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Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Biomolecule Sequencer: Next-Generation DNA Sequencing Technology for In-Flight Environmental Monitoring, Research, and Beyond

On the International Space Station (ISS), technologies capable of rapid microbial identification and disease diagnostics are not currently available. NASA still relies upon sample return for comprehensive, molecular-based sample characterization. Next-generation DNA sequencing is a powerful approach for identifying microorganisms in air, water, and surfaces onboard spacecraft. The Biomolecule Sequencer payload, manifested to SpaceX-9 and scheduled on the Increment 4748 research plan (June 2016), will assess the functionality of a commercially-available next-generation DNA sequencer in the microgravity environment of ISS. The MinION device from Oxford Nanopore Technologies (Oxford, UK) measures picoamp changes in electrical current dependent on nucleotide sequences of the DNA strand migrating through nanopores in the system. The hardware is exceptionally small (9.5 x 3.2 x 1.6 cm), lightweight (120 grams), and powered only by a USB connection. For the ISS technology demonstration, the Biomolecule Sequencer will be powered by a Microsoft Surface Pro3. Ground-prepared samples containing lambda bacteriophage, Escherichia coli, and mouse genomic DNA, will be launched and stored frozen on the ISS until experiment initiation. Immediately prior to sequencing, a crew member will collect and thaw frozen DNA samples, connect the sequencer to the Surface Pro3, inject thawed samples into a MinION flow cell, and initiate sequencing. At the completion of the sequencing run, data will be downlinked for ground analysis. Identical, synchronous ground controls will be used for data comparisons to determine sequencer functionality, run-time sequence, current dynamics, and overall accuracy. We will present our latest results from the ISS flight experiment the first time DNA has ever been sequenced in space and discuss the many potential applications of the Biomolecule Sequencer for environmental monitoring, medical diagnostics, higher fidelity and more adaptable Space Biology Human Research Program investigations, and even life detection experiments for astrobiology missions.

Sequencer↗

The HST T tauri star SNAPshot survey

In the nearest star-forming regions, protoplanetary disks have angular sizes of only 3-4". Millimeter interferometry has generally been limited to a resolution of 1". Groundbased coronagraphic imaging of YSOs has been restricted to radii exterior to an occulting mask (r >2"), and detect nebulosity only in the most extreme dusty systems. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is the only observatory which can provide a spatial resolution of approx. 10 AU in combination with a stable point-spread function for high dynamic range imaging at visual wavelengths. Since the December 1993 servicing mission, only 12 nearby young stars have been observed by HST with the sensitivity needed to detect circumstellar reflection nebulosity. All six of the classical T Tauri stars observed so far have shown nebulosity; three objects are compact bipolar nebulae without an optically visible star; and the three weak-line T Tauri stars observed show no evidence for circumstellar nebulosity. Disks have been directly observed in 3 of the 12 systems studied so far: HH 30, GM Aurigae, and Haro 6-5B. A larger survey offers the prospect of many more detections, and thereby can address such fundamental questions as: What is the frequency for direct detection of disks around premain sequence stars? What is the range of disk masses and sizes? How are disks different in binary systems? Our proposal for an HST T Tauri Star SNAPshot survey was approved for 75 targets in Cycle 7. A SNAPshot survey consists of short-duration (25 minutes or less) sequences of observations which can be used to fill gaps in the HST observing schedule. This is well-matched to the needs of disk imaging, where typical T Tauri stars (11 < V < 14) saturate the WFPC2 detectors in a minute or less. Only wide-band R and I images will be taken.

Stapelfeldt, Karl↗

Light Water Sustainability Program: Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis

This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

National facilities study. Volume 5: Space research and development facilities task group

