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SU-E-T-95: Delivery Time Estimator

Purpose: The development and testing of a tool for the inclusion of delivery time as a parameter in plan optimization. Methods: We developed an algorithm that estimates the time required for the machine and personnel movements required to deliver a treatment plan on a linear accelerator. We included dose rate, leaf motion, collimator motion, gantry motion, and couch motions (including time to enter the room to rotate the couch safely). Vault-specific parameters to account for time to enter and perform couch angle adjustments were also included. This algorithm works for static, step and shoot IMRT, and VMAT beams photon beams and for fixed electron beams. This was implemented as a script in our treatment planning system. We validated the estimator against actual recorded delivery time from our R and V system as well as recorded times from our IMRT QA delivery. Results: Data was collected (Figure 1) for 12 treatment plans by examining the R and V beam start times, and by manually timing the QA treatment for a reference, but the QA measurements were only significant to the nearest minute. The average difference between the estimated and R and V times was 15%, and 11% when excluding the major outliers. Outliers arose due to respiratory aides and gating techniques which could not be accounted for in the estimator. Conclusion: Non-mechanical factors such as the time a therapist needs to walk in and out of the room to adjust the couch needed to be fine-tuned and cycled back into the algorithm to improve the estimate. The algorithm has been demonstrated to provide reasonable and useful estimates for delivery time. This estimate has provided a useful additional input for clinical decision-making when comparing several potential radiation treatment options.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Scale-Dependent Value of QPF for Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

Incorporating rainfall forecasts into a real-time streamflow forecasting system extends the forecast lead time. Since quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are subject to substantial uncertainties, questions arise on the trade-off between the time horizon of the QPF and the accuracy of the streamflow forecasts. This study explores the problem systematically, exploring the uncertainties associated with QPFs and their hydrologic predictability. The focus is on scale dependence of the trade-off between the QPF time horizon, basin-scale, space-time scale of the QPF, and streamflow forecasting accuracy. To address this question, the study first performs a comprehensive independent evaluation of the QPFs at 140 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitored basins with a wide range of spatial scales (~10 – 40,000 km 2 ) over the state of Iowa in the Midwestern United States. The study uses High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and Global Forecasting System (GFS) QPFs for short and medium-range forecasts, respectively. Using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) as a reference, the results show that the rainfall-to-rainfall QPF errors are scale-dependent. The results from the hydrologic forecasting experiment show that both QPFs illustrate clear value for real-time streamflow forecasting at longer lead times in the short- to medium-range relative to the no-rain streamflow forecast. The value of QPFs for streamflow forecasting is particularly apparent for basin sizes below 1,000 km 2 . The space-time scale, or reference time t r ) (ratio of forecast lead time to basin travel time) ~ 1 depicts the largest streamflow forecasting skill with a systematic decrease in forecasting accuracy for t r > 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time Evolving Fission Chain Theory and Fast Neutron and Gamma-Ray Counting Distributions

Here, we solve a simple theoretical model of time evolving fission chains due to Feynman that generalizes and asymptotically approaches the point model theory. The point model theory has been used to analyze thermal neutron counting data. This extension of the theory underlies fast counting data for both neutrons and gamma rays from metal systems. Fast neutron and gamma-ray counting is now possible using liquid scintillator arrays with nanosecond time resolution. For individual fission chains, the differential equations describing three correlated probability distributions are solved: the time-dependent internal neutron population, accumulation of fissions in time, and accumulation of leaked neutrons in time. Explicit analytic formulas are given for correlated moments of the time evolving chain populations. The equations for random time gate fast neutron and gamma-ray counting distributions, due to randomly initiated chains, are presented. Correlated moment equations are given for both random time gate and triggered time gate counting. There are explicit formulas for all correlated moments are given up to triple order, for all combinations of correlated fast neutrons and gamma rays. The nonlinear differential equations for probabilities for time dependent fission chain populations have a remarkably simple Monte Carlo realization. A Monte Carlo code was developed for this theory and is shown to statistically realize the solutions to the fission chain theory probability distributions. Combined with random initiation of chains and detection of external quanta, the Monte Carlo code generates time tagged data for neutron and gamma-ray counting and from these data the counting distributions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Identifying and Correcting Timing Errors at Seismic Stations in and around Iran

