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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Correlation of ozone loss with the presence of volcanic aerosols

Statistically significant reductions of ozone compared to a climatological profile have been measured above the Observatoire de Haute Provence (OHP) in Southern France (43.9 deg N, 5.7 deg E) during the months of July and August, 1992. Lidar profiles of ozone, temperature and aerosols were recorded on 25 separate nights during that time. The change in the ozone profile is correlated with the presence of volcanic aerosols from the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The total ozone loss amounts to approximately a 10% reduction in the total ozone column over OHP.

Mcgee, Thomas J.↗

Thermal Analysis and Testing of Fastrac Gas Generator Design

The Fastrac Engine is being developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to help meet the goal of substantially reducing the cost of access to space. This engine relies on a simple gas-generator cycle, which burns a small amount of RP-1 and oxygen to provide gas to drive the turbine and then exhausts the spent fuel. The Fastrac program envisions a combination of analysis, design and hot-fire evaluation testing. This paper provides the supporting thermal analysis of the gas generator design. In order to ensure that the design objectives were met, the evaluation tests have started on a component level and a total of 15 tests of different durations were completed to date at MSFC. The correlated thermal model results will also be compared against hot-fire thermocouple data gathered.

Nguyen, H.↗

Characterization of Laptop Fires in Spacecraft

An accidental fire involving the Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) battery in a laptop computer is one of the most likely fire scenarios on-board a spacecraft. These fires can occur from a defect in the battery that worsens with time, over-charging the battery and leading to failure or accidental damage caused by thermal runaway. While this is a relatively likely fire scenario, very little is known about the how a laptop computer fire would impact a sealed spacecraft. The heat release would likely cause a pressure rise, possibly exceeding the pressure limit of the vehicle and causing a relief valve to open. The combustion products from the fire could pose a short-term and long-term health hazard to the crew and the fire itself could cause injury to the crew and damage to the spacecraft. Despite the hazard posed by a laptop fire, there is little quantitative data on the fire size, heat release and toxic product formation. This paper presents the results of initial attempts to quantify the fire resulting from a failed laptop fire tested at the NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). The data from the testing is useful to attempt to determine the fire size and characteristics such as maximum heat release rate, total heat release, maximum temperatures and fire duration are determined. Using existing models and correlations for fires, the measured fire characteristics are extrapolated to laptop fires on a vehicle the approximate size of the Orion spacecraft.

Padilla, Rosa E.↗

Gaining the most utility from our geospace observational system: Network analysis of total electron content as a means to understand space weather to the point of prediction

We present the first network analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle dependent, high-latitude, hemispheric-specific total electron content (TEC) data. We examine network parameters to describe spatio-temporal correlations in the TEC data for January 2016. We find that significant network structure exists distinguishing the dayside and nightside ionosphere, and specific features in the high-latitudes (cusp/ionospheric footpoints of magnetospheric boundary layers, polar cap, and auroral zone), and that these features vary with IMF clock angle. In this brief summary paper, we provide proof of concept results and identify important areas of future research, providing a basis for the discussion of network analysis and machine learning approaches for space weather applications.

Malik, Nishant↗

La Soufriere Volcanic Eruptions Launched Gravity Waves Into Space

Atmospheric gravity waves can be excited by explosive volcanic eruptions and may reach Earth's upper atmosphere. In this study, we report on mesoscale concentric gravity waves observed in the mesopause airglow layer following the La Soufriere volcano eruption in April 2021. A large ash plume observed by the spaceborne Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer instrument on April 10 reached ∼20 km. Temporal evolution of the volcanic ash plume was provided by the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. Nightglow gravity waves were observed by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day Night Band. These waves had horizontal wavelengths of ∼25–40 km, and took about a half-to-1 hr to travel from the tropopause to the mesopause. Some concentric ionospheric disturbance signatures are also seen in Global Navigation Satellite System-total electron content maps. We found the launch of gravity waves to be highly correlated with the elevated ash plume from explosive eruptions.

gravity waves↗

A Monte Carlo-Based Approach to Assessing Annual Energy Production and Uncertainty

The industry standard approach to assessing annual energy production (AEP) uncertainty can be limited because of the assumption of uncorrelated uncertainty categories and subjectivity in calculations. A Monte Carlo approach to uncertainty quantification can largely overcome these limitations and provide a more robust assessment of energy uncertainty. Here, we demonstrate the Monte Carlo approach in the context of AEP estimation using operational data. Monthly net energy production for all reporting wind power plants in the United States was taken from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database. Atmospheric data from three reanalysis products were also considered. After filtering for wind plants that had at least 8 months of data and moderate-to-strong correlation with all three reanalysis products (R2 > 0.6), we assessed 472 wind power plants total.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Direct Study of Changes in Catalyst Structure-Kinetic Properties During Redox Transitions

The Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) pulse response methodology is a transient technique that provides the time resolution needed to deconvolve reaction steps from the complex networks typical in industrial catalytic processes. Traditionally, TAP measurements observe gas phase dynamics at the reactor exit but lack direct measurements of changes in the catalyst itself. Recently, a new operando technique was developed that couples gas phase transients to dynamic changes in metal centers with the precise TAP methodology for nanomole titration. Using an industrial CrOx/Al2O3 catalyst used for propane dehydrogenation, we demonstrate the capabilities of this unique device to reveal key catalytic processes: 1) total propane oxidation not associated with chromia centers, 2) reduction of Cr6+ to Cr3+ correlated with selective product formation, and 3) subsequent carbon accumulation. By utilizing incremental pulsing in a diffusion-only transport regime, the spectrokinetic device allows us to resolve detailed changes in catalyst structure, composition, and kinetic function that are otherwise indistinguishable in conventional operando devices. The unification of the TAP methodology with time-resolved spectroscopic measurements offers new and unique insights into the complex kinetic phenomena regulated by solid catalyst surfaces.

03 - NATURAL GAS↗

Insight into the Physical and Dynamical Processes that Control Rapid Increases in Total Flash Rate

Rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") have been observed for many decades. Lightning jumps have been well correlated to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The main focus of lightning jump work has been on the development of lightning algorithms to be used in real‐time assessment of storm intensity. However, in these studies it is typically assumed that the updraft "increases" without direct measurements of the vertical motion, or specification of which updraft characteristic actually increases (e.g., average speed, maximum speed, or convective updraft volume). Therefore, an end‐to‐end physical and dynamical basis for coupling rapid increases in total flash rate to increases in updraft speed and volume must be understood in order to ultimately relate lightning occurrence to severe storm metrics. Herein, we use polarimetric, multi‐Doppler, and lightning mapping array measurements to provide physical context as to why rapid increases in total lightning are closely tied to severe and hazardous weather.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Gu, Guojun↗

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

WE-FG-202-05: Quantification of Bone Flare On [F-18] NaF PET/CT in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Bone flare has been observed on Tc-99m bone scans during early assessment in metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) patients receiving select androgen-signaling pathway (AR) targeted treatments, including CYP17-inhibitor Abiraterone. This study investigates the appearance and potential clinical impact of bone flare in mCRPC patients receiving CYP17-inhibitors using {sup 18}F-NaF PET/CT. Methods: Twenty-three mCRPC patients being treated with CYP17-inhibitors received NaF PET/CT scans at baseline, week 6, and week 12 of treatment. Individual lesions were identified using a SUV>15 threshold within skeletal regions and articulated bone registration was used to track lesions between scans. Standard SUV metrics were extracted globally for each patient (pSUV) and for each individual lesion (iSUV). Differences in metrics across time-points were compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted between global metrics and progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Nineteen patients (83%) showed increasing NaF PET global metrics at week 6, with pSUV{sub total} reflecting consensus change across other global metrics with median increase +33% (range +2 to 205%). Of these patients, 14 showed subsequent decrease in pSUV{sub total}, with a median of −17% (range −76 to −1%), indicating flare phenomenon. Increasing pSUV{sub mean} at week 6 correlated with extended clinical PFS (HR = 0.58, p=0.02). New lesions did not account for the initial increase in global NaF metrics. Lesion-level analysis reveals 316 lesions in the 14 patients exhibiting global flare. On average, 75% (sd: 22%) of lesions follow global trends with iSUV{sub total} increasing at week 6 and 65% (sd: 17%) showing iSUV{sub total} decrease at week 12. Conclusion: Bone flare was detected on NaF PET/CT in the first 6 weeks of treatment for mCRPC patients receiving CYP17-inhibitors, subsiding by week 12. Characterization provided in this study suggests prolonged PFS in patients showing bone flare early in select AR-directed treatments. Prostate Cancer Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Provitamin A biofortification of cassava enhances shelf life but reduces dry matter content of storage roots due to altered carbon partitioning into starch

Storage roots of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), a major subsistence crop of sub-Saharan Africa, are calorie rich but deficient in essential micronutrients, including provitamin A bcarotene. In this study, b-carotene concentrations in cassava storage roots were enhanced by coexpression of transgenes for deoxy-D-xylulose-5-phosphate synthase (DXS) and bacterial phytoene synthase (crtB), mediated by the patatin-type 1 promoter. Storage roots harvested from field-grown plants accumulated carotenoids to ≤50 lg/g DW, 15- to 20-fold increases relative to roots from nontransgenic plants. Approximately 85%–90% of these carotenoids accumulated as all-trans-b-carotene, the most nutritionally efficacious carotenoid. b-Caroteneaccumulating storage roots displayed delayed onset of postharvest physiological deterioration, a major constraint limiting utilization of cassava products. Large metabolite changes were detected in b-carotene-enhanced storage roots. Most significantly, an inverse correlation was observed between b-carotene and dry matter content, with reductions of 50%–60% of dry matter content in the highest carotenoid-accumulating storage roots of different cultivars. Further analysis confirmed a concomitant reduction in starch content and increased levels of total fatty acids, triacylglycerols, soluble sugars and abscisic acid. Potato engineered to co-express DXS and crtB displayed a similar correlation between b-carotene accumulation, reduced dry matter and starch content and elevated oil and soluble sugars in tubers. Transcriptome analyses revealed a reduced expression of genes involved in starch biosynthesis including ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase genes in transgenic, carotene-accumulating cassava roots relative to nontransgenic roots. These findings highlight unintended metabolic consequences of provitamin A biofortification of starch-rich organs and point to strategies for redirecting metabolic flux to restore starch production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrical Conductivity through a Single Atomic Step Measured with the Proximity-Induced Superconducting Pair Correlation

