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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Regional Rates of Young US Forest Growth Estimated From Annual Landsat Disturbance History and IKONOS Stereo Imagery

Forests of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) have been found to be a large contributor to the global atmospheric carbon sink. The magnitude and nature of this sink is still uncertain and recent studies have sought to define the dynamics that control its strength and longevity. The Landsat series of satellites has been a vital resource to understand the long-term changes in land cover that can impact ecosystem function and terrestrial carbonstock. We combine annual Landsat forest disturbance history from 1985 to 2011 with single date IKONOS stereoimagery to estimate the change in young forest canopy height and above ground live dry biomass accumulation for selected sites in the CONUS. Our approach follows an approximately linear growth rate following clearing over short intervals and does not estimate the distinct non-linear growth rate over longer intervals.We produced canopy height models by differencing digital surface models estimated from IKONOS stereo pairs with national elevation data (NED). Correlations between height and biomass were established independently using airborne LiDAR, and then applied to the IKONOS-estimated canopy height models. Graphing current biomass against time since disturbance provided biomass accumulation rates. For 20 study sites distributed across five regions of the CONUS, 19 showed statistically significant recovery trends (p is less than 0.001) with canopy growth from 0.26 m yr-1to 0.73 m yr-1. Above ground live dry biomass (AGB) density accumulation ranged from 1.31 t/ha yr-1 to 12.47 t/ha yr-1. Mean forest AGB accumulationwas 6.31 t/ha yr-1 among all sites with significant growth trends. We evaluated the accuracy of our estimates by comparing to field estimated site index curves of growth, airborne LiDAR data, and independent model predictions of C accumulation. Growth estimates found with this approach are consistent with site index curves and total biomass estimates fall within the range of field estimates. This is aviable approach to estimate forest biomass accumulation in regions with clear-cut harvest disturbances.

Neigh, Christopher S. R.↗

Initial Core Physics and Safety Analyses Supporting the Versatile Test Reactor

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) is a proposed integrated facility for investigations into the behavior of fuels and materials subjected to high, fast neutron fluxes prototypical of fast reactor environments. Detailed design of the reactor is currently being performed by a group of U.S. National Laboratories, including Argonne National Laboratory. The current design of the reactor is a 300 MW sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor fueled with ternary U-20Pu-10Zr metallic fuel. This report documents reactor core physics and preliminary safety analyses that have been performed. The reference VTR core has 313 assembly positions, 66 of which contain fuel assemblies. The remaining assembly positions are loaded with reflector, shield, control rod duct, and test assemblies. Ten positions are available in the reference design for experimental or test assemblies, however the VTR will support test assemblies in any position in the core for alternate core loadings. The performance of the reference VTR core has been assessed for an assumed equilibrium cycle. The core power distribution and reactivity feedback coefficients have been calculated. Preliminary assessments of the reactivity coefficients have shown that each of them results in a negative reactivity change for increasing temperatures. Safety analysis of a VTR layout has been performed using the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. A model has been developed to represent the current core design and a reference heat transport system design. The model has been used to simulate and perform analysis of protected and unprotected loss of heat sink, station blackout, and transient overpower accident scenarios. These scenarios represent the three main ways to perturb the reactor core, through changes to the core inlet temperature, mass flow rate, or reactivity insertions and are credible bounding scenarios for the evaluated transient categories. The results of these simulations have been assessed against simplified criteria for Anticipated Operational Occurrences for the protected transients and for Beyond Design Basis Events for the unprotected transients. Because the primary heat transport system is able to transition quickly and effectively to natural circulation and because the shutdown heat removal system provides sufficient heat rejection capability, large margins for all criteria were predicted for all protected transients. Large margins were also predicted for the unprotected loss of heat sink and station blackout transients due to the strong negative reactivity feedbacks generated by the core. Because of the high power density in the reactor, smaller fuel melting margins are predicted for the unprotected transient overpower accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DC-Link Current Minimization Control for Current Source Converter-Based Solid-State Transformer