A fundamental component of seismic research is the use of phase arrival times, which are central to event location, Earth model development, and phase identification, as well as derived products. Hence, the accuracy of arrival times is crucial. However, errors in the timing of seismic waveforms and the arrival times based on them may go unidentified by the end user, particularly when seismic data are shared between different organizations. Here, we present a method used to analyze travel-time residuals for stations in and around Iran to identify time periods that are likely to contain station timing problems. For the 14 stations with the strongest evidence of timing errors lasting one month or longer, timing corrections are proposed to address the problematic time periods. Finally, two additional stations are identified with incorrect locations in the International Registry of Seismograph Stations, and one is found to have erroneously reported arrival times in 2011.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Technical Gaps in Hanford High-Level Waste Solids Settling Behavior and Settling Time Evaluation for Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) Operations

Settling of high-level waste (HLW) solids in process vessels is a key conceptual process step in providing HLW feed directly to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) HLW Vitrification Facility. Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) is a potential approach to initiating HLW vitrification prior to completing of the WTP Pretreatment Facility. Settling would be used with subsequent supernatant decant to concentrate HLW feed. To support planning for DFHLW, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) requested support from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the current data set available to predict the time needed for HLW solids to settle, to identify gaps in the understanding and predictive capability of HLW solids waste settling times, and to provide scoping estimates of the potential settling time. Eight technical gaps were identified for predicting settling times and characteristics of the formed sediment layers including: Gap 1: In-Tank Settling Rates Faster than Settling of Laboratory Samples, Gap 2: Effect of Sludge Leaching/Washing on Predicted Settling Times, Gap 3: Predicting Waste Settling from Waste Chemistry (Waste Type), Gap 4: Predicting Waste Settling from Particle Size and Density Distributions (PSDDs), Gap 5: Insufficient Laboratory and In-Tank Settling Data to Represent Hanford Waste, Gap 6: Methods for Real-Time, In-Tank Tracking of Settling, Gap 7: Prediction of Sediment Erosion Resistance as a Function of Settling Time, and Gap 8: Prediction of Sediment Solids Content as a Function of Settling Time. In addition to the data gaps, an overarching observation of the settling rate and settled layer data is the significant variation in behavior. At similar solids concentrations, settling rates can vary by as much as 3 orders of magnitude depending on the source waste tank, and significantly different settling rates are noted between laboratory and in situ tests for the same waste tank. The range of average solids concentration in existing HLW sediment, which may have been quiescent for decades, can vary from less than 7 wt% to greater than 74 wt% solids. The shear strengths (or yield stresses) measured on laboratory samples range from less than 27 Pa to greater than 6400 Pa. These variations can challenge process planning for the application of a settle/decant process for DFHLW. This report describes the significance of the gaps to the settle/decant process and presents uncertainties by way of examples. Potential technical approaches for resolving these gaps are described and the estimated difficulty in resolving these gaps is evaluated. Based on the significance of the gap and the difficulty of resolution, recommendations are made to address specific gaps. Scoping estimates of the potential settling times for DFHLW solids have been made based on the existing data set with its associated gaps. Depending on the process vessel depth and final sediment concentration, substantial fractions of the scoping estimate results for settling times for characterized HLW exceed the 2-week period that has been previously assumed for process planning. There is also significant disparity, potentially greater than a factor of 5000 difference, in the estimated settling times depending on process vessel depth and final sediment solid concentration. This variation in results underscores the significance of the identified gaps and uncertainties with respect to process planning for utilizing settle/decant operations for DFHLW.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Linear system identification via backward-time observer models