With the beginnings of the U.S. space program, there was a pressing need to develop facilities that could support the technology research and development, testing, and operations of evolving space systems. Redundancy in facilities that was once and advantage in providing flexibility and schedule accommodation is instead fast becoming a burden on scarce resources. As a result, there is a clear perception in many sectors that the U.S. has many space R&D facilities that are under-utilized and which are no longer cost-effective to maintain. At the same time, it is clear that the U.S. continues to possess many space R&D facilities which are the best -- or among the best -- in the world. In order to remain world class in key areas, careful assessment of current capabilities and planning for new facilities is needed. The National Facility Study (NFS) was initiated in 1992 to develop a comprehensive and integrated long-term plan for future aerospace facilities that meets current and projected government and commercial needs. In order to assess the nation's capability to support space research and development (R&D), a Space R&D Task Group was formed. The Task Group was co-chaired by NASA and DOD. The Task Group formed four major, technologically- and functionally- oriented working groups: Human and Machine Operations; Information and Communications; Propulsion and Power; and Materials, Structures, and Flight Dynamics. In addition to these groups, three supporting working groups were formed: Systems Engineering and Requirements; Strategy and Policy; and Costing Analysis. The Space R&D Task Group examined several hundred facilities against the template of a baseline mission and requirements model (developed in common with the Space Operations Task Group) and a set of excursions from the baseline. The model and excursions are described in Volume 3 of the NFS final report. In addition, as a part of the effort, the group examined key strategic issues associated with space R&D facilities planning for the U.S., and these are discussed in Section 4 of this volume.

Source record↗

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Space-Based Telemetry And Range Safety Flight Demonstration #1

The basic ability of STARS to maintain a satellite communications link with TDRSS satellites during dynamic aircraft flights was successfully demonstrated during FD 1. The Range Safety and Range User systems' link margins were measured. The ability to acquire/reacquire and maintain lock between a high-dynamic vehicle and a satellite-based system was demonstrated. The Range Safety system simultaneously received and processed command links from space and ground transmitters and provided near real-time Range Safety telemetry to DFRC, which then sent it in near real time to KSC, GSFC, and WFF for monitoring. The GPS receiver maintained track except during extremely dynamic maneuvers. The Range User system sent data at three different data rates. There were excellent cooperation and support from the different Centers, contractors, and Ranges. A large amount of data was recorded and extensive post-flight analysis was performed. The Range User TDRSS link margin met or exceeded the predicted performance at three different data rates. The Range Safety launch-head link margins generally agreed with the predicted performance. The UPS positions and velocities agreed with those from tracking radar to within about 20 m and a few rn/s. The link margins for the Range Safety TDRSS telemetry link were less than expected. The link margin for one TDRSS command link LPT channel was occasionally much less than the other. Additional post-flight testing has yet to identify the root causes of these results. There were many lessons learned from this first set of test flights. The most important one is that more time and testing are needed for each step to deal with the inevitable problems. It is vital that these lessons be among the primary areas of study that will carry over from FD#1 to FD#2, which is currently scheduled for early FY05 at DFRC and will use a specially designed Ku-band phased array antenna for the Range User system. The next series of flight demonstrations scheduled for late 2004 at DFRC will incorporate many lessons learned from FD#1. A specially designed Ku-band phased array antenna will be used with the Range User system. A test flight on a hypersonic vehicle is planned by the end of 2006.

Demspm. Erol↗

Norton-Thevenin Receptance Coupling (NTRC) as a Payload Analysis Tool

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has funded a study of a new method formulated by NASA Engineers called Norton-Thevenin Receptance Coupling (NTRC) to perform coupled loads analysis (CLA). The problem that NTRC attempts to solve is the dependency of the payload organization to high CLA costs, long schedules, lack of standard capabilities to evaluate multiple configurations and unavailability of loads when needed. NTRC solves the problem by providing a tool that payload developers can use to obtain loads at a fraction of the cost of a CLA at any time that it is required. While NTRC is not intended to replace the formal load cycles performed by the launch vehicle (LV) provider, it will provide the ability to reduce the conservatism in defining preliminary design loads, assess the impact of design changes between formal load cycles, perform trade studies and perform parametric loads analysis where many different design configurations can be evaluated with a minimum amount of data required from the LV provider. NTRC condenses all the necessary information into the launch vehicle to payload/s connection points or boundary degrees of freedom (BD). The launch vehicle model is represented by its impedance at its BDs; its forcing functions are represented by the acceleration at those BDs when the payload is absent and the latter is represented by its impedance at the same BDs. Payload responses are represented by transfer functions of selected response to interface BDs. The methodology has contributed to the Loads and Dynamics discipline advancement and successfully passed Peer Reviews. NTRC is exact in the frequency domain. Time domain replication and accuracy is outstanding. A second phase is envisioned to benchmark the whole set of CLA events for the Agency's most utilized Launch Vehicles, and ready it for operational deployment at NASA.

