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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Using an explicit emission tagging method in global modeling of source‐receptor relationships for black carbon in the Arctic: Variations, sources, and transport pathways

Abstract We introduce an explicit emission tagging technique in the Community Atmosphere Model to quantify source‐region‐resolved characteristics of black carbon (BC), focusing on the Arctic. Explicit tagging of BC source regions without perturbing the emissions provides a physically consistent and computationally efficient approach to establish source‐receptor relationships and transport pathways. Our analysis shows that the contributions of major source regions to the global BC burden are not proportional to the respective emissions due to strong region‐dependent removal rates and lifetimes, while the contributions to BC direct radiative forcing show a near‐linear dependence on their respective contributions to the burden. Arctic BC concentrations, deposition, and source contributions all have strong seasonal variations. Eastern Asia contributes the most to the wintertime Arctic BC burden, but has much less impact on lower‐level concentrations and deposition. Northern Europe emissions are more important to both surface concentration and deposition in winter than in summer. The largest contribution to Arctic BC in the summer is from Northern Asia. Although local emissions contribute less than 10% to the annual mean BC burden and deposition within the Arctic, the per‐emission efficiency is much higher than for non‐Arctic sources. The interannual variability (1996–2005) due to meteorology is small in annual mean BC burden and radiative forcing but is significant in yearly seasonal means over the Arctic. When a slow aging treatment of BC is introduced, the increase of BC lifetime and burden is source dependent. Global BC forcing‐per‐burden efficiency also increases primarily due to changes in BC vertical distributions.

Wang, Hailong↗
DOE OSTI2015

High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America

This study performs high-spatial-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over a very large domain (7200 km × 6180 km, covering much of North America) to explore changes in mean and extreme precipitation in the mid and late 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We evaluate WRF model performance for a historical simulation and future projections, applying the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) as initial and boundary conditions with and without a bias correction. WRF simulations using boundary and initial conditions from both versions of CCSM4 show smaller biases versus evaluation data sets than does CCSM4 over western North America. WRF simulations also improve spatial details of precipitation over much of North America. However, driving the WRF with the bias-corrected CCSM4 does not always reduce the bias. WRF-projected changes in precipitation include decreasing intensity over the southwestern United States, increasing intensity over the eastern United States and most of Canada, and an increase in the number of days with heavy precipitation over much of North America. Projected precipitation changes are more evident in the late 21st century than the mid 21st century, and they are more evident under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 in the late 21st century. Uncertainties in the projected changes in precipitation due to different warming scenarios are non-negligible. Differences in summer precipitation changes between WRF and CCSM4 are significant over most of the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Precise relative locations for earthquakes in the northeast Pacific region

We report that double-difference methods applied to cross-correlation measured Rayleigh wave time shifts are an effective tool to improve epicentroid locations and relative origin time shifts in remote regions. We apply these methods to seismicity offshore of southwestern Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest, occurring along the boundaries of the Pacific and Juan de Fuca (including the Explorer Plate and Gorda Block) Plates. The Blanco, Mendocino, Revere-Dellwood, Nootka, and Sovanco fracture zones host the majority of this seismicity, largely consisting of strike-slip earthquakes. The Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda spreading ridges join these fracture zones and host normal faulting earthquakes. Our results show that at least the moderate-magnitude activity clusters along fault strike, supporting suggestions of large variations in seismic coupling along oceanic transform faults. Our improved relative locations corroborate earlier interpretations of the internal deformation in the Explorer and Gorda Plates. North of the Explorer Plate, improved locations support models that propose northern extension of the Revere-Dellwood fault. Relocations also support interpretations that favor multiple parallel active faults along the Blanco Transform Fault Zone. Seismicity of the western half of the Blanco appears more scattered and less collinear than the eastern half, possibly related to fault maturity. We use azimuthal variations in the Rayleigh wave cross-correlation amplitude to detect and model rupture directivity for a moderate size earthquake along the eastern Blanco Fault. Lastly, the observations constrain the seismogenic zone geometry and suggest a relatively narrow seismogenic zone width of 2 to 4 km.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Major disruption of D" beneath Alaska