Presented here is an algorithm to compute the Markov parameters of a backward-time observer for a backward-time model from experimental input and output data. The backward-time observer Markov parameters are decomposed to obtain the backward-time system Markov parameters (backward-time pulse response samples) for the backward-time system identification. The identified backward-time system Markov parameters are used in the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm to identify a backward-time state-space model, which can be easily converted to the usual forward-time representation. If one reverses time in the model to be identified, what were damped true system modes become modes with negative damping, growing as the reversed time increases. On the other hand, the noise modes in the identification still maintain the property that they are stable. The shift from positive damping to negative damping of the true system modes allows one to distinguish these modes from noise modes. Experimental results are given to illustrate when and to what extent this concept works.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

The NIST Internet time service

We will describe the NIST Network Time Service which provides time and frequency information over the Internet. Our first time server is located in Boulder, Colorado, a second backup server is under construction there, and we plan to install a third server on the East Coast later this year. The servers are synchronized to UTC(NIST) with an uncertainty of about 0.8 ms RMS and they will respond to time requests from any client on the Internet in several different formats including the DAYTIME, TIME and NTP protocols. The DAYTIME and TIME protocols are the easiest to use and are suitable for providing time to PC's and other small computers. In addition to UTC(NIST), the DAYTIME message provides advance notice of leap seconds and of the transitions to and from Daylight Saving Time. The Daylight Saving Time notice is based on the US transition dates of the first Sunday in April and the last one in October. The NTP is a more complex protocol that is suitable for larger machines; it is normally run as a 'daemon' process in the background and can keep the time of the client to within a few milliseconds of UTC(NIST). We will describe the operating principles of various kinds of client software ranging from a simple program that queries the server once and sets the local clock to more complex 'daemon' processes (such as NTP) that continuously correct the time of the local clock based on periodic calibrations.

Levine, Judah↗

Summary of Simplified Two Time Step Method for Calculating Combustion Rates and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions for Hydrogen/Air and Hydrogen/Oxygen

A simplified single rate expression for hydrogen combustion and nitrogen oxide production was developed. Detailed kinetics are predicted for the chemical kinetic times using the complete chemical mechanism over the entire operating space. These times are then correlated to the reactor conditions using an exponential fit. Simple first order reaction expressions are then used to find the conversion in the reactor. The method uses a two time step kinetic scheme. The first time averaged step is used at the initial times with smaller water concentrations. This gives the average chemical kinetic time as a function of initial overall fuel air ratio, temperature, and pressure. The second instantaneous step is used at higher water concentrations (greater than l x 10(exp -20)) moles per cc) in the mixture which gives the chemical kinetic time as a function of the instantaneous fuel and water mole concentrations, pressure and temperature (T(sub 4)). The simple correlations are then compared to the turbulent mixing times to determine the limiting properties of the reaction. The NASA Glenn GLSENS kinetics code calculates the reaction rates and rate constants for each species in a kinetic scheme for finite kinetic rates. These reaction rates are used to calculate the necessary chemical kinetic times. This time is regressed over the complete initial conditions using the Excel regression routine. Chemical kinetic time equations for H2 and NOx are obtained for H2/Air fuel and for H2/O2. A similar correlation is also developed using data from NASA's Chemical Equilibrium Applications (CEA) code to determine the equilibrium temperature (T(sub 4)) as a function of overall fuel/air ratio, pressure and initial temperature (T(sub 3)). High values of the regression coefficient R squared are obtained.

