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NASA NTRS1976

Safer Liquid Natural Gas

After the disaster of Staten Island in 1973 where 40 people were killed repairing a liquid natural gas storage tank, the New York Fire Commissioner requested NASA's help in drawing up a comprehensive plan to cover the design, construction, and operation of liquid natural gas facilities. Two programs are underway. The first transfers comprehensive risk management techniques and procedures which take the form of an instruction document that includes determining liquid-gas risks through engineering analysis and tests, controlling these risks by setting up redundant fail safe techniques, and establishing criteria calling for decisions that eliminate or accept certain risks. The second program prepares a liquid gas safety manual (the first of its kind).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Optimal Aircraft Control Upset Recovery With and Without Component Failures

This paper treats the problem of recovering sustainable nondescending (safe) flight in a transport aircraft after one or more of its control effectors fail. Such recovery can be a challenging goal for many transport aircraft currently in the operational fleet for two reasons. First, they have very little redundancy in their means of generating control forces and moments. These aircraft have, as primary control surfaces, a single rudder and pairwise elevators and aileron/spoiler units that provide yaw, pitch, and roll moments with sufficient bandwidth to be used in stabilizing and maneuvering the airframe. Beyond this, throttling the engines can provide additional moments, but on a much slower time scale. Other aerodynamic surfaces, such as leading and trailing edge flaps, are only intended to be placed in a position and left, and are, hence, very slow-moving. Because of this, loss of a primary control surface strongly degrades the controllability of the vehicle, particularly when the failed effector becomes stuck in a non-neutral position where it exerts a disturbance moment that must be countered by the remaining operating effectors. The second challenge in recovering safe flight is that these vehicles are not agile, nor can they tolerate large accelerations. This is of special importance when, at the outset of the recovery maneuver, the aircraft is flying toward the ground, as is frequently the case when there are major control hardware failures. Recovery of safe flight is examined in this paper in the context of trajectory optimization. For a particular transport aircraft, and a failure scenario inspired by an historical air disaster, recovery scenarios are calculated with and without control surface failures, to bring the aircraft to safe flight from the adverse flight condition that it had assumed, apparently as a result of contact with a vortex from a larger aircraft's wake. An effort has been made to represent relevant airframe dynamics, acceleration limits, and actuator limits faithfully, since these contribute to the lack of agility and control power that plays an important role in defining what can be achieved with the vehicle when it is in extremis.

Sparks, Dean W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗
NASA NTRS2002

Collegiate Aviation Research and Education Solutions to Critical Safety Issues

This Conference Proceedings is a collection of 6 abstracts and 3 papers presented April 19-20, 2001 in Denver, CO. The conference focus was "Best Practices and Benchmarking in Collegiate and Industry Programs". Topics covered include: satellite-based aviation navigation; weather safety training; human-behavior and aircraft maintenance issues; disaster preparedness; the collegiate aviation emergency response checklist; aviation safety research; and regulatory status of maintenance resource management.

Bowen, Brent↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probable Disastrous Consequences of Collision Between Unknown Small (100 m) Asteroids with Known (Approximately 1 km) Near Earth Orbiting (NEO) Asteroids

The long-term stability of the Solar System is not well understood. Ironically its stability is taken for granted even though our knowledge of all the constituents [comets, asteroids. (The Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter, Trojan Asteroids, Kuiper belt, Ort Cloud), planetoids, planets, moons, etc], and its long-term dynamics cannot be easily computed. At best one might say that the solar system is chaotic, but much of the time it seems to exists near a quasi-stationary state. An asteroid that passes near the Earth regularly returns with clock-like precision. Taking into account every known detail of its path through the solar system, its orbit is calculated forward thousands of years with no untoward calamity on the horizon. And then one day, this passive visitor slams into the Earth during a sunny afternoon picnic! Can this happen? Unfortunately, this is a real possibility in the ordinary history of the solar system. In fact our knowledge of the solar system in the small is sketchy, as will be pointed out. Events, which lie outside our awareness, can precipitate disasters that we may perceive when it's too late to launch effective counter measures. In this work, one such scenario is described and the direct consequences for the Earth are calculated.