D'' represents one of the most dramatic thermal and compositional layers within our planet. In particular, global tomographic models display relatively fast patches at the base of the mantle along the circum-Pacific which are generally attributed to slab debris. Such distinct patches interact with the bridgmanite (Br) to post-bridgmanite (PBr) phase boundary to generate particularly strong heterogeneity at their edges. Most seismic observations for the D'' come from the lower mantle S wave triplication (Scd). Here, in this work, we exploit the USArray waveform data to examine one of these sharp transitions in structure beneath Alaska. From west to east beneath Alaska, we observed three different characteristics in D'': (1) the western region with a strong Scd, requiring a sharp δVs = 2.5% increase; (2) the middle region with no clear Scd phases, indicating a lack of D'' (or thin Br-PBr layer); and (3) the eastern region with strong Scd phase, requiring a gradient increase in δVs. To explain such strong lateral variation in the velocity structure, chemical variations must be involved. We suggest that the western region represents relatively normal mantle. In contrast, the eastern region is influenced by a relic slab that has subducted down to the lowermost mantle. In the middle region, we infer an upwelling structure that disrupts the Br-PBr phase boundary. Such an interpretation is based upon a distinct pattern of travel time delays, waveform distortions, and amplitude patterns that reveal a circular-shaped anomaly about 5° across which can be modeled synthetically as a plume-like structure rising about 400 km high with a shear velocity reduction of ~5%, similar to geodynamic modeling predictions of upwellings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty in future projections of the North Pacific subtropical high and its implication for California winter precipitation change: FUTURE CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION

This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multi-model analysis, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, shows a robust sea-level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley Cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. However, over the eastern North Pacific, the projected NPSH changes exhibit a substantial inter-model spread, resulting in uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This inter-model spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2017

Increased water yield due to the hemlock woolly adelgid infestation in New England

Abstract Over the past few decades, a hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) infestation has significantly affected eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) in the eastern U.S., and warmer winters are expected to promote a continued northward expansion in the future. Here we report a water yield increase due to the HWA infestation in New England, U.S. Since the first observation in 2002, peak growing season evapotranspiration over a hemlock‐dominated area has decreased by 24–37% in 2012 and 2013. Over the same time period, the water yield from the study catchment significantly increased as compared to an adjacent catchment with less hemlock cover. The net increase was estimated to be as much as 15.6% of annual water yield in 2014 based on an ecohydrological modeling analysis. This study indicates that the ongoing hemlock decline is also largely altering hydrological regimes in the northeastern U.S.

Kim, Jihyun↗
DOE OSTI2017

Aerosol and cloud microphysics covariability in the northeast Pacific boundary layer estimated with ship-based and satellite remote sensing observations: NE Pacific Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Ship measurements collected over the northeast Pacific along transects between the port of Los Angeles (33.7°N, 118.2°W) and Honolulu (21.3°N, 157.8°W) during May to August 2013 were utilized to investigate the covariability between marine low cloud microphysical and aerosol properties. Ship-based retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ) from a Sun photometer and liquid water path (LWP) from a microwave radiometer were combined to derive cloud droplet number concentration Nd and compute a cloud-aerosol interaction (ACI) metric defined as ACICCN = ∂ ln(Nd)/∂ ln(CCN), with CCN denoting the cloud condensation nuclei concentration measured at 0.4% (CCN0.4) and 0.3% (CCN0.3) supersaturation. Analysis of CCN0.4, accumulation mode aerosol concentration (Na), and extinction coefficient (σext) indicates that Na and σext can be used as CCN0.4 proxies for estimating ACI. ACICCN derived from 10 min averaged Nd and CCN0.4 and CCN0.3, and CCN0.4 regressions using Na and σext, produce high ACICCN: near 1.0, that is, a fractional change in aerosols is associated with an equivalent fractional change in Nd. ACICCN computed in deep boundary layers was small (ACICCN = 0.60), indicating that surface aerosol measurements inadequately represent the aerosol variability below clouds. Satellite cloud retrievals from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and GOES-15 data were compared against ship-based retrievals and further analyzed to compute a satellite-based ACICCN. Satellite data correlated well with their ship-based counterparts with linear correlation coefficients equal to or greater than 0.78. Combined satellite Nd and ship-based CCN0.4 and Na yielded a maximum ACICCN = 0.88–0.92, a value slightly less than the ship-based ACICCN, but still consistent with aircraft-based studies in the eastern Pacific.

