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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting Fracture Porosity Evolution in Sandstone (Final Report)

To better understand porosity, strength, chemical reactivity, and patterns of fractures, we developed methods using mineral deposits to unravel how fracture growth and diagenesis interact to create and destroy fracture porosity. Quartz and dolomite cement textures and associated fluid inclusion assemblage sequences and thermal histories provided data to infer the duration and rates at which fractures open. We developed and tested a model that accounts for how fracture porosity and rock properties change as a function of thermal exposure and how fracture size and arrangement evolve. Effects of cement deposits on growth were investigated with new geomechanical models and new methods to quantify fracture spatial arrangement. We tested these concepts in a wide range of rock types using outcrop and core-based datasets. We documented opening histories of fractures and fracture arrays in contrasting tectonic and thermal regimes. Our methods set a new standard for fracture characterization and our diagenetic-geomechanical model accurately predicts fluid flow characteristics of fractured rocks based on coupled effects of diagenesis and deformation. Results represent a significant advance in fundamental understanding of fractures in the Earth and have application to improving subsurface engineering operations in a wide range of contexts including geothermal and sequestration applications. The breakthrough of successfully reconstructing the timing and opening rates of parts of single fractures and portions of fracture arrays to document the growth and linkage of fracture arrays was an accomplishment of this grant that is being followed up in our current BES grant DE-SC0022968, ‘Reconstructing and Predicting Fracture Pattern Evolution‘

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3D Geologic Framework Modelling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site and Pajarito Plateau: Integrating a realistic 3D fault network and modelling subsurface relationships in a sparsely sampled and complex geologic region

The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Regional Phase Amplitude Model of 2-D Attenuation for North America

We analyzed seismic attenuation patterns across the North America using over 70,000,000 Lg wave amplitudes recorded by the various networks at frequencies of 0.1-32 Hz. Our inversion solved for laterally varying attenuation, site terms, moments, and apparent stress following Phillips et al., (2016). The inversion was anchored by independently constrained: corner frequencies (via coda spectral ratios) to control the attenuation-stress tradeoff and moment measurements of teleseismic (GCMT, USGS) and regional (St. Louis University and UC Berkeley) earthquakes to provided absolute scaling. The quality factor (Q) shows clear regional patterns: low values in coastal, volcanic, and tectonically active regions, and high values in stable areas like the Great Plains and major plateaus throughout North America. These 2-D Q models enable improved regional source characterization, magnitude estimation, and yield determination.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A theoretical/computational framework to measure SiO2 and MgO viscosity at high pressure

The convection of the mantle of Earth and super-Earths is important for many terrestrial phenomena, from plate tectonics to outgassing. Rheological properties, such as viscosity, regulate the transport of thermal energy and mass. However, the viscosity of mantle-relevant materials, such as MgO, at relevant pressures (>120 GPa) are not well constrained. The objective of this work was to develop a computational platform to simulate novel experiments aiming to measure the viscosity of MgO at high pressures. Experiments performed by our collaborators at Johns Hopkins University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory use the OMEGA EP laser facility to shock a corrugated MgO interface to 170 GPa, with resulting velocity evolution governed by the viscous Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. We used an in-house hydrocode to simulate this process and thus provide a bound on viscosity by comparing our simulations results to these experiments, as well as to examine the physical processes at play. We simulated the experiments with different values of MgO viscosity (from inviscid to 10,000 Pa∙s) while taking into account the unsteady laser pulse, the material's equation of state, and the rate-dependent constitutive relation for MgO, and the materials' equations of state. Our results suggest that MgO at these conditions has a viscosity within an order of magnitude of 5000 Pa∙s.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS) Milestone 6.0: Evaluation of Class VI Readiness

Introduction. Project OASIS is approximately 30 miles southeast of Birmingham, Alabama, and approximately 5 miles north-northwest of Alabama Power Company's Plant Gaston. Geologically, the Project area is in the Alabama fold and thrust belt province. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis that is not collocated with prospective storage geology (the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern US in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under explored areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The Project OASIS surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment. The purpose of drilling the Westover Stratigraphic Test Well #2 was to collect geologic data to model the feasibility of commercial scale CO 2 injection and storage in an under explored region. This initiative benefits the regions emitters as the data generated from this study can inform their own internal decision making. The field program included geological and geophysical evaluations, reservoir engineering analyses, and risk assessments. This report evaluates existing data, as well as a variety of modeling scenarios to evaluate project readiness. Importantly, the impact of this study is not limited to Alabama as there are numerous large emitters throughout Appalachia, in similar geologic settings, contemplating their decarbonization options.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

