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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

A linear feedback guidance law for an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle

The sensitivity of the trajectory of an Aeromaneuvering Orbit-to-Orbit Shuttle (AMOOS) to unpredictable variations in atmospheric density is shown and a compensating guidance law is developed. The sensitivity was determined using a varying atmosphere model whose statistical properties matched those of actual atmosphere data. This study showed that a compensating guidance law is crucial to the feasibility of AMOOS. Using an optimal regulator approach, a linear feedback law for bank angle was developed and checked out with the atmosphere model. This law uses the altitude profile of the trajectory to control the amount of energy dissipated within the atmosphere.

Rehder, J. J.↗

On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models

The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System-Documentation of Versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0

This report documents the GEOS-5 global atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), including the versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0, which have been implemented in products distributed for use by various NASA instrument team algorithms and ultimately for the Modem Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The DAS is the integration of the GEOS-5 atmospheric model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, a joint analysis system developed by the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the NASA/Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The primary performance drivers for the GEOS DAS are temperature and moisture fields suitable for the EOS instrument teams, wind fields for the transport studies of the stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry communities, and climate-quality analyses to support studies of the hydrological cycle through MERRA. The GEOS-5 atmospheric model has been approved for open source release and is available from: http://opensource.gsfc.nasa.gov/projects/GEOS-5/GEOS-5.php.

M. M. Rienecker↗

Characterization of low-mass, wide-separation substellar companions to stars in upper SCORPIUS: Near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy

We present new 0.9–2.45 μm spectroscopy (R∼1000 ), and Y, J, H, K{sub s}, L{sup ′} photometry, obtained at Gemini North, of three low-mass brown dwarf companions on wide orbits around young stars of the Upper Scorpius OB association: HIP 78530 B, [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B, and GSC 06214-00210 B. We use these data to assess the companions’ spectral type, temperature, surface gravity, and mass, as well as the ability of the BT-SETTL and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models to reproduce the spectral features of young substellar objects. For completeness, we also analyze the archival spectroscopy and photometry of the Upper Scorpius planetary mass companion 1RXS J160929.1-210524 b. Based on a comparison with model spectra we find that the companions, in the above order, have effective temperatures of 2700 ± 100, 2500 ± 200, 2300 ± 100, and 1700 ± 100 K. These temperatures are consistent with our inferred spectral types, respectively M7 β, M9 γ, M9 γ, and L4 γ, obtained from spectral indices and comparisons with templates. From bolometric luminosities estimated from atmosphere model spectra adjusted to our photometry, and using evolution models at 5–10 Myr, we estimate masses of 21–25, 28–70, 14–17, and 7–12 M{sub Jup}, respectively. [PGZ 2001] J161031.9-191305 B appears significantly overluminous for its inferred temperature, which explains its higher mass estimate. Synthetic spectra based on the BT-Settl and Drift-Phoenix atmosphere models generally offer a good fit to our observed spectra, although our analysis has highlighted a few problems. For example, the best fits in the individual near-infrared bands occur at different model temperatures. Also, temperature estimates based on a comparison of the broadband magnitudes and colors of the companions to synthetic magnitudes from the models are systematically lower than the temperature estimates based on a comparison with synthetic spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Evaluating Model Performance of an Ensemble-based Chemical Data Assimilation System During INTEX-B Field Mission

We present a global chemical data assimilation system using a global atmosphere model, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) with simplified chemistry and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package. DART is a community software facility for assimilation studies using the ensemble Kalman filter approach. Here, we apply the assimilation system to constrain global tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) by assimilating meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind velocity and satellite CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument. We verify the system performance using independent CO observations taken on board the NSFINCAR C-130 and NASA DC-8 aircrafts during the April 2006 part of the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B). Our evaluations show that MOPITT data assimilation provides significant improvements in terms of capturing the observed CO variability relative to no MOPITT assimilation (i.e. the correlation improves from 0.62 to 0.71, significant at 99% confidence). The assimilation provides evidence of median CO loading of about 150 ppbv at 700 hPa over the NE Pacific during April 2006. This is marginally higher than the modeled CO with no MOPITT assimilation (-140 ppbv). Our ensemble-based estimates of model uncertainty also show model overprediction over the source region (i.e. China) and underprediction over the NE Pacific, suggesting model errors that cannot be readily explained by emissions alone. These results have important implications for improving regional chemical forecasts and for inverse modeling of CO sources and further demonstrate the utility of the assimilation system in comparing non-coincident measurements, e.g. comparing satellite retrievals of CO with in-situ aircraft measurements. The work described above also brought to light several short-comings of the data assimilation approach for CO profiles. Because of the limited vertical resolution of the measurement, the retrievals at different altitudes are correlated which can lead to problems with numerical error and overall efficiency. This has resulted in a manuscript that is about to be submitted to JGR:

Arellano, A. F., Jr.↗

Atmosphere variability at Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter science orbit altitudes based on Mars Express Reconstructions

This paper describes the orbit reconstruction of Mars Express (MEX) with the specific goal of estimating the atmospheric density near periapsis and evaluating its variability and predictability. The desired outcome is to validate the covariance analysis assumption of atmospheric variability for the 2005 NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), as well as evaluate the accuracy of the density estimates output from the atmosphere model used by MRO. Topics covered include the MRO atmosphere model, MEX orbit determination and post-fit Doppler residuals, and atmosphere trending statistics gleaned from the orbit reconstructions.