Painemal, David↗
DOE OSTI2017

Genesis, Pathways, and Terminations of Intense Global Water Vapor Transport in Association with Large-Scale Climate Patterns: IVT-CONNECT

The CONNected objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is applied to global Integrated Water Vapor Transport data from the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications – Version 2 reanalysis product for the period of 1980 to 2016. The algorithm generates life-cycle records in time and space evolving strong vapor transport events. We show five regions, located in the midlatitudes, where events typically exist (off the coast of the southeast United States, eastern China, eastern South America, off the southern tip of South Africa, and in the southeastern Pacific Ocean). Global statistics show distinct genesis and termination regions and global seasonal peak frequency during Northern Hemisphere late fall/winter and Southern Hemisphere winter. In addition, the event frequency and geographical location are shown to be modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific North American Pattern, and the quasi-biennial oscillation. Moreover, a positive linear trend in the annual number of objects is reported, increasing by 3.58 objects year-over-year.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia

In this work, we used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of large-scale precipitation induced by the feedback of EAWM-related changes in wind on dust emissions increase by 10-30% in winter because of the increase in surface air temperature and the anomalous circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying the Effects of Snowpack on Soil Thermal and Carbon Dynamics of the Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

Snow insulation effects modify soil and carbon dynamics in northern middle to high latitudes (45°–90°N). This study incorporates these effects by introducing a snow model into an existing soil thermal model in a biogeochemistry modeling framework, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. The coupled model is used to quantify snow insulation effects on carbon and soil thermal dynamics in 45°–90°N region for the historical period (2003–2010) and the future period (2017–2099) under two climate scenarios. The revised model captures the snow insulation effects and improves the estimates of soil thermal dynamics and the land freeze-thaw as well as terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Historical mean cold-season soil temperature at 5 cm depth driven with satellite-based snow data is 6.4°C warmer in comparison with the original model simulation. Frozen area in late spring is estimated to shrink mainly over eastern Siberia, in central to eastern Europe, and along southern Canada in November. During each nongrowing season in the historical period, 0.41 Pg more soil C is released due to warmer soil temperature estimated using the new model. During 2003–2010, the revised model estimates that the region accumulated 0.86 Pg less C due to weaker gross primary production, leading to a regional C loss at 0.19 PgC/year. The revised model projects that the region will lose 38–51% permafrost area by 2100 and continue to be a C source under the low-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) but to be gradually transitioning into a weak sink in the latter half of the 21st century under the high-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Single–Column Model Simulations of Subtropical Marine Boundary–Layer Cloud Transitions Under Weakening Inversions