This article proposes a fast predictive control method and a small DC-link inductor to minimize the DC-link current in current-source converter (CSC)-based solid-state transformer. The DC-link current minimization can significantly reduce power loss and improve efficiency. The challenge of this problem is on improving both steady-state and dynamic performance. PI control methods and large DC-link inductors are conventionally used in the CSC but have limited dynamic performance. A model predictive control (MPC) method is proposed to achieve switching-cycle-level settling time, and the DC-link inductor is sized for 40% ripple to enable fast current change. Importantly, this article also proposes to minimize the DC-link current by varying the current even within a line cycle under single-phase load to improve the steady-state performance, in contrast with the reduction to a constant value in the literature. The proposed MPC features a constant switching frequency without weighting factors. The MPC does not have a high computational burden and is implemented in a regular digital controller for a prototype of soft-switching solid-state transformer (S4T) with reduced conduction loss. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been experimentally verified on the SiC S4T prototype during steady-state and dynamics under different multiport power flow conditions up to 2 kV peak. Here, the DC-link current in the experiments is close to the minimum current with a short zero-vector duration, which further verifies the performance of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coupled Fluid-Structure Interaction Analysis of Solid Rocket Motor with Flexible Inhibitors

Flexible inhibitors are generally used in solid rocket motors (SRMs) as a means to control the burning of propellant. Vortices generated by the flow of propellant around the flexible inhibitors have been identified as a driving source of instabilities that can lead to thrust oscillations in launch vehicles. Potential coupling between the SRM thrust oscillations and structural vibration modes is an important risk factor in launch vehicle design. As a means to predict and better understand these phenomena, a multidisciplinary simulation capability that couples the NASA production CFD code, Loci/CHEM, with CFDRC's structural finite element code, CoBi, has been developed. This capability is crucial to the development of NASA's new space launch system (SLS). This paper summarizes the efforts in applying the coupled software to demonstrate and investigate fluid-structure interaction (FSI) phenomena between pressure waves and flexible inhibitors inside reusable solid rocket motors (RSRMs). The features of the fluid and structural solvers are described in detail, and the coupling methodology and interfacial continuity requirements are then presented in a general Eulerian-Lagrangian framework. The simulations presented herein utilize production level CFD with hybrid RANS/LES turbulence modeling and grid resolution in excess of 80 million cells. The fluid domain in the SRM is discretized using a general mixed polyhedral unstructured mesh, while full 3D shell elements are utilized in the structural domain for the flexible inhibitors. Verifications against analytical solutions for a structural model under a steady uniform pressure condition and under dynamic modal analysis show excellent agreement in terms of displacement distribution and eigenmode frequencies. The preliminary coupled results indicate that due to acoustic coupling, the dynamics of one of the more flexible inhibitors shift from its first modal frequency to the first acoustic frequency of the solid rocket motor. This insight could have profound implications for SRM and flexible inhibitor designs for current and future launch vehicles including SLS.

Yang, H. Q.↗

GRB and blazar jets shining through their stripes

Black hole-driven relativistic astrophysical jets, such as blazars and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), are powerful sources of electromagnetic radiation. Their emission is powered by some energy dissipation and particle acceleration mechanism operating in situ at large distances from the black hole. We propose that the formation of the dissipative structures in the jet is controlled by the time variability of the accretion disc. We argue that the open magnetic field lines through the black hole, which drive a strongly magnetized jet, may have their polarity reversing over time-scales related to the growth of the magnetorotational dynamo in the disc. Consequently, the jet is characterized by an alternating toroidal field polarity along its propagation axis, i.e. it is a ‘striped jet’. Magnetic reconnection in the current sheets that form between the stripes dissipates the alternating field energy and thus powers further jet acceleration. Here, we consider a jet with a broad distribution of stripe widths l > l min , above a dominant scale l min . We find that the bulk acceleration of the jet, driven by the annihilation of the stripes, is very gradual. The dissipation rate peaks at a distance $z_{\rm peak}\sim 10^6 R_\mathrm{ g}\, (\Gamma _\infty /30)^2\, (l_{\rm min}/1000R_\mathrm{ g})$| , where R g is the black hole’s gravitational radius and Γ ∞ the jet’s asymptotic Lorentz factor, and exhibits a very broad plateau extending by ~4–5 orders of magnitude in distance. The prolonged energy dissipation accounts for the flat-to-inverted long-wavelength spectra commonly observed in jets. The model can also account for the broad range of flaring time-scales of blazars and the fact that their bulk acceleration appears to continue out to ~100 pc scales. In GRB jets, the model predicts comparable power for the photopsheric and Thomson-thin emission components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Interaction Between Dynamics and Chemistry of Ozone in the Set-Up Phase of the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex

Understanding stratospheric ozone loss to the point of accurately predicting ozone in the future requires correctly distinguishing chemical from transport-induced changes in ozone. For example, evaluating the impact of chlorine reduction in controlling stratospheric ozone loss requires estimating the amount of ozone lost in chemical reactions in the polar winter and spring. The Northern Hemisphere winter polar region is a particularly crucial and interesting area because it appears that the Northern vortex may currently be poised near the threshold of extreme ozone destruction such as that which now occurs annually in the Antarctic ozone "hole." In this presentation we explore the interaction of ozone transport and chemistry through the Northern late summer and fall seasons as the vortex circulation becomes established. This phase of the seasonal cycle determines the starting point for heterogeneous processes and chlorine-driven loss that take control in the winter vortex. Using a combination of profile data from POAM, HALOE, and in situ measurements, we show that relatively low ozone at high latitudes in the middle stratosphere is associated with vortex airmasses and that these ozone abundances evolve photochemically from characteristically higher values at the end of the summer. The zonal variance of ozone mixing ratio also increases greatly at this time consistent with increasing wave-driven transport. Comparison with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to generalize the findings from the limited set of observations and quantify the relative roles of transport and chemistry in determining the ozone mixing ratio distributions.

Kawa, S.R.↗

Solar Particle Induced Upsets in the TDRS-1 Attitude Control System RAM During the October 1989 Solar Particle Events

The three large solar particle events, beginning on October 19, 1989 and lasting approximately six days, were characterized by high fluences of solar protons and heavy ions at 1 AU. During these events, an abnormally large number of upsets (243) were observed in the random access memory of the attitude control system (ACS) control processing electronics (CPE) on-board the geosynchronous TDRS-1 (Telemetry and Data Relay Satellite). The RAM unit affected was composed of eight Fairchild 93L422 memory chips. The Galileo spacecraft, launched on October 18, 1989 (one day prior to the solar particle events) observed the fluxes of heavy ions experienced by TDRS-1. Two solid-state detector telescopes on-board Galileo, designed to measure heavy ion species and energy, were turned on during time periods within each of the three separate events. The heavy ion data have been modeled and the time history of the events reconstructed to estimate heavy ion fluences. These fluences were converted to effective LET spectra after transport through the estimated shielding distribution around the TDRS-1 ACS system. The number of single event upsets (SEU) expected was calculated by integrating the measured cross section for the Fairchild 93L422 memory chip with average effective LET spectrum. The expected number of heavy ion induced SEU's calculated was 176. GOES-7 proton data, observed during the solar particle events, were used to estimate the number of proton-induced SEU's by integrating the proton fluence spectrum incident on the memory chips, with the two-parameter Bendel cross section for proton SEU'S. The proton fluence spectrum at the device level was gotten by transporting the protons through the estimated shielding distribution. The number of calculated proton-induced SEU's was 72, yielding a total of 248 predicted SEU'S, very dose to the 243 observed SEU'S. These calculations uniquely demonstrate the roles that solar heavy ions and protons played in the production of SEU's during the October 1989 solar particle events.

Croley, D. R.↗

A Novel Active Optimization Approach for Rapid and Efficient Design Space Exploration Using Ensemble Machine Learning

In this work, a novel design optimization technique based on active learning, which involves dynamic exploration and exploitation of the design space of interest using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, is presented. In this approach, a hybrid methodology incorporating an explorative weak learner (regularized basis function model) that fits high-level information about the response surface and an exploitative strong learner (based on committee machine) that fits finer details around promising regions identified by the weak learner is employed. For each design iteration, an aristocratic approach is used to select a set of nominees, where points that meet a threshold merit value as predicted by the weak learner are selected for evaluation. In addition to these points, the global optimum as predicted by the strong learner is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence to the actual global optimum once the most promising region has been identified by the optimizer. Additionally, this methodology is first tested by applying it to the optimization of a two-dimensional multi-modal surface and, subsequently, to a complex internal combustion (IC) engine combustion optimization case with nine control parameters related to fuel injection, initial thermodynamic conditions, and in-cylinder flow. It is found that the new approach significantly lowers the number of function evaluations that are needed to reach the optimum design configuration (by up to 80%) when compared to conventional optimization techniques, such as particle swarm and genetic algorithm-based optimization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Determination of the characteristic magnetic pre-sheath length at divertor surfaces using micro-engineered targets on DiMES at DIII-D