Smalley, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transferring Knowledge from Observations and Models to Decision Makers: An Overview and Challenges

Over the last 25 years, a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such US, European Community, Japan, China and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching to public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, security, air quality and public health can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This paper surveys and examines a number such applications in terms of their architecture, maturity and economic applicability as they apply to the societal needs. A detailed analysis is also presented of various challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information. This paper also makes attempts to address this topic and discuss possible approaches to deal with this quandary.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS-Derived Fire Radiative Energy to Estimate Smoke Aerosol Emissions over Different Ecosystems

Biomass burning is the main source of smoke aerosols and certain trace gases in the atmosphere. However, estimates of the rates of biomass consumption and emission of aerosols and trace gases from fires have not attained adequate reliability thus far. Traditional methods for deriving emission rates employ the use of emission factors e(sub x), (in g of species x per kg of biomass burned), which are difficult to measure from satellites. In this era of environmental monitoring from space, fire characterization was not a major consideration in the design of the early satellite-borne remote sensing instruments, such as AVHRR. Therefore, although they are able to provide fire location information, they were not adequately sensitive to variations in fire strength or size, because their thermal bands used for fire detection saturated at the lower end of fire radiative temperature range. As such, hitherto, satellite-based emission estimates employ proxy techniques using satellite derived fire pixel counts (which do not express the fire strength or rate of biomass consumption) or burned areas (which can only be obtained after the fire is over). The MODIS sensor, recently launched into orbit aboard EOS Terra (1999) and Aqua (2002) satellites, have a much higher saturation level and can, not only detect the fire locations 4 times daily, but also measures the at-satellite fire radiative energy (which is a measure of the fire strength) based on its 4 micron channel temperature. Also, MODIS measures the optical thickness of smoke and other aerosols. Preliminary analysis shows appreciable correlation between the MODIS-derived rates of emission of fire radiative energy and smoke over different regions across the globe. These relationships hold great promise for deriving emission coefficients, which can be used for estimating smoke aerosol emissions from MODIS active fire products. This procedure has the potential to provide more accurate emission estimates in near real-time, providing opportunities for various disaster management applications such as alerts, evacuation and, smoke dispersion forecasting.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2004

Rain, Snow, Hurricanes, and Blizzards: Remote Sensing of Cloud Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. This colloquium will start with a broad background of the use of remote sensing of precipitation and then focus on recent research in the estimation of frozen cloud properties, both for ice that will eventually melt into rain and for solid precipitation falling in northern climates. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties of liquid rain and frozen particles will be explained. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for Hurricane Erin (2001 ) and the March 5-6, 2001 New England regional blizzard will be discussed. Future directions and challenges of this work will also be presented.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: Forecasting Hurricane Effects at Landfall

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones strike Central American, Caribbean, Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations even more frequently than the U.S. The global losses of life and property from the floods, landslides and debris flows caused by cyclonic storms are staggering. One of the keys to reducing these losses, both in the U.S. and internationally, is to have better forecasts of what is about to happen from several hours to days before the event. Particularly in developing nations where science, technology and communication are limited, advance-warning systems can have great impact. In developing countries, warnings of even a few hours or days can mitigate or reduce catastrophic losses of life. With the foregoing needs in mind, we propose an initial project of three years total duration that will aim to develop and transfer a warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum will include satellite observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict near-future runoff, and streamflow changes in affected regions, and landslide models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent. Since surface communications are likely to be interrupted during these crises, the project also includes the capability to communicate disaster information via satellite to vital government officials in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Dominican Republic.

