City, Illinois. The seismic data confirms the stratigraphic continuity of the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone storage interval and the Eau Claire confining unit across the project area. The seismic data also indicates that there are faults that transect the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone Sandstone storage reservoir within the modeled CO 2 plume (for more detailed information, see Faults and Fractures section of One Earth Energy Class VI Permit applications). However, the seismic data also shows that there are no faults within the modeled CO 2 plume that transect the confining unit Eau Claire Formation. The faults that transect the Mt. Simon Arkose Zone Sandstone storage reservoir all tip out in the Lower Mt. Simon Formation and do not reach the overlying Eau Claire confining unit. A small 3D survey acquired around the One Earth Energy #1 characterization well confirms these findings.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis of the Transport and Disposal of Beryllium Moderator Blocks and Greater than Class C (GTCC) Waste

Radioactive waste in the United states is categorized based on its source, radioactivity, and security risk. The categorization method employed by the Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) for low-level radioactive waste is not currently applied to any waste generated by the Department of Energy (DOE) or disposed of in DOE facilities. As a result, there is a large volume of DOE-generated waste with characteristics similar to the NRC’s “Greater than Class C” (GTCC) waste category which presently do not have a path for long-term disposal. Much of this waste cannot undergo the standard commercial disposition process due to it being categorized as Transuranic (TRU) waste under DOE guidelines, due to elevated concentrations of key fission products. Possible solutions to this dilemma are explored in the Environmental Impact Statement for the “Disposal of Greater-Than-Class-C Low Level Radioactive Wave” (EIS-0375). This paper analyzes several EIS possible paths for disposal for this “orphaned” waste. One example that highlights this categorization issue is the spent beryllium cladding that has been extracted from the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) throughout its operational lifetime. These beryllium blocks surround the reactor’s main chambers and components and serve as neutron moderators. This paper will use this particular waste form to analyze the economic and technological viability of transporting and storing this material under the storage and transportation criteria of the Waste isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which was deemed the most feasible disposition path according to the EIS. The example of this waste form used in this paper that highlights this categorization issue is the spent beryllium cladding extracted from Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). These beryllium blocks surround the reactor’s components and serve as neutron moderators, and thus have accumulated high concentration of high-activity transuranic isotopes. This paper analyzed the viability of transporting and storing this material under the storage and transportation criteria of the five primary disposition paths covered in EIS-0375. An array of calculations was carried out to assess the viability of the various disposition paths for the beryllium shipments as well as other waste shipments that fall within the GTCC category. Modeling with MCNP 6.2 was conducted to determine whether the beryllium blocks could be safely stored and transported within a 72-B cask; the standard shipping container for remote-handled, transuranic waste, while also meeting regulatory limits at various disposition paths. A cost analysis of the transportation and long-term disposal paths mentioned in the EIS was also carried out using available data and information from similar waste shipments. Lastly, a geochemical analysis of the various geological repository discussed in the EIS was also carried out using the Geochemists Workbench Release 14. Long-term disposal of the beryllium blocks at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) proved to be the most cost-effective long-term disposition option of the ones considered in the EIS. A dose rate calculation at both contact and remote-handling distances indicate that the analyzed beryllium shipments should not exceed the exposure limits at any of the considered locations. Greater-than-class-C waste has been left in a regulatory state of limbo for years, resulting in backlogs of inventory across several research sites in the United States. Due to its high activity and presence of transuranic isotopes, it is imperative to ensure that it remains inaccessible and sequestered both in its short-term interim as well as a long-term geologic time scale. The information and assessments done in the paper could potentially serve as a reference for any future shipments of this waste form at the WIPP facility as well as other disposition paths that may be considered in the future.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of pore fluid chemistry on the mechanical behavior of a divalent compacted bentonite, an experimental and constitutive study

