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NASA NTRS2016

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dry and Wet CO 2 Capture from Milk‐Derived Microporous Carbons with Tuned Hydrophobicity

Abstract Pore size distribution and surface chemistry of bio‐derived (milk) microporous dominated carbon “MDC” is synergistically tuned, allowing for promising carbon capture in a dry CO 2 atmosphere and in mixed H 2 O–CO 2 . The capture capacity is attributed to the synergy of a large total surface area with an ultramicroporous and microporous texture (e.g., S tot 1889 m 2 g −1 , S mic 1755 m 2 g −1 , S ultra 1393 m 2 g −1 ), and a high content of nitrogen and oxygen heteroatom moieties (e.g., 5 at% N, 10.5 at% O). Tailored two‐step low‐temperature pyrolysis‐chemical activation is employed to take advantage of the intrinsic properties of the precursor, allowing for this unusual textural properties‐heteroatoms combination. For example, tested at 1 bar and 295 or 273 K, MDCs adsorb up to 22.0 and 29.4 wt% CO 2 , respectively. MDCs are also tailored to be hydrophobic, with CO 2 /H 2 O adsorption selectivity even after prolonged cycling. Maximum working capacities of 10.8 wt% for pure CO 2 and 3.5 wt% for a flue gas simulant (15% CO 2 , 85% N 2 ) are measured using temperature swing adsorption with dynamic purge gases, while being minimally affected by humid conditions. This work is directly aligned with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 13, take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

Pokrzywinski, Jesse↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Effects on precipitation, clouds, and temperature from long‐range transport of idealized aerosol plumes in WRF‐Chem simulations

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), we explored the impacts of nonlocal aerosol plumes transported at three different altitudes on a summertime convective system developed in a clean environment over the northeastern United States. Idealized aerosol plumes from forest fire and volcano emissions, which are known to be frequently transported in this region, were prescribed at three separate altitudes on the upstream boundary of WRF-Chem. The low-altitude (1.5–2.5 km) plume characteristic of forest fire emissions intersects the water clouds, resulting in optically thicker clouds and about a 30% decrease in accumulated precipitation. The precipitation response to the idealized aerosol plume is attributed to the aerosol “second indirect effect” and aerosol-induced enhancement in evaporation efficiency. Convection also significantly impacted this low-altitude aerosol plume because wet removal scavenges up to 70% of plume aerosols over regions where deep convection and precipitation occur. In stark contrast, midaltitude (5.6–6.6 km) and high-altitude (11.5–12.5 km) plumes exerted a negligible effect on clouds and precipitation. The apparent highly nonlinear sensitivity of simulated convection to the vertical positioning of nonlocal aerosol plumes is explained in terms of the dominant controls influencing this convection regime and limitations in the microphysics currently implemented in WRF-Chem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Characteristics of Impact Craters and Interior Deposits: Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Volatiles in the Highlands of Mars

The martian southern highlands contain impact craters that display pristine to degraded morphologies, and preserve a record of degradation that can be attributed to fluvial, eolian, mass wasting, volcanic and impact-related processes. However, the relative degree of modification by these processes and the amounts of material contributed to crater interiors are not well constrained. Impact craters (D>10 km) within Terra Cimmeria (0deg-60degS, 190deg-240degW), Terra Tyrrhena (0deg-30degS, 260deg-310degW) and Noachis Terra (20deg-50degS, 310deg-340degW) are being examined to better understand the degradational history and evolution of highland terrains. The following scientific objectives will be accomplished. 1) Determine the geologic processes that modified impact craters (and surrounding highland terrains). 2) Determine the sources (e.g. fluvial, lacustrine, eolian, mass wasting, volcanic, impact melt) and relative amounts of material composing crater interior deposits. 3) Document the relationships between impact crater degradation and highland fluvial systems. 4) Determine the spatial and temporal relationships between degradational processes on local and regional scales. And 5) develop models of impact crater (and highland) degradation that can be applied to these and other areas of the martian highlands. The results of this study will be used to constrain the geologic, hydrologic and climatic evolution of Mars and identify environments in which subsurface water might be present or evidence for biologic activity might be preserved.

