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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning of Key Variables Impacting Extreme Precipitation in Various Regions of the Contiguous United States

Abstract Amplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large‐scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non‐negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the Atmospheric Mn Cycle and Its Impact on Terrestrial Biogeochemistry

Abstract The role of manganese (Mn) in ecosystem carbon (C) biogeochemical cycling is gaining increasing attention. While soil Mn is mainly derived from bedrock, atmospheric deposition could be a major source of Mn to surface soils, with implications for soil C cycling. However, quantification of the atmospheric Mn cycle, which comprises emissions from natural (desert dust, sea salts, volcanoes, primary biogenic particles, and wildfires) and anthropogenic sources (e.g., industrialization and land‐use change due to agriculture), transport, and deposition, remains uncertain. Here, we use compiled emission data sets for each identified source to model and quantify the atmospheric Mn cycle by combining an atmospheric model and in situ atmospheric concentration measurements. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mn in aerosols (<10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) to be 1,400 Gg Mn year −1 . Approximately 31% of the emissions come from anthropogenic sources. Deposition of the anthropogenic Mn shortened Mn “pseudo” turnover times in 1‐m‐thick surface soils (ranging from 1,000 to over 10,000,000 years) by 1–2 orders of magnitude in industrialized regions. Such anthropogenic Mn inputs boosted the Mn‐to‐N ratio of the atmospheric deposition in non‐desert dominated regions (between 5 × 10 −5 and 0.02) across industrialized areas, but that was still lower than soil Mn‐to‐N ratio by 1–3 orders of magnitude. Correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between Mn deposition and topsoil C density across temperate and (sub)tropical forests, consisting with atmospheric Mn deposition enhancing carbon respiration as seen in in situ biogeochemical studies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Mapping Glacier Basal Sliding Applying Machine Learning

During the RESOLVE project (“High-resolution imaging in subsurface geophysics: development of a multi-instrument platform for interdisciplinary research”), continuous surface displacement and seismic array observations were obtained on Glacier d’Argentière in the French Alps for 35 days in May 2018. The data set is used to perform a detailed study of targeted processes within the highly dynamic cryospheric environment. In particular, the physical processes controlling glacial basal motion are poorly understood and remain challenging to observe directly. Especially in the Alpine region for temperate based glaciers where the ice rapidly responds to changing climatic conditions and thus, processes are strongly intermittent in time and heterogeneous in space. Spatially dense seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements are analyzed applying machine learning to gain insight into the processes controlling glacial motions of Glacier d’Argentière. Using multiple bandpass-filtered copies of the continuous seismic waveforms, we compute energy-based features, develop a matched field beamforming catalog and include meteorological observations. Features describing the data are analyzed with a gradient boosting decision tree model to directly estimate the GPS displacements from the seismic noise. We posit that features of the seismic noise provide direct access to the dominant parameters that drive displacement on the highly variable and unsteady surface of the glacier. The machine learning model infers daily fluctuations and longer term trends. The results show on-ice displacement rates are strongly modulated by activity at the base of the glacier. The techniques presented provide a new approach to study glacial basal sliding and discover its full complexity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Reducing Long‐Standing Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by High‐Resolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NO x emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NO x to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of the Out‐Of‐Plane Flow Shear on Magnetic Reconnection at the Flanks of Earth's Magnetopause

Abstract Magnetic reconnection changes the magnetic field topology and facilitates the energy and particle exchange at magnetospheric boundaries such as the Earth's magnetopause. The flow shear perpendicular to the reconnecting plane prevails at the flank magnetopause under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. However, the effect of the out‐of‐plane flow shear on asymmetric reconnection is an open question. In this study, we utilize kinetic simulations to investigate the impact of the out‐of‐plane flow shear on asymmetric reconnection. By systematically varying the flow shear strength, we analyze the flow shear effects on the reconnection rate, the diffusion region structure, and the energy conversion rate. We find that the reconnection rate increases with the upstream out‐of‐plane flow shear, and for the same upstream conditions, it is higher at the dusk side than at the dawn side. The diffusion region is squeezed in the outflow direction due to magnetic pressure which is proportional to the square of the Alfvén Mach number of the shear flow. The out‐of‐plane flow shear increases the energy conversion rate , and for the same upstream conditions, the magnitude of is larger at the dusk side than at the dawn side. This study reveals that out‐of‐plane flow shear not only enhances the reconnection rate but also significantly boosts energy conversion, with more pronounced effects on the dusk‐side flank than on the dawn‐side flank. These insights pave the way for better understanding the solar wind‐magnetosphere interactions.

