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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
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NASA NTRS1998

Vertical and Horizontal Wind Structure Prior to and During the 1997/1998 ENSO Event

Analyses of ECMWF and satellite wind products are used to investigate low frequency fluctuations in the wind fields immediately preceding and during the 1997/1998 ENSO event. An extended EOF analysis of the horizontal and vertical wind structure that allows for the study of propagating features indicates that the dominant mode of variability established in the lower levels of the atmosphere is a convergence in the central tropical Pacific. At mid-levels, the westerlies increase with time over most of the equatorial Pacific, and there are closed cyclonic features on either side of the equator. At upper levels, the flow tends to become divergent across the equatorial Pacific, and there is a strong flow from the northwest Pacific across Indonesia that then turns to the west along the equator in the Indian Ocean. The addition of satellite data for improved surface wind estimates reveal that the Indian Ocean winds were anomalously strong during the winter preceding the initiation of the ENSO event. An analysis of the momentum convergence flux at the surface indicates a very strong anomaly 9 months prior to the ENSO event that begins in the western Indian Ocean and propagates to the east, arriving over the Pacific warm pool area coincident with the beginning of the El Nino. Changes in the near surface thermal and water vapor structure over the Indian Ocean during this period will also be discussed.

Adamec, David↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Self-Organized Criticality in the Substorm Phenomenon and its Relation to Localized Reconnection in the Plasma Sheet

Recent observations of the magnetotail plasma sheet have shown it to be a dynamic and turbulent region. Research has found strong turbulence in the plasma sheet at approximately 20 Earth's Radius tailward of Earth; the turbulence is observed at all activity levels. The existence of strong turbulence in the plasma sheet in the region associated with substorm onset might be thought difficult to reconcile with the coherence and repeatability of the substorm cycle. We review a variety of evidence that strongly suggests the magnetotail is driven, through magnetic flux transfer, into a state of "self-organized criticality" (SOC). It is an important property of physical systems that evolve into SOC that they self-organize into a unique, global dynamic state. This global state is inevitable, and repeatable. In this state, however, small-spatiotemporal-scale system fluctuations are unpredictable and can be only described statistically. This is the basis, we think, for the global coherence and repeatability of the substorm phenomenon in the turbulent plasma sheet. At, or near, substorm onset the plasma sheet can be described by a global SOC state containing significant small scale turbulence. In several recent studies, "sandpile" models were driven into SOC and then shown to reproduce various measures of substorm activity. We discuss the plasma physical foundation of these sandpile models. The evolution of simple continuum plasma sheet models into SOC-like states of many small reconnection events in the turbulent plasma sheet under the will be demonstrated. We view the substorm phenomenon as an avalanche assumption that the plasma sheet is in a SOC state.

Klimas, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Kelvin Helmholtz Instability at the Equatorial Magnetotail Boundary: MHD Simulation and Comparison with Geotail Observations

On March 24, 1995 the Geotail spacecraft observed large fluctuations of the magnetic field and plasma properties in the Low Latitude Boundary Layer (LLBL) about 15 R(sub E) tailward of the dusk meridian. Although the magnetospheric and the magnetosheath field were strongly northward, the B(sub z) component showed strong short duration fluctuations in which B(sub z) could even reach negative values. We have used two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations with magnetospheric and magnetosheath input parameters specifically chosen for this. Geotail event to identify the processes which cause the observed boundary properties. It is shown that these fluctuations can be explained by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability if the k vector of the instability has a component along the magnetic field direction. The simulation results show many of the characteristic properties of the Geotail observations. In particular, the quasi-periodic strong fluctuations are well explained by satellite crossings through the Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices. It is illustrated how the interior structure of the Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices leads to the rapid fluctuations in the Geotail observations. Our results suggest an average Kelvin-Helmholtz wavelength of about 5 R(sub E) with a vortex size of close to 2 R(sub E) for an average repetition time of 2.5 minutes. The growth time for these waves implies a source region of about 10 to 16 R(sub E) upstream from the location of the Geotail spacecraft (i.e., near the dusk meridian). The results also indicate a considerable mass transport of magnetosheath material into the magnetosphere by magnetic reconnection in the Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices.