Negri, A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Anomaly Analysis: NASA's Engineering and Safety Center Checks Recurring Shuttle Glitches

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), set up in the wake of the Columbia accident to backstop engineers in the space shuttle program, is reviewing hundreds of recurring anomalies that the program had determined don't affect flight safety to see if in fact they might. The NESC is expanding its support to other programs across the agency, as well. The effort, which will later extend to the International Space Station (ISS), is a principal part of the attempt to overcome the normalization of deviance--a situation in which organizations proceeded as if nothing was wrong in the face of evidence that something was wrong--cited by sociologist Diane Vaughn as contributing to both space shuttle disasters.

Morring, Frank, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Anticipating the reaction: public concern about sample return missions

Shifts in public attitude that may affect extraterrestrial sample return include increased public participation in the legal and regulatory environment, institutionalized public vigilance, politicization of technological debates and shifts in the nature of public decision-making, and a risk-averse public accustomed to mass media coverage that focuses on hazards and disasters. The ice-minus recombinant DNA experiment is used as an example of the effects of public opinion on scientific experimentation.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS1986

Man in space

The Challenger disaster focused attention on the hazards as well as the possibilities of man in space. The physiological effects of prolonged weightlessness include important changes in vestibular, bone, muscle, cardiovascular, blood, renal, and pulmonary function. Much has been learned from US and Soviet experiments, but large areas of ignorance remain. Exceptional opportunities for physiological research are provided by Spacelab, a pressurized laboratory planned as a payload of the Space Shuttle.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1991

Factors That Affect Software Testability

Software faults that infrequently affect software's output are dangerous. When a software fault causes frequent software failures, testing is likely to reveal the fault before the software is releases; when the fault remains undetected during testing, it can cause disaster after the software is installed. A technique for predicting whether a particular piece of software is likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is found in [Voas91b]. A piece of software that is likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is said to have high testability. A piece of software that is not likely to reveal faults within itself during testing is said to have low testability. It is preferable to design software with higher testabilities from the outset, i.e., create software with as high of a degree of testability as possible to avoid the problems of having undetected faults that are associated with low testability. Information loss is a phenomenon that occurs during program execution that increases the likelihood that a fault will remain undetected. In this paper, I identify two brad classes of information loss, define them, and suggest ways of predicting the potential for information loss to occur. We do this in order to decrease the likelihood that faults will remain undetected during testing.

Voas, Jeffrey M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Raman-based Oxygen and Nitrogen Sensor for Monitoring Empty Airplane Fuel Tanks

The purpose of this project was to develop a Raman-based method for detecting oxygen and nitrogen in empty fuel tanks. The need for such a method comes from the potential danger of allowing explosive oxygen-fuel mixtures to accumulate in empty airplane fuel tanks. An explosion resulting from such a mixture is believed to have caused the Flight TWA 800 disaster in 1996. Recently, (e.g., February 17,2004 press release) the FAA announced its intentions to make fuel tank inerting mandatory. One potential solution to this problem is to use an inert gas such as nitrogen to flood the empty fue1 tanks in order to reduce the concentration of oxygen.

Chen, Peter C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Harnessing Systems Engineering Methodology in Using Earth Science Research Data for Real Applications

For the last three decades, Earth science remote sensing technologies have been providing an enormous amount of useful data and information serving to broaden our understanding of the home planet as a system. NASA's Earth science program has deployed about 18 complex satellites and is in the process of defining and launching multiple observing systems in this decade. At the same time, the European Community and many other countries such as Russia, France, India, Japan, and China have also significantly contributed to Earth science research. To date, the majority of such efforts have concentrated on expanding our scientific understanding of the multiple nonlinear and chaotic processes of Earth's behavior. In recent years, legislators and stakeholders have put serious pressure on the science community to devote more attention to making use of scientific results for societal benefit. For instance, there are a number of areas such as energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural efficiency, disaster management, air quality and public health that can directly take advantage of Earth science results to analyze and predict large scale problems and conditions. This is becoming even more important now that we live in a global economy interconnected via the internet and transportation systems; regional environmental conditions can have far reaching impact across continental boundaries. These factors dictate requirements for global data that can help us assess and control the devastating problems of famine, water resources, wildfires, human health and more. To do this requires a serious, organized, and systematic approach that transfers fundamental research products to the applied sciences domain. This paper presents a systems engineering and management process that can effectively make such transfer of data to the user community. Examples are presented on how the above decision making framework can help in solving critical problems such as the spread of vector borne diseases, forecasts of harmful algal blooms as well as forest fires and wildfires, and the intercontinental transport of dust storms and pollution.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development of microcomputer-based mental acuity tests