Liang, Haoming↗

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Concentrations and Health Implications of As, Hg, and Cd and Micronutrients in Rice and Emissions of CH 4 From Variably Flooded Paddies

Abstract The flooded soil conditions under which rice is typically grown are beneficial for boosting yield and decreasing herbicide inputs but may pose a food safety and environmental health risk. Flooded soils lead to reducing conditions and anaerobic metabolisms of soil microorganisms, which mobilizes arsenic from soil into soil solution, where it can be absorbed by rice roots and transported to grain. These conditions also promote the production and emission of methane (CH 4 )—a potent greenhouse gas. To evaluate how water management affects metal(loid) grain concentrations and CH 4 emissions, we conducted a 2‐year field study in which rice paddy water was managed under a range of soil redox conditions that spanned from flooded to non‐flooded. We observed that growing rice under less flooded conditions decreased CH 4 emissions and concentrations of grain total As, grain inorganic As, grain total Hg, and grain inorganic Hg relative to flooded conditions, with more reductions observed as conditions were drier; grain organic As and Hg (MeHg) species also decreased with drier conditions particularly in Year 1. However, the driest conditions tested led to a 50%–97% increase in grain Cd concentrations that exceeded the CODEX limit and grain yield reductions as high as 25% and 40% in Year 1 and 2, respectively. While concentrations of toxic metal(loid)s could be manipulated by water management, micronutrient concentrations were similar or decreased with drier conditions, potentially increasing grain Cd bioaccessibility to humans. Because practices for rice water management are gaining momentum, more research should monitor grain Cd levels along with micronutrients.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

The P132H mutation in the main protease of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 decreases thermal stability without compromising catalysis or small-molecule drug inhibition

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to be a significant threat to global health. First reported in November 2021, the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is more transmissible and can evade immunity better than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, fueling an unprecedented surge in cases. To produce functional proteins from its polyprotein, SARS-CoV-2 relies on the cysteine proteases Nsp3/papain-like protease (PL pro ) and Nsp5/main protease (M pro )/3C-like protease to cleave at three and more than 11 sites, respectively. Therefore, M pro and PL pro inhibitors are considered to be one of the most promising SARS-CoV-2 antivirals. On December 22, 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for PAXLOVID, a ritonavir-boosted formulation of nirmatrelvir. Nirmatrelvir is a first-in-class orally bioavailable SARS-CoV-2 M pro inhibitor. Thus, the scientific community must vigilantly monitor potential mechanisms of drug resistance, especially because SARS-CoV-2 is naïve to M pro inhibitors. Mutations have been well identified in variants to this point. Notably, Omicron M pro (OM pro ) harbors a single mutation—P132H. Here, we characterized the enzymatic activity, drug inhibition, and structure of OM pro while evaluating the past and future implications of M pro mutations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cavity piezo-mechanics for superconducting-nanophotonic quantum interface

Abstract Hybrid quantum systems are essential for the realization of distributed quantum networks. In particular, piezo-mechanics operating at typical superconducting qubit frequencies features low thermal excitations, and offers an appealing platform to bridge superconducting quantum processors and optical telecommunication channels. However, integrating superconducting and optomechanical elements at cryogenic temperatures with sufficiently strong interactions remains a tremendous challenge. Here, we report an integrated superconducting cavity piezo-optomechanical platform where 10 GHz phonons are resonantly coupled with photons in a superconducting cavity and a nanophotonic cavity at the same time. Taking advantage of the large piezo-mechanical cooperativity ( C em ~7) and the enhanced optomechanical coupling boosted by a pulsed optical pump, we demonstrate coherent interactions at cryogenic temperatures via the observation of efficient microwave-optical photon conversion. This hybrid interface makes a substantial step towards quantum communication at large scale, as well as novel explorations in microwave-optical photon entanglement and quantum sensing mediated by gigahertz phonons.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Heterophase fcc-2H-fcc gold nanorods