Marek, C. John↗

Simplified Two-Time Step Method for Calculating Combustion Rates and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions for Hydrogen/Air and Hydorgen/Oxygen

A simplified single rate expression for hydrogen combustion and nitrogen oxide production was developed. Detailed kinetics are predicted for the chemical kinetic times using the complete chemical mechanism over the entire operating space. These times are then correlated to the reactor conditions using an exponential fit. Simple first order reaction expressions are then used to find the conversion in the reactor. The method uses a two-time step kinetic scheme. The first time averaged step is used at the initial times with smaller water concentrations. This gives the average chemical kinetic time as a function of initial overall fuel air ratio, temperature, and pressure. The second instantaneous step is used at higher water concentrations (> 1 x 10(exp -20) moles/cc) in the mixture which gives the chemical kinetic time as a function of the instantaneous fuel and water mole concentrations, pressure and temperature (T4). The simple correlations are then compared to the turbulent mixing times to determine the limiting properties of the reaction. The NASA Glenn GLSENS kinetics code calculates the reaction rates and rate constants for each species in a kinetic scheme for finite kinetic rates. These reaction rates are used to calculate the necessary chemical kinetic times. This time is regressed over the complete initial conditions using the Excel regression routine. Chemical kinetic time equations for H2 and NOx are obtained for H2/air fuel and for the H2/O2. A similar correlation is also developed using data from NASA s Chemical Equilibrium Applications (CEA) code to determine the equilibrium temperature (T4) as a function of overall fuel/air ratio, pressure and initial temperature (T3). High values of the regression coefficient R2 are obtained.