Recent disasters have focused attention on performance problems due to the use of alcohol and controlled substances in the workplace. Environmental stressors such as thermal extremes, mixed gases, noise, motion, and vibration also have adverse effects on human performance and operator efficiency. However, the lack of a standardized, sensitive, human performance assessment battery has probably delayed the systematic study of the deleterious effects of various toxic chemicals and drugs at home and in the workplace. The collective goal of the research reported here is the development of a menu of tests embedded in a coherent package of hardware and software that may be useful in repeated-measures studies of a broad range of agents that can degrade human performance. A menu of 40 tests from the Automated Performance Test System (APTS) is described, and the series of interlocking studies supporting its development is reviewed. The APTS tests, which run on several versions of laptop portables and desktop personal computers, have been shown to be stable, reliable, and factorially rich, and to have predictive validities with holistic measures of intelligence and simulator performances. In addition, sensitivity studies have been conducted in which performance changes due to stressors, agents, and treatments were demonstrated. We believe that tests like those described here have prospective use as an adjunct to urine testing for the screening for performance loss of individuals who are granted access to workplaces and stations that impact public safety.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Passive Remote Sensing of Cloud Ice Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. A brief background of passive remote sensing of precipitation will be presented followed by a focused discussion of recent research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center estimating the properties of frozen particles in clouds. The retrievals are for (1) ice that will eventually melt into rain, (2) for solid precipitation falling in northern climates, and (3) cirrus ice clouds. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties and differences of liquid rain versus frozen particles will be summarized for frequencies from 6 to 340+ GHz. Challenges of this work including surface emissivity variability, non-linear and under-constrained relationships, and frozen particle unknowns will be discussed. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for ice above the melting layer in hurricanes, retrieved snowfall rates for a blizzard, and cirrus ice estimates will be presented. Future directions of this work will also be described.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗
NASA NTRS2004

Processing Spacecraft Data Without Confusion

Producing multiple versions of the same data product for the same time frame with the same remotely sensed inputs can be a recipe for disaster. Yet, amidst the commotion of satellite launch and early operations (LEO), such data processing is needed. After LEO, the situation gets worse. Processing newly arriving data ("forward processing") is augmented with reprocessing and algorithm development, comparison, evaluation, and testing -- often happening all at the same time. The problem can be analyzed in three main parts -- maintaining multiple versions of algorithms and data so that end-product users are not overwhelmed,allocating computer resources efficiently, and simplifying production operations so that va st amounts of data can be processed with minimal staff and fewer errors. OMIDAPS provides a framework for execution of algorithms that transform lower level data acquired by OMI on NASA's Aura satellite into higher level science data products. In contrast to traditional science data processing systems, we address all parts of the problem with an innovative approach allowing multiple data processing to run within a single physical system. The data products, imports, exports, and execution planning are all segregated into distinct "ArchiveSets." This paper describes reasons for multiple concurrent productions on a typical satellite data processing project using OMI as an example. It describes the virtual data processing system concept and its advantages over separate physical processing strings. It explores the specific implementation of the virtual systems within OMIDAPS and discusses some of the implications of our approach and describes how virtual processing is used to accomplish the overall mission of OMI data processing.

Tilmes, Curt↗