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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Data and code repository for "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?"

There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In the study "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?", we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 50% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales. This repository includes all the data and codes we use for analyses in this study. Users may use them to reproduce the results of this study on their end.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-Dependent Rate Theory Model of Radiation-Induced Segregation in Binary Alloys

Conventional rate theory often uses the mean field concept to describe the effect of inhomogeneous microstructures on the evolution of radiation induced defect and solute/fission product segregation. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of defects and solutes determines the formation and spatial distribution of radiation-induced second phase such as precipitates and gas bubbles/voids, especially in materials with complicated microstructures and subject to high dose radiation. In this work, a microstructure-dependent model of radiation-induced segregation (RIS) has been developed to investigate the effect of inhomogeneous thermodynamic and kinetics properties of defects on diffusion and accumulations of solute A in AB binary alloys. Four independent concentrations: atom A, interstitial A, interstitial B, and vacancy on [A, B] sublattice are used as field variables to describe temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of defects and solute A. The independent concentrations of interstitial A and interstitial B allow to describe their different generation rates, thermodynamic and kinetic properties, and release the assumptions of interstitial generation and sink strength used in the conventional rate theory. Microstructure and concentration dependent chemical potentials of defects are used to calculate the driving forces of defect diffusions. With the model, the effects of defect chemical potentials and mobilities on the RIS in polycrystalline AB model alloys have been simulated. The results demonstrated the model capability in predicting defect evolution in materials with inhomogeneous thermodynamic and kinetic properties of defects. The model can be extended to materials with complicated microstructures such as a wide range of grain size distribution, coating structure and multiphases as well as radiation-induced precipitation subject to severe radiation damage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Building Archetypes for Los Angeles (2100 Projection)

This dataset (Data.zip) includes empirical and machine learning-generated building information for the Los Angeles urban region. The MAv1_LA.csv file provides the baseline 2015 building data while Final_IECC_LO_2100_GAN.csv represents generative adversarial network-projected urban morphologies for the year 2100. Building archetypes were created for both datasets (Basecase_LA_Archetype.csv and LA_Simulation_2100_GAN_Archetype.csv) using footprint area as the key aggregation variable. More details about the dataset are provided in the attached readme file (README_LA_Archetype_MAv1.txt)

AutoBEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

FY25 status report on the addition of candidate materials in Class B Code Case

This report provides the time-dependent allowable stress calculation strategy leveraging the limited creep rupture tests data generated to support the allowable stress for 100,000 hours in American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section II, Part D. A variable confidence index procedure to extrapolate material properties to support 500,000 hours design life is discussed. Time-dependent allowable stresses for Class B component design and analysis are presented for Grade 1 and Grade 2 of Alloy 625. The presented data extrapolation and allowable stress calculation method will support new material addition using limited creep rupture data in the new ASME Boiler and BPVC, Section III, Division 5, Class B rules.

Part D↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and optimization of a modular hydrogen-based integrated energy system to maximize revenue via nuclear-renewable sources

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel modular distributed framework that uses optimal energy-dispatching strategies to enable greater flexibility and profitability in nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (NR-IES). Hydrogen is used as a commodity in this framework since its production can improve grid stability and system operational flexibility, decarbonize heavy industry, and create an additional revenue stream for electricity generators, particularly nuclear power plants with high operational expenses. The proposed solution addresses the challenges associated with merging multiple software and services from various domains by using functional mock-up units (FMU) to co-simulate diverse subsystems designed in various platforms. The tightly coupled integrated energy system (IES) is optimized to maximize revenue by utilizing the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique to make smart dispatching decisions based on variable electricity prices and the availability of renewable energy. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is used in training and testing the DRL agent. Over a period of 120 days, the proposed hydrogen-based IES framework showed about 10% revenue boost compared to a non-hydrogen generating baseline IES while also providing an easily-adoptable framework which can help to improve the flexibility of future generation nuclear power plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration”