Ongoing research in isolating high-level nuclear waste and spent fuel has highlighted compacted bentonite as a suitable material for engineered barrier systems in deep geological repositories due to its extraordinary swelling and retention properties. This research focuses on the chemo-mechanical behavior of compacted bentonite exposed to different pore fluids with different concentrations and loading conditions. The study involves swelling pressure and compressibility experiments along with mineralogy analysis employing X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Cation exchange. The tests were conducted on BCV (a Mg/Ca- bentonite) compacted at a dry density of 1.48 ± .02 Mg/m 3 . An advanced chemical-mechanical constitutive model for unsaturated highly expansive clays was adopted to simulate the material response and better understand its behavior. The model is able to account for the main phenomena at both macro and microstructural levels and the interactions between them. The model successfully replicated experimental observations. The XRD analyses support the macroscopic observation, indicating that salinity impacts crystalline swelling as demonstrated by the reduction of basal spacing from 19.27 Å to 15.68 Å when the osmotic suction increases from 0 MPa to 33 MPa. The results suggested that the osmotic pressure generated by the concentration in the pore fluids promotes a reduction in swelling pressures, swelling strains, and crystalline swelling of clay minerals. Also, it affects the pre-consolidation stress and the compressibility of the compacted samples. In conclusion, it was also observed that both solution type and solution concentration impact the clay swelling pressure.

Chemo-mechanical constitutive model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blue Canyon Dome Emplacement Artifacts

The Blue Canyon Dome (BCD) experiments are a series of intermediate scale subsurface chemical explosions designed to explore the geophysical relationship between scaled yields and formation damage. Phase 2 of this experiment involved explosions designed to evaluate the effect of damage, demonstrating the effect of geologic features and previous damage on the near field seismic signatures, not just in amplitude, but also in spectral content. Based on the emplacement effect on the seismic signature, the moment-based yield estimates showed error between 10s-1000s of percent. This report details an alternative approach to emplacement-based filtering techniques of the seismic signatures to improve yield estimates for explosions in damaged rock. The results will be used to develop an improved inverse yield model that leverages the information in the seismic signature for each source based on emplacement type.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new soil mixing layer model for simulating conservative solute loss from initially saturated soil to surface runoff

Surface water pollution due to solute loss from soil to surface runoff is a serious threat to the environment, and it is of great significance to predict the solute loss. While soil mixing layer theory has been widely used to predict the solute loss, it has been observed that the conventional soil mixing layer models with constant mixing layer depth underestimate solute concentration in surface runoff, and thus underestimate the solute loss after surface runoff starts. This study introduced a new soil mixing layer model with a new concept that the mixing layer depth increases downward with time after surface runoff occurs. This new concept was implemented by adding a mixing front between the soil mixing layer and its underlying soil layer, which is conceptually similar to the wetting front of soil infiltration given by the Green-Ampt equation. This is equivalent to treating the soil mixing layer as a deforming control volume. A mechanistic explanation for the new model was presented. This study also developed a closed form solution of the new model. The new model was evaluated by simulating five laboratory experiments conducted by two groups of researchers. The first two experiments have ponding water, and consider different drainage and runoff conditions at both early and late runoff times. The other three experiments do not have ponding water, and consider different infiltration conditions at the bottom of soil boxes. Simulation results of the five experiments show that the new model resolves the underestimation problem of conventional soil mixing layer models. The new model is subject to a total of six limits such as that the new model only considers conservative solute. Three limits are related to the assumptions used to derive the closed form solution, and they may be alleviated in a future research as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate-to-Heavy Daily Precipitation

Because of internal variability in both the real-world and global climate models, it is unclear whether disagreement between models and observations reflects true systematic differences, or different phasing of internal variability in the short observational period. Here, we address this issue through an examination of moderate-to-heavy precipitation in large ensembles of global climate models. We find that model inconsistency with a global observational product is lowest for extratropical precipitation in northern hemisphere winter. The inconsistency is systematically greater for the southern hemisphere winter, but the difference between hemispheres could be due to observational quality. Moderate-to-heavy extratropical winter precipitation is less inconsistent than moderate-to-heavy tropical precipitation in most models. Within the tropics, moderate-to-heavy precipitation is particularly inconsistent with the reference in regions including the Caribbean (especially during JJA), the northern and southern flanks of the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ, and the Indian Ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved constraints on hematite refractive index for estimating climatic effects of dust aerosols

