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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Two planar polishing methods by using FIB technique: Toward ultimate top-down delayering for failure analysis

Presently two major limiting factors are hindering the failure analysis (FA) development during the semiconductor manufacturing process and technology improvement: (1) Impossibility of manual polishing on the edge dies due to the amenability of layer peeling off; (2) Abundant demand of multi-locations FA, especially focusing different levels of layers simultaneously. Aiming at resolving these limitations, here we demonstrate two unique high precision polishing methods by using focused ion beam (FIB) technique. One is the vertical top down chemical etching at the aimed location; the other one is the planar top down slicing. Using the FIB for delayering not only solves these problems mentioned above, but also offers significant advantages over physical planar polishing methods such as: (1) having a better control of the delayering progress, (2) enabling precisely milling at a region of interest, (3) providing the prevention of over-delayering and (4) possessing capability to capture images at the region of interest simultaneously and cut into the die directly to expose the exact failure without damaging other sections of the specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Failure of wooden sandwich beam reinforced with glass/epoxy faces

The mechanical properties and the failure of wooden beam strengthened with two faces from glass/epoxy composite and a wooden beam without strengthening was studied. Stresses and deflections on both beams, which are imposed in three point bending loading. On the idealized geometry of the specimens with detailed nonlinear orthotropic analysis was performed with a finite elements program. The failure study of the wooden beams was performed, applying the criterion of Tsai-Hill. The shear strength of the adhesive was taken into account. All the specimens were tested with three point bending loading and the experimental results were compared to those of the theoretical approach with the finite elements analysis. Comparing the results, the advantage of strengthened wooden beam against the simple wooden beam becomes obvious. Theoretical predictions were in good agreement with experimental results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1–5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, it is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The nature of catastrophic OLED lighting panel failure

Catastrophic failure due to electrical shorting is currently one of the key reliability challenges for commercial organic light emitting diode (OLED) solid-state lighting panels. Here, we explore the origin of panel-killing shorts through the use of a temperature-selective electroluminescence imaging technique that allows us to locate them early in their life cycle and study their growth over time. We identify two general classes of panel defect, termed bright spots and hot spots, which respectively originate from indium-tin-oxide agglomerations and microscale organic semiconductor dust particles on the substrate. The former are largely benign, whereas the latter can lead to local shunts that grow over time and cause catastrophic failure. We understand the growth process as a self-reinforcing cycle, where shunt-induced heating volatilizes the surrounding organic semiconductor, which in turn expands the shunt and leads to even more heating. Finally based on these results, we identify several practical strategies to arrest the growth of early-stage shorts or prevent them entirely, which could reduce the cost and improve the reliability of OLED lighting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of grain size on damage and failure in two-phase materials: Homogenized CuPb

It is well known that spall failure strongly depends on the microstructure of a material. There have been numerous studies to study the effect of grain size on the overall spall strength and the total amount of damage in single element metals like copper. However, such systematic studies remain rare in two-phase materials and alloys. In this work, two incipient spall experiments were performed on a Cu–1%Pb alloy to understand the effect of grain size on the damage and failure in a two-phase material. Overall, these results showed that even though the spall strength did not change as a function of grain size, there were significant differences in the total amount of damage as a function of grain size. A clear increase in the total damage present in the material was seen as the grain size was increased from 32 to either 70 or 75 μm in either of the experiments. Furthermore, this difference was attributed to variations in the void growth rate as the grain size was increased.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Worldwide Physics-Based Lifetime Prediction of c-Si Modules Due to Solder-Bond Failure

Lifetime prediction of the fielded c-Si solar modules due to location-specific weather conditions has been an important topic of photovoltaic research and the economic viability of solar energy. Data analytic techniques such as the performance ratio method, Statistical clear sky model, and Suns-Vmp methods quantify the degradation from measured data of a solar farm, however, the nonlinear time-dependence and correlated degradations make it difficult to use the empirical degradation rates for ultimate lifetime projection. In this article, we propose a complementary physics-based model to predict the solder bond failure caused by mechanical stress associated with the variations of the temperature. Integrating the worldwide weather information from NASA/NSRDB databases, the model predicts the location-specific output-power degradation and the lifetime of a module due to solder bond failure. The model parameters are calibrated against qualification tests involving thermal cycling of specific batches of modules from a specific technology/manufacturer. The results may be summarized as: 1) Modules installed at higher latitudes show a longer lifetime due to reduced damage accumulation. 2) The reduction of temperature fluctuation close to large bodies of water, such as seashores, increases solder bond lifetime significantly. 3) Relatively speaking, modules installed close to the Tropic of Cancer/Capricorn (23.5 degrees North/South) suffer from a higher solder bond damage and have a shorter lifetime, suggesting a conservative design. This model should serve as a building block of a comprehensive reliability framework that can predict the lifetime of a module that experiences simultaneous and correlated degradation mechanisms involving yellowing, corrosion, and potential-induced degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SU-E-T-105: An FMEA Survey of Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) Step and Shoot Dose Delivery Failure Modes

