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DOE OSTI2020

Orbital-selective Dirac fermions and extremely flat bands in frustrated kagome-lattice metal CoSn

Layered kagome-lattice 3d transition metals are emerging as an exciting platform to explore the frustrated lattice geometry and quantum topology. However, the typical kagome electronic bands, characterized by sets of the Dirac-like band capped by a phase-destructive flat band, have not been clearly observed, and their orbital physics are even less well investigated. Here, we present close-to-textbook kagome bands with orbital differentiation physics in CoSn, which can be well described by a minimal tight-binding model with single-orbital hopping in Co kagome lattice. The capping flat bands with bandwidth less than 0.2 eV run through the whole Brillouin zone, especially the bandwidth of the flat band of out-of-plane orbitals is less than 0.02 eV along Γ-M. The energy gap induced by spin-orbit interaction at the Dirac cone of out-of-plane orbitals is much smaller than that of in-plane orbitals, suggesting orbital-selective character of the Dirac fermions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

From Well Log to Formation Model: A Novel Laboratory Calibrated Methodology with Demonstration

This work demonstrates how the characterization and modeling of both elastic and creep properties are essential to describe zones in layered rock formations as either low-stress targets for stimulation or high-stress barriers to fracture growth. Prediction of fracture height is critical for designing stimulation operations in oil and gas wells. Ideally, fractures are placed in target zones which will produce hydrocarbons and should not propagate into zones expected to be unproductive or to produce unwanted fluids such as water which in turn must be treated and/or disposed. The essential task in designing stimulation plans is predicting which zones have low horizontal stresses and which will be high-stress barriers to fracture growth. Despite this importance, there are gaps in current knowledge and a complete workflow from laboratory characterization to a finite element model which includes time dependent rock deformation is required. While the research and methodology presented here also have application to CO 2or hydrogen storage, wastewater injection, and geothermal applications, the focus will be on hydrocarbon extraction. This thesis presents the results of a characterization-to-prediction workflow for the Caney shale, which is an emerging hydrocarbon resource in Oklahoma, USA. It begins with an investigation to enable critical evaluation of the Caney zonation into nominally “brittle” and “ductile” zones based on properties observed from well logs. It shows none of the zones are consistently “brittle” or “ductile” mechanical behavior based on the variety of definitions of these terms. However, the nominally ductile zones are weaker and more prone to creep. A laboratory investigation of samples including strength, elastic, and creep properties, is then used in a finite element model of stress evolution. The model includes both elastic deformation and viscoplastic creep. Results predict the least creep-prone layers to have the lowest horizontal stresses, therefore comprising hydraulic fracturing targets. The most creep-prone layers attain a horizontal stress similar to the vertical stress and therefore are predicted to be high stress barriers to hydraulic fracture stimulation. In addition to defining stimulation target intervals, the model shows how as tectonic strain rate increases, there is a transition from creep-dominated stresses to stresses dominated by elasticity.

Benge, Margaret↗

DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Simulations of Orographic Convection across Multiple Gray Zones

Idealized simulations are used to determine the sensitivity of moist orographic convection to horizontal grid spacing Δ h . In simulated mechanically (MECH) and thermally (THERM) forced convection over an isolated ridge, Δ h is varied systematically over both the deep-convection (Δ h ~ 10 –1 km) and turbulence (Δ h ~ 1 km–100 m) gray zones. To aid physical interpretation, a new parcel-based bulk entrainment/detrainment diagnosis for horizontally heterogeneous flows is developed. Within the deep-convection gray zone, the Δ h sensitivity is dominated by differences in parameterized versus explicit convection; the former initiates convection too far upstream of the ridge (MECH) and too early in the diurnal heating cycle (THERM). These errors stem in part from a large underprediction of parameterized entrainment and detrainment. Within the turbulence gray zone, sensitivities to Δh arise from the representation of both subcloud- and cloud-layer turbulence. As Δ h is decreased, MECH exhibits stronger cloud-layer entrainment to enhance the convective mass flux M co , while THERM exhibits stronger detrainment to suppress Mco and delay convection initiation. The latter is reinforced by increased subcloud turbulence at smaller Δ h , which leads to drying and diffusion of the central updraft responsible for initiating moist convection. Numerical convergence to a robust solution occurs only in THERM, which develops a fully turbulent flow with a resolved inertial subrange (for Δ h ≤ 250 m). In MECH, by contrast, turbulent transition occurs within the orographic cloud, the details of which depend on both physical location and Δ h .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture Design Using Force-on-Force Cyber-Physical Modeling