The magnetic pre-sheath (MPS) width, L MPS , is a critical parameter to define the sheath potential, which controls the ion trajectory of low-Z species (D, T, He, and C), as well as the prompt re-deposition of high-Z species. In this work, to determine L MPS , we fabricated micro-trenches (30×30×4 µm) via focused ion beam (FIB) milling on a silicon surface and exposed them to L-mode deuterium plasmas in DIII-D via the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES) removable sample exposure probe. The areal distribution of impurity depositions, mainly consisting of carbon, was measured by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to reveal the deuterium ion shadowing effect on the trench floors. The carbon deposition profiles showed that the erosion was maximized for the azimuthal direction of φ = -40° (referenced to the toroidal magnetic field direction) as well as the polar angle of θ = 80°. A Monte Carlo equation-of-motion model, based on a collisionless MPS, was used to calculate the azimuthal and polar deuterium ion angle distributions (IADs) for a range of L MPS = k × ρ i , where ρ i is the ion gyro radius and k = 0.5-4. Then, gross erosion profiles were calculated by a Monte Carlo micro-patterning and roughness (MPR) code for ion sputtering using as input the calculated azimuthal and polar IADs for each value of k . Good agreement with the experimental C deposition profiles was obtained for the case k = 2.5-3.5. This result is consistent with a previous kinetic modeling prediction of k ~ 3, as well as previous analytical investigations that predicted the L MPS to be several ion gyro radii. A validation of theoretical sheath models supports its applicability to ITER and pilot plant divertors to successfully predict plasma-materials interactions.

Erosion↗

Data-Centric Approach to Capture Non-Polynomial Nonlinear Dynamics

We propose an analytical construction of observable functions in the extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. EDMD is a numerical method for approximating the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. The choice of observable functions is fundamental for applying EDMD to nonlinear problems arising in systems and control. Existing methods either start from a set of dictionary functions and look for the subset that best fits the underlying nonlinear dynamics or rely on machine learning algorithms to “learn” observable functions. Conversely, in this paper, we start from the dynamical system model and lift it through the Lie derivatives, rendering it into a polynomial form. This proposed transformation into a polynomial form is exact and provides an adequate set of observable functions. The strength of the proposed approach is its applicability to a broader class of nonlinear dynamical systems, particularly those with nonpolynomial functions and compositions thereof. Moreover, it retains the physical interpretability of the underlying dynamical system and can be readily integrated into existing numerical libraries. We demonstrate the proposed approach with an application to electric power systems. The modeled system consists of a single generator connected to an infinite bus, where nonlinear terms include sine and cosine functions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in off-attractor nonlinear dynamics for estimation and prediction; the observable functions obtained from the proposed construction outperform methods that use dictionary functions comprising monomials or radial basis functions.

extended dynamic mode decomposition↗

Efficient Machine Learning Approach for Optimizing Scientific Computing Applications on Emerging HPC Architectures

