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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

SHOCK CONNECTIVITY IN THE 2010 AUGUST AND 2012 JULY SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS INFERRED FROM OBSERVATIONS AND ENLIL MODELING

During periods of increased solar activity, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur in close succession and proximity to one another. This can lead to the interaction and merger of CME ejecta as they propagate in the heliosphere. The particles accelerated in these shocks can result in complex solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as observing spacecraft form both remote and local shock connections. It can be challenging to understand these complex SEP events from in situ profiles alone. Multipoint observations of CMEs in the near-Sun environment, from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory –Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph, greatly improve our chances of identifying the origin of these accelerated particles. However, contextual information on conditions in the heliosphere, including the background solar wind conditions and shock structures, is essential for understanding SEP properties well enough to forecast their characteristics. Wang–Sheeley–Arge WSA-ENLIL + Cone modeling provides a tool to interpret major SEP event periods in the context of a realistic heliospheric model and to determine how much of what is observed in large SEP events depends on nonlocal magnetic connections to shock sources. We discuss observations of the SEP-rich periods of 2010 August and 2012 July in conjunction with ENLIL modeling. We find that much SEP activity can only be understood in the light of such models, and in particular from knowing about both remote and local shock source connections. These results must be folded into the investigations of the physics underlying the longitudinal extent of SEP events, and the source connection versus diffusion pictures of interpretations of SEP events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Sun Chaser - A Mission to the Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point 4

Placed at L4, Sun Chaser is a mission concept that will follow (or chase) high-energy processes around the west limb, combining solar remote sensing & in situ observations, and overseeing the entire solar radiation hemisphere. Sun Chaser’s remote sensing is essential for ~90% of current physics-based and empirical solar energetic particle (SEP) event forecasting techniques. Without Sun Chaser, there cannot be a basis for SEP event all-clear forecasting. It establishes and maintains a space weather (SWx) radiation safe zone that supports all near-term human missions to the Moon and Mars. Sun Chaser latitude in-situ coverage also provides a unique opportunity for solar wind-, interplanetary- and interstellar-dust science. In combination with existing and planned observatories at L1 and L5, the three locations provide 240° longitude coverage of resolving photospheric magnetic field structure and safe Earth-directed CME viewing. A ~14°-inclination of both L4 and L5 out of the ecliptic guarantees continuous viewing of both solar poles and continuous in-situ presence on both sides of the heliographic equator, with >3.6° elevation. Extended observations in both longitude and latitude will revolutionize global solar wind modeling and immediate validation, and enables the development of local helioseismology, with potential for long-term solar activity forecasting.

space weather↗
DOE OSTI2016

TESTING THE EFFECTS OF EXPANSION ON SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE

We present a multi-spacecraft approach to test the predictions of recent studies on the effect of solar wind expansion on the radial spectral, variance, and local 3D anisotropies of the turbulence. We found that on small scales (5000–10,000 km) the power levels of the B-trace structure functions do not depend on the sampling direction with respect to the radial suggesting that on this scale the effect of expansion is small possibly due to fast turbulent timescales. On larger scales (110–135 R{sub E}), the fluctuations of the radial magnetic field component are reduced by ∼20% compared to the transverse (perpendicular to radial) ones, which could be due to expansion confining the fluctuations into the plane perpendicular to radial. For the local 3D spectral anisotropy, the B-trace structure functions showed dependence on the sampling direction with respect to radial. The anisotropy in the perpendicular plane is reduced when the increments are taken perpendicular with respect to radial, which could be an effect of expansion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF L5 MAGNETOGRAMS ON NON-POTENTIAL SOLAR CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD SIMULATIONS