Kaufman, Daniel↗

Collaborative Aerospace Research and Fellowship Program at NASA Glenn Research Center

During the summer of 2004, a 10-week activity for university faculty entitled the NASA-OAI Collaborative Aerospace Research and Fellowship Program (CFP) was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center in collaboration with the Ohio Aerospace Institute (OAI). This is a companion program to the highly successful NASA Faculty Fellowship Program and its predecessor, the NASA-ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program that operated for 38 years at Glenn. The objectives of CFP parallel those of its companion, viz., (1) to further the professional knowledge of qualified engineering and science faculty,(2) to stimulate an exchange of ideas between teaching participants and employees of NASA, (3) to enrich and refresh the research and teaching activities of participants institutions, and (4) to contribute to the research objectives of Glenn. However, CFP, unlike the NASA program, permits faculty to be in residence for more than two summers and does not limit participation to United States citizens. Selected fellows spend 10 weeks at Glenn working on research problems in collaboration with NASA colleagues and participating in related activities of the NASA-ASEE program. This year's program began officially on June 1, 2004 and continued through August 7, 2004. Several fellows had program dates that differed from the official dates because university schedules vary and because some of the summer research projects warranted a time extension beyond the 10 weeks for satisfactory completion of the work. The stipend paid to the fellows was $1200 per week and a relocation allowance of $1000 was paid to those living outside a 50-mile radius of the Center. In post-program surveys from this and previous years, the faculty cited numerous instances where participation in the program has led to new courses, new research projects, new laboratory experiments, and grants from NASA to continue the work initiated during the summer. Many of the fellows mentioned amplifying material, both in undergraduate and graduate courses, on the basis of the summer s experience at Glenn. A number of 2004 fellows indicated that proposals to NASA will grow out of their summer research projects. In addition, some journal articles and NASA publications will result from this past summer s activities. Fellows from past summers continue to send reprints of articles that resulted from work initiated at Glenn. This report is intended primarily to summarize the research activities comprising the 2004 CFP Program at Glenn. Particular research studies include: 1) Development of an Imaging-Based, Computational Fluid Dynamics Tool to Assess Fluid Mechanics in Experimental Models that Simulate Blood Vessels; 2) Analysis of Nanomaterials Produced from Precursors; and 3) LEO Propagation Analysis Tool.

Heyward, Ann O.↗

SU-D-BRB-06: Treating Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) as a Chronic Disease: Implication of Temporal-Spatial Dose Fractionation Optimization Including Cancer Stem Cell Dynamics

Purpose: To explore the feasibility of improving GBM treatment outcome with temporal-spatial dose optimization of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) that models the differentiation and distinct radiosensitivity between cancer stem cells (CSC) and differentiated cancer cells (DCC). Methods: The ODE was formulated into a non-convex optimization problem with the objective to minimize remaining total cancer cells 500 days from the onset of radiotherapy when the total cancer cell number was 3.5×10{sup 7}, while maintaining normal tissue biological effective dose (BED) of 100Gy resulted from standard prescription of 2Gyx30. Assuming spatially separated CSC and DCC, optimization was also performed to explore the potential benefit from dose-painting the two compartments. Dose escalation to a sub-cell-population in the GTV was also examined assuming that a 2 cm margin around the GTV allows sufficient dose drop-off to 100Gy BED. The recurrence time was determined as the time at which the total cancer cell number regrows to 10{sup 9} cells. Results: The recurrence time with variable fractional doses administered once per week, bi-week and month for one year were found to be 615, 593 and 570 days, superior to the standard-prescription recurrence time of 418 days. The optimal dose-fraction size progression for both uniform and dose-painting to the tumor is low and relatively constant in the beginning and gradually increases to more aggressive fractions at end of the treatment course. Dose escalation to BED of 200Gy to the whole tumor alongside with protracted weekly treatment was found to further delay recurrence to 733 days. Dose-painting of 200 and 500Gy BED to CSC on a year-long weekly schedule further extended recurrence to 736 and 1076 days, respectively. Conclusion: GBM treatment outcome can possibly be improved with a chronic treatment approach. Further dose escalation to the entire tumor or CSC targeted killing is needed to achieve total tumor control. This work is supported by the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship (DGE-1144087)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellite Altimetry for a Global Ocean Observing System