Efficient parallel implementations of scientific applications on multi-core CPUs with accelerators such as GPUs and Xeon Phis is challenging. This requires - exploiting the data parallel architecture of the accelerator along with the vector pipelines of modern x86 CPU architectures, load balancing, and efficient memory transfer between different devices. It is relatively easy to meet these requirements for highly structured scientific applications. In contrast, a number of scientific and engineering applications are unstructured. Getting performance on accelerators for these applications is extremely challenging because many of these applications employ irregular algorithms which exhibit data-dependent control-ow and irregular memory accesses. Furthermore, these applications are often iterative with dependency between steps, and thus making it hard to parallelize across steps. As a result, parallelism in these applications is often limited to a single step. Numerical simulation of charged particles beam dynamics is one such application where the distribution of work and memory access pattern at each time step is irregular. Applications with these properties tend to present significant branch and memory divergence, load imbalance between different processor cores, and poor compute and memory utilization. Prior research on parallelizing such irregular applications have been focused around optimizing the irregular, data-dependent memory accesses and control-ow during a single step of the application independent of the other steps, with the assumption that these patterns are completely unpredictable. We observed that the structure of computation leading to control-ow divergence and irregular memory accesses in one step is similar to that in the next step. It is possible to predict this structure in the current step by observing the computation structure of previous steps. In this dissertation, we present novel machine learning based optimization techniques to address the parallel implementation challenges of such irregular applications on different HPC architectures. In particular, we use supervised learning to predict the computation structure and use it to address the control-ow and memory access irregularities in the parallel implementation of such applications on GPUs, Xeon Phis, and heterogeneous architectures composed of multi-core CPUs with GPUs or Xeon Phis. We use numerical simulation of charged particles beam dynamics simulation as a motivating example throughout the dissertation to present our new approach, though they should be equally applicable to a wide range of irregular applications. The machine learning approach presented here use predictive analytics and forecasting techniques to adaptively model and track the irregular memory access pattern at each time step of the simulation to anticipate the future memory access pattern. Access pattern forecasts can then be used to formulate optimization decisions during application execution which improves the performance of the application at a future time step based on the observations from earlier time steps. In heterogeneous architectures, forecasts can also be used to improve the memory performance and resource utilization of all the processing units to deliver a good aggregate performance. We used these optimization techniques and anticipation strategy to design a cache-aware, memory efficient parallel algorithm to address the irregularities in the parallel implementation of charged particles beam dynamics simulation on different HPC architectures. Experimental result using a diverse mix of HPC architectures shows that our approach in using anticipation strategy is effective in maximizing data reuse, ensuring workload balance, minimizing branch and memory divergence, and in improving resource utilization.

Arumugam, Kamesh↗

Demonstration of a fault impact reduction control module for wind turbines

Abstract. Traditionally, wind turbines in distributed applications make control decisions as isolated systems. They generally provide maximum power output during operation and manage internal faults with little consideration of the rest of the power system. Although fault detection and tolerance schemes are widely researched and implemented, controls to ameliorate such faults are uncommon in research and industry. The rapid shutdown of a wind turbine in a large transmission-connected wind plant will have a minimal impact on a large power system, but in a microgrid or isolated grid context the abrupt loss of a single wind turbine may cause grid instability and high stress on the system. This paper demonstrates a fault impact reduction control (FIRC) module for a wind turbine, which implements wider warning thresholds around fault thresholds. When the turbine crosses a warning threshold, the controller sends its predicted action to the grid controller, which facilitates the grid operator’s response to a potential wind turbine fault and then takes appropriate action to ameliorate the fault. Various test cases demonstrate the controller action under a variety of faults, and various scenarios demonstrate the grid benefit of an FIRC in both microgrid- and grid-connected contexts. The FIRC maximizes wind turbine generation and eases generation transition under a variety of fault scenarios. The FIRC module is easy to integrate with most existing controllers, just requiring derate capability, and can be easily modified to include the various warnings and thresholds that the user desires. This analysis is mainly performed in a MATLAB-Simulink-based research wind turbine model and is also implemented in the existing LabVIEW-based controller of the same research turbine at NREL.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Statistical studies of impulsive events at high latitudes

A statistical study has been made of the high-latitude impulsive events that were observed during the 1985-1986 South Pole Balloon Campaign. The events were selected by searching for unipolar pulses greater than or equal to 10 nT above background in the vertical component of the magnetic field on the ground and/or pedestal or 'W' shaped horizontal electric field perturbations greater than or equal to 10 mV/m in amplitude and accompanied by perturbations in the vertical electric field at balloon altitude. A main event list comprising 112 events was compiled from the 468 hours of data available. Three aspects of the events were examined: the solar wind conditions prior to the event, local time of observation, and intrinsic properties of the events. The local time distribution was obtained from the 112 entry main event list and was found to be nearly uniform across the dayside, with no midday gap. The event rate found using our low-amplitude selection criteria was 0.7 event/hr, comparable to expectations based on in situ studies of the magnetopause. A total of 42 events were found for which data were available from Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8. Of these events, 12 occurred when the Z(sub GSM) component (B(sub Z)) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was northward and 30 occurred when B(sub Z) was southward or fluctuating. Only three of the B(sub Z) northward cases and only five of the B(sub Z) southward cases were preceded by pressure pulses greater than 0.4 nPa in amplitude. Ten of the events were studied in detail by means of a model-fitting method discussed elsewhere. This method infers values of several parameters, including the total current flowing in a coaxial or monopole system and a two-dimensional dipole system. The intrinsic properties of the events showed that only approximately 10% of the total current contributed to momentum transfer to the high-latitude ionosphere, that the direction of the motion depended more on local time of observation than IMF B(sub y), and that events were usually several hundred kilometers in size. The observed B(sub z) control found in the 42 event list and the prevalence of coaxial current dominated events are inconsistent with the predictions of the pressure pulse model.