Molnar, Melissa↗

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

This report details one of three experiments performed during FY 2007 for the NASA RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) at Stennis Space Center. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). The intent of the RPC experiment was to assess the degree to which VIIRS data can provide forest disturbance monitoring information as an input to a forest threat EWS (Early Warning System) as compared to the level of information that can be obtained from MODIS data. The USDA Forest Service (USFS) plans to use MODIS products for generating broad-scaled, regional monitoring products as input to an EWS for forest health threat assessment. NASA SSC is helping the USFS to evaluate and integrate currently available satellite remote sensing technologies and data products for the EWS, including the use of MODIS products for regional monitoring of forest disturbance. Gypsy moth defoliation of the mid-Appalachian highland region was selected as a case study. Gypsy moth is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) of 2003; the gypsy moth threatens eastern U.S. hardwood forests, which are also a concern highlighted in the HFRA of 2003. This region was selected for the project because extensive gypsy moth defoliation occurred there over multiple years during the MODIS operational period. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including agricultural efficiency, coastal management, ecological forecasting, disaster management, and carbon management. In this experiment, MODIS data and VIIRS data simulated from MODIS were assessed for their ability to contribute broad, regional geospatial information on gypsy moth defoliation. Landsat and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) data were used to assess the quality of gypsy moth defoliation mapping products derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS data. The project focused on use of data from MODIS Terra as opposed to MODIS Aqua mainly because only MODIS Terra data was collected during 2000 and 2001-years with comparatively high amounts of gypsy moth defoliation within the study area. The project assessed the quality of VIIRS data simulation products. Hyperion data was employed to assess the quality of MODIS-based VIIRS simulation datasets using image correlation analysis techniques. The ART (Application Research Toolbox) software was used for data simulation. Correlation analysis between MODIS-simulated VIIRS data and Hyperion-simulated VIIRS data for red, NIR (near-infrared), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) image data products collectively indicate that useful, effective VIIRS simulations can be produced using Hyperion and MODIS data sources. The r(exp 2) for red, NIR, and NDVI products were 0.56, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively, indicating a moderately high correlation between the 2 data sources. Temporal decorrelation from different data acquisition times and image misregistration may have lowered correlation results. The RPC experiment also generated MODIS-based time series data products using the TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software. Time series of simulated VIIRS NDVI products were produced at approximately 400-meter resolution GSD (Ground Sampling Distance) at nadir for comparison to MODIS NDVI products at either 250- or 500-meter GSD. The project also computed MODIS (MOD02) NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) products at 500-meter GSD for comparison to NDVI-based products. For each year during 2000-2006, MODIS and VIIRS (simulated from MOD02) time series were computed during the peak gypsy moth defoliation time frame in the study area (approximately June 10 through July 27). Gypsy moth defoliation mapping products from simated VIIRS and MOD02 time series were produced using multiple methods, including image classification and change detection via image differencing. The latter enabled an automated defoliation detection product computed using percent change in maximum NDVI for a peak defoliation period during 2001 compared to maximum NDVI across the entire 2000-2006 time frame. Final gypsy moth defoliation mapping products were assessed for accuracy using randomly sampled locations found on available geospatial reference data (Landsat and ASTER data in conjunction with defoliation map data from the USFS). Extensive gypsy moth defoliation patches were evident on screen displays of multitemporal color composites derived from MODIS data and from simulated VIIRS vegetation index data. Such defoliation was particularly evident for 2001, although widespread denuded forests were also seen for 2000 and 2003. These visualizations were validated using aforementioned reference data. Defoliation patches were visible on displays of MODIS-based NDVI and NDMI data. The viewing of apparent defoliation patches on all of these products necessitated adoption of a specialized temporal data processing method (e.g., maximum NDVI during the peak defoliation time frame). The frequency of cloud cover necessitated this approach. Multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS Terra data both produced effective general classifications of defoliated forest versus other land cover. For 2001, the MOD02-simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI classification produced a similar yet slightly lower overall accuracy (87.28 percent with 0.72 Kappa) than the MOD02 250-meter NDVI classification (88.44 percent with 0.75 Kappa). The MOD13 250-meter NDVI classification had a lower overall accuracy (79.13 percent) and a much lower Kappa (0.46). The report discusses accuracy assessment results in much more detail, comparing overall classification and individual class accuracy statistics for simulated VIIRS 400-meter NDVI, MOD02 250-meter NDVI, MOD02-500 meter NDVI, MOD13 250-meter NDVI, and MOD02 500-meter NDMI classifications. Automated defoliation detection products from simulated VIIRS and MOD02 data for 2001 also yielded similar, relatively high overall classification accuracy (85.55 percent for the VIIRS 400-meter NDVI versus 87.28 percent for the MOD02 250-meter NDVI). In contrast, the USFS aerial sketch map of gypsy moth defoliation showed a lower overall classification accuracy at 73.64 percent. The overall classification Kappa values were also similar for the VIIRS (approximately 0.67 Kappa) versus the MOD02 (approximately 0.72 Kappa) automated defoliation detection product, which were much higher than the values exhibited by the USFS sketch map product (overall Kappa of approximately 0.47). The report provides additional details on the accuracy of automated gypsy moth defoliation detection products compared with USFS sketch maps. The results suggest that VIIRS data can be effectively simulated from MODIS data and that VIIRS data will produce gypsy moth defoliation mapping products that are similar to MODIS-based products. The results of the RPC experiment indicate that VIIRS and MODIS data products have good potential for integration into the forest threat EWS. The accuracy assessment was performed only for 2001 because of time constraints and a relative scarcity of cloud-free Landsat and ASTER data for the peak defoliation period of the other years in the 2000-2006 time series. Additional work should be performed to assess the accuracy of gypsy moth defoliation detection products for additional years.The study area (mid-Appalachian highlands) and application (gypsy moth forest defoliation) are not necessarily representative of all forested regions and of all forest threat disturbance agents. Additional work should be performed on other inland and coastal regions as well as for other major forest threats.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Coding for Communication Channels with Dead-Time Constraints