CarbonSAFE Phase II: Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County, Alabama (Project OASIS), Milestone M3 - Site Specific Drilling Report

The Phase II Storage Complex Feasibility project, entitled "Optimizing Alabama's CO 2 Storage in Shelby County, Alabama (Project OASIS)," is a part of the DOE/NETL's CarbonSAFE initiative. The Project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), and includes participation from Advanced Resources International, Inc. (ARI), Crescent Resource Innovation, Southern Company, Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, and Oklahoma State University. Project OASIS is working to establish the foundation for a commercial-scale geologic storage complex for CO 2 captured from Plant Gaston (home of the National Carbon Capture Center) and surrounding industrial sources of CO 2 located in Shelby County, Alabama. The Project objectives are: • Demonstrate that the subsurface saline formations at the storage complex can store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely and permanently. • Develop a comprehensive Community Benefits Plan. • Develop the infrastructure framework for a CO 2 storage hub. • Develop a rigorous risk registry and to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment. • Develop a monitoring plan. • Develop a comprehensive site characterization plan to support an Underground Injection Control Class VI Permit in a future Phase III program. • Evaluate the commercial viability of the project. Project OASIS is about 30 miles southeast of Birmingham, Alabama within a geologic province called the Valley and Ridge (Figure 1.1). The Valley and Ridge Province comprises a sequence of Paleozoic carbonate and clastic rocks that underwent structural deformation during the Alleghanian Orogeny. Storage prospects occur in relatively flat lying structural panels located between thrust faults. Available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment. The purpose of drilling the Westover Stratigraphic Test Well #2 was to collect geologic data to model the feasibility of commercial scale CO 2 injection and storage. This includes geological and geophysical evaluations, reservoir engineering analyses, and risk assessments.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS), Task 5.0 Deliverable: Infrastructure Assessment Report

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis that is not collocated with prospective storage geology (the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S. in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under explored areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale. The Project OASIS surface property is owned by a timber and land stewardship company, The Westervelt Company, Inc., who worked with the Project Team to select and prepare adequate sites for geologic assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS): Task 8 Deliverable 8.0 - Commercialization Plan

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. This work builds on the initiatives of the Southeast Regional Carbon Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA, DE-FE0031830) that identified nearly 500 million metric tonnes of CO 2 emitted on an annual basis from industrial facilities that are not collocated with prospective storage geology (i.e., the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern U.S. in this context). This observation suggests costly investments in connective infrastructure (e.g., pipelines) or exploratory well drilling campaigns are required to identify CO 2 storage opportunities in under-developed areas. While not traditionally thought of for saline storage, these studies suggest that storage prospects in the Valley and Ridge Province of the Appalachian Fold and Thrust Belt occur in relatively flat lying structural panels between thrust faults. For the Project OASIS region, available geologic studies related to hydrocarbon exploration suggest that Cambro-Ordovician carbonates and Cambrian clastic units offer multiple potential storage intervals, and that regional confining systems are present, such as the tectonically thickened Floyd-Parkwood Shale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Analysis of Geologic CO 2 Migration Pathways in Farnsworth Field, NW Anadarko Basin

This study reports on analyses of natural, geologic CO 2 migration paths in Farnsworth Oil Field, northern Texas, where CO 2 was injected into the Pennsylvanian Morrow B reservoir as part of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration efforts. We interpret 2D and 3D seismic reflection datasets of the study site, which is located on the western flank of the Anadarko basin, and compare our seismic interpretations with results from a tracer study. Petroleum system models are developed to understand the petroleum system and petroleum- and CO 2 -migration pathways. We find no evidence of seismically resolvable faults in Farnsworth Field, but interpret a karst structure, erosional structures, and incised valleys. These interpretations are compared with results of a Morrow B well-to-well tracer study that suggests that inter-well flow is up-dip or lateral. Southeastward fluid flow is inhibited by dip direction, thinning, and draping of the Morrow B reservoir over a deeper, eroded formation. Petroleum system models predict a deep basin-ward increase in temperature and maturation of the source rocks. In the northwestern Anadarko Basin, petroleum migration was generally up-dip with local exceptions; the Morrow B sandstone was likely charged by formations both below and overlying the reservoir rock. Based on this analysis, we conclude that CO 2 escape in Farnsworth Field via geologic pathways such as tectonic faults is unlikely. Abandoned or aged wellbores remain a risk for CO 2 escape from the reservoir formation and deserve further monitoring and research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