The proposed Carrington-L5 mission would bring instruments to the L5 Lagrange point to provide us with crucial data for space weather prediction. To assess the importance of including a magnetograph, we consider the possible differences in non-potential solar coronal magnetic field simulations when magnetograph observations are available from the L5 point, compared with an L1-based field of view (FOV). A timeseries of synoptic radial magnetic field maps is constructed to capture the emergence of two active regions from the L5 FOV. These regions are initially absent in the L1 magnetic field maps, but are included once they rotate into the L1 FOV. Non-potential simulations for these two sets of input data are compared in detail. Within the bipolar active regions themselves, differences in the magnetic field structure can exist between the two simulations once the active regions are included in both. These differences tend to reduce within 5 days of the active region being included in L1. The delayed emergence in L1 can, however, lead to significant persistent differences in long-range connectivity between the active regions and the surrounding fields, and also in the global magnetic energy. In particular, the open magnetic flux and the location of open magnetic footpoints, are sensitive to capturing the real-time of emergence. These results suggest that a magnetograph at L5 could significantly improve predictions of the non-potential corona, the interplanetary magnetic field, and of solar wind source regions on the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Severe weather prediction studies

A numerical forecast model is described which uses three-dimensional primitive equations to predict the evolution of the wind, temperature and moisture fields along with the subsynoptic-scale convective activity. There are 15 vertical levels set on a longitude-latitude horizontal grid. In this study, the horizontal grid distance is 70 km (0.625 deg latitude and 0.816 deg longitude at 40 deg N) and the time step is 90 sec. Orography is included and terrain coordinates are adopted. The forecast model is used to test two tornado-producing storms with very different synoptic structures. A 12 hr forecast is carried out for both cases. The rms errors of the forecast indicate much smaller errors in the middle troposphere than in the lower troposphere. The results demonstrate that a rather fine-mesh limited-area numerical model is capable of providing a valuable short-range forecast of the circulation and the mesoscale precipitation features.

Chang, C.-B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A stability analysis of AVE-4 severe weather soundings

The stability and vertical structure of an average severe storm sounding, consisting of both thermodynamic and wind vertical profiles, were investigated to determine if they could be distinguished from an average lag sounding taken 3 to 6 hours prior to severe weather occurrence. The term average is defined here to indicate the arithmetic mean of a parameter, as a function of altitude, determined from a large number of available observations taken either close to severe weather occurrence, or else more than 3 hours before it occurs. The investigative computations were also done to help determine if a severe storm forecast or index could possibly be used or developed. These mean vertical profiles of thermodynamic and wind parameters as a function of severity of the weather, determined from manually digitized radar (MDR) categories are presented. Profile differences and stability index differences are presented along with the development of the Johnson Lag Index (JLI) which is determined entirely upon environmental vertical parameter differences between conditions 3 hours prior to severe weather, and severe weather itself.

Johnson, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of vertical velocities analyzed by a numerical model and measured by a VHF wind profiler

The use of wind profilers for measuring vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is potentially of great interest for verification of forecasts, diagnosis of mesoscale circulations, and studies of wave motions. The studies of profiler vertical velocities to date have shown that the observed patterns of ascent and subsidence are reasonable when compared to the synoptic conditions. However, difficulties arise when a direct verification of the profiler vertical winds is sought. Since no other technique can measure the vertical velocities over the same height range and with the same claimed accuracy as the profilers, direct comparisons are impossible. The only alternative is to compare the measurements to analyzed vertical velocity fields. Here, researchers compare vertical measurements made with the SOUSY VHF radar over a period of 11 days at the beginning of November 1981 to the analyzed vertical velocities produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for grid points near the radar site.

Larsen, M. F.↗
DOE OSTI2011

THIRD MOMENTS AND THE ROLE OF ANISOTROPY FROM VELOCITY SHEAR IN THE SOLAR WIND

We have extended the recent analyses of magnetohydrodynamic third moments as they relate to the turbulent energy cascade in the solar wind to consider the effects of large-scale shear flows. Moments from a large set of Advanced Composition Explorer data have been taken, and chosen data intervals are characterized by the rate of change in the solar wind speed. Mean dissipation rates are obtained in accordance with the predictions of homogeneous shear-driven turbulence. Agreement with predictions is best made for rarefaction intervals where the solar wind speed is decreasing with time. For decreasing speed intervals, we find that the dissipation rates increase with increasing shear magnitude and that the shear-induced fluctuation anisotropy is consistent with a relatively small amount.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of simple terrain on the spatial variability of a low-level jet and wind farm performance in the AWAKEN field campaign