Mest, S. C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal Controls on Microbial Depolymerization and Oxidation of Organic Matter in Floodplain Soils

Floodplain soils are vast reservoirs of organic carbon often attributed to anaerobic conditions that impose metabolic constraints on organic matter degradation. What remains elusive is how such metabolic constraints respond to dynamic flooding and drainage cycles characteristic of floodplain soils. Here, in this work, we show that microbial depolymerization and respiration of organic compounds, two rate-limiting steps in decomposition, vary spatially and temporally with seasonal flooding of mountainous floodplain soils (Gothic, Colorado, USA). Combining metabolomics and -proteomics, we found a lower abundance of oxidative enzymes during flooding coincided with the accumulation of aromatic, high-molecular weight compounds, particularly in surface soils. In subsurface soils, we found that a lower oxidation state of carbon coincided with a greater abundance of chemically reduced, energetically less favorable low-molecular weight metabolites, irrespective of flooding condition. Our results suggest that seasonal flooding temporarily constrains oxidative depolymerization of larger, potentially plant-derived compounds in surface soils; in contrast, energetic constraints on microbial respiration persist in more reducing subsurface soils regardless of flooding. Our work underscores that the potential vulnerability of these distinct anaerobic carbon storage mechanisms to changing flooding dynamics should be considered, particularly as climate change shifts both the frequency and extent of flooding in floodplains globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by a High–Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model Over the United States and China

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a large fraction of warm-season precipitation and generate hazardous weather with substantial socio-economic impacts. Uncertainties in convection parameterizations in climate models limit our understanding of MCS characteristics and reliability of future projection. We examine the MCS simulation from the global 14-km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) without cumulus parameterization against satellite observation from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) during 2001-2008. We focus on MCSs over the central U.S. and eastern China where MCSs prevail from March to August. A process-oriented tracking method incorporating both cloud and precipitation criteria is used to identify and track MCSs. About 140/100 MCSs initiate in the central U.S./eastern China per warm season and most of them initiate east of high mountains and in coastal regions. The frequency distribution of MCS lifetime is well captured in NICAM. But the simulated MCSs have stronger precipitation, smaller precipitation area, and larger cold cloud system than observed in both regions, which may be caused by weak entrainment as it is not well resolved at 14 km resolution. Here, the simulated MCS number is also underestimated in summer. By examining the climatological and MCS large-scale environments, the significant underestimation of MCS number in summer over the central U.S. may be attributed to the large climatological dry bias in the atmosphere. For China, mean moisture in summer is well simulated but deficiency in capturing the dynamic condition related to the coastal topography for triggering convection may have contributed to underestimation of MCS even in a sufficiently moist environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantifying drivers of wild pig movement across multiple spatial and temporal scales

The movement behavior of an animal is determined by extrinsic and intrinsic factors that operate at multiple spatio-temporal scales, yet much of our knowledge of animal movement comes from studies that examine only one or two scales concurrently. Understanding the drivers of animal movement across multiple scales is crucial for understanding the fundamentals of movement ecology, predicting changes in distribution, describing disease dynamics, and identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. We obtained over 400,000 GPS locations of wild pigs from 13 different studies spanning six states in southern U.S.A., and quantified movement rates and home range size within a single analytical framework. We used a generalized additive mixed model framework to quantify the effects of five broad predictor categories on movement: individual-level attributes, geographic factors, landscape attributes, meteorological conditions, and temporal variables. We examined effects of predictors across three temporal scales: daily, monthly, and using all data during the study period. We considered both local environmental factors such as daily weather data and distance to various resources on the landscape, as well as factors acting at a broader spatial scale such as ecoregion and season. We found meteorological variables (temperature and pressure), landscape features (distance to water sources), a broad-scale geographic factor (ecoregion), and individual-level characteristics (sex-age class), drove wild pig movement across all scales, but both the magnitude and shape of covariate relationships to movement differed across temporal scales. The analytical framework we present can be used to assess movement patterns arising from multiple data sources for a range of species while accounting for spatio-temporal correlations. Our analyses show the magnitude by which reaction norms can change based on the temporal scale of response data, illustrating the importance of appropriately defining temporal scales of both the movement response and covariates depending on the intended implications of research (e.g., predicting effects of movement due to climate change versus planning local-scale management). We argue that consideration of multiple spatial scales within the same framework (rather than comparing across separate studies post-hoc) gives a more accurate quantification of cross-scale spatial effects by appropriately accounting for error correlation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Viable Path Forward to Carbon Capture and Storage in Wyoming, USA