Local disordered nanostructures in an atomically thick metallic layer on a semiconducting substrate play significant and decisive roles in transport properties of two-dimensional (2D) conductive systems. We measured the electrical conductivity through a step of monoatomic height in a truly microscopic manner by using as a signal the superconducting pair correlation induced by the proximity effect. The transport property across a step of a one-monolayer Pb surface metallic phase, formed on a Si(111) substrate, was evaluated by inducing the pair correlation around the local defect and measuring its response, i.e., the reduced density of states at the Fermi energy using scanning tunneling microscopy. We found that the step resistance has a significant contribution to the total resistance on a nominally flat surface. Our study also revealed that steps in the 2D metallic layer terminate the propagation of the pair correlation. Furthermore, superconductivity is enhanced between the first surface step and the superconductor–normal-metal interface by reflectionless tunneling when the step is located within a coherence length.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Frequency distributions and correlations of solar X-ray flare parameters

Frequency distributions of flare parameters are determined from over 12,000 solar flares. The flare duration, the peak counting rate, the peak hard X-ray flux, the total energy in electrons, and the peak energy flux in electrons are among the parameters studied. Linear regression fits, as well as the slopes of the frequency distributions, are used to determine the correlations between these parameters. The relationship between the variations of the frequency distributions and the solar activity cycle is also investigated. Theoretical models for the frequency distribution of flare parameters are dependent on the probability of flaring and the temporal evolution of the flare energy build-up. The results of this study are consistent with stochastic flaring and exponential energy build-up. The average build-up time constant is found to be 0.5 times the mean time between flares.

Crosby, Norma B.↗

Application of selected methods of remote sensing for detecting carbonaceous water pollution

A reach of the Houston Ship Channel was investigated during three separate overflights correlated with ground truth sampling on the Channel. Samples were analyzed for such conventional parameters as biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, turbidity, chlorophyll, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and light penetration. Infrared analyses conducted on each sample included reflectance ATR analysis, carbon tetrachloride extraction of organics and subsequent scanning, and KBr evaporate analysis of CCl4 extract concentrate. Imagery which was correlated with field and laboratory data developed from ground truth sampling included that obtained from aerial KA62 hardware, RC-8 metric camera systems, and the RS-14 infrared scanner. The images were subjected to analysis by three film density gradient interpretation units. Data were then analyzed for correlations between imagery interpretation as derived from the three instruments and laboratory infrared signatures and other pertinent field and laboratory analyses.

Davis, E. M.↗

Separating Real and Apparent Effects of Cloud, Humidity, and Dynamics on Aerosol Optical Thickness near Cloud Edges

Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is one of aerosol parameters that can be measured on a routine basis with reasonable accuracy from Sun-photometric observations at the surface. However, AOT-derived near clouds is fraught with various real effects and artifacts, posing a big challenge for studying aerosol and cloud interactions. Recently, several studies have reported correlations between AOT and cloud cover, pointing to potential cloud contamination and the aerosol humidification effect; however, not many quantitative assessments have been made. In this study, various potential causes of apparent correlations are investigated in order to separate the real effects from the artifacts, using well-maintained observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network, Total Sky Imager, airborne nephelometer, etc., over the Southern Great Plains site operated by the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. It was found that aerosol humidification effects can explain about one fourth of the correlation between the cloud cover and AOT. New particle genesis, cloud-processed particles, atmospheric dynamics, and aerosol indirect effects are likely to be contributing to as much as the remaining three fourth of the relationship between cloud cover and AOT.

Jeong, Myeong-Jae↗

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correlating hot-electron preheat from the two-plasmon decay instability to $ρR$ degradation for direct-drive implosions on OMEGA

Focused experiments were performed with the goal of isolating the impact of hot-electron preheat on compression in deuterium–tritium (DT) layered, direct-drive implosions on OMEGA. Preheat from the hot-electrons generated by two-plasmon–decay (TPD) activity was varied through the incident laser intensity, with the total preheat energy deposited into unablated DT fuel being inferred using hard x-ray measurements. Results show a clear correlation between the inferred preheat levels and $ρR$ degradation that is consistent with a derived, 1D preheat model. A fit to the results also provides an estimated range of $ρR$ degradation from non-preheat sources for the adiabat ≈5 implosions used in this study. A follow-up study using targets containing Si-doped (5.5%) CH ablators (CHSi) demonstrated results consistent with mid-Z dopants mitigating TPD activity by showing these targets had almost no $ρR$ degradation as the laser intensity was increased up to levels previously considered damaging.

Doping↗