In wind energy research, scientific challenges are often associated with complex terrain sites, where orography, vegetation, and buildings disrupt flow uniformity. However, even sites characterized as simple terrain can exhibit significant spatial variability in wind speed, particularly during stable boundary layers (SBLs) and low-level jets (LLJs). This study investigates these terrain interactions using both simulations and observations from the American WAKe ExperimeNt (AWAKEN). We employ a multiscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation, integrating mesoscale forcing in the coarse domains and representing three rows of turbines from the King Plains wind farm as generalized actuator disks (GAD) in the large-eddy simulation (LES) domains. During a nocturnal LLJ event on 3 April 2023, the downstream, wake-affected turbine rows outperformed the upstream, unwaked row by 25 %–51 %. This counterintuitive result arises from terrain-induced streamwise variations in hub-height wind speed of approximately 4 m s −1 over 5 km – equivalent to ∼50 % of the upstream reference speed. This enhancement outweighs the wake-induced reduction in mean wind speed (∼12 %) and global blockage effects reported in the literature (∼1 %–3.4 %). The multiscale simulations capture the intra-farm spatial variability in power performance observed in SCADA data. Terrain-induced vertical displacement of the LLJ, coupled with large wind shear below the jet maximum, drives the substantial streamwise acceleration within the wind farm. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial variability related to terrain, even in simple landscapes, particularly during LLJ conditions. Incorporating such effects into reduced-order modeling frameworks for wind farm design and control could significantly enhance their effectiveness.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

An experiment in hurricane track prediction using parallel computing methods

The barotropic model is used to explore the advantages of parallel processing in deterministic forecasting. We apply this model to the track forecasting of hurricane Elena (1985). In this particular application, solutions to systems of elliptic equations are the essence of the computational mechanics. One set of equations is associated with the decomposition of the wind into irrotational and nondivergent components - this determines the initial nondivergent state. Another set is associated with recovery of the streamfunction from the forecasted vorticity. We demonstrate that direct parallel methods based on accelerated block cyclic reduction (BCR) significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the elliptic equations germane to this decomposition and forecast problem. A 72-h track prediction was made using incremental time steps of 16 min on a network of 3000 grid points nominally separated by 100 km. The prediction took 30 sec on the 8-processor Alliant FX/8 computer. This was a speed-up of 3.7 when compared to the one-processor version. The 72-h prediction of Elena's track was made as the storm moved toward Florida's west coast. Approximately 200 km west of Tampa Bay, Elena executed a dramatic recurvature that ultimately changed its course toward the northwest. Although the barotropic track forecast was unable to capture the hurricane's tight cycloidal looping maneuver, the subsequent northwesterly movement was accurately forecasted as was the location and timing of landfall near Mobile Bay.

Song, Chang G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Studies regarding the quality of numerical weather forecasts of the WRF model integrated at high-resolutions for the Romanian territory

Our paper aims to evaluate the quality of high-resolution weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The lateral and boundary conditions were obtained from the numerical output of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model at 7 km horizontal resolution. Furthermore, the WRF model was run for January and July 2013 at two horizontal resolutions (3 and 1 km). The numerical forecasts of the WRF model were evaluated using different statistical scores for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Our results showed a tendency of the WRF model to overestimate the values of the analyzed parameters in comparison to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The climatological distribution of extreme Arctic winds and implications for ocean and sea ice processes

Abstract Some of the strongest near‐surface winds on Earth form in the Arctic and sub‐Arctic due to intense midlatitude cyclones and mesoscale processes, and these strong surface winds have important impacts on ocean and sea ice processes. We examine the climatological distribution of over‐ocean, near‐surface wind speeds within a Pan‐Arctic domain for 18 years (1990–2007) in four gridded data sets: the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA‐I), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, version 2 of the Common Ocean‐Ice Reference Experiment data set, and a regional climate simulation generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 50 km (WRF50) horizontal resolution with ERA Interim as lateral boundary conditions. We estimate probability density functions, the annual cycle, and map the 50th and 99th percentile winds. We then perform the same statistical analysis of winds for 2 years when 10 km WRF data are available (June 2005 to May 2007); despite the much shorter time period, the Pan‐Arctic statistics are very similar to those from the 18 year analysis. We repeat the wind speed statistical analysis within a subdomain surrounding Greenland and find that WRF10 has consistently larger maximum wind speeds, but this difference only appears at wind speed percentiles higher than 99%. Differences in the 99th percentile wind speeds are spatially heterogeneous. An investigation of surface fluxes within WRF50 and WRF10 reveals unrealistically large sensible heat fluxes along the sea ice edge, and the geographic distribution and magnitude of these fluxes is shown to be sensitive to sea ice representation in WRF.