This data package is associated with “Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration” published in EGU Biogeosciences (Stegen et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3981-2026). It contains cotton strip decomposition rates (Kcd and Kdd) collected across the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. These data were collected to support a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. Associated data used in analysis, metadata, and field protocols can be accessed at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1969566, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1987520. This data package is associated with the repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-ST-2B-SSS-cotton-strip. A preliminary version of this data package was published in December 2025 at the time of manuscript submission. It was updated in June 2026, at the time of manuscript acceptance, to include additional metadata (this readme, data dictionary, and file level metadata). The data did not change. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of (1) readme; (2) data dictionary (dd); (3) file level metadata (flmd); and (4) four folders: (1) R-scripts; (2) figures; (3) outputs from the scripts; and (4) published data. The published data folder contains a readme directing the user to download data in order to run the R-scripts. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .Rmd, and .txt. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of Deploying Advanced Pumped Storage Hydropower Technology in U.S. Electricity Markets

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a type of hydropower technology where energy can be stored and generated by moving water between two reservoirs of differing elevations. In addition to providing 97% of the total utility-scale hydropower storage in the United States, PSH plants have operational characteristics - such as high ramp rates and the ability to provide reserves - that contribute to greater flexibility and reliability of the power grid. New PSH technologies can provide additional flexibility beyond existing, fixed-speed units. With the emergence of high levels of variable renewable energy resources (e.g., wind and solar), energy storage is expected to be crucial to the reliability and reliance of the power grid in a low-carbon future. At diurnal and longer durations, PSH plants have some of the lowest costs per unit of energy, have been proven to be reliable and efficient, are not cycle-limited, and typically have long lives, often exceeding 50 years. The work presented here focuses on a new generation of PSH: ternary PSH and quaternary PSH (together referred to as T/Q-PSH). Given recent experience in Europe, grid operators in the United States and elsewhere are increasingly focusing their attention on T/Q-PSH as a proven, financeable technology that can offer utility-scale, long-duration, fast-acting energy storage capabilities and grid services. T/Q-PSH differs from conventional PSH in that it can provide fast-response ancillary services during both generating and pumping operations. This capability together with fast mode switching times are key attributes that make T/Q-PSH technologies attractive for managing and stabilizing electricity systems with high amounts of variable renewable energy.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript modeling microbial regulation of priming effects

This data package is associated with the publication “Modeling Microbial Regulatory Feedback in Organic Matter Decomposition Identifies Copiotrophic Traits as Key Drivers of Positive Priming” published as a preprint on BioRXiv by Ahamed et al. (2026); https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.11.607483. The package contains MATLAB scripts and saved simulation outputs used to implement a cybernetic model of microbial regulation during complex organic matter (OM) decomposition governing priming effects. It includes models of (i) single microbial functional groups (copiotrophic or oligotrophic degraders) and (ii) binary consortia composed of degraders and non-degraders with contrasting or common growth traits. Simulation results were generated using Monte Carlo analyses, with randomized key model parameters across a range of environmental mixing fractions of complex and labile OM. The dataset was created to provide a transparent and reusable computational framework for systematically exploring how microbial growth traits, metabolic regulation, and community composition influence OM decomposition dynamics and priming effects. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes the variable definitions. This package includes: (1) annotated MATLAB code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws; (2) saved output files containing data (e.g., biomass, substrates, enzyme levels, priming metrics); and (3) scripts for processing saved outputs and regenerating figures. Specifically, the data package contains three main MATLAB scripts: runPrimingModel.m, runPlotData.m, and runPlotSuppFigS1.m, along with this readme and supporting documentation. Users should begin with runPrimingModel.m, which contains the annotated code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws. This script runs the Monte Carlo simulations of microbial OM decomposition and allows users to modify microbial trait definitions, adjust parameter distributions, or define new community configurations. Simulation outputs are automatically saved as .mat files in the folder named SavedData, which stores all pre-generated results included in this package. The second script, runPlotData.m, reads files from the SavedData folder and processes them to regenerate the figures presented in the manuscript. The third script, runPlotSuppFigS1.m, specifically generates Figure S1 in the Supplementary Material of the manuscript. The package also includes the aforementioned files in non-proprietary .txt format. If users intend to use them, they should first save the files in their respective .m or .mat formats prior to execution in MATLAB.