The State of Wyoming, USA, benefits from favorable geologic, regulatory, and infrastructure attributes that promote efficient and sustainable carbon capture and storage (CCS). Two research sites in Wyoming exhibit high potential for the underground geologic storage of greater than 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over 25 years. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance and Facility Enterprise (DOE CarbonSAFE) Phase I prefeasibility initiative, studies of both sites indicate promising capture, transport, utilization, and storage characteristics. The Dry Fork site is located near Gillette, in northeast Wyoming. Four storage reservoir/seal pairs have been identified at the Dry Fork site that provide excellent prospects for stacked storage of CO 2 . All four reservoirs lie at sufficient depths to maintain supercritical CO 2 and all four seals exhibit favorable characteristics for stratigraphic confinement. The reservoir with the highest expected significance is the Pennsylvanian/Permian Minnelusa Formation, which consists of near-shore dunes and shoreline sands, as well as shale and carbonate layers. The Minnelusa resides at a depth of ~2,900 m below the land surface and is ~45 m thick in the study area. Average porosity for samples from core within 10 km of the study area is 9%, with permeability values as high as 169 mD (n=6). The Permian Opeche Formation seals the Minnelusa and consists of redbed shales with minor fine-grained siltstones and evaporite deposits. Entry pressures as high as ~4700 psia were measured by mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) analysis on core samples from the Opeche. A CarbonSAFE Phase II feasibility proposal at the Dry Fork site has recently been selected by DOE for negotiation leading to award. The second proposed site is located at the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) in southwest Wyoming. Four reservoir/seal pairs have been studied at the RSU, all of which present promising geologic attributes for the stacked storage of CO 2 . The two deepest reservoirs (Mississippian Madison Limestone and Pennsylvanian/Permian Weber Formation) and their seals were studied previously under the auspices of the Wyoming Carbon Underground Storage Project (WY-CUSP), which was funded by DOE and the State of Wyoming. For the more recent CarbonSAFE initiative, two shallower reservoir/seal pairs were studied in detail. The highest priority of these reservoirs is the Triassic/Jurassic Nugget Formation, which consists of eolian sands and minor fluvial and interdune deposits. The Nugget lies at a depth of ~2,800 m and is ~140 m thick in the study area. Average measured porosity for samples from core within 40 km of the study site is 9%, with permeability values as high as 91 mD (n=10). The Nugget is sealed by the overlying Jurassic Gypsum Spring and Morrison Formations, as well as a thick (~1,700 m) regional Upper Cretaceous seal that includes shales from multiple geologic units. Entry pressures as high as 1120 psia were measured by MICP for shales within this regional confining unit. Overall, the State of Wyoming provides an advantageous climate to develop sustainable integrated CCS projects based on the following considerations: (1) well-characterized and favorable geology; (2) some of the largest deposits of economically recoverable coal in the USA; (3) an existing CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, including CO 2 pipeline infrastructure; (4) supportive commercial enterprises, including utilities and the oil and gas industry; (5) supportive policymakers; (6) a favorable legal and regulatory environment; (7) proximity to carbon-constrained markets such as the State of California; (8) large CO 2 emission sources, including coal-fired power plants; and (9) backing for carbon capture, storage, and management related research and development, specifically implementation of the Integrated Test Center at Dry Fork Station, which is hosting the coal-track of the NRG/COSIA Carbon XPrize® competition.