Abstract Uncertainty in desert dust composition poses a big challenge to understanding Earth’s climate across different epochs. Of particular concern is hematite, an iron-oxide mineral dominating the solar absorption by dust particles, for which current estimates of absorption capacity vary by over two orders of magnitude. Here, we show that laboratory measurements of dust composition, absorption, and scattering provide valuable constraints on the absorption potential of hematite, substantially narrowing its range of plausible values. The success of this constraint is supported by results from an atmospheric transport model compared with station-based measurements. Additionally, we identify substantial bias in simulating hematite abundance in dust aerosols with current soil mineralogy descriptions, underscoring the necessity for improved data sources. Encouragingly, the next-generation imaging spectroscopy remote sensing data hold promise for capturing the spatial variability of hematite. These insights have implications for enhancing dust modeling, thus contributing to efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Concentrating Solar Power to Create a Geological Thermal Energy Reservoir for Seasonal Storage and Flexible Power Plant Operation

Abstract We propose a hybrid renewable energy system—a geothermal energy storage system (GeoTES) with solar—to provide low-cost dispatchable power at various timescales from daily, to weekly, to seasonally. GeoTES with solar uses a concentrating solar power collector field to produce hot water that is injected into a sedimentary basin to create a synthetic geothermal resource. The stored geothermal heat can then be dispatched when required by the electrical grid. GeoTES is particularly valuable for a grid with a high penetration of non-flexible renewable technologies such as photovoltaic and wind power. In this work, a sophisticated hybrid model is developed to assess the technical and economic potential of GeoTES by combining IPSEpro, which is a power-cycle simulation tool, and SAM, an economic analysis tool by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The analysis shows with proper initial charging period that the heat loss in storage is almost negligible and is a suitable technology for long-term energy storage. Various power-cycle options are evaluated, and the most suitable power cycle is selected for further study. Annual calculations of the GeoTES system indicate that a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) of 12.4 ¢/kWh e can be achieved for seasonal storage of 4000 h; this value is much lower than the existing long-term storage. The LCOS of GeoTES is insensitive to the storage duration above 8 h, unlike battery and molten-salt thermal storage systems. This result demonstrates that GeoTES can be a competitive seasonal storage technology in the future electricity market. The levelized cost of electricity of the GeoTES system is also carefully analyzed and can vary between 10.0 and 16.4 ¢/kWh e , depending on solar-collector prices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Watershed zonation through hillslope clustering for tractably quantifying above- and below-ground watershed heterogeneity and functions

Abstract. In this study, we develop a watershed zonation approach for characterizing watershed organization and functions in a tractable manner by integrating multiple spatial data layers. We hypothesize that (1) a hillslope is an appropriate unit for capturing the watershed-scale heterogeneity of key bedrock-through-canopy properties and for quantifying the co-variability of these properties representing coupled ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions, (2) remote sensing data layers and clustering methods can be used to identify watershed hillslope zones having the unique distributions of these properties relative to neighboring parcels, and (3) property suites associated with the identified zones can be used to understand zone-based functions, such as response to early snowmelt or drought and solute exports to the river. We demonstrate this concept using unsupervised clustering methods that synthesize airborne remote sensing data (lidar, hyperspectral, and electromagnetic surveys) along with satellite and streamflow data collected in the East River Watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. Results show that (1) we can define the scale of hillslopes at which the hillslope-averaged metrics can capture the majority of the overall variability in key properties (such as elevation, net potential annual radiation, and peak snow-water equivalent – SWE), (2) elevation and aspect are independent controls on plant and snow signatures, (3) near-surface bedrock electrical resistivity (top 20 m) and geological structures are significantly correlated with surface topography and plan species distribution, and (4) K-means, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussian mixture clustering methods generate similar zonation patterns across the watershed. Using independently collected data, we show that the identified zones provide information about zone-based watershed functions, including foresummer drought sensitivity and river nitrogen exports. The approach is expected to be applicable to other sites and generally useful for guiding the selection of hillslope-experiment locations and informing model parameterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydro-mechanical behavior of heated bentonite buffer for geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste: A bench-scale X-ray computed tomography investigation