Currently, nuclear power plant physical security systems are highly dependent on air-gaps as a protective measure against cyber-threats. Cyber-physical threats become more likely as advanced cyber-threat capabilities to jump air-gaps transition into common use. Defending against the emerging threat of cyber-enabled physical intrusions is poorly understood. The consequence of these cyber-physical attacks has no quantitative analysis method to inform risk-informed, performance-based cybersecurity approaches. By modifying the physical security simulation tool Dante, cyber-physical threat consequence was able to be analyzed on a notional facility. The results of this analysis are used to design a Defensive Cybersecurity Architecture (DCSA) for the physical security system to produce example resilience measures for this notional facility. A DCSA defines security levels to provide a graded approach for defending plant functions, and security zones for trusted communication between systems. This approach can be applied to real world systems to produce physical protection systems and response measures that are resilient to cyber-physical threats.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (Ts); snowball (Ts ≤ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≤ Ts ≤ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≤ Ts ≤ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (Ts ≥ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having Ts ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Eric T Wolf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Results from Dragonfly Testing/Analysis as we head to PDR

Dragonfly is a relocatable lander mission to Saturn's moon Titan4, which as well as being a target of out-standing astrobiological interest as an organic-rich Ocean World, has the combination of low gravity (1/7 that of Earth) and a thick atmosphere (4x the density of Earth), making it an environment uniquely suitable for flight. Thus, the Dragonfly lander (similar in size to the Curiosity Mars rover) can take off using lift from a set of eight rotors and fly to a new landing site several kilometers away. The ability to perform such flights, lasting approximately 30 minutes, every month or so on Titan brings unprecedented mobility to planetary exploration, on a world known to have a diverse land-scape of dunes, craters and other features. Dragonfly is planned to launch in 2027, and following a nearly seven year interplanetary cruise would arrive at Titan by 2034. Due to the large scale height of the Titan atmosphere, Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) will be prolonged affair, taking nearly two hours to reach the surface. The ballistic entry environments that Dragonfly will be subjected to are fairly similar to that experienced by recent Mars missions; peak heating on the aeroshell will be about 300 W/sq.cm and peak deceleration is about 10g’s. Following the five minute entry segment, much of the remaining time is spent descending on the drogue and main para-chutes, which carry the dual role of decelerating the spacecraft and stabilizing the system during the long descent. While on one hand, this leisurely EDL sequence affords a relaxed timeline and plenty of time for event staging, it also provides ample opportunity for small disturbances to grow into potential flight safety risks, adding emphasis to the need for careful modeling, simulation and testing of key dynamic events. About two hours after entering the atmosphere, the nearly one metric ton rotocraft will be lowered approximately one meter out of the backshell (the ‘pose’ maneuver) to expose all eight rotors. The rotors will then be used to arrest any residual spin rate and prepare the system for transition to powered flight. Once despin is complete and the lander reaches a target altitude of 1.2 km above the surface (as verified by on-board lidar), the lander will be released and free fall for approximately one second before beginning controlled free flight. This entire “preparation for powered flight” process takes place over several minutes while the system is subject to the dynamic environment produced by so-called “wrist-mode” oscillations as the lander and backshell swing on the main parachute. Once in free flight, the lander will engage on-board terrain relative navigation to locate and navigate to a safe landing zone in the Shangri-La dune field south of Selk crater. Communication during this sequence will be limited to a series of direct-to-Earth X-band tones signalling key events and providing forensic information. Once on the ground, the lander will begin to send additional information, including data collected during this EDL sequence by the on-board Dragonfly Entry Aerosciences Measurements (DrEAM) instrumentation suite. This presentation will walk through the entry to first landing timeline in more detail, with a focus on recent analysis and testing results that inform system performance, margins and residual risk estimation.

Dragonfly↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synergies Between the Kepler, K2 and TESS Missions with the PLATO Mission (Revised)

Two transit survey missions will have been flown by NASA prior to the launch of ESA's PLATO Mission in 2026, laying the groundwork for exoplanet discovery via the transit method. The Kepler Mission, which launched in 2009, collected data on its 100+ square degree field of view for four years before failure of a reaction wheel ended its primary mission. The results from Kepler include 2300+ confirmed or validated exoplanets, 2200+ planetary candidates, 2100+ eclipsing binaries. Kepler also revolutionized the field of asteroseismology by measuring the pressure mode oscillations of over 15000 solar-like stars spanning the lifecycle of such stars from hydrogen-burning dwarfs to helium-burning red giants. The re-purposed Kepler Mission, dubbed K2, continues to observe fields of view in and near the ecliptic plane for 80 days each, significantly broadening the scope of the astrophysical investigations as well as discovering an additional 156 exoplanets to date. The TESS mission will launch in 2017 to conduct an all-sky survey for small exoplanets orbiting stars 10X closer and 100X brighter than Kepler exoplanet host stars, allowing for far greater follow-up and characterization of their masses as well as their sizes for at least 50 small planets. Future assets such as James Webb Space Telescope, and ground-based assets such as ESOs Very Large Telescope (VLT) array, the Exremely Large Telescope (ELT), and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) will be able to characterize the atmospheric composition and properties of these small planets. TESS will observe each 24 X 96 field of view for 30 days and thereby cover first the southern and then the northern hemisphere over 13 pointings during each year of the primary mission. The pole-most camera will observe the James Webb continuous viewing zone for one year in each hemisphere, permitting much longer period planets to be detected in this region. The PLATO mission will seek to detect habitable Earth-like planets with an instrument composed of 26 small telescopes in several 2232 square deg FOVs with a range of observation durations over a mission lifetime of up to eight years. This paper summarizes the findings of the KeplerK2 missions, previews the likely results from the TESS mission, and explores the lessons learned and to be learned from these prior missions that can be incorporated into the observation and data reduction strategy for the PLATO Mission so as to maximize the science return.