The crystal phase-based heterostructures of noble metal nanomaterials are of great research interest for various applications, such as plasmonics and catalysis. However, the synthesis of unusual crystal phases of noble metals still remains a great challenge, making the construction of heterophase noble metal nanostructures difficult. Here, we report a one-pot wet-chemical synthesis of well-defined heterophase fcc-2H-fcc gold nanorods (fcc: face-centred cubic; 2H: hexagonal close-packed with stacking sequence of "AB") at mild conditions. Single particle-level experiments and theoretical investigations reveal that the heterophase gold nanorods demonstrate a distinct optical property compared to that of the conventional fcc gold nanorods. Moreover, the heterophase gold nanorods possess superior electrocatalytic activity for the carbon dioxide reduction reaction over their fcc counterparts under ambient conditions. First-principles calculations suggest that the boosted catalytic performance stems from the energetically favourable adsorption of reaction intermediates, endowed by the unique heterophase characteristic of gold nanorods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Highly reversible oxygen redox in layered compounds enabled by surface polyanions

Oxygen-anion redox in lithium-rich layered oxides can boost the capacity of lithium-ion battery cathodes. However, the over-oxidation of oxygen at highly charged states aggravates irreversible structure changes and deteriorates cycle performance. Here, we investigate the mechanism of surface degradation caused by oxygen oxidation and the kinetics of surface reconstruction. Considering Li 2 MnO 3 , we show through density functional theory calculations that a high energy orbital (lO 2p’ ) at under-coordinated surface oxygen prefers over-oxidation over bulk oxygen, and that surface oxygen release is then kinetically favored during charging. We use a simple strategy of turning under-coordinated surface oxygen into polyanionic (SO 4 ) 2- , and show that these groups stabilize the surface of Li 2 MnO 3 by depressing gas release and side reactions with the electrolyte. Experimental validation on Li 1.2 Ni 0.2 Mn 0.6 O 2 shows that sulfur deposition enhances stability of the cathode with 99.0% capacity remaining (194 mA h g -1 ) after 100 cycles at 1 C. Our work reveals a promising surface treatment to address the instability of highly charged layered cathode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Dielectric screening in perovskite photovoltaics

Abstract The performance of perovskite photovoltaics is fundamentally impeded by the presence of undesirable defects that contribute to non-radiative losses within the devices. Although mitigating these losses has been extensively reported by numerous passivation strategies, a detailed understanding of loss origins within the devices remains elusive. Here, we demonstrate that the defect capturing probability estimated by the capture cross-section is decreased by varying the dielectric response, producing the dielectric screening effect in the perovskite. The resulting perovskites also show reduced surface recombination and a weaker electron-phonon coupling. All of these boost the power conversion efficiency to 22.3% for an inverted perovskite photovoltaic device with a high open-circuit voltage of 1.25 V and a low voltage deficit of 0.37 V (a bandgap ~1.62 eV). Our results provide not only an in-depth understanding of the carrier capture processes in perovskites, but also a promising pathway for realizing highly efficient devices via dielectric regulation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Engineering new limits to magnetostriction through metastability in iron-gallium alloys

Magnetostrictive materials transduce magnetic and mechanical energies and when combined with piezoelectric elements, evoke magnetoelectric transduction for high-sensitivity magnetic field sensors and energy-efficient beyond-CMOS technologies. The dearth of ductile, rare-earth-free materials with high magnetostrictive coefficients motivates the discovery of superior materials. Fe 1- x Ga x alloys are amongst the highest performing rare-earth-free magnetostrictive materials; however, magnetostriction becomes sharply suppressed beyond x = 19% due to the formation of a parasitic ordered intermetallic phase. Here, we harness epitaxy to extend the stability of the BCC Fe 1- x Ga x alloy to gallium compositions as high as x = 30% and in so doing dramatically boost the magnetostriction by as much as 10x relative to the bulk and 2x larger than canonical rare-earth based magnetostrictors. A Fe 1- x Ga x - [Pb(Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 ] 0.7 -[PbTiO 3 ] 0.3 (PMN-PT) composite magnetoelectric shows robust 90° electrical switching of magnetic anisotropy and a converse magnetoelectric coefficient of 2.0 × 10 -5 s m -1 . When optimally scaled, this high coefficient implies stable switching at ~80 aJ per bit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