Phillips, Erin↗

NASA NTRS1990

Examination of the use of narrowband radiances for earth radiation budget studies

The relationship between narrowband and broadband thermal radiances is explored to determine the accuracy of outgoing longwave radiation derived from narrowband data. Infrared window (11.5 microns) data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite are correlated with longwave (5.0 - 50.0 microns) data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. A simple quadratic fit between the narrowband and longwave fluxes results in a standard error of the estimate of 4.5-5.3 percent for data which are matched closely in time and space. Use of matched regional flux data with temporal differences up to a half hour yield standard errors of 4.6-5.9 percent. About one fourth of the magnitude of the error may be attributed to limb-darkening and temporal differences in the matched fluxes. The relationship shows a significant dependence on the relative humidity of the atmosphere above the radiating surface. Although this dependency accounts for only about 2 percent of the standard error, it reduces the monthly mean regional errors by more than 10 percent. Data taken over land produced a slightly different relationship than data taken over water. The differences appear to be due to the higher altitudes of the land radiating surfaces. Cloud amount and height also influence the narrowband-broadband relationship. Inclusion of these parameters does not affect the standard errors but it reduces the montly mean regional errors by another 10 percent. Better humidity and temperature data and knowledge of cloud microphysics may be required to further improve the relationship. Using the best fits, it is concluded that the monthly mean outgoing flux may be determined with an rms uncertainty of 1.7 percent using a single infrared window channel with coincident cloud and humidity data. Regional concentrations of the errors, however, make the use of narrowband data too unreliable for monitoring the longwave flux for climate change studies.

Young, David F.↗

DOE OSTI2011

Long-term impacts of aerosols on vertical development of cloud and precipitation

Aerosols alter cloud density and the radiative balance of the atmosphere. This leads to changes in cloud microphysics and atmospheric stability, which can either suppress or foster the development of clouds and precipitation. The net effect is largely unknown, but depends on meteorological conditions and aerosol properties. Here, we examine the long-term impact of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and rainfall frequencies, using a 10-year dataset of aerosol, cloud and meteorological variables collected in the Southern Great Plains in the United States. We show that cloud-top height and thickness increase with aerosol concentration measured near the ground in mixed-phase clouds-which contain both liquid water and ice-that have a warm, low base. We attribute the effect, which is most significant in summer, to an aerosol-induced invigoration of upward winds. In contrast, we find no change in cloud-top height and precipitation with aerosol concentration in clouds with no ice or cool bases. We further show that precipitation frequency and rain rate are altered by aerosols. Rain increases with aerosol concentration in deep clouds that have a high liquid-water content, but declines in clouds that have a low liquid-water content. Simulations using a cloud-resolving model confirm these observations. Our findings provide unprecedented insights of the long-term net impacts of aerosols on clouds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of January 2005 Solar Proton Events on Chlorine Species

Sudden changes in stratospheric chlorine species in the polar northern atmosphere, caused by the Solar Proton Events (SPEs) of 17 and 20 January 2005, have been investigated and compared with version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). We used Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements to monitor the variability of ClO, HCl, HOCl and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounder (MIPAS) on ENVISAT to retrieve ClONO2. SPE-induced chlorine activation has been identified. HCl decrease occurred at nearly all the investigated altitudes with the lowest values (of less than 0.25 ppbv) on 21 January. HOCl was found to be the main active chlorine species under nighttime conditions (with increases of more than 0.2 ppbv) whereas both HOCL and CLO enhancements (about 0.1 ppbv) have been observed at the polar night terminator. Further, small ClO decreases (of less than 0.1 ppbv) and ClONO2 enhancements (~0.2 ppbv) have been observed at higher latitudes (i.e., at nighttime) roughly above 2hPa. While WACCM4 reproduces most of the SPE-induced variability in the chlorine species fairly well, in some particular regions discrepancies between the modeled and measured temporal evolution of the abundances of chlorine species were found. HOCl changes are modelled very well with respect to both magnitude and geographic distribution. ClO decreases are reproduced at high latitudes, whereas ClO enhancements in the terminator region are underestimated and attributed to background variations. WACCM4 also reproduces the HCl depletion in the mesosphere but it does not show the observed decrease below about 2 hPa. Finally, WACCM4 simulations indicate that the observed ClONO2 increase is dominated by background variability, although SPE-induced production might contribute by 0.1 ppbv.