The behavior of heated bentonite buffer is critical for the security and long-term performance of a geological repository for high-level radioactive waste (HLW). While laboratory column experiments have been conducted to investigate compacted bentonite and coupled THMC (thermal-hydro-mechanical and chemical) processes for a moderate temperature range of up to 100 °C, data for a higher temperature range are limited. Understanding bentonite behavior and coupled THMC processes under higher temperatures (e.g., up to 200 °C) could allow for a more economic repository design and would expand the data and knowledge base for more reliable modeling. In this study, a bench-scale experiment was conducted in a compacted bentonite column experiencing both heating up to 200 °C in the center and hydration from a sand-clay boundary surrounding the column. During the experiment run for 1.5 years, frequent X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning of bentonite provided insights into the spatiotemporal evolution of (1) hydration/dehydration, (2) clay swelling/shrinkage, (3) displacement, and (4) mineral precipitation. After the experiment, a comprehensive post-dismantling characterization of bentonite samples was conducted. Results showed that the bentonite hydration was axi-symmetrical despite the initial heterogeneity due to packing, confirming the ability of bentonite to seal fast flow/transport paths. Further, compared to a non-heated control experiment, the heated column showed greater CT density variations along the radial distance, indicating that homogenization of bentonite might be more difficult if a temperature gradient is maintained in the repository. Precipitation of an anhydrite layer occurred in the inner hot zone, pointing to potential concerns about salt precipitation causing canister corrosion. Ultimately, the experiments provided a high-resolution window into the strongly dynamic and coupled behavior of bentonite exposed to heating, hydration and swelling, which will be valuable for improving modeling of coupled processes, especially for the early state of a HLW repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Copper availability governs nitrous oxide accumulation in wetland soils and stream sediments

Denitrification is microbially-mediated through enzymes containing metal cofactors. Laboratory studies of pure cultures have highlighted that the availability of Cu, required for the multicopper enzyme nitrous oxide reductase, can limit N2O reduction. However, in natural aquatic systems, such as wetlands and hyporheic zones in stream beds, the role of Cu in controlling denitrification remains incompletely understood. In this study, we collected soils and sediments from three natural environments -- riparian wetlands, marsh wetlands, and a stream -- to investigate their nitrogen species transformation activity at background Cu levels and different supplemented Cu loadings. All of the systems contained solid-phase associated Cu below or around geological levels (40 - 280 nmol g-1) and exhibited low dissolved Cu (3-50 nM), which made them appropriate sites for evaluating the effect of limited Cu availability on denitrification. In laboratory incubation experiments, high concentrations of N2O accumulated in all microcosms lacking Cu amendment except for one stream sediment sample. With Cu added to provide dissolved concentrations at trace levels (10-300 nM), reduction rate of N2O to N 2 in the wetland soils and stream sediments was enhanced. A kinetic model could account for the trends in nitrogen species by combining the reactions for microbial reduction of NO 3 - to NO 2 -/N 2 O/N 2 and abiotic reduction of NO 2 - to N 2 . The model revealed that the rate of N 2 O to N 2 conversion increased significantly in the presence of Cu. For riparian wetland soils and stream sediments, the kinetic model also suggested that overall denitrification is driven by abiotic reduction of NO2- in the presence of inorganic electron donors. This study demonstrated that natural aquatic systems containing Cu at concentrations less than or equal to crustal abundances may display incomplete reduction of N 2 O to N 2 that would cause N 2 O accumulation and release to the atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

M3SF-24LL010301052-Summary of SUPCRTNE testing and Rev0 database

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010301052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite Disposal R&D work package SF-24LL01030105. SUPCRTNE is being developed as the primary engine for thermodynamic database development in support of geologic disposal of high-level nuclear waste. As used here, “SUPCRT” refers to both a computer program and its supporting database. Additional letters or numbers refer to specific variants (SUPCRT92, (Johnson et al., 1992); SUPCRTBL, (Zimmer et al., 2016); and SUPCRTNE). A SUPCRT database contains the data required to calculate the thermodynamic properties of solid, gas, and aqueous species over a wide range of temperature and pressure. Normally, SUPCRT is used to create a higher-level database that directly supports modeling and simulation codes such as EQ3/6, GWB, PHREEQC, and PFLOTRAN.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, in this study, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Biological nitrogen fixation↗