Results are presented of the GASS/EUCLIPSE single-column model inter-comparison study on the subtropical marine low-level cloud transition. A central goal is to establish the performance of state-of-the-art boundary-layer schemes for weather and climate models for this cloud regime, using large-eddy simulations of the same scenes as a reference. A novelty is that the comparison covers four different cases instead of one, in order to broaden the covered parameter space. Three cases are situated in the North-Eastern Pacific, while one reflects conditions in the North-Eastern Atlantic. A set of variables is considered that reflects key aspects of the transition process, making use of simple metrics to establish the model performance. Using this method some longstanding problems in low level cloud representation are identified. Considerable spread exists among models concerning the cloud amount, its vertical structure and the associated impact on radiative transfer. Here, the sign and amplitude of these biases differ somewhat per case, depending on how far the transition has progressed. After cloud breakup the ensemble median exhibits the well-known “too few too bright” problem. The boundary layer deepening rate and its state of decoupling are both underestimated, while the representation of the thin capping cloud layer appears complicated by a lack of vertical resolution. Encouragingly, some models are successful in representing the full set of variables, in particular the vertical structure and diurnal cycle of the cloud layer in transition. An intriguing result is that the median of the model ensemble performs best, inspiring a new approach in subgrid parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Large-scale meteorological control on the spatial pattern of wintertime PM 2.5 pollution over China

The frequent episodes of severe air pollution over China during recent years have posed serious health threats to densely populated eastern China. Although several studies investigated the linkage between enhanced severity and frequency of air pol-lution and the large-scale weather patterns over China, the day-to-day covariability between them, as well as its local and remote mechanisms, has not been systemati-cally documented. The wintertime synoptic covariability between PM 2.5 and large-scale meteorological fields is studied using surface observations of PM 2.5 in 2013/2014–2016/2017 and ERA-Interim meteorological fields through maximum covariance analysis (MCA). The first MCA mode (MCA1) suggests a consistent accumulation of ambient PM 2.5 as a result of weakened winds that block the pollut-ant removal passage in heavily polluted areas of eastern China, as well as moist air from southeast coast favoring haze formation. A northeast–southwest belt that extends into northeastern China and central China on each end is more sensitive to MCA1. The second MCA mode (MCA2) shows a north–south dipole in PM 2.5 linked to the contrast of boundary layer height and surface wind speed between northern and southern regions of China. Spatial patterns of both modes are supported by the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model with realistic emission inventory. The spatial patterns of the two modes are robust on the interannual time scales. Based on that, we investigate the variability of the first two modes of the identified modes on the multidecadal scale by projecting GPM_500 pattern to 1981–2010. Correlation analysis of the projected time series and climate indices over 30 years indicates the possible linkage of Arctic oscillation, ENSO indices, Pacific decadal oscillation and east Atlantic/western Russia to regional air pollution patterns over China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗
DOE OSTI2019

The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the monsoon over southern India: New observations from the INCOMPASS IOP

Some of the highest summer monsoon rainfall in South Asia falls on the windward slopes of the Western Ghats mountains on India's west coast and offshore over the eastern Arabian Sea. Understanding of the processes determining the spatial distribution and temporal variability of this region remains incomplete. In this paper, new Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) aircraft and ground‐based measurements of the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats and upstream of them are presented and placed within the context of remote‐sensing observations and reanalysis. The transition from widespread rainfall over the eastern Arabian Sea to rainfall over the Western Ghats is documented in high spatial and temporal resolution. Heavy rainfall offshore during the campaign was associated primarily with mid‐tropospheric humidity, secondarily with sea surface temperature, and only weakly with orographic blocking. A mid‐tropospheric dry intrusion suppressed deep convection offshore in the latter half of the campaign, allowing the build‐up of low‐level humidity in the onshore flow and enhancing rainfall over the mountains. Rainfall on the lee side of the Western Ghats occurred during the latter half of the campaign in association with enhanced mesoscale easterly upslope flow. Diurnal cycles in rainfall offshore (maximum in the morning) and on the mountains (maximum in the afternoon) were observed. Considerable zonal and temporal variability was seen in the offshore boundary layer, suggesting the presence of convective downdraughts and cold pools. Persistent drying of the subcloud mixed layer several hundred kilometres off the coast was observed, suggesting strong mixing between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. These observations provide quantitative targets to test models and suggest hypotheses on the physical mechanisms determining the distribution and variability in rainfall in the Western Ghats region.