Lin, Z. M.↗

Predicting Reactor Antineutrino Emissions Using New Precision Beta Spectroscopy

Neutrino experiments at nuclear reactors are currently vital to the study of neutrino oscillations. The observed antineutrino rates at reactors are typically lower than model expectations. This observed deficit is called the “reactor neutrino anomaly”. A new understanding of neutrino physics may be required to explain this deficit, though model estimation uncertainties may also play a role in the apparent discrepancy. PNNL is currently investigating an experimental technique that promises reduced uncertainties for measured data to support these hypotheses and interpret reactor antineutrino measurements. The experimental approach is to 1) direct a proton accelerator beam on a metal target to produce a source of neutrons, 2) use spectral tailoring to modify the neutron spectrum to closely simulate the energy distribution of a power reactor neutron spectrum, 3) irradiate isotopic fission foils (235U, 238U, 239Pu, 241Pu) in this neutron spectrum so that fissions occur at energies representative of a reactor, 4) transport the beta particles released by the fission products in the foils to a beta spectrometer, 5) measure the beta energy spectrum, and 6) invert the measured beta energy spectrum to an antineutrino energy spectrum. A similar technique using a beta spectrometer and isotopic fission foils was pioneered in the 1980’s at the ILL thermal reactor. Those measurements have been the basis for interpreting all subsequent antineutrino measurements at reactors. A basic constraint in efforts to reduce uncertainties in predicting the antineutrino emission from reactor cores is any underlying limitation of the original measurements. This may include beta spectrum energy resolution, the absolute normalization of beta emission to number of fission, statistical counting uncertainties, lack of 238U data, the purely thermal nature of the IIL reactor neutrons used, etc. An accelerator-based neutron source that can be tailored to match various reactor neutron spectra provides an advantage for control in studying how changes in the neutron spectra (i.e. "in the reactor core") affects the resulting fission product beta spectrum. Furthermore, the 238U antineutrino spectrum, which has not been measured, can be studied directly because of the enhanced 1 MeV fast neutron flux available at the accelerator source. A facility such as the Project X Injector Experiment (PXIE) 30 MeV proton linear accelerator at Fermilab is being considered for this experiment. The hypothesis is that a new approach utilizing the flexibility of an accelerator neutron source with spectral tailoring coupled with a careful design of an isotopic fission target and beta spectrometer and the inversion of the beta spectrum to the neutrino spectrum will allow further reduction in the uncertainties associated with prediction of the reactor antineutrino spectrum.

Asner, David M.↗

Packed Bed Reactor Experiment (PBRE)-2: Pressure Drop Measurements in Microgravity

Single and two-phase flow through porous media are encountered on ground and in space in numerous applications related to life support systems, fuel cells, chemical/materials processing and transporting nutrients to plants. These systems operate differently in the microgravity environment encountered in space travel because the density differences no longer cause the phases to separate or “drain” under the body force of gravity. In the absence of gravity, the interfacial or capillary forces play a more significant role in determining the operational variables such as phase distribution, liquid holdup, and pressure drop especially when the liquid inertia and viscous forces are at minimum. Lower liquid flow rates in air-water two-phase flows represent the case for most of the space processes that depend on two-phase flows in porous media. The Packed Bed Reactor Experiment (PBRE) was developed and flown on the International Space Station (ISS) by NASA to extend a series of fundamental studies of gas-liquid flows through porous media. The goal of the this series of flight experiments (PBRE-1 and PBRE-2) is to better understand the hydrodynamics of two phase flows in porous media in flow regimes dominated by inertia and viscous effects and understanding the role of the interfacial forces and their role in determining the flow dynamics. The flight experiments were preceded by a series of low gravity experiments performed on the low gravity aircraft. These experiments led to the development of a semi-empirical two-phase pressure drop and flow pattern transition in support of a number of reactor beds planned for water reclamation processes onboard of the international space station. The PBRE flight experiment was designed to deliver a wide range of tightly controlled gas (nitrogen) and liquid (water) flows to one of two interchangeable test sections differing only in the type of internal packing material. In this paper, we describe the PBRE-2 experiment and present preliminary low gravity data on pressure drop and compare with semi-empirical model pressure drop predictions. This work is supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under grant no. 80NSSC20K0830

