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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Discrete-Element and Material-Point Method (DEM and MPM) Based Solvers for Sustainable Technologies

We present the use of discrete element method (DEM) and material point method (MPM) in three relevant green technology applications that include biomass feedstock handling, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and high-pressure reverse osmosis. Our open-source DEM and MPM solvers are developed using performance portable grid and particle management library, AMReX, thus enabling superior performance on NVIDIA and AMD GPUs with > 100 million particles. Our DEM solver resolves the motion of individual particles in a granular system and includes a bonded sphere method for modeling non-spherical particles along with Hertzian and liquid bridge-based contact models. We simulate highly variable biomass feedstock flows in large-scale hoppers for biofuel production and electrode calendering in battery manufacturing using DEM. Our simulations predict flow blockage in large scale biomass hoppers and electrode microstructure variations, thus providing valuable information for biofuel and battery manufacturers, respectively. The second half of the talk will be on MPM and its application towards pore resolved simulations of reverse osmosis membranes under compressive loads. We present a validation study of our MPM simulations with membrane microscopy imaging thus providing useful insights on membrane stability under high pressure conditions. We also present a spectral stability analysis of using linear hat, quadratic and cubic spline basis in MPM indicating regions of numerical stability.

BIOMASS FUELS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Differential cross-section measurements of Higgs boson production in the H → τ + τ - decay channel in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Differential measurements of Higgs boson production in the τ-lepton-pair decay channel are presented in the gluon fusion, vector-boson fusion (VBF), VH and $t\overline{t}H$ associated production modes, with particular focus on the VBF production mode. The data used to perform the measurements correspond to 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. Two methods are used to perform the measurements: the Simplified Template Cross-Section (STXS) approach and an Unfolded Fiducial Differential measurement considering only the VBF phase space. For the STXS measurement, events are categorized by their production mode and kinematic properties such as the Higgs boson’s transverse momentum (${p}_{\textrm{T}}^{\textrm{H}}$ ), the number of jets produced in association with the Higgs boson, or the invariant mass of the two leading jets (mjj). For the VBF production mode, the ratio of the measured cross-section to the Standard Model prediction for m jj > 1.5 TeV and ${p}_{\textrm{T}}^{\textrm{H}}$ > 200 GeV (${p}_{\textrm{T}}^{\textrm{H}}$ < 200 GeV) is ${1.29}_{-0.34}^{+0.39}$ (${0.12}_{-0.33}^{+0.34}$ ). This is the first VBF measurement for the higher-${p}_{\textrm{T}}^{\textrm{H}}$ criteria, and the most precise for the lower-${p}_{\textrm{T}}^{\textrm{H}}$ criteria. The fiducial cross-section measurements, which only consider the kinematic properties of the event, are performed as functions of variables characterizing the VBF topology, such as the signed ΔΦ jj between the two leading jets. The measurements have a precision of 30%–50% and agree well with the Standard Model predictions. These results are interpreted in the SMEFT framework, and place the strongest constraints to date on the CP-odd Wilson coefficient ${c}_{H\overset{\sim }{W}}$ .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extracting and Generating PV Soiling Profiles for Analysis, Forecasting, and Cleaning Optimization

The identification and prediction of the daily soiling profiles of a photovoltaic site is essential to plan the optimal cleaning schedule. In this article, we analyze and propose various methods to extract and generate photovoltaic soiling profiles, in order to improve the analysis and the forecast of the losses. New soiling rate extraction methods are proposed to reflect the seasonal variability of the soiling rates and, for this reason, are found to identify the most convenient cleaning day with the highest accuracy for the investigated sites. Also, we present an approach that could be used to predict future soiling losses through the implementation of stochastic weather generation algorithms whose ability to identify in advance the best cleaning schedule is also successfully tested. The methods presented in this article can optimize the operation and maintenance schedule and could make it possible, in the future, to predict soiling losses through analysis based only on environmental parameters, such as rainfall and particulate matter, without the need of long-term soiling data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synthesis and Observation of Emergent Phenomena in Epitaxial Heusler Compound Heterostructures