exoplanet detection↗

DOE OSTI2024

CFD unified approach under Eulerian–Lagrangian framework for methanol and gasoline direct injection sprays in evaporative and flash boiling conditions

Innovative synthetic fuels for advanced propulsion systems, such as methanol and ammonia, and synthetic blended fuels (E00, E10, and E30), known for their high volatility, are often injected directly into combustion chambers. It follows that Eulerian–Lagrangian spray models need to accurately capture the spray collapse as a consequence of flash boiling onset and be capable of proficiently handling the preferential evaporation of multi-component fuels in evaporative scenarios. So, we performed the assessment of an Eulerian–Lagrangian CFD code for simulating methanol and E00 gasoline blend sprays in both early and late injection conditions involving flash boiling conditions and preferential evaporation. The adoption of an effervescent breakup model and of a non-equilibrium phase transition model for the discrete phase allows the adoption of a setup that is almost completely free from specific constant tuning, especially for what concerns the breakup model. We validated the simulations using experimental PLV maps of methanol and E00 sprays issued from the ECN Spray M injector. The results highlight a significantly different morphology of the methanol spray compared to the E00 one under late injection conditions. Under stratified combustion, low-volatile fuels are likely to be ignited first, and the flame propagates toward the high-volatile fuels. In conclusion, the spray collapse was also correctly reproduced, inducing the presence of a low-pressure zone and modifying the spray morphology.

E00↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detecting the full photoemission cone from laser-based ARPES experiments by leveraging deflector technology

Angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) provides a direct access to the electronic band structure of solid and molecular systems. The momentum range accessible by this technique depends directly on the photon energy used, and low-photon-energy sources are insufficient to photoemit electrons over the full Brillouin zone of most quantum materials. In addition, while electrons are emitted over a 2π solid angle, conventional hemispherical analyzers only collect a small subset of those electrons. A previous work [Gauthier et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 92, 123907 (2021)] demonstrated that electrons emitted over a larger field-of-view can be acquired in one fixed configuration by accelerating them toward the analyzer with a bias voltage. Here, in this study, we extend this work by leveraging the deflector technology of novel ARPES hemispherical analyzers. We demonstrate the ability to detect all 2π photoemitted electrons in a fixed configuration for various materials, such as gold, cuprates, and transition-metal dichalcogenides. This approach is especially advantageous for time-resolved ARPES, as electron dynamics over a large momentum range can be accessed with identical measurement conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1992

Extensive lava flow fields on Venus: Preliminary investigation of source elevation and regional slope variations

Large-volume lava flow fields have been identified on Venus, the most areally extensive of which are known as fluctus and have been subdivided into six morphologic types. Sheetlike flow fields (Type 1) lack the numerous, closely spaced, discrete lava flow lobes that characterize digitate flow fields. Transitional flow fields (Type 2) are similar to sheetlike flow fields but contain one or more broad flow lobes. Digitate flow fields are divided further into divergent (Types 3-5) and subparallel (Type 6) classes on the basis of variations in the amount of downstream flow divergence. As a result of our previous analysis of the detailed morphology, stratigraphy, and tectonic associations of Mylitta Fluctus, we have formulated a number of questions to apply to all large flow fields on Venus. In particular, we would like to address the following: (1) eruption conditions and style of flow emplacement (effusion rate, eruption duration), (2) the nature of magma storage zones (presence of neutral buoyancy zones, deep or shallow crustal magma chambers), (3) the origin of melt and possible link to mantle plumes, and (4) the importance of large flow fields in plains evolution. To answer these questions we have begun to examine variations in flow field dimension and morphology; the distribution of large flow fields in terms of elevation above the mean planetary radius; links to regional tectonic or volcanic structures (e.g., associations with large shield edifices, coronae, or rift zones); statigraphic relationships between large flow fields, volcanic plains, shields, and coronae; and various models of flow emplacement in order to estimate eruption parameters. In this particular study, we have examined the proximal elevations and topographic slopes of 16 of the most distinctive flow fields that represent each of the 6 morphologic types.