Fairfield, Donald H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Role of Marangoni Convection for the FZ-Growth of Silicon

In growing crystals by the floating zone (FZ) technique under microgravity, the size restriction we have under earth conditions because of the hydrostatic pressure are avoided. Further, buoyancy related convection is eliminated to a high degree. But in the case of silicon, the gravity independent thermocapillary (Marangoni) convection is time-dependent even for small zone geometries. This has been demonstrated in several Technische Experimente unter Schwerelosigkeit (TEXUS) - technical experiments under reduced gravity) flights. Thus, to really take advantage of microgravity with respect to improve crystal quality, tools are required to control Marangoni convection in space facilities. Applying magnetic fields, convection can be influenced; fluid flow can either be damped (static magnetic fields) or overlaid by a regular flow regime (rotating magnetic fields). In floating zones of 8-10mm diameter and height (Ma approximately equals 6 x 10(exp 3)), a static magnetic field of about 2OOmT is sufficient to suppress time-dependent Marangoni convection to a high degree, but in dependence on the kind and the concentration of the added dopant, a new type of strongly pronounced dopant inhomogeneities have been detected. They are originated by thermoelectromagnetic convection. This can be avoided as well as detrimental effects on the radial dopant distribution by using rotating magnetic fields instead of static ones. Applying 75mT/50Hz to the FZ, the intensity of the dopant fluctuations is reduced to a high degree. Considering the rather low power consumption of rotating magnetic fields, this will be a useful tool for control or elimination of time-dependent Marangoni convection under microgravity. The strong time dependent character of thermocapillary flow and its influence on the temperature field has been measured in silicon half-zones for Marangoni numbers of Ma is approximately equal to 1-1.5 x 10(exp 4): temperature fluctuations up to 4C have been determined. Their frequency range was 0.1 and 0.4 Hz. Between certain thermocouple or sensor pairs, strong correlation has been detected.

Dold, P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Hydrazine Detection with a Tunable Diode Laser Spectrometer

Several instruments have been developed to measure low concentrations of hydrazine but none completely meet the sensitivity requirements while satisfying additional criteria such as quick response, stable calibration, interference free operation, online operation, reasonable cost, etc. A brief review is presented of the current technology including the electrochemical cell, the ion mobility spectrometer, the mass spectrometer, and the gas chromatograph. A review of the advantages and disadvantages of these instruments are presented here. The review also includes commercially unavailable technology such as the electronic nose and the Tunable Diode Laser (TDL) IR Spectrometer. It was found that the TDL could meet the majority of these criteria including fast response, minimum maintenance, portability, and reasonable cost. An experiment was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of such a system using an existing (non-portable) instrument. A lead-salt tunable diode laser, cooled to 85 degrees Kelvin was used to record direct absorption and second-derivative spectra of Hydrazine at several pressures to study the sensitivity to low levels of Hydrazine. Spectra of NH3 and CO2 were used for wavelength identification of the scanned region. With a pathlength of 80 m, detection sensitivities of about 1 ppb were achieved for hydrazine in dry nitrogen at a cell pressure of 100 mbar. For spectroscopic detection of Hydrazine, spectral regions including strong Ammonia or Carbon Dioxide lines must be avoided. Strong Hydrazine absorption features were identified at 940/cm showing minimal contribution from Ammonia interferences as suitable candidates for Hydrazine gas detection. For the studies reported here, the particular laser diode could only cover the narrow regions near 962/cm and 965/cm where strong Ammonia interferences were expected. However, the high resolution (0.001/cm) of the TDL spectrometer allowed individual lines of Hydrazine to be identified away from interferences from either Ammonia or Carbon Dioxide, especially at lower pressures. A Hydrazine line was identified at 961.75/cm which was free from Ammonia absorption and would be suitable to monitor hydrazine levels. This paper also shows data on the degradation of the detectivity of Hydrazine with increasing pressure. Several design options for a portable unit are presented, including designs with near IR and Quantum Cascade laser components which do not require liquid nitrogen cooling.

Houseman, John↗
NASA NTRS1999

Crres Observations of Particle Flux Dropout Events

The complete disappearance of energetic electrons was observed by CRRES in the near geosynchronous region in 7.5% of the orbits examined. These total flux dropouts were defined by the fluxes rapidly dropping to levels below the sensitivity of the MEA energetic electron spectrometer on the CRRES satellite. They were separated into those that