Hughes, Mimi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Energy Yield Estimates via a Metocean Reference Site

The offshore wind industry is burgeoning in the coastal waters of the United States, specifically along the Atlantic. For wind energy to be successful, reliable observations and model simulations are needed for resource assessment and forecasting. While many of these activities have already begun, there is currently an absence of observations at hub-height in these waters, with the closest available hub-height measurements usually taken onshore. Deployment of floating lidars has occurred through various federally funded projects, but only encapsulates time periods of a couple of years at best. Private industry is also beginning to leverage floating lidars, but this data is often proprietary, and not shared with the general public. In this work, we make the case for a metocean reference site for long-term offshore wind energy. Specifically, we quantify the impact of having a metocean reference site compared to other methods of determining hub-height winds and energy production. We use an offshore floating lidar to directly measure the wind resource, and compare these measurements to predictions derived from other widely-available surface meteorological variables. These prediction methods (vertical extrapolation, machine learning, and NWP output) produce a variety of vertical wind speed profiles, of which produce different energy yield estimates for a reference offshore turbine (Figure 1). While some methods perform reasonably well against the lidar, the uncertainty in these energy yield estimates has financial implications, further illustrating the need for long-term measurements in coastal waters.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the effects of dust-radiative forcing on the movement of Hurricane Helene (2006)

This study is the first to relate Saharan dust and tropical cyclone (TC) movement over the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean (ECAO) using observations and modeling. An eastward position forecast bias for TCs over ECAO has been noticed and is potentially related to the neglect of dust-radiative forcing in numerical models. Using 11-year observations we found that aerosol optical depth and TC westward speed over ECAO are correlated (0.62) with a confidence level of 99%. The Weather Research and Forecasting dust model was used to quantitatively study the impact of the dust-radiative forcing on Helene’s (2006) track forecasts with 3 different microphysics schemes. The dust-radiative forcing increases the temperature in the warm Saharan Air Layer, thus increases the temperature gradient and modifies wind speed and/or direction along the southern flank of the dust plume, improving Helene’s track. Including dust-radiative forcing reduces the error in 7-day position forecasts by 27% (~205km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.

Watson, Andrew I.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Studies of coastal mesoscale winds using SIR-B

The variability of the mesoscale wind fields near coastlines which can be caused by mountains that shadow offshore wind and by valleys that enhance them. These wind, provide relatively fixed patterns that must be considered in the development of algorithms for future spaceborne scatterometer systems; mesoscale variability over the offshore regions is random and must be averaged out for forecasting yet nearshore fixed patterns are treated differently. Before the patterns of interest can be defined quantitatively, the scattering response of the ocean to winds at the L-band frequency and SIR-B angles of incidence must be developed from the SIR-B data. Patterns can be analyzed on the images both in regions selected for high probability of the occurrence of suitable patterns, and in other regions where the patterns are observed. The patterns are analyzed for topographic effects and the distance to sea over which these effects cause variations in the oceanic wind patterns. The results are interpreted in terms of quantitative description of the processes involved and in for need of modifications of future scatterometer algorithms.

Moore, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Doppler lidar for measurement of atmospheric wind fields

Measurements of wind fields in the earth's troposphere with daily global coverage is widely considered as a significant advance for forecasting and transport studies. For optimal use by NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models the horizontal and vertical resolutions should be approximately 100 km and 1 km, respectively. For boundary layer studies vertical resolution of a few hundred meters seems essential. Earth-orbiting Doppler lidar has a unique capability to measure global winds in the troposphere with the high vertical resolution required. The lidar approach depends on transmission of pulses with high spectral purity and backscattering from the atmospheric aerosol particles or layered clouds to provide a return signal. Recent field measurement campaigns using NASA research aircraft have resulted in collection of aerosol and cloud data which can be used to optimize the Doppler lidar instrument design and measurement strategy.

Menzies, Robert T.↗