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Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the tropics

The spectral character of tropical convection is investigated in an 11-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to identify interaction with the tropical circulation. Along the equator in the eastern hemisphere, the space-time spectrum of convection possesses a broad peak at wavenumbers 1-3 and eastward periods of 35-95 days. Significantly broader than the dynamical signal of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), this quasi-discrete convective signal is associatd with a large-scale anomaly that propagates across and modulates time mean or 'climatological convection' over the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Outside that region the convective signal is small, even though, under amplified conditions, coherence can be found east of the date line and in the subtropics. Having a zonal scale of approximately wavenumber 2, anomalous convection propagates eastward at some 5 m/s and suppresses as well as reinforces climatological in the eastern hemisphere. The convective signal amplifies to a seasonal maximum near vernal equinox and, to a weaker degree, again near autumnal equinox, when climatological convection and warm sea surface temperature (SST) cross the equator. Contemporaneous records of motion from European Center for medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses and tropospheric-mean temperature from Microwave Sounding Unit reveal an anomalous component of the tropical circulation that coexists with the convective signal and embodies many of the established properties of the MJO. In the eastern hemisphere, subtropical Rossby gyres and zonal Kelvin structure along the equator flank the convective anomaly as it tracks eastward, giving the anomalous circulation to form of a 'forced response.' In the western hemisphere, the dynamical signal is composed chiefly of wavenumber-1 Kelvin structure, which as the form of a 'propagating response' that is excited in and radiates away from anomalous convection at some 10 m/s. Kelvin structure comprising the propagating response appears in 850-mb and 200-mb zonal winds even when the convective signal is absent, albeit with much smaller amplitude. In contrast, the signal in 1000-mb convergence appears only when accompanied by anomalous convection, which suggests that convergence in the boundary layer is instrumental in achieving strong interaction with the convective pattern.

Salby, Murry L.↗

The terminal area simulation system. Volume 1: Theoretical formulation

A three-dimensional numerical cloud model was developed for the general purpose of studying convective phenomena. The model utilizes a time splitting integration procedure in the numerical solution of the compressible nonhydrostatic primitive equations. Turbulence closure is achieved by a conventional first-order diagnostic approximation. Open lateral boundaries are incorporated which minimize wave reflection and which do not induce domain-wide mass trends. Microphysical processes are governed by prognostic equations for potential temperature water vapor, cloud droplets, ice crystals, rain, snow, and hail. Microphysical interactions are computed by numerous Orville-type parameterizations. A diagnostic surface boundary layer is parameterized assuming Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The governing equation set is approximated on a staggered three-dimensional grid with quadratic-conservative central space differencing. Time differencing is approximated by the second-order Adams-Bashforth method. The vertical grid spacing may be either linear or stretched. The model domain may translate along with a convective cell, even at variable speeds.

Proctor, F. H.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗

Structural analysis of stratocumulus convection

The 1 and 20 Hz data are examined from the Electra flights made on July 5, 1987. The flight legs consisted of seven horizontal turbulent legs at the inversion, midcloud, and below clouds, plus 4 soundings made within the same period. The Rosemont temperature sensor and the top and bottom dewpoint sensors were used to measure temperature and humidity at 1 Hz. Inversion structure and entrainment; local dynamics and large scale forcing; convective elements; and decoupling of cloud and subcloud are discussed in relationship to the results of the Electra flight.

Siems, S. T.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Improved Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and nonconvective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud-resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain-rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in TMI instantaneous rain-rate estimates at 0.5 -resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. Errors in collocated spaceborne radar rain-rate estimates are roughly 50%-80% of the TMI errors at this resolution. The estimated algorithm random error in TMI rain rates at monthly, 2.5deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm day.1) in comparison with the random error resulting from infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8%-35% at the same rain rate). Percentage errors resulting from sampling decrease with increasing rain rate, and sampling errors in latent heating rates follow the same trend. Averaging over 3 months reduces sampling errors in rain rates to 6%-15% at 5 mm day.1, with proportionate reductions in latent heating sampling errors.