Higas, Earl↗

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

Range of Density Variability from Surface To 120 km Altitude

A re-entry space vehicle development program, such as Project Apollo, requires a knowledge of the variability of atmospheric density from the surface of the earth to re-entry altitude (120 km). This report summarizes the data on density given in the most recent literature on the subject. The range of atmospheric density with respect to the ARDC 1959 Model Atmosphere is determined and shown graphically. From the surface to 30 km altitude abundant information on density is available. From 30 to 90 km altitude the summarized reports of observations made at a limited number of stations have been used. Between 90 and 120 km altitude the density is somewhat speculative, there being but few measurements available. Therefore, the qualitative values for the variability of density above 30 km must be considered tentative. Variations of atmospheric density by latitude and seasons made it necessary to develop a family of curves rather than a single profile. Three curves are presented to show the range of density deviation versus altitudes with respect to the ARDC 1959 Model Atmosphere. Each curve is used for a specific latitude range and season.

Orvel E Smith↗

Spectro-thermometry of M dwarfs and their candidate planets: Too hot, too cool, or just right?

We use moderate-resolution spectra of nearby late K and M dwarf stars with parallaxes and interferometrically determined radii to refine their effective temperatures, luminosities, and metallicities. We use these revised values to calibrate spectroscopic techniques to infer the fundamental parameters of more distant late-type dwarf stars. We demonstrate that, after masking out poorly modeled regions, the newest version of the PHOENIX atmosphere models accurately reproduce temperatures derived bolometrically. We apply methods to late-type hosts of transiting planet candidates in the Kepler field, and calculate effective temperature, radius, mass, and luminosity with typical errors of 57 K, 7%, 11%, and 13%, respectively. We find systematic offsets between our values and those from previous analyses of the same stars, which we attribute to differences in atmospheric models utilized for each study. We investigate which of the planets in this sample are likely to orbit in the circumstellar habitable zone. We determine that four candidate planets (KOI 854.01, 1298.02, 1686.01, and 2992.01) are inside of or within 1σ of a conservative definition of the habitable zone, but that several planets identified by previous analyses are not (e.g., KOI 1422.02 and KOI 2626.01). Only one of the four habitable-zone planets is Earth sized, suggesting a downward revision in the occurrence of such planets around M dwarfs. These findings highlight the importance of measuring accurate stellar parameters when deriving parameters of their orbiting planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The GRAM-3 model

The Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) is under continuous development and improvement. GRAM data were compared with Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) predictions and with shuttle data. An important note: Users should employ only step sizes in altitude that give vertical density gradients consistent with shuttle-derived density data. Using too small a vertical step size (finer then 1 km) will result in what appears to be unreasonably high values of density shears but what in reality is noise in the model.

Justus, C. G.↗

Numerical analysis and modeling of atmospheric phenomena

For the past 22 years Grant NGR 22-009-727 has been supporting research in the Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography (and its predecessors) in a wide variety of diagnostic and modeling studies of atmospheric and ocean phenomena. Professor Jule Charney was the initial Principal Investigator. Professor Peter Stone joined him as co-Principal Investigator in 1975 and became the sole Principal Investigator in 1981. During its lifetime the Grant has supported in whole or in part 11 Master's theses, 14 Ph.D. theses, and 45 papers published in refereed scientific journals. All of these theses and papers (with bibliographic references) are listed below. All but one of the theses were used to fulfill the requirements for MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) degrees and are available from the MIT libraries. The one exception is F. Chen's Ph.D. thesis which was for a Harvard degree and is available from the Harvard libraries. In addition to the work described in the citations listed below, the Grant has supported Research Assistant Amy Solomon during the past two years to carry out a study of how baroclinic adjustment is affected by vertical resolution, vertical temperature structure, and dissipation. Ms. Solomon plans to use this project for her Ph.D. thesis. Support for this project will continue under NASA Grant NAG 5-2490, 'The Factors Controlling Poleward Heat Transport in Climate Models.'

Stone, Peter H.↗

Validation of RU-WRF, the Custom Atmospheric Mesoscale Model of the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership

The Rutgers University Center for Ocean Observing Leadership (RU-COOL) contracted the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate RU-COOL's atmospheric observation and modeling capabilities for characterizing the New Jersey offshore wind resource. The observational network used by RU-COOL consists of mostly public but some private coastal and offshore buoy-based stations. The core wind resource modeling capability of RU-COOL is a custom setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, referred to in this report as RU-WRF. The most unique feature of RU-WRF and not found in other WRF model setups is the use of custom sea surface temperature (SST) product generated by RU-COOL. This custom product was designed to better capture the unique coastal upwelling and strong storm mixing in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, which other typical SST products are not designed to capture. Funding for the development, maintenance, and use of RU-WRF by RU-COOL is provided by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, who also funded the validation work presented in this report. In this validation study, NREL was specifically tasked to: 1) Assess the observational network used by RU-COOL to validate RU-WRF and make recommendations for improvement, 2) Assess methods used by RU-COOL to validate RU-WRF and make recommendations for improvement, 3) Examine the inputs to and setup within RU-WRF, compare against available NREL data sets, and make recommendations for improvement.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multidimensional Modeling of Atmospheric Effects and Surface Heterogeneities on Remote Sensing