Biomass concentration↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational analysis of flame initiation, quenching, and re-ignition in a prechamber natural gas engine under varying EGR-dilution levels

The on-road natural-gas (NG) fueled transportation relies on stoichiometric spark-ignition engines for the advantages of simple after-treatment system despite the efficiency penalty relative to lean-burn combustion strategies. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) has the potential to reduce this efficiency gap at low to moderate loads without the need for complex lean-exhaust aftertreatment systems. However, EGR dilution leads to reduced combustion stability and increased cycle-to-cycle variability. A promising technology that has the potential to achieve reliable operation under diluted conditions is the prechamber ignition (or turbulent jet ignition) which uses chemically active turbulent jets generated from combustion inside a prechamber to initiate, stabilize and accelerate combustion of the mixture inside the main chamber. The present work focusses on developing a RANS-based CFD approach to accurately reproduce in-cylinder phenomena in a stoichiometric NG prechamber-assisted heavy-duty engine without relying on complex combustion models that account for turbulence-chemistry interactions. This is necessary because reactive prechamber jets at high EGR dilution tend to extinguish while emerging into the main chamber, which is followed by a phase of re-ignition — a phenomenon that conventional G-equation or well-stirred reactor combustion models cannot reproduce. With addition of a damping multiplier to the well-stirred reactor model, the predictions are seen to show good agreement with experimental pressure evolution and combustion images acquired from a single cylinder Cummins N-14 optical diesel engine retrofitted with a prechamber ignition system. Model predictions of local heat release in the flame and temperature evolution inside the flame are used to investigate combustion dynamics in the prechamber and the main chamber. It is seen that the well-stirred reactor model with the inclusion of damping is able to reproduce the temporary reduction in heat release within the flame, which can be considered equivalent to quenching of jets, and the subsequent re-ignition of the flame inside the main chamber. The delay between quenching and re-ignition depends on the amount of dilution, as explained by an illustration of flame evolution in a Borghi diagram.

Prechamber ignition↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the Effects of Zero-Field Splitting and Magnetic Exchange in Dimeric Europium(II) Complexes

Related BAP [BAP = bis(acyl)phosphide] and Acac (Acac = β-diketonate) molecules perform as robust supports for both lanthanide and actinide metals. Here, a molecular bimetallic Eu 2+ complex was successfully targeted and isolated by employing sodium bis(mesitoyl)phosphide [Na( mes BAP)] in a salt metathesis with EuI 2 , producing [Eu( mes BAP) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 (et 2 o = metal-coordinated diethyl ether). The corresponding Acac-Eu 2+ complex was targeted using mes Acac– (1,3-dimesityl-1,3-propanedione), generating [Eu( mes Acac) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 . Both complexes were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, UV–vis, IR, and NMR spectroscopies, and variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility. [Eu( mes BAP) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 was persistent under anaerobic, anhydrous conditions, whereas the analogous [Eu( mes Acac) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 showed evidence of decomposition under identical conditions. Finally, variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility and magnetization studies of [Eu( mes BAP) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 and [Eu( mes Acac) 2 (et 2 o)] 2 were performed, resulting in similar magnetic exchange coupling values of J ex = –0.018 and –0.023 cm –1 and axial zero-field-splitting D values of –0.38 and –0.51 cm –1 , respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ab initio generalized Langevin equation

We introduce a machine learning–based approach called ab initio generalized Langevin equation (AIGLE) to model the dynamics of slow collective variables (CVs) in materials and molecules. In this scheme, the parameters are learned from atomistic simulations based on ab initio quantum mechanical models. Force field, memory kernel, and noise generator are constructed in the context of the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, under the constraint of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem. Combined with deep potential molecular dynamics and electronic density functional theory, this approach opens the way to multiscale modeling in a variety of situations. Here, we demonstrate this capability with a study of two mesoscale processes in crystalline lead titanate, namely the field-driven dynamics of a planar ferroelectric domain wall, and the dynamics of an extensive lattice of coarse-grained electric dipoles. In the first case, AIGLE extends the reach of ab initio simulations to a regime of noise-driven motions not accessible to molecular dynamics. In the second case, AIGLE deals with an extensive set of CVs by adopting a local approximation for the memory kernel and retaining only short-range noise correlations. The scheme is computationally more efficient than molecular dynamics by several orders of magnitude and mimics the microscopic dynamics at low frequencies where it reproduces accurately the dominant far-infrared absorption frequency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels

Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.

fuel design↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fluorogenic aptamers resolve the flexibility of RNA junctions using orientation-dependent FRET

To further understand the transcriptome, new tools capable of measuring folding, interactions, and localization of RNA are needed. Although Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) is an angle- and distance-dependent phenomenon, the majority of FRET measurements have been used to report distances, by assuming rotationally averaged donor–acceptor pairs. Angle-dependent FRET measurements have proven challenging for nucleic acids due to the difficulties in incorporating fluorophores rigidly into local substructures in a biocompatible manner. Fluorescence turn-on RNA aptamers are genetically encodable tags that appear to rigidly confine their cognate fluorophores, and thus have the potential to report angular-resolved FRET. In this work, we use the fluorescent aptamers Broccoli and Mango-III as donor and acceptor, respectively, to measure the angular dependence of FRET. Joining the two fluorescent aptamers by a helix of variable length allowed systematic rotation of the acceptor fluorophore relative to the donor. FRET oscillated in a sinusoidal manner as a function of helix length, consistent with simulated data generated from models of oriented fluorophores separated by an inflexible helix. Analysis of the orientation dependence of FRET allowed us to demonstrate structural rigidification of the NiCo riboswitch upon transition metal-ion binding. This application of fluorescence turn-on aptamers opens the way to improved structural interpretation of ensemble and single-molecule FRET measurements of RNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Ultrasound Image Augmentation and Ensemble Predictions to Prevent Machine-Learning Model Overfitting

Deep learning predictive models have the potential to simplify and automate medical imaging diagnostics by lowering the skill threshold for image interpretation. However, this requires predictive models that are generalized to handle subject variability as seen clinically. Here, we highlight methods to improve test accuracy of an image classifier model for shrapnel identification using tissue phantom image sets. Using a previously developed image classifier neural network—termed ShrapML—blind test accuracy was less than 70% and was variable depending on the training/test data setup, as determined by a leave one subject out (LOSO) holdout methodology. Introduction of affine transformations for image augmentation or MixUp methodologies to generate additional training sets improved model performance and overall accuracy improved to 75%. Further improvements were made by aggregating predictions across five LOSO holdouts. This was done by bagging confidences or predictions from all LOSOs or the top-3 LOSO confidence models for each image prediction. Top-3 LOSO confidence bagging performed best, with test accuracy improved to greater than 85% accuracy for two different blind tissue phantoms. This was confirmed by gradient-weighted class activation mapping to highlight that the image classifier was tracking shrapnel in the image sets. Overall, data augmentation and ensemble prediction approaches were suitable for creating more generalized predictive models for ultrasound image analysis, a critical step for real-time diagnostic deployment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Within and Among Fish Species Differences in Simulated Turbine Blade Strike Mortality: Limits on the Use of Surrogacy for Untested Species

Use of surrogacy remains a useful method for prioritizing research on representatives of at-risk groups of fishes, yet quantifiable evidence in support of its use is generally not available. Blade strike impact represents one of the most traumatic stressors experienced by fish during non-volitional movements through hydropower turbines. Here, we use data generated from laboratory trials on blade strike impact experiments to directly test use of surrogacy for salmonid and clupeid fishes. Results of logistic regression indicated that a -taxonomic (genus) variable was not a significant predictor of mortality among large rainbow trout and brook trout. Similar results were found for young-of-the-year shad species, but genus-level taxonomy was a significant predictor of mortality while species was not. Multivariate analysis of morphometric data showed that shad clustered together based on similarities in fish shape which was also closely associated with genus. Logistic regression including size as a major covariate suggested total fish length was not a significant predictor of mortality, yet dose–response data suggest differential susceptibility to lower strike velocities. We suggest that use of surrogacy among species is justifiable but should be avoided within a species since the effects of size remain unclear.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