Olson, William S.↗

Modeling study of a tropical squall-type convective line

The dynamic and microphysical processes associated with convective and stratiform regions in a tropical squall-type convective line are studied with a multidimensional, time-dependent cloud scale model. It is found that a two-dimensional model reproduces many features of tropical squall systems, including the fractional portion of stratiform rain and the stratiform fractional area coverage. A three-dimensional model did not capture stratiform features, but did simulate explosive growth and a convex-leading edge associated with the convective region. Results are presented from sensitivity tests on ice-phase microphysical processes and mesoscale middle and upper level ascent.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to reduced precipitation. However, in the presence of increasing moist and warm air, the reduced coalescence/collision may lead to supercooled drops at higher altitudes where ice precipitation falls and melts. The latent heat release from freezing aloft and melting below implies greater upward heat transport in polluted clouds and invigorate deep convection. In this way, aerosols may lead to increased local convection. Hence, depending on the ambient large-scale conditions and dynamical feedback processes, aerosols' effect on precipitation can be positive, negative or mixed. In the Asian monsoon and adjacent regions, the aerosol forcing and responses of the water cycle are even more complex, Both direct and indirect effects may take place locally and simultaneously, interacting with each other. in addition to local effects, monsoon rainfall may be affected by aerosols transported from other regions and intensified through large-scale circulation and moisture feedback. Thus, dust transported by the large-scale circulation from the adjacent deserts to northern India may affect rainfall over the Bay of Bengal; sulphate and black carbon front industrial pollution in central, southern China and northern India may affect the rainfall regime over the Korean peninsula and Japan; organic and black carbon front biomass burning from Indo-China may modulate the pre-monsoon rainfall regime over southern China and coastal regions, contributing to variability in differential heating and cooling of the atmosphere and to the land-sea thermal contrast. During the pre-monsoon season and monsoon breaks, it has been suggested that radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols have nearly the same order of magnitude as the forcing due to latent heating from convection and surface fluxes. The magnitude of the total aerosol radiative cooling due to sulphates and soot is of the order of 20-40 W/m2 over the Asian monsoon land region in the pre-monsoon season, compared to about 1-2 W/m2 for global warng. However, the combined forcing at the surface and in the atmosphere, including all species. if aerosols, and details of aerosol mixing, and impacts on the energy and water cycles in the monsoon land regions, are not well known.

Lau, William K. M.↗

An interactive system for analysis of global cloud imagery

Synoptic images of the global cloud pattern composited from six contemporaneous satellites provide an unprecedented view of the global cloud field. Having horizontal resolution of about 0.5 deg and temporal resolution of 3 h, the global cloud imagery (GCI) resolves most of the variability of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Although the GCI has these attractive features, the dense and 3D nature of that data make it a formidable volume of information to treat in a practical and efficient manner. An interactive image-analysis system (IAS) has been developed to investigate the space-time variability of global cloud behavior. In the IAS, data, hardware, and software are integrated into a single system providing a variety of space-time covariance analyses in a menu-driven format. Owing to its customized architecture and certain homogeneous properties of the GCI, the IAS calculates such quantities effectively. Many covariance statistics are derived from 3D data with interactive speed, allowing the user to interrogate the archive iteratively in a single session. The 3D nature of those analyses and the speed with which they are performed distinguish the IAS from conventional image processing of 2D data.

Woodberry, Karen↗

Global Cloud-Resolving Models

Global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs) are a new category of atmospheric global models designed to solve different flavors of the nonhydrostatic equations through the use of kilometer-scale global meshes. GCRMs make it possible to explicitly simulate deep convection, thereby avoiding the need for cumulus parameterization and allowing for clouds to be “resolved” by microphysical models responding to grid-scale forcing. GCRMs require high-resolution discretization over the globe, for which a variety of mesh structures have been proposed and employed. The first GCRM was constructed 15 years ago, and in recent years, other groups have also begun adopting this approach, enabling the first intercomparison studies of such models. Because conventional general circulation models (GCMs) suffer from large biases associated with cumulus parameterization, GCRMs are attractive tools for researchers studying global weather and climate. In this review, GCRMs are described, with some emphasis on their historical development and the associated literature documenting their use. The advantages of GCRMs are presented, and currently existing GCRMs are listed and described. Future prospects for GCRMs are also presented in the final section.