Suratman Number↗

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Strong correlation between stress drop and peak ground acceleration for recent M1–4 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

Theoretical and observational studies suggest that between-event variability in the median ground motions of larger ( M≥5 ) earthquakes is controlled primarily by the dynamic properties of the earthquake source, such as Brune-type stress drop. Analogous results remain equivocal for smaller events due to the lack of comprehensive and overlapping ground-motion and source-parameter datasets in this regime. Here in this paper, we investigate the relationship between peak ground acceleration (PGA) and dynamic stress drop for a new dataset of 5297 earthquakes that occurred in the San Francisco Bay area from 2002 through 2016. For each event, we measure PGA on horizontal-component channels of stations within 100 km and estimate stress drop from P-wave spectra recorded on vertical-component channels of the same stations. We then develop a nonparametric ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) applicable for the moderate (M 1–4) earthquakes in our study region, using a mixed-effects generalization of the Random Forest algorithm. We use the Random Forest GMPE to model the joint influence of magnitude, distance, and near-site effects on observed PGA. We observe a strong correlation between dynamic stress drop and the residual PGA of each event, with the events with higher-than-expected PGA associated with higher values of stress drop. The strength of this correlation increases as a function of magnitude but remains significant even for smaller magnitude events with corner frequencies that approach the observable bandwidth of the acceleration records. Mainshock events are characterized by systematically higher stress drop and PGA than aftershocks of equivalent magnitude. Coherent local variations in the distribution of dynamic stress drop provide observational constraints to support the future development of nonergodic GMPEs that account for variations in median stress drop at different source locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ground Motion and Intraevent Variability from 3D Deterministic Broadband (0-7.5 Hz) Simulations along a Nonplanar Strike-Slip Fault

In the article, we model deterministic broadband (-7.5 Hz) ground motion from an M w 7.1 bilateral strike-slip earthquake scenario with dynamic rupture propagation along a rough-fault topography embedded in a medium including small-scale velocity and density perturbations. Spectral accelerations (SAs) at periods 0.2-3 s and Arias intensity durations show a similar distance decay (at the level of 1-2 interevent standard deviations above the median) when compared to Next Generation Attenuation-West2 (NGA)-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) using a Q(f) power-law exponent of 0.6-0.8 above 1 Hz in models with a minimum V S of 750 m/s. With a trade-off from Q(f), the median ground motion is slightly increased by scattering from statistical models of small-scale heterogeneity with standard deviation (σ) of the perturbations at the lower end of the observed range (5%) but reduced by scattering attenuation at the upper end (10%) when using a realistic 3D background velocity model. The ground-motion variability is strongly affected by the addition of small-scale media heterogeneity, reducing otherwise large values of intraevent standard deviation closer to those of empirical observations. These simulations generally have intraevent standard deviations for SAs lower than the GMPEs for the modeled bandwidth, with an increasing trend with distance (most pronounced in low-to-moderate scattering media) near the level of observations at distances greater than 35 km from the fault. Durations for the models follow the same increasing trend with distance, in which σ~5% produces the best match to GMPE values. We find that a 3D background-velocity model reduces the pulse period into the expected range by breaking up coherent waves from directivity, generating a lognormal distribution of ground-motion residuals. These results indicate that a strongly heterogeneous medium is needed to produce realistic deterministic broadband ground motions. Finally, the addition of a thin surficial layer with low, frequency-independent Q in the model (with a minimum V S of 750 m/s) controls the high-frequency decay in energy, as measured by the parameter κ, that may be necessary to include as simulations continue to extend to higher frequencies.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