The proposal was on the synthesis and observation of emergent phenomena in epitaxial Heusler compound heterostructures. The large range of properties and number of Heusler compounds opens up a wide number of potential compounds that will exhibit emergent phenomena. The similarity, large range of relatively inexpensive, large area, high crystal quality, III-V bulk substrates, lattice parameters and the ability to tune the lattice parameters through ternary or quaternary III-V compound semiconductor epitaxial growth, makes III-V semiconductors an ideal choice for substrates for epitaxial growth of Heusler compounds. A number of half Heusler compounds have been predicted to exhibit band inversion, making them topological and are therefore expected to exhibit spin-momentum locked topological surface states with linear dispersion. Others are predicted to be semimetals with Weyl points and others semiconducting and magnetic. During the course of this grant, emphasis has been on investigating Heusler compounds with emergent phenomena and demonstrating the ability to tune their properties through alloying and strain. We have grown toplogical semimetal (PtLuSb, PtMnBi), Weyl (Co 2 MnAl, Co 2 TiGe), half metal (PtMnSb, Co 2 MnSi, Co 2 MnAl x Si 1-x , Co2FeAl), and semiconducting (CoTiSb, NiTiSn) and tuned their properties through alloying and epitaxial strain. We also investigated the closely related materials of rare-earth monopnictide, some of which have also been predicted to be topological. During the attempts to grow the PtMnBi, it was discovered that Bi, another predicted topological material when ultrathin, could be grown epitaxially on InSb, results for which are also reported here. The main focus for this effort has been on using variable photon energy and spin-dependent angle resolved photoemission (ARPES) to determine bulk band structure and surface states of pristine epitaxial films grown on III-V semiconductor and MgO substrates and correlate results with theory and transport measurements. Theory has been critical to interpretation of experimental results and has been essential in guiding experiments. The research benefited from several strong collaborations between the PIs and the beamline scientists at the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) at Stanford and at the Max Lab at Lund University in Sweden. The strong experiment - theory collaboration between the PI’s groups, the Palmstrøm group at UCSB and the Janotti group at the University of Delaware, has been critical for interpreting the experimental ARPES and magnetotransport measurements results and making predictions to guide experiments. Weekly interactive Zoom meetings made this work well. A collaboration between the Palmstrøm group and Dr. Alexei Fedorov at the Advanced Light Source (ALS) resulted in significant modifications to his end chamber to accommodate the vacuum suitcase that was designed and constructed in the Palmstrøm group at UCSB. In collaboration with beamline scientists, Drs. Makoto Hashimoto and Donghui Lu at SLAC, Palmstrøm made modifications to the vacuum suitcase and developed special sample holders that allowed samples to be grown in the Palmstrøm MBE systems at UCSB and transported in the UHV vacuum suitcase to SLAC for ARPES measurements. The development of the vacuum suitcase was essential for this grant as it has allowed variable photon energies to be used to identify surface versus bulk states on samples that could not be capped and decapped using As- or Sb-capping layers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)

Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Inverter Loading Ratio on Energy Estimate Bias: Preprint

Subhourly effects, particularly variability in solar irradiance, can lead to underestimation of inverter clipping losses and overestimation of energy in hourly photovoltaic system performance models, particularly for systems with high inverter loading ratios. Direct simulation of this error can be complicated by factors such as the representation of spatial and temporal variability in hourly weather data and transient system conditions. In this work we take an alternative approach using real system power measurements to show that energy predictions from typical industry models suffer from a bias that increases with inverter loading ratio. We also show that this loading ratio-dependent bias is strongly correlated with an empirical subhourly inverter clipping bias derived from real power plant data. Finally, we show that this bias is not necessarily specific to any one model or weather dataset by recreating similar biases with alternatives of each.

clipping↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward accurate prediction of partial-penetration laser weld performance informed by three-dimensional characterization – Part II: μCT based finite element simulations

The mechanical behavior of partial-penetration laser welds exhibits significant variability in engineering quantities such as strength and apparent ductility. Understanding the root cause of this variability is important when using such welds in engineering designs. In Part II of this work, we develop finite element simulations with geometry derived from micro-computed tomography (μCT) scans of partial-penetration 304L stainless steel laser welds that were analyzed in Part I. We use these models to study the effects of the welds’ small-scale geometry, including porosity and weld depth variability, on the structural performance metrics of weld ductility and strength under quasi-static tensile loading. We show that this small-scale geometry is the primary cause of the observed variability for these mechanical response quantities. Additionally, we explore the sensitivity of model results to the conversion of the μCT data to discretized model geometry using different segmentation algorithms, and to the effect of small-scale geometry simplifications for pore shape and weld root texture. The modeling approach outlined and results of this work may be applicable to other material systems with small-scale geometric features and defects, such as additively manufactured materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Advancement in Weather and Water Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin: The SPLASH Campaign

Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These challenges are likely to intensify as the result of expanding population and climate-related changes that act to reduce runoff in areas of complex terrain. To better understand the physical processes that drive the transition of mountain precipitation to streamflow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites of environmental sensors throughout the East River watershed of Colorado as part of the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH). This includes surface-based sensors over a network of five different observing sites, airborne platforms, and sophisticated remote sensors to provide detailed information on spatiotemporal variability of key parameters. With a 2-yr deployment, these sensors offer detailed insight into precipitation, the lower atmosphere, and the surface, and support the development of datasets targeting improved prediction of weather and water. Initial datasets have been published and are laying a foundation for improved characterization of physical processes and their interactions driving mountain hydrology, evaluation and improvement of numerical prediction tools, and educational activities. SPLASH observations contain a depth and breadth of information that enables a variety of atmospheric and hydrological science analyses over the coming years that leverage collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and stakeholders, including industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correcting for filter-based aerosol light absorption biases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site using photoacoustic measurements and machine learning

