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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Overview of the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study Using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. Here, in this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Digital image data sets for remote sensing instruction

Several sets of LANDSAT image segments and a set of simple image processing programs operating in batch mode are being used to teach an introductory course in digital image analysis and classification. The image data sets contain only a small number of pixels and can be run quickly on most university computing systems. A number of image data sets derived from the raw spectral bands (smoothed data sets, band ratios and texture data sets) allows the student to examine and include these extracted variables in the classification process. Another data set consists of three registered LANDSAT image segments for three different dates so that the student may experiment with multitemporal data processing. The three LANDSAT scenes used in the class are described and the image data sets available for class exercises are listed.

Eyton, J. R.↗

Directional velocity analyzer for measuring electron distribution functions in plasmas

A directional velocity analyzer has been developed for measuring electron distribution functions in plasmas. It contains a collimating aperture which selects particles from a narrow cone in velocity space and a retarding potential analyzer. The distribution function f(v, theta, phi) is obtained from a large number of analyzer traces taken at different angles theta, phi. In addition, the small analyzer can be moved in space and the measurements are time resolved so as to obtain the complete phase space information f(v,r,t). The large data flow of this seven-variable function is processed with a high-speed digital data-acquisition system. The new electron velocity analyzer is applicable over a wide parameter range in electron energies and densities. Various cases of anisotropic distributions such as beams, shells, tails, and drifts have been successfully investigated.

Stenzel, R. L.↗

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data into a Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The assimilation technique has been applied to the Oklahoma-Kansas region during the spring-summer 2000 time period when dynamic changes in vegetation cover occur. In April, central Oklahoma is characterized by large NDVI associated with winter wheat while surrounding areas are primarily rangeland with lower NDVI. In July the vegetation pattern reverses as the central wheat area changes to low NDVI due to harvesting and the surrounding rangeland is greener than it was in April. The goal of this study is to determine if assimilating satellite land surface data can improve simulation of the complex spatial distribution of surface energy and water fluxes across this region. The PSU/NCAR NM5 V3 system is used in this study. The grid configuration consists of a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest over the area of interest. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and dewpoint indicates that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for both state variables. In addition, comparison of model data with ARM/CART EBBR flux observations reveals that the assimilation technique adjusts the bowen ratio in a realistic fashion.

Lapenta, William M.↗

Systems and methods for screening particle source manufacturing and development test data

A computing system obtains test data for a particle source. The test data was generated by the particle source when the particle source was caused to emit particles. The test data comprises a first set of measurements of a first type and a second set of measurements of a second type. The computing system applies a data agnostic predictive model to the test data. The data agnostic predictive model is generated without a parametric analysis of variables of the first type and variables of the second type. The data agnostic predictive model outputs, based upon the test data, a value that is indicative of whether or not the test data is abnormal. Based upon the value, the computing system outputs an indication that the particle source was operating sub-optimally when emitting the particles.

Multari, Rosalie A.↗

Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar

This is the final performance report for our grant 'Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar.' In the first year of this grant, we received the 50,000-second ROSAT (German acronym for X-ray satellite) High Resolution Images (HRI) observation of the Crab Nebula pulsar. We used the data to create a 65-ms-resolution pulse profile and compared it to a similar pulse profile obtained in 1991. No statistically significant differences were found. These results were presented at the January 1998 meeting of the American Astronomical Society. Since then, we have performed more sensitive analyses to search for potential changes in the pulse profile shape between the two data sets. Again, no significant variability was found. In order to augment this long (six-year) baseline data set, we have analyzed archival observations of the Crab Nebula pulsar with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). While these observations have shorter time baselines than the ROSAT data set, their higher signal-to-noise offers similar sensitivity to long-term variability. Again, no significant variations have been found, confirming our ROSAT results. This work was done in collaboration with Prof. Stephen Eikenberry, Cornell University. These analyses will be included in Cornell University graduate student Dae-Sik Moon's doctoral thesis.