Coding schemes have been designed and investigated specifically for optical and electronic data-communication channels in which information is conveyed via pulse-position modulation (PPM) subject to dead-time constraints. These schemes involve the use of error-correcting codes concatenated with codes denoted constrained codes. These codes are decoded using an interactive method. In pulse-position modulation, time is partitioned into frames of Mslots of equal duration. Each frame contains one pulsed slot (all others are non-pulsed). For a given channel, the dead-time constraints are defined as a maximum and a minimum on the allowable time between pulses. For example, if a Q-switched laser is used to transmit the pulses, then the minimum allowable dead time is the time needed to recharge the laser for the next pulse. In the case of bits recorded on a magnetic medium, the minimum allowable time between pulses depends on the recording/playback speed and the minimum distance between pulses needed to prevent interference between adjacent bits during readout. The maximum allowable dead time for a given channel is the maximum time for which it is possible to satisfy the requirement to synchronize slots. In mathematical shorthand, the dead-time constraints for a given channel are represented by the pair of integers (d,k), where d is the minimum allowable number of zeroes between ones and k is the maximum allowable number of zeroes between ones. A system of the type to which the present schemes apply is represented by a binary- input, real-valued-output channel model illustrated in the figure. At the transmitting end, information bits are first encoded by use of an error-correcting code, then further encoded by use of a constrained code. Several constrained codes for channels subject to constraints of (d,infinity) have been investigated theoretically and computationally. The baseline codes chosen for purposes of comparison were simple PPM codes characterized by M-slot PPM frames separated by d-slot dead times.

Moision, Bruce↗

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗

Modeling of Cavity Residence Time via Modeled Lagrangian Particle Tracking

One of the critical components in a scramjet is the cavity flame holder. In evaluating the sizing of this component, the residence time of the fuel in the cavity is a common parameter used. However, to obtain the residence time via CFD is an expensive undertaking. One method is to perform an LES simulation of the cavity and use Lagrangian particle tracking to obtain both the mean and probability density function of the time that the particles remain in the cavity. While this method affords a significant amount of information, it is very costly in CPU run time. A simpler method involves performing a time accurate RANS simulation of the cavity, and when converged, overlay a traceable scalar in the cavity region, and then record the decay of this scalar’s flux at a downstream location. The time scale of the decay rate can then be estimated and a residence time inferred. This method is less computationally expensive than the LES approach, but still requires a time-accurate solution while only providing a mean cavity residence time evaluation. In this paper a method of determining the mean cavity residence time as well as the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the residence time is proposed and demonstrated. This method is based on Lagrangian particle tracking modeled by the Generalized Langevin Equation and is implemented as a post-processing step for a steady RANS solution. Computational cost is on the order of minutes and the results are in agreement with values obtained by the LES and scalar decay methods.

Langevin↗

Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted ℓ 2 -norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

An Orthogonal Recursive Bisection (ORB) Based Time Advancement Algorithm for CFD-DEM Solvers

The time integration of the granular phase in coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) – discrete element method (DEM) simulations presents a unique computational challenge brought about by the large variations in particle collisional time scales. Particles in the dilute regions of the computational domain can be advanced with large time steps while dense regions require much smaller time increments. However, the time step size in most solvers is globally set as the limit for accuracy and stability imposed by the collisions and is typically orders of magnitude less than that required away from collisions. This work addresses this precise issue and provides a strategy to avoid the use of a global conservative small time step size for the entire set of particles.A novel time stepping algorithm for CFD-DEM solvers using a partitioning approach using orthogonal recursive bisection (ORB) that allows for variable time steps among particles is described and its computational performance is compared against baseline explicit methods, typically used in several CFD-DEM solvers. ORB has advantages of being relatively quick and easy to update incrementally and has the required heuristic behavior (i.e., it will split the region in half with a cluster on each side) when groups of particles are well separated (clustered). The algorithm presented in this work uses a local time stepping approach to resolve collisional time scales for subsets of particles that are present at the leaves of the ORB, thereby resulting in substantial reduction of computational cost. The parallel implementation of this method where a ``knapsack” algorithm is used in tandem with ORB for effective load-balancing is also presented, where a best possible partitioning is obtained based on number of particles and local time-stepping costs. The algorithm is tested against benchmark problems with varying particle distributions that include fluidized bed and riser flow scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that the approach is 2-3X faster than traditional explicit methods for problems that involve both dense and dilute regions, while maintaining the same level of accuracy.