Abstract. Measurement of light absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is vital for assessing direct aerosol radiative forcing, which affects local and global climate. Low-cost and easy-to-operate filter-based instruments, such as the Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP), that collect aerosols on a filter and measure light attenuation through the filter are widely used to infer aerosol light absorption. However, filter-based absorption measurements are subject to artifacts that are difficult to quantify. These artifacts are associated with the presence of the filter medium and the complex interactions between the filter fibers and accumulated aerosols. Various correction algorithms have been introduced to correct for the filter-based absorption coefficient measurements toward predicting the particle-phase absorption coefficient (Babs). However, the inability of these algorithms to incorporate into their formulations the complex matrix of influencing parameters such as particle asymmetry parameter, particle size, and particle penetration depth results in prediction of particle-phase absorption coefficients with relatively low accuracy. The analytical forms of corrections also suffer from a lack of universal applicability: different corrections are required for rural and urban sites across the world. In this study, we analyzed and compared 3 months of high-time-resolution ambient aerosol absorption data collected synchronously using a three-wavelength photoacoustic absorption spectrometer (PASS) and PSAP. Both instruments were operated on the same sampling inlet at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) user facility in Oklahoma. We implemented the two most commonly used analytical correction algorithms, namely, Virkkula (2010) and the average of Virkkula (2010) and Ogren (2010)–Bond et al. (1999) as well as a random forest regression (RFR) machine learning algorithm to predict Babs values from the PSAP's filter-based measurements. The predicted Babs was compared against the reference Babs measured by the PASS. The RFR algorithm performed the best by yielding the lowest root mean square error of prediction. The algorithm was trained using input datasets from the PSAP (transmission and uncorrected absorption coefficient), a co-located nephelometer (scattering coefficients), and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (mass concentration of non-refractory aerosol particles). A revised form of the Virkkula (2010) algorithm suitable for the SGP site has been proposed; however, its performance yields approximately 2-fold errors when compared to the RFR algorithm. To generalize the accuracy and applicability of our proposed RFR algorithm, we trained and tested it on a dataset of laboratory measurements of combustion aerosols. Input variables to the algorithm included the aerosol number size distribution from the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer, absorption coefficients from the filter-based Tricolor Absorption Photometer, and scattering coefficients from a multiwavelength nephelometer. The RFR algorithm predicted Babs values within 5 % of the reference Babs measured by the multiwavelength PASS during the laboratory experiments. Thus, we show that machine learning approaches offer a promising path to correct for biases in long-term filter-based absorption datasets and accurately quantify their variability and trends needed for robust radiative forcing determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale MD to Predict Epitope Regions in HIV Env [Slides]

Highly dense carbohydrates located on the surface of the HIV Env protein play a key role in immune evasion. Such evolutionary adaptation hampers any attempt to obtain a full mechanistic understanding of the role played by the glycans in protecting the virus against an effective immune response. Moreover, and due to their chemical variability, an accurate molecular understanding of the so called “glycan shield” is still limited by the lack of effective resolution of state-of-the-art experimental technics. Here, we have used extensive computational modelling in order to fill this gap, addressing the presence of a large glycan variability as observed experimentally. Based on an automated pipeline, we were able to assemble, set-up and simulate via Molecular dynamics hundreds of different glycosylated Env variants at nearly atomic resolution, recapitulating the glycosylation distributions observed experimentally. Results from these simulations were subjected to machine learning and very accurate prediction of simulation derived glycan shielding areas of each glycan as a function of static sequence features. Such predictive models of per-glycan shielding, incorporating both glycan dynamics and heterogeneity, were used to develop a novel sequence-based glycan shield mapping strategy. Parallel to these studies, we also developed an accurate machine learning approach to predict glycan heterogeneity data using sequence features and found good prediction accuracy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vickers hardness prediction from machine learning methods

Abstract The search for new superhard materials is of great interest for extreme industrial applications. However, the theoretical prediction of hardness is still a challenge for the scientific community, given the difficulty of modeling plastic behavior of solids. Different hardness models have been proposed over the years. Still, they are either too complicated to use, inaccurate when extrapolating to a wide variety of solids or require coding knowledge. In this investigation, we built a successful machine learning model that implements Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) to predict hardness and uses the mechanical properties of a solid (bulk modulus, shear modulus, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio) as input variables. The model was trained with an experimental Vickers hardness database of 143 materials, assuring various kinds of compounds. The input properties were calculated from the theoretical elastic tensor. The Materials Project’s database was explored to search for new superhard materials, and our results are in good agreement with the experimental data available. Other alternative models to compute hardness from mechanical properties are also discussed in this work. Our results are available in a free-access easy to use online application to be further used in future studies of new materials at www.hardnesscalculator.com .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