Damiani, A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical index for understanding distinct land relative humidity trends in observations, reanalyses, and models

Land surface relative humidity (RH) is a key variable in the coupled land–atmosphere system that profoundly influences terrestrial hydroclimate and ecosystems. Yet historical changes in land RH are not well understood due to limited observations, biased reanalyses, and the lack of a framework for interpreting RH changes under multiple influencing factors. Here, we show that the spatiotemporal variability of land RH and its distinct historical trends among observations, reanalyses, and Earth system models are captured by a simple index based on the ratio of precipitation (P) to a modified potential evapotranspiration formulated independently of RH (PET°). The index provides a physical calibration of biased land RH in reanalyses and a quantitative framework for interpreting land RH changes. Over 1973–2024, land RH has decreased substantially, owing to the intrinsic rise in PET° with temperature and little increase in land precipitation. Reanalyses overestimate the observed RH decrease, consistent with exaggerated surface warming and precipitation decline. The index captures this coherent bias and enables a calibration using observed precipitation and temperature. Models simulate a wide range of land RH trends, but nearly all runs underrepresent the historical drying. The index captures the model spread and discrepancy and attributes them to contributions of precipitation and PET°. Weaker land RH decreases in models arise mainly from weaker subtropical precipitation declines, linked to muted intensification of subtropical highs and biased subtropical climatology. The model–observation discrepancy is unlikely explained by internal variability, implying model underestimation of forced RH decrease and a drier land future than current projections.

Earth system models↗

DOE OSTI2016

Managing Risks Associated with Global Nuclear Energy Expansion: Emerging Challenges and Cooperative Solutions Workshop Summary Report.

Global nuclear energy has reached a critical juncture. The footprint of nuclear energy is growing and will continue to grow in coming decades to meet increasing global energy demands, desires for energy security, and mounting concerns about climate change. This growth includes construction of reactors in countries new to the nuclear energy enterprise, in addition to expansion of existing programs. The lack of operational experience coupled with weak regulatory systems in some countries raises the potential of a nuclear accident. The expansion of nuclear energy is also met with an increasingly complex threat environment, with threats to nuclear security from non-state actors as well as the continued risks of state proliferation. The trend towards increasingly digitized and networked nuclear facilities significantly expands operational uncertainty and adds complexity to implementing safeguards and security. These factors merit fresh consideration of potential safety, safeguards, security, and cyber (3SC) risks, as well as approaches for managing those risks in an integrated, sustainable, and internationally cooperative manner. In an effort to explore the emerging challenges and cooperative solutions to the global expansion of nuclear energy The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs and Sandia National Laboratories convened a group of more than thirty experts from government, national laboratories, non-government organizations, and academia on May 5th, 2016 at George Washington University to discuss these issues in a not-for-attribution environment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Soil Moisture Variability Intensifies and Prolongs Eastern Amazon Temperature and Carbon Cycle Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of climate and carbon cycle variability in the Amazon. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive teleconnections with temperature directly through changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes also impact precipitation and, consequently, soil moisture, enabling additional indirect effects on temperature through land–atmosphere coupling. To separate the direct influence of ENSO SST anomalies from the indirect effects of soil moisture, a mechanism-denial experiment was performed to decouple their variability in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) forced with observed SSTs from 1982 to 2016. Soil moisture variability was found to amplify and extend the effects of SST forcing on eastern Amazon temperature and carbon fluxes in E3SM. During the wet season, the direct, circulation-driven effect of ENSO SST anomalies dominated temperature and carbon cycle variability throughout the Amazon. During the following dry season, after ENSO SST anomalies had dissipated, soil moisture variability became the dominant driver in the east, explaining 67%–82% of the temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña years, and 85%–91% of the difference in carbon fluxes. These results highlight the need to consider the interdependence between temperature and hydrology when attributing the relative contributions of these factors to interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Specifically, when offline models are forced with observations or reanalysis, the contribution of temperature may be overestimated when its own variability is modulated by hydrology via land–atmosphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

FLUXNET-CH4: a global, multi-ecosystem dataset and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20°S to 20°N) the spring onset of elevated CH4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH4 peak). FLUXNET-CH4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

FLUXNET-CH4↗