Space-age technologies have made satellite remote sensing a powerful new tool to study the Earth on a global scale. However, the opacity of the ocean to electromagnetic sensing has limited spaceborne measurements to the properties of the surface layer of the ocean (such as sea surface temperature and color). The radar altimetric measurement of the height of the sea surface relative to the geoid, the dynamic topography of the ocean, is a very useful quantity for studying the circulation of the ocean. The ability of measuring dynamic topography from space makes satellite altimetry a uniquely useful remote sensing technique because dynamic topography reflects oceanic processes not only at the surface but at depths as well. A simple analysis shows that a one centimeter tilt in the dynamic topography is associated with a mass transport of 1-7 Sv (1Sv= 1 million tons per second) in the open ocean depending on the vertical distribution of current velocity. Such a magnitude is an appreciable fraction of the transport of the Florida Current (circa 30 Sv), for instance. TOPEX/POSEIDON has demonstrated the capability of measuring the time variation of sea level with accuracy approaching to 2 cm when the data are averaged over boxes with several hundred kilometers on each side. The data set has been used for studying ocean circulation phenomena with a wide range of scales, ranging from fast-changing barotropic variability to seasonal and interannual variability such as El Nino and La Nina. The long record of precise measurement of global sea level has also showed great promise for monitoring the variation of mean sea level, an effective indicator of global climate change. Continuation of satellite altimetry missions with capability matching or better than that of TOPEX/POSEIDON should be included as a key component of a Global Ocean Observing System. NASA and CNES have committed to continuing the measurement of TOPEX/POSEIDON with a series of follow-on missions called Jason. The first of the series, Jason-1, is scheduled for launch in May, 2000. Such a series of missions will provide a key data stream for both research and practical applications and benefit the objectives of global programs such as CLIVAR and GODAE.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed to understand the Sun and the Sun s influence on Earth. SDO was launched on February 11, 2010 carrying three scientific instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). Both AIA and HMI are sensitive to high frequency pointing perturbations and have sub-arcsecond level line-of-sight (LOS) jitter requirements. Extensive modeling and analysis efforts were directed in estimating the amount of jitter disturbing the science instruments. To verify the disturbance models and to validate the jitter performance prior to launch, many jitter-critical components and subassemblies were tested either by the mechanism vendors or at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Although detailed analysis and assembly level tests were performed to obtain good jitter predictions, there were still several sources of uncertainties in the system. The structural finite element model did not have all the modes correlated to test data at high frequencies (greater than 50 Hz). The performance of the instrument stabilization system was not known exactly but was expected to be close to the analytical model. A true disturbance-to-LOS observatory level test was not available due to the tight schedule of the flight spacecraft, the cost in time and manpower, difficulties in creating gravity negation systems, and risks of damaging flight hardware. To protect the observatory jitter performance against model uncertainties, the SDO jitter team devised several on-orbit jitter reduction plans in addition to reserve margins on analysis results. Since some of these plans severely restricted the capabilities of several spacecraft components (e.g. wheels and High Gain Antennas), the SDO team performed on-orbit jitter tests to determine which jitter reduction plans, if any, were necessary to satisfy science LOS jitter requirements. The SDO on-orbit jitter tests were designed to satisfy the following four objectives: 1. Determine the acceptable reaction wheel operational speed range during Science Mode. 2. Determine HGA algorithm jitter parameters (number of stagger steps and enable/disable no-steprequests). 3. Determine acceptable EVE instrument filter wheels spin rates. 4. Determine if AIA instrument filter wheels excite the first AIA telescope structural mode. This paper provides detailed information on the SDO wheel jitter test plan, shows on-orbit jitter measurements and how ground predictions compare to those measurements, and describes the final jitter mitigation plan executed on SDO.

Liu, Kuo-Chia (Alice)↗

South Atlantic Anomaly Entry and Exit as Measured by the X-Ray Timing Explorer

The Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) carries instruments that must switch off high voltages (HV) when passing through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). The High Energy X-ray Timing Experiment (HEXTE) contains a particle monitor that detects the increased particle flux associated with the SAA and autonomously reduces its voltage. The Proportional Counter Array (PCA) relies on uplinked predictions of SAA entry/exit times based on ephemeris data provided by the Flight Dynamics Facility. A third instrument, the All-Sky Monitor (ASM) also uses a predicted SAA model to reduce voltage when passing through the SAA. Data collected from the HEXTE particle monitor, as well as other instrument readings near the times of SAA entry/exit offer the potential for refining models of the boundaries of the SAA. The SAA has an increased particle flux which causes high rates of detection in the RXTE instruments designed to observe x-rays. The high counting rates could degrade the PCA if HV is not reduced during SAA passages. On the other hand, PCA downtime can be minimized and the science return can be optimized by having the best possible model of the SAA boundary. Thus, the PCA team planned an extensive effort during in-orbit checkout to utilize both the HEXTE particle monitor data and instrument counting rates to refine the model of the SAA boundary. The times of SAA entry and exit are compared with the definitive epemeris to determine the precise location (latitude and longitude) of the SAA boundary. Over time, the SAA and its perimeter were mapped. The RXTE Science Operations Center is continuously working to feed back the results of this effort into the science scheduling process, improving the SAA model as it affects the RXTE instruments, thus obtaining more accurate estimates of the SAA entry/exit times.