Purpose: To assess the perception of TG-142 tolerance level dose delivery failures in IMRT and the application of FMEA process to this specific aspect of IMRT. Methods: An online survey was distributed to medical physicists worldwide that briefly described 11 different failure modes (FMs) covered by basic quality assurance in step- and-shoot IMRT at or near TG-142 tolerance criteria levels. For each FM, respondents estimated the worst case H&N patient percent dose error and FMEA scores for Occurrence, Detectability, and Severity. Demographic data was also collected. Results: 181 individual and three group responses were submitted. 84% were from North America. Most (76%) individual respondents performed at least 80% clinical work and 92% were nationally certified. Respondent medical physics experience ranged from 2.5–45 years (average 18 years). 52% of individual respondents were at least somewhat familiar with FMEA, while 17% were not familiar. Several IMRT techniques, treatment planning systems and linear accelerator manufacturers were represented. All FMs received widely varying scores ranging from 1–10 for occurrence, at least 1–9 for detectability, and at least 1–7 for severity. Ranking FMs by RPN scores also resulted in large variability, with each FM being ranked both most risky (1st ) and least risky (11th) by different respondents. On average MLC modeling had the highest RPN scores. Individual estimated percent dose errors and severity scores positively correlated (p<0.10) for each FM as expected. No universal correlations were found between the demographic information collected and scoring, percent dose errors, or ranking. Conclusion: FMs investigated overall were evaluated as low to medium risk, with average RPNs less than 110. The ranking of 11 FMs was not agreed upon by the community. Large variability in FMEA scoring may be caused by individual interpretation and/or experience, thus reflecting the subjective nature of the FMEA tool.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-545: MLC Distance Travelled as a Predictor for Motor Failure

Purpose: To study the frequency of Multi-Leaf Collimator (MLC) leaf failures, investigate methods to predict them and reduce linac downtime. Methods: A Varian HD120 MLC was used in our study. The hyperterminal MLC errors logged from 06/2012 to 12/2014 were collected. Along with the hyperterminal errors, the MLC motor changes and all other MLC interventions by the linear accelerator engineer were recorded. The MLC dynalog files were also recorded on a daily basis for each treatment and during linac QA. The dynalog files were analyzed to calculate root mean square errors (RMS) and cumulative MLC travel distance per motor. An in-house MatLab code was used to analyze all dynalog files, record RMS errors and calculate the distance each MLC traveled per day. Results: A total of 269 interventions were recorded over a period of 18 months. Of these, 146 included MLC motor leaf change, 39 T-nut replacements, and 84 MLC cleaning sessions. Leaves close to the middle of each side required the most maintenance. In the A bank, leaves A27 to A40 recorded 73% of all interventions, while the same leaves in the B bank counted for 52% of the interventions. On average, leaves in the middle of the bank had their motors changed approximately every 1500m of travel. Finally, it was found that the number of RMS errors increased prior to an MLC motor change. Conclusion: An MLC dynalog file analysis software was developed that can be used to log daily MLC usage. Our eighteen-month data analysis showed that there is a correlation between the distance an MLC travels, the RMS and the life of the MLC motor. We plan to use this tool to predict MLC motor failures and with proper and timely intervention, reduce the downtime of the linac during clinical hours.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Collection of Disk Failure Events from Alpine, the Parallel File System for Summit Supercomputer

This dataset contains disk (HDD) failure events collected from the Alpine storage system of the Summit supercomputer, hosted at OLCF, spanning from January 4, 2019, to December 21, 2023 (a total of 4 years, 11 months, and 18 days), covering 89% of its operational lifetime. It includes 3,766 disk failure events, each recorded with its detection timestamp (in ISO 8601 format) and detailed by its location within the storage system - rack, enclosure, and drive slot number.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Disk Failure Dataset from the Campaign Storage System

This dataset consists of 1,389 disk (HDD) failure events collected from the Campaign storage system at LANL. The Campaign system supported various compute platforms throughout its lifespan, including Cielo, Fire, Ice, and notably, the Trinity supercomputer. Each recorded event includes its detection timestamp (in ISO 8601 format) and details such as its location within the storage system—rack, enclosure, and drive slot number. The data, spanning from May 4, 2021, to July 25, 2023 (2 years, 2 months, and 22 days), represents failure events from the terminal years of Campaign's operational period, accounting for 26% of its total operational time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiaxial Creep-Fatigue and Creep-Ratcheting Failures of Grade 91 and Haynes 230 Alloys Toward Addressing Design Issues of Gen IV Nuclear Power Plants