adaptive timestepping↗

THE DESIGN OF LAYER TIME OPTIMIZATION IN LARGE SCALE ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING WITH FIBER REINFORCED POLYMER COMPOSITES

In this study, we have developed a method to optimize a layer deposition time (a.k.a. layer time) for large-scale additive manufacturing (AM) via physics-based simulations. A long layer time leads to an over-cooled surface on which a new layer is deposited, and therefore, it may result in a weak bonding or debonding between layers, cracking, or warping. A short layer time leads to a high temperature of the structure due to insufficient cooling, and therefore, the structure may not be stiff enough and may collapse during manufacturing. Therefore, it is important to estimate the optimal layer time in additive manufacturing for a high-quality product. The temperature of a top layer right before deposition is recommended to be slightly higher than the glass temperature of the material. A temperature cooling was approximated to an exponential function of time, and the optimized layer time was obtained based on a target temperature while maintaining a minimal printing time. The material used is carbon fiber-reinforced polycarbonate (CF/PC), and the large-scale deposition system used is LSAM TM from Thermwood Corporation. Three different layer time cases were used for experiments, and a series of thermal images were obtained via an infra-red (IR) camera during the entire AM processes. AM process simulations were performed using a finite element method and the temperature profiles from the simulation were in good agreement with those from experiments. The layer time optimization was performed based on the temperature profiles from the simulations. A layer temperature with the optimal layer time was confirmed as the target temperature through simulation.

Jo, Eonyeon↗

Multigrid methods with space–time concurrency

Here, we consider the comparison of multigrid methods for parabolic partial differential equations that allow space–time concurrency. With current trends in computer architectures leading towards systems with more, but not faster, processors, space–time concurrency is crucial for speeding up time-integration simulations. In contrast, traditional time-integration techniques impose serious limitations on parallel performance due to the sequential nature of the time-stepping approach, allowing spatial concurrency only. This paper considers the three basic options of multigrid algorithms on space–time grids that allow parallelism in space and time: coarsening in space and time, semicoarsening in the spatial dimensions, and semicoarsening in the temporal dimension. We develop parallel software and performance models to study the three methods at scales of up to 16K cores and introduce an extension of one of them for handling multistep time integration. We then discuss advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and their benefit compared to traditional space-parallel algorithms with sequential time stepping on modern architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PPINN: Parareal physics-informed neural network for time-dependent PDEs

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) encode physical conservation laws and prior physical knowledge into the neural networks, ensuring the correct physics is represented accurately while alleviating the need for supervised learning to a great degree. While effective for relatively short-term time integration, when long time integration of the time-dependent PDEs is sought, the time–space domain may become arbitrarily large and hence training of the neural network may become prohibitively expensive. To this end, we develop a parareal physics-informed neural network (PPINN), hence decomposing a long-time problem into many independent short-time problems supervised by an inexpensive/fast coarse-grained (CG) solver. In particular, the serial CG solver is designed to provide approximate predictions of the solution at discrete times, while initiate many fine PINNs simultaneously to correct the solution iteratively. There is a two-fold benefit from training PINNs with small-data sets rather than working on a large-data set directly, i.e., training of individual PINNs with small-data is much faster, while training the fine PINNs can be readily parallelized. Consequently, compared to the original PINN approach, the proposed PPINN approach may achieve a significant speed-up for long-time integration of PDEs, assuming that the CG solver is fast and can provide reasonable predictions of the solution, hence aiding the PPINN solution to converge in just a few iterations. To investigate the PPINN performance on solving time-dependent PDEs, we first apply the PPINN to solve the Burgers equation, and subsequently we apply the PPINN to solve a two-dimensional nonlinear diffusion–reaction equation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that PPINNs converge in a few iterations with significant speed-ups proportional to the number of time-subdomains employed.

42 ENGINEERING↗