Smith, Evan↗

Science with the solar optical telescope

The Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) is designed to provide the solar physics community with the data necessary for solving several fundamental problems in the energetics and dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Among these problems are questions on the origin and evolution of the sun's magnetic field, heating of the outer solar atmosphere, and sources of the solar wind in the lower lying regions of the outer atmosphere. The SOT will be built under the management of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, with science instruments provided by teams led by Principal Investigators. The telescope will be built by the Perkin-Elmer Corporation, and the science instruments selected for the first flight will be provided by the Lockheed Palo Alto Research Laboratory (LPARL) and the California Institute of Technology, with actual construction of a combined science instrument taking place at the LPARL. The SOT has a 1.3-meter-diameter primary mirror that will be capable of achieving diffraction-limited viewing in the visible of 0.1 arc-second. This dimension is less than a hydrodynamic scale-height or a mean-free-path of a continuum photon in the solar atmosphere. Image stability will be achieved by a control system in the telescope, which moves both the primary and tertiary mirrors in tandem, and will be further enhanced by a correlation tracker in the combined science instrument. The SOT Facility is currently scheduled for its first flight on Spacelab at the beginning of the 1990's.

Jordan, S. D.↗

An Overall Assessment of JPSS-2 VIIRS Radiometric Performance Based on Pre-Launch Testing

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on-board the second Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) completed its sensor level testing in February 2018. The JPSS-2 (J2) mission is scheduled to launch in 2022 and will be very similar to its two predecessor missions, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) mission, launched on 28 October 2011 and JPSS-1 (renamed NOAA-20) launched on 18 November 2017. VIIRS instrument has 22 spectral bands covering the spectrum between 0.4 and 12.6 μm: 14 reflective solar bands (RSB), 7 thermal emissive bands (TEB) and one day-night band (DNB). It is a cross-track scanning radiometer capable of providing global measurements through observations at two spatial resolutions, 375 m and 750 m at nadir for the imaging bands and moderate bands, respectively. This paper will provide an overview of J2 VIIRS characterization methodologies and calibration performance during the pre-launch testing phases performed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) VIIRS Characterization Support Team (VCST) to evaluate the at-launch baseline radiometric performance and generate the parameters needed to populate the sensor data record (SDR) Look-Up-Tables (LUTs). Our analysis results confirmed the good performance of J2 VIIRS, in general as good as previous VIIRS instruments and all non-compliances are expected to have low impact on data quality. Key sensor performance metrics include the signal to noise ratio (SNR), radiance dynamic range, reflective and emissive bands calibration performance, polarization sensitivity, spectral performance, response versus scan-angle (RVS) and scattered light response. A set of performance metrics generated during the pre-launch testing program will be compared to both the SNPP and JPSS-1 VIIRS sensors.

Oudrari, Hassan↗

Operating Dynamic Reserve Dimensioning Using Probabilistic Forecasts

The rapid integration of variable energy sources (VRES) into power grids increases variability and uncertainty of the net demand, making the power system operation challenging. Operating reserve is used by system operators to manage and hedge against such variability and uncertainty. Traditionally, reserve requirements are determined by rules-of-thumb (static reserve requirements, e.g., NERC Reliability Standards), and more recently, dynamic reserve requirements from tools and methods which are in the adoption process (e.g., DynADOR, DRD, and RESERVE, among others). While these methods/tools significantly improve the static rule-of-thumb approaches, they rely exclusively on deterministic data (i.e., best guess only). Consequently, these methods disregard the probabilistic uncertainty thresholds associated with specific days and their weather conditions (i.e., best guess plus probabilistic uncertainty). This work presents practical approaches to determine the operating reserve requirements leveraging the wealth information from probabilistic forecasts. Proposed approaches are validated and tested using actual data from the CAISO system. Furthermore, results show the benefits in terms of risk reduction of considering the probabilistic forecast information into the dimensioning process of operating reserve requirements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