The proposed research will develop systematic sets of uniaxial and multiaxial experimental data at a very high temperature (850-950°C) for Alloy 617. The loading histories to be prescribed in the experiments will induce creep-fatigue and creep-ratcheting failure mechanisms. These experimental responses will be scrutinized in order to quantify the influences of temperature and creep on fatigue and ratcheting failures. A unified constitutive model (UCM) will be developed and validated against these experimental responses. The improved UCM will be incorporated into the widely used finite element commercial software packages ANSYS. The modified ANSYS will be validated so that it can be used for evaluating the very high temperature ASME-NH design-by-analysis methodology for Alloy 617 and thereby addressing the ASME-NH design code issues.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Taxonomy for Common-Cause Failure Vulnerability and Mitigation

Applying current guidance and practices for common-cause failure (CCF) mitigation to digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems has proven problematic, and the regulatory environment has been unpredictable. The potential for CCF vulnerability inhibits I&C modernization, thereby challenging the long-term sustainability of existing plants. For new plants and advanced reactor concepts, concern about CCF vulnerability in highly integrated digital I&C systems imposes a design burden that results in higher costs and increased complexity. The regulatory uncertainty in determining which mitigation strategies will be acceptable (e.g., what diversity is needed and how much is sufficient) drives designers to adopt complicated, costly solutions devised for existing plants. To address the conditions that constrain the transition to digital I&C technology by the US nuclear industry, crosscutting research is needed to resolve uncertainty, demonstrate necessary characteristics, and establish an objective basis for qualification of digital technology for nuclear power plant (NPP) I&C applications. To fulfill this research need, Oak Ridge National Laboratory is investigating mitigation of CCF vulnerability for nuclear-qualified applications. The outcome of this research is expected to contribute to a fundamentally sound, comprehensive basis to qualify digital technology for nuclear power applications. This report documents the development of a CCF taxonomy. The basis for the CCF taxonomy was generated by determining consistent terminology and establishing a classification approach. The terminology is based on definitions from standards, guides, and relevant nuclear power industry technical reports. The classification approach is derived from identified classification schemes focused on I&C systems and key characteristics, including failure modes. The CCF taxonomy provides the basis for a systematic organization of key systems aspects relevant to analyzing the potential for CCF vulnerability and the suitability of mitigation techniques. Development of an effective CCF taxonomy will help to provide a framework for establishing the objective analysis and assessment capabilities desired to facilitate rigorous identification of fault types and triggers that are the fundamental elements of CCF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Pad 18 Spent Mercury Gold Trap Stainless Steel Container Failure

Failure of the Pad 18 spent mercury gold trap stainless steel waste container is principally attributed to corrosion induced by degradation of plasticized polyvinyl chloride (pPVC) waste packaging material. Dehydrochlorination of pPVC polymer by thermal and/or radiolytic degradation is well-known to evolve HCl gas, which is highly corrosive to stainless steel and other metals in the presence of moisture. Degradation of the pPVC packaging material was likely caused by radiolysis in the presence of tritium gas within the waste container, though other degradation mechanisms (aging, thermo-oxidation, plasticizer migration) over 30 years storage may have contributed. Corrosion was also likely enhanced by the crevice in the container weld design, and may have been enhanced by the presence of tritiated water. Similar non-failed spent mercury gold trap waste containers did not show radiographic evidence of plastic packaging or trapped free liquid within the container. Therefore, those containers are not expected to exhibit similar failures. Halogenated polymers such as pPVC subject to degradation can evolve halide gases such as HCl, which is corrosive in the presence of moisture and can generate pressure in sealed systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Developing Component-Specific Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors

This report presents the development of component-specific common cause failure (CCF) prior distributions for five component categories: pump, valve, strainer, generator, and other. For ease in comparing these component-specific CCF priors with the 2015 generic CCF priors, the same method used to develop the 2015 generic CCF priors was also employed in this report, along with the same set of failure data (1997–2015) featured in INL/EXT-21-43723. For selected CCF templates, this report also evaluates the effects of applying component-specific priors to CCF parameters.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fatigue failure at low temperatures

The fatigue failure of steel 20 at low temperatures is considered. Strain hardening of the surface layers is found to occur in adiabatic conditions at low temperatures. That increases the fatigue strength. Fatigue cracks form and grow along the grain boundaries. The influence of impurities on the fatigue failure of low-carbon steel is studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Influence of the Lattice Parameter on the Low-Temperature Brittle Failure of Metals

Abstract—The brittle failure of metals at low temperatures is analyzed. It is shown that the ductile–brittle transition temperature depends on the lattice parameter: with increase in the lattice parameter, the ductile–brittle transition temperature falls. The brittle failure of a material depends on its crystal lattice and its electron structure and on whether impurities are present at the grain boundaries. Increase in brittle strength of steels by optimization of their heat treatment is proposed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Accuracy Indicators of Androgen Suppression Therapy Failure for Prostate Cancer—A Modeling Study

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug’s usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