Satoh, Masaki↗

Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States

Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) are a result of powerful updrafts that rapidly transport air from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Aside from the well-known relationships between strong updrafts and severe weather, the boundaries of updrafts, including the OT, are turbulent, which leads to irreversible mixing of air between the stratosphere and troposphere, altering the composition of both layers. In order to better understand the impact of OTs, knowing precisely when and where they occur is vital. Within the last decade remote-sensing observations from satellites and radars have been used to identify OTs, but the results thus far have not been entirely consistent due to challenges with accurately identifying OTs with these sensor datasets. This study compares OTs identified using NEXRAD reflectivity data from the GridRad dataset with an approach that uses GOES infrared (IR) data. The GridRad method estimates the altitude of echo tops directly from the radar pointing geometry, merging a combination of radars that enables products every 5 mins, with 2 km spatial and 1 km vertical grid spacing. The GOES satellite method uses spatial patterns in tropopause-relative IR brightness temperature to derive an OT likelihood. The study region covers a large part of the contiguous United States during selected active convection dates in 2017 and includes data from GOES-13/16. A large sample of OTs observed by NEXRAD and GOES-13/16 satellites are analyzed to better understand NEXRAD and IR observations of OTs, quantify agreement between the OT detection methods, and demonstrate how the 4x increase in spatial resolution from GOES-13 to GOES-16 impacts OT algorithm detection performance. The results show that for nearly time-matched scenes, with many severe storms, GOES-13 and -16 detection accuracy is quite comparable; however, some missed detections are attributed to poorer GOES-13 image resolution. It was found that GOES-13 OT regions are ~2 K warmer than GOES-16 on average, but such differences exceed 5 K for the most intense OT regions. It is found that false GOES IR-based detections are unavoidable, given that cold cloud pixels significantly colder than the tropopause from nearby or recently decayed OTs can persist within anvils for 15 minutes or more.

John W. Cooney↗

Spaceborne Passive-Microwave and Visible/IR Observations of Severe Weather: Leveraging Multiple Perspectives for Detection, Validation, and Climatologies

Severe weather phenomena not only are responsible for damages to property, infrastructure, and agriculture, they are also difficult to measure in-situ and have been associated with large errors and uncertainties in precipitation estimation that pose challenges to establishing the current climatology of severe storms and their future trend in a changing Earth system. Severe convection exhibits distinct signatures in remote-sensing datasets, where it is manifested as textured or overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR imagery, or resulting a prominent brightness temperature depression in passive-microwave imagery. These distinct deep convective signatures in spaceborne datasets have been leveraged to analyze severe thunderstorms, create climatologies, improve prediction, and provide a method of detection around the globe where traditional ground-based data may be inconsistent or unavailable. Visible/IR and passive-microwave instruments are powerful tools for detecting severe thunderstorms, however, these datasets exhibit key limitations when examined individually: passive-microwave channels have large footprint and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. The visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. We investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together and assess the extent to which these datasets can be combined to improve severe thunderstorm detection. We pair passive microwave, IR, and visible signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis to characterize potentially severe convective storms observed by Aqua MODIS and AMSR-E. We will discuss how MODIS and AMSR-E signatures may be used together to diagnose storm properties and processes, and how the interrelationships between the signatures varies seasonally and geographically.

Sarah D. Bang↗

Detailed Structure of the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere as Revealed by Balloon Sonde Observations of Water Vapor, Ozone, Temperature, and Winds During the NASA TCSP and TC4 Campaigns

We report on balloon sonde measurements of water vapor and ozone using the cryogenic frost point hygrometer and electrochemical concentration cell ozonesondes made at Alajuela, Costa Rica (10.0 N, 84.2 W) during two NASA airborne campaigns: the Tropical Convective Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission in July 2005 and the Tropical Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4), July - August 2007. In both campaigns we found an upper troposphere that was frequently supersaturated but no evidence that deep convection had reached the tropopause. The balloon sondes were complemented by campaigns of 4 times daily high-resolution radiosondes from mid-June through mid-August in both years. The radiosonde data reveal vertically propagating equatorial waves that caused a large increase in the variability of temperature in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These waves episodically produced cold point tropopauses (CPTs) above 18 km, yet in neither campaign was saturation observed above approx 380 K or 17 km. The averages of the water vapor minima below this level were 5.2 ppmv in TCSP and 4.8 ppmv in TC4, and the individual profile minima all lay at or above approx 360 K. The average minima in this 360 C380 K layer provide a better estimate of the effective stratospheric entry value than the average mixing ratio at the CPT. We refer to this upper portion of the TTL as the tropopause saturation layer and consider it to be the locus of the final dehydration of nascent stratospheric air. As such, it is the local equivalent to the tape head of the water vapor tape recorder.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Cloud Simulations in Response to Turbulence Parameterizations in the GISS Model E GCM