Fletcher, Jennifer K.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of an acoustic deterrent to reduce bat mortalities at an Illinois wind farm

ABSTRACT From 2014 to 2016, GE Renewable Energy and California Ridge Wind Energy tested an ultrasonic bat deterrent system during the autumn bat migration period at an operating wind farm in Illinois, USA. The deterrent system consisted of air‐jet ultrasonic emitters mounted on nacelles and towers in a different configuration each year. Each year we conducted a randomized block experiment to determine whether the acoustic deterrent reduced bat mortalities at the wind farm. Effectiveness was based on estimates of bat mortalities during 3‐day trials. The operation of the acoustic deterrent resulted in significant overall bat fatality reductions of 29.2% ( = 7.5%) and 32.5% ( = 6.8%) in 2014 and 2015, respectively. All‐bat fatality rates were not reduced in 2016; however, annual all‐bat effectiveness estimates were influenced by species composition. We analyzed deterrent effectiveness for eastern red ( Lasiurus borealis ), hoary ( Lasiurus cinereus ), and silver‐haired ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ) bats, the 3 species most commonly found during the carcass searches. Hoary bats were consistently deterred each year, but annual deterrent effectiveness varied for eastern red and silver‐haired bats. © 2019 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Romano, W. Brad↗
DOE OSTI2019

Transcatheter arterial infusion for pancreatic cancer: a 10-year National Cancer Center experience in 115 patients and literature review

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter arterial infusion (TAI) for the treatment of pancreatic cancer in patients ineligible for or refractory to systemic chemotherapy. Materials and methods: The medical records of 115 consecutive patients (mean age, 58.9 years; 71 males) with documented pancreatic cancer ineligible for or refractory to systemic chemotherapy and underwent TAI between February 2007 and January 2017 were reviewed. Results: A total of 224 TAI sessions [mean, 1.9 (range 1–8)] were performed. Technical success rate was 100%. Disease control (i.e., complete response, partial response, and stable disease) was achieved in 72 (62.6%) patients. The median progression-free survival and median overall survival were 56 days and 147 days, respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that disease control, progression-free survival, and overall survival were significantly improved in patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of ≤ 1 compared with those in patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of 2 (all p < 0.001) and in patients who received > 1 sessions of TAI compared with that in patients who received only 1 session of TAI (p = 0.012, < 0.001, and = 0.002, respectively). A major complication in the form of cerebral infarction occurred in 1 (0.9%) patient 1 day after the procedure. This patient was treated with conservative therapy and recovered without permanent adverse sequelae. No other major complications were observed. Conclusions: TAI may be effective and safe for the treatment of pancreatic cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases. Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evidence of Specific MJO Phase Occurrence with Summertime California Central Valley Extreme Hot Weather

This study examines associations between California Central Valley (CCV) heat waves and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). These heat waves have major economic impact. Our prior work showed that CCV heat waves are frequently preceded by convection over the tropical Indian and eastern Pacific oceans, in patterns identifiable with MJO phases. The main analysis method is lagged composites (formed after each MJO phase pair) of CCV synoptic station temperature, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and velocity potential (VP). Over the CCV, positive temperature anomalies occur only after the Indian Ocean (phases 2–3) or eastern Pacific Ocean (phases 8–1) convection (implied by OLR and VP fields). The largest fractions of CCV hot days occur in the two weeks after onset of those two phase pairs. OLR and VP composites have significant subsidence and convergence above divergence over the CCV during heat waves, and these structures are each part of larger patterns having significant areas over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Prior studies showed that CCV heat waves can be roughly grouped into two clusters: Cluster 2 is preceded by a heat wave over northwestern North America, while Cluster 1 is not. OLR and VP composite analyses are applied separately to these two clusters. However, for Cluster 2, the subsidence and VP over the CCV are not significant, and the large-scale VP pattern has low correlation with the MJO lagged composite field. Therefore, the association between the MJO convection and subsequent CCV heat wave is more evident in Cluster 1 than Cluster 2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