U–Pb Geochronology and Stable Isotope Geochemistry of Terrestrial Carbonates, Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah: Implications for Synchronicity of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Isotope Excursions

The terrestrial Lower Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, is a critical archive of paleoclimate, tectonics, and vertebrate ecology and evolution. Early Cretaceous carbon cycle perturbations associated with ocean anoxia have been interpreted from this succession, as expressed in stable carbon isotopes. However, refining the timing of the observed stable isotope excursions remains a key challenge in understanding how marine anoxia affects the Earth system, and is ultimately recorded in the terrestrial realm. The geochronology and geochemistry of a terrestrial carbonate near the base of this succession, which potentially records the Ap7 global carbon isotope excursion, is studied here. Petrographic and geochemical analyses are used to test plausible mechanisms for U incorporation into the calcite lattice in this sample. Using these methods, the hypothesis that the incorporation of U was at or close to the timing of carbonate precipitation is evaluated. U–Pb geochronology of calcite indicates a plausible Early Cretaceous age. However, comparison of the new U–Pb ages of calcite with detrital zircon maximum depositional ages immediately beneath the studied sample indicates a disparity in the apparent sedimentation rates if both types of geochronologic information are interpreted as reflecting the timing of sediment deposition. The totality of data supports an early, and high-temperature, diagenetic timing of U incorporation, with potential for minor leaching of U in subsequent fluid–rock interaction. The most likely mechanism for U transport and immobilization in these samples is hydrothermal fluid–rock interaction. Therefore, the radiometric ages, and corresponding stable isotope composition of U-bearing carbonate domains in this sample, indicate early subsurface fluid–rock interactions and not a record of atmosphere–soil geochemical reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A strainmeter array as the fulcrum of novel observatory sites along the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory

Fault slip is a complex natural phenomenon involving multiple spatiotemporal scales from seconds to days to weeks. To understand the physical and chemical processes responsible for the full fault slip spectrum, a multidisciplinary approach is highly recommended. The Near Fault Observatories (NFOs) aim at providing high-precision and spatiotemporally dense multidisciplinary near-fault data, enabling the generation of new original observations and innovative scientific products. The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory is a permanent monitoring infrastructure established around the Alto Tiberina fault (ATF), a 60 km long low-angle normal fault (mean dip 20°), located along a sector of the Northern Apennines (central Italy) undergoing an extension at a rate of about 3 mm yr –1 . The presence of repeating earthquakes on the ATF and a steep gradient in crustal velocities measured across the ATF by GNSS stations suggest large and deep (5–12 km) portions of the ATF undergoing aseismic creep. Both laboratory and theoretical studies indicate that any given patch of a fault can creep, nucleate slow earthquakes, and host large earthquakes, as also documented in nature for certain ruptures (e.g., Iquique in 2014, Tōhoku in 2011, and Parkfield in 2004). Nonetheless, how a fault patch switches from one mode of slip to another, as well as the interaction between creep, slow slip, and regular earthquakes, is still poorly documented by near-field observation. With the strainmeter array along the Alto Tiberina fault system (STAR) project, we build a series of six geophysical observatory sites consisting of 80–160 m deep vertical boreholes instrumented with strainmeters and seismometers as well as meteorological and GNSS antennas and additional seismometers at the surface. By covering the portions of the ATF that exhibits repeated earthquakes at shallow depth (above 4 km) with these new observatory sites, we aim to collect unique open-access data to answer fundamental questions about the relationship between creep, slow slip, dynamic earthquake rupture, and tectonic faulting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Phase change instability in the mantle

Earth upper mantle phase change instability, discussing temperature gradient, transformation influence on fluid, olivine-spinel phase flow patterns and tectonics

Oxburgh, E. R.↗