The response of cloud simulations to turbulence parameterizations is studied systematically using the GISS general circulation model (GCM) E2 employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).Without the turbulence parameterization, the relative humidity (RH) and the low cloud cover peak unrealistically close to the surface; with the dry convection or with only the local turbulence parameterization, these two quantities improve their vertical structures, but the vertical transport of water vapor is still weak in the planetary boundary layers (PBLs); with both local and nonlocal turbulence parameterizations, the RH and low cloud cover have better vertical structures in all latitudes due to more significant vertical transport of water vapor in the PBL. The study also compares the cloud and radiation climatologies obtained from an experiment using a newer version of turbulence parameterization being developed at GISS with those obtained from the AR5 version. This newer scheme differs from the AR5 version in computing nonlocal transports, turbulent length scale, and PBL height and shows significant improvements in cloud and radiation simulations, especially over the subtropical eastern oceans and the southern oceans. The diagnosed PBL heights appear to correlate well with the low cloud distribution over oceans. This suggests that a cloud-producing scheme needs to be constructed in a framework that also takes the turbulence into consideration.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗

Air-sea interactions and cirrus cloud-radiation feedbacks on climate

A single cloud-radiation feedback mechanism, which may play a role in the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases, is described. An improved radiative-convective model was developed and used to study the role of cirrus clouds in the optical thickness feedback mechanism. The model includes prescribed relative humidity and ozone profiles and a surface energy balance. The results suggest that the cloud optical thickness feedback mechanism can cause a substantial reduction in the surface warming due to doubling CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Severe storm initiation and development from satellite infrared imagery and Rawinsonde data

The geographical distribution of potential temperatures, mixing ratio, and streamlines of flow patterns at 850, 700, and 500 mb heights are used to understand the prestorm convection and the horizontal convergence of moisture. From the analysis of 21 tornadoes the following conclusions are reached: (1) Strong horizontal convergence of moisture appeared at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels in the area 12 hours before the storm formation; (2) An abundantly moist atmosphere below 3 km (700 mb) becomes convectively unstable during the time period between 12 and 24 hours before the initiation of the severe storms; (3) Strong winds veering with height with direction parallel to the movement of a dryline, surface fronts, etc; (4) During a 36-hour period, a tropopause height in the areas of interest is lowest at the time of tornadic cloud formation; (5) A train of gravity waves is detected before and during the cloud formation period. Rapid-scan infrared imagery provides near real-time information on the life cycle of the storm which can be summarized as follows: (1) Enhanced convection produced an overshooting cloud top penetrating above the tropopause, making the mass density of the overshooting cloud much greater than the mass density of the surrounding air; (2) The overshooting cloud top collapsed at the end of the mature stage of the cloud development; (3) The tornado touchdown followed the collapse of the overshooting cloud top.

Hung, R. J.↗

Radiatively driven stratosphere-troposphere interactions near the tops of tropical cloud clusters

Results are presented of two numerical simulations of the mechanism involved in the dehydration of air, using the model of Churchill (1988) and Churchill and Houze (1990) which combines the water and ice physics parameterizations and IR and solar-radiation parameterization with a convective adjustment scheme in a kinematic nondynamic framework. One simulation, a cirrus cloud simulation, was to test the Danielsen (1982) hypothesis of a dehydration mechanism for the stratosphere; the other was to simulate the mesoscale updraft in order to test an alternative mechanism for 'freeze-drying' the air. The results show that the physical processes simulated in the mesoscale updraft differ from those in the thin-cirrus simulation. While in the thin-cirrus case, eddy fluxes occur in response to IR radiative destabilization, and, hence, no net transfer occurs between troposphere and stratosphere, the mesosphere updraft case has net upward mass transport into the lower stratosphere.

Churchill, Dean D.↗

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Amazonian Diurnal Cycle to Convective Intensity in Reanalyses

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics-specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Itterly, Kyle F.↗