The overall goal of this project is to establish a modeling capability that allows a quantitative determination of atmospheric effects on remote sensing including the effects of surface heterogeneities. This includes an improved understanding of aerosol and haze effects in connection with structural, angular, and spatial surface heterogeneities. One important objective of the research is the possible identification of intrinsic surface or canopy characteristics that might be invariant to atmospheric perturbations so that they could be used for scene identification. Conversely, an equally important objective is to find a correction algorithm for atmospheric effects in satellite-sensed surface reflectances. The technical approach is centered around a systematic model and code development effort based on existing, highly advanced computer codes that were originally developed for nuclear radiation shielding applications. Computational techniques for the numerical solution of the radiative transfer equation are adapted on the basis of the discrete-ordinates finite-element method which proved highly successful for one and two-dimensional radiative transfer problems with fully resolved angular representation of the radiation field.

Gerstl, S. A. W.↗

Mars-GRAM 2010: Additions and Resulting Improvements

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM has been utilized during previous aerobraking operations in the atmosphere of Mars. Mars-GRAM has also been used in the prediction and validation of Mars Pathfinder hypersonic aerodynamics, the aerothermodynamic and entry dynamics studies for Mars Polar Lander, the landing site selection process for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the Mars Aerocapture System Study (MASS) as well as the Aerocapture Technology Assessment Group (TAG). Most recently, Mars-GRAM 2010 was used to develop the onboard atmospheric density estimator that is part of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Plan. The most recent release of Mars-GRAM 2010 contains several changes including an update to Fortran 90/95 and the addition of adjustment factors. Following the completion of a comparison analysis between Mars-GRAM, Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), as well as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) aerobraking density data, adjustment factors were added to Mars-GRAM 2010 that alter the input data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for the mapping year 0 user-controlled dust case. The addition of adjustment factors resolved the issue of previous versions of Mars-GRAM being less than realistic when used for sensitivity studies for mapping year 0 and large optical depth values, such as tau equal to 3. Mars-GRAM was evaluated at locations and times of TES limb observations and adjustment factors were determined. For altitudes above 80 km and below 135 km, Mars-GRAM (MTGCM) densities were compared to aerobraking densities measured by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to determine the adjustment factors. The adjustment factors generated by this process had to satisfy the gas law as well as the hydrostatic relation and are expressed as a function of height (z), Latitude (Lat) and areocentric solar longitude (Ls). The greatest adjustments are made at large optical depths such as tau greater than 1. The addition of the adjustment factors has led to better correspondence to TES Limb data from 0-60 km altitude as well as better agreement with MGS, ODY and MRO data at approximately 90-130 km altitude. Improved Mars-GRAM atmospheric simulations for various locations, times and dust conditions on Mars will be presented at the workshop session. The latest results validating Mars-GRAM 2010 versus Mars Climate Sounder data will also be presented. Mars-GRAM 2010 updates have resulted in improved atmospheric simulations which will be very important when beginning systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for future aerocapture, aerobraking or landed missions to Mars.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

A new and inexpensive non-bit-for-bit solution reproducibility test based on time step convergence (TSC1.0)

A test procedure is proposed for identifying numerically significant solution changes in evolution equations used in atmospheric models. The test issues a fail signal when any code modifications or computing environment changes lead to solution differences that exceed the known time step sensitivity of the reference model. Initial evidence is provided using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.3 that the proposed procedure can be used to distinguish rounding-level solution changes from impacts of compiler optimization or parameter perturbation, which are known to cause substantial differences in the simulated climate. The test is not exhaustive since it does not detect issues associated with diagnostic calculations that do not feedback to the model state variables. Nevertheless, it provides a practical and objective way to assess the significance of solution changes. The short simulation length implies low computational cost. The independence between ensemble members allows for parallel execution of all simulations, thus facilitating fast turnaround. The new method is simple to implement since it does not require any code modifications. We expect that the same methodology can be used for any geophysical model to which the concept of time step convergence is applicable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric attenuation relative to earth-viewing orbital sensors

Earth viewing space missions offer exciting new possibilities in several earth resources disciplines - geography, hydrology, agriculture, geology, and oceanography, to name a few. A most useful tool in planning experiments and applying space technology to earth observation is a statistical description of atmospheric parameters. Four dimensional atmospheric models and a world wide cloud model are used to produce atmospheric attenuation models to predict degradation effects for all classes of sensors for application to earth sensing experiments from spaceborne platforms. To insure maximum utility and application of these products, the development of an interaction model of microwave energy and atmospheric variables provides a complete description of the effects of atmospheric moisture upon microwaves.

Brown, S. C.↗