Magee-Roberts, K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Solar convection zone dynamics and rotation

Helioseismology reveals that there appears to be a discrepancy between the differential rotation profile with the radius and latitude deduced from the inversion of the observed frequency splitting of p-modes and the rotation profile anticipated from various global simulations of convection in rotating shells. The problem may be caused by deductions in numerical simulations of convection which was considered near laminar flows. A high performance computing offers paths for studying the properties of such astrophysical turbulence. A range of approaches to study the basic dynamics of convection is reviewed, along with its ability to redistribute angular momentum in rotating systems. The results of recent three-dimensional simulations of turbulent compressible convection constrained by the effects of rotation are described for the cases in spherical shells and local area f-planes. The turbulence possesses intense vortex tubes with intricate interactions and instabilities. The theoretical studies reveal that the transition to turbulent states has contributed to significant changes in flow symmetries and transports, and that such a turbulent convection can drive substantial mean flows, which are distinctly different from those in which the convection is dominantly laminar.

Toomre, Juri↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Detection of Habitable Trojan Planets in the Kepler Circumbinary Systems

We present the results of a study of the prospect of detecting habitable Trojan planets in the Kepler Habitable Zone circumbinary planetary systems (Kepler-16, -47, -453, -1647, and -1661). We integrated the orbits of 10,000 separate N-body systems (N = 4, 6), each with a one Earth-mass body in a randomly selected orbit near the L {sub 4} and L {sub 5} Lagrangian points of the host HZ circumbinary planet. We find that stable Trojan planets are restricted to a narrow range of semimajor axes in all five systems and limited to small eccentricities in Kepler-16, -47, and -1661. To assess the prospect of the detection of these habitable Trojan planets, we calculated the amplitudes of the variations they cause in the transit timing of their host bodies. Results show that the mean amplitudes of the transit timing variations (TTVs) correlate with the mass of the transiting planet and range from 70 minutes for Kepler-16b to 390 minutes for Kepler-47c. Our analysis indicates that the TTVs of the circumbinary planets caused by these Trojan bodies fall within the detectable range of timing precision obtained from the Kepler telescope’s long-cadence data. The latter points to Kepler data as a viable source to search for habitable Trojan planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling gas, hydrates, and slope stability on the U.S. Atlantic margin during Pleistocene glacial cycles

Changes in temperature and sea level can cause dissociation of methane hydrates in shallow marine sediments, leading to seafloor destabilization. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin, there exists a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous recorded occurrences of gas seeps. Several studies have linked slope failure in the region to gas seepage and hydrate dissociation driven by glacial-interglacial transitions, but this linkage has not been quantitatively demonstrated. Along the shelf edge, in an area where shallow methane gas seeps have been identified, we modeled methane gas and hydrate formation using a one-dimensional fluid flow model. Methane gas formation was modeled over the last 120,000 years to simulate a glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we ran this model at 16,044 individual locations in the region between 29° N – 45° N and 82° W – 66° W at a resolution of 1 x 1 arcminutes, focusing specifically on water depths between 200 and 1000 m that bracket the seafloor outcrop of the base of the hydrate stability zone. Using historic temperature and pressure records from the last 120,000 years, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause sediment failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur.

Hydrate dissociation↗

NASA NTRS2020

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. I. Validation of the TOI-700 System

We present the discovery and validation of a three-planet system orbiting the nearby (31.1 pc) M2 dwarf star TOI-700 (TIC 150428135). TOI-700 lies in the TESS continuous viewing zone in the Southern Ecliptic Hemisphere; observations spanning 11 sectors reveal three planets with radii ranging from 1 R⊕ to 2.6 R⊕ and orbital periods ranging from 9.98 to 37.43 days. Ground-based follow-up combined with diagnostic vetting and validation tests enables us to rule out common astrophysical false-positive scenarios and validate the system of planets. The outermost planet, TOI-700 d, has a radius of 1.19 ± 0.11 R⊕ and resides within a conservative estimate of the host star's habitable zone, where it receives a flux from its star that is approximately 86% of Earth's insolation. In contrast to some other low-mass stars that host Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones, TOI-700 exhibits low levels of stellar activity, presenting a valuable opportunity to study potentially rocky planets over a wide range of conditions affecting atmospheric escape. While atmospheric characterization of TOI-700 d with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be challenging, the larger sub-Neptune, TOI-700 c (R = 2.63 R⊕), will be an excellent target for JWST and future space-based observatories. TESS is scheduled to once again observe the Southern Hemisphere, and it will monitor TOI-700 for an additional 11 sectors in its extended mission. These observations should allow further constraints on the known planet parameters and searches for additional planets and transit timing variations in the system.

Emily A. Gilbert↗

DOE OSTI2024

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