Fazio, Giovanni G.↗

Global Distribution of Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides in 2010 Relative to Previous Years

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides worldwide. While research has evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local or regional scales using in situ data, few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This study uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from TRMM data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurrence of precipitation and landslides globally. Evaluation of the GLC indicates that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This study characterizes the variability of satellite precipitation data and reported landslide activity at the globally scale in order to improve landslide cataloging, forecasting and quantify potential triggering sources at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

Ultraviolet, visual, and infrared observations of the WC7 variable HD 193793

Low-resolution IUE data are used to explore the ultraviolet extinction toward the Wolf-Rayet star HD 193793 and to search for ultraviolet variability that might relate to the infrared variability. High-dispersion IUE observations are used to investigate the nature of the stellar wind of the star and to search for anomalies in the interstellar line spectrum that might be expected to be found toward a star that has recently formed a dust shell. Finally, the ultraviolet and new visual and infrared data are combined to investigate the full energy distribution of this unusual source. The energy distribution is found to extend from 0.12 to 12.5 microns, and the ultraviolet data suggest a normal WC-7 type star. A wind terminal speed of about 3000 km/s is implied by the data, as well as an E(B-V) value of 0.85. The dereddened ultraviolet to visual energy distribution is consistent with a star having effective temperature of about 43,000 K.

Fitzpatrick, E. L.↗

Elastic Bayesian Model Calibration

Functional data are ubiquitous in scientific modeling. For instance, quantities of interest are modeled as functions of time, space, energy, density, etc. Uncertainty quantification methods for computer models with functional response have resulted in tools for emulation, sensitivity analysis, and calibration that are widely used. However, many of these tools do not perform well when the computer model’s parameters control both the amplitude variation of the functional output and its alignment (or phase variation). This paper introduces a framework for Bayesian model calibration when the model responses are misaligned functional data. The approach generates two types of data out of the misaligned functional responses: (1) aligned functions so that the amplitude variation is isolated and (2) warping functions that isolate the phase variation. These two types of data are created for the computer simulation data (both of which may be emulated) and the experimental data. The calibration approach uses both types so that it seeks to match both the amplitude and phase of the experimental data. The framework is careful to respect constraints that arise, especially when modeling phase variation, and is framed in a way that it can be done with readily available calibration software. In conclusion, we demonstrate the techniques on two simulated data examples and on two dynamic material science problems: a strength model calibration using flyer plate experiments and an equation of state model calibration using experiments performed on the Sandia National Laboratories’ Z-machine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Long-term variability in low-mass X-ray binaries - A study using data from Vela 5B

A complete sample of low-mass X-ray binaries in uncrowded fields obtained from Vela 5B is studied here for periodic and aperiodic time variability on time scales of more than one day. The strong 176-day periodicity in X1820 - 303 is confirmed, and evidence is found for a significant 77-day period in Cyg X-2 and for variability on time scales of less than about 200 days in Cyg X-3. Limits are set on the possible amplitude of candidate periodicities in the literature for Ser X-1 and X0614 + 091. The evidence reported here suggests that while long-term cyclic variability is common among high-mass binaries, it is a rare occurrence in low-mass systems.

Smale, Alan P.↗

Oxygen-rich Mira variables: Near-infrared luminosity calibrations. Populations and period-luminosity relations

Hipparcos astrometric and kinematical data of oxygen-rich Mira variables are used to calibrate absolute near-infrared magnitudes and kinematic parameters. Three distinct classes of stars with different kinematics and scale heights were identified. The two most significant groups present characteristics close to those usually assigned to extended/thick disk-halo populations and old disk populations, respectively, and thus they may differ by their metallicity abundance. Two parallel period-luminosity relations are found, one for each population. The shift between these relations is interpreted as the consequence of the effects of metallicity abundance on the luminosity.

Alvarez, R.↗

Classification of ASKAP Vast Radio Light Curves

The VAST survey is a wide-field survey that observes with unprecedented instrument sensitivity (0.5 mJy or lower) and repeat cadence (a goal of 5 seconds) that will enable novel scientific discoveries related to known and unknown classes of radio transients and variables. Given the unprecedented observing characteristics of VAST, it is important to estimate source classification performance, and determine best practices prior to the launch of ASKAP's BETA in 2012. The goal of this study is to identify light curve characterization and classification algorithms that are best suited for archival VAST light curve classification. We perform our experiments on light curve simulations of eight source types and achieve best case performance of approximately 90% accuracy. We note that classification performance is most influenced by light curve characterization rather than classifier algorithm.

radio astronomy↗

Surface temperatures in the polar regions from Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer

Monthly surface temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic regions have been derived from the 11.5 micrometer thermal infrared channel of the Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) for a whole year in 1979 and for a winter and a summer month from 1980 through 1985. The data set shows interannual variability and provides spatial details that allow identification of temperature patterns over sea ice and ice sheet surfaces. For example, the coldest spot in the southern hemisphere is observed to be consistently in the Antarctic plateau in the southern hemisphere, while that in the northern hemisphere is usually located in Greenland, or one of three other general areas: Siberia, the central Arctic, or the Canadian Archipelago. Also, in the southern hemisphere, the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation of ice sheet temperatures is about 3 times that of sea ice, while in the northern hemisphere, the corresponding fluctuations for the two surfaces are about the same. The main sources of error in the retrieval are cloud and other atmospheric effects. These were minimized by first choosing the highest radiance value from the set of measurements during the day taken within a 30 km by 30 km grid of each daily map. Then the difference of daily maps was taken and where the difference is greater than a certain threshold (which in this case is 12 C), the data element is deleted. Overall, the monthly maps derived from the resulting daily maps are spatially and temporally consistent, are coherent with the topograph y of the Antarctic continent and the location of the sea ice edge, and are in qualitative agreement with climatological data. Quantitatively, THIR data are in good agreement with Antarctic ice sheet surface air temperature station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a standard deviation of 2.0 C. The absolute values are not as good over the sea ice edges, but a comparison with Russian 2-m drift station temperatures shows very high correlation (with correlation coefficient at 0.998) and a standard deviation of 1.1 C. Overall, the rms error is estimated to be from 1 to 2 C, depending on the surface, while the average bias when compared with in situ data is less than 2 C.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Experimental studies of hypersonic boundary-layer transition and effects of wind tunnel disturbances

Boundary layer transition data on cones and free stream disturbance levels were measured in a hypersonic wind tunnel and Mach 8 variable density hypersonic tunnel. Transition data were obtained by using different conical models and techniques for detecting the location of transition. The disturbance levels were measured by using hot wire anemometry and pressure transducers. The transition Reynolds numbers obtained from the tests correlated well when the fluctuating pressures measured at the surface of conical models were used as a correlating parameter.

Stainback, P. C.↗

Reliability of Autonomic Responses and Malaise Across Multiple Motion Sickness Stimulation Tests

There is general agreement that a high degree of variability exists between subjects in their autonomic nervous system responses to motion sickness stimulation. Additionally, a paucity of data exists that examines the variability within an individual across repeated motion sickness tests. Investigators have also examined the relationship of autonomic responses to motion sickness development. These investigations have used analyses at discrete points in time to describe this relationship. This approach fails to address the time course of autonomic responses and malaise development throughout the motion sickness test. Our objectives were to examine the reliability of autonomic responses and malaise using the final minute of the motion sickness test across five testing occasions, to examine the reliability of the change in autonomic responses and the change in malaise across five testing occasions, and to examine the relationship between changes in autonomic responses and changes in malaise level across the entire motion sickness test. Our results indicate that, based on the final minute of testing, the autonomic responses of heart rate, blood volume pulse, and respiration rate are moderately stable across multiple tests. Changes in heart rate, blood volume pulse, respiration rate, and malaise throughout the test duration were less stable across the tests. We attribute this instability to variations in individual susceptibility and the error associated with estimating a measure of autonomic gain.

Stout, Cynthia S.↗

Canadian Experiment for Soil Moisture in 2010 (CanEX-SM10): Overview and Preliminary Results

The Canadian Experiment for Soil Moisture in 2010 (CanEx-SM10) was carried out in Saskatchewan, Canada from 31 May to 16 June, 2010. Its main objective was to contribute to Soil Moisture and Ocean salinity (SMOS) mission validation and the pre-launch assessment of Soil Moisture and Active and Passive (SMAP) mission. During CanEx-SM10, SMOS data as well as other passive and active microwave measurements were collected by both airborne and satellite platforms. Ground-based measurements of soil (moisture, temperature, roughness, bulk density) and vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index, biomass, vegetation height) were conducted close in time to the airborne and satellite acquisitions. Besides, two ground-based in situ networks provided continuous measurements of meteorological conditions and soil moisture and soil temperature profiles. Two sites, each covering 33 km x 71 km (about two SMOS pixels) were selected in agricultural and boreal forested areas in order to provide contrasting soil and vegetation conditions. This paper describes the measurement strategy, provides an overview of the data sets and presents preliminary results. Over the agricultural area, the airborne L-band brightness temperatures matched up well with the SMOS data. The Radio frequency interference (RFI) observed in both SMOS and the airborne L-band radiometer data exhibited spatial and temporal variability and polarization dependency. The temporal evolution of SMOS soil moisture product matched that observed with the ground data, but the absolute soil moisture estimates did not meet the accuracy requirements (0.04 m3/m3) of the SMOS mission. AMSR-E soil moisture estimates are more closely correlated with measured soil moisture.

Magagi, Ramata↗

The Caltech-NRAO Stripe 82 Survey (CNSS) Paper. I. The Pilot Radio Transient Survey in 50 Deg.(exp. 2)

We have commenced a multiyear program, the Caltech-NRAO Stripe 82 Survey (CNSS), to search for radio transients with the Jansky VLA in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region. The CNSS will deliver five epochs over the entire approx. 270 deg.(exp. 2) of Stripe 82, an eventual deep combined map with an rms noise of approx. 40 proper motion epoch y and catalogs at a frequency of 3 GHz, and having a spatial resolution of 3 inches. This first paper presents the results from an initial pilot survey of a 50 deg.(exp. 2) region of Stripe 82, involving four epochs spanning logarithmic timescales between 1 week and 1.5 yr, with the combined map having a median rms noise of 35 proper motion epoch y. This pilot survey enabled the development of the hardware and software for rapid data processing, as well as transient detection and follow-up, necessary for the full 270 deg.(exp. 2) survey. Data editing, calibration, imaging, source extraction, cataloging, and transient identification were completed in a semi-automated fashion within 6 hr of completion of each epoch of observations, using dedicated computational hardware at the NRAO in Socorro and custom-developed data reduction and transient detection pipelines. Classification of variable and transient sources relied heavily on the wealth of multiwavelength legacy survey data in the Stripe 82 region, supplemented by repeated mapping of the region by the Palomar Transient Factory. A total of 3.9(+0.5%/-0.9%) of the few thousand detected point sources werefound to vary by greater than 30%, consistent with similar studies at 1.4 and 5 GHz. Multiwavelength photometric data and light curves suggest that the variability is mostly due to shock-induced flaring in the jets of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Although this was only a pilot survey, we detected two bona fide transients, associated with an RS CVn binary and a dKe star. Comparison with existing legacy survey data (FIRST, VLA-Stripe 82) revealed additional highly variable and transient sources on timescales between 5 and 20 yr, largely associated with renewed AGN activity. The rates of such AGNs possibly imply episodes of enhanced accretion and jet activity occurring once every approx. 40,000 yr in these galaxies. We compile the revised radio transient rates and make recommendations for future transient surveys and joint radio-optical experiments.

galaxies: active – radio continuum: galaxies –↗

A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln

Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.

Ali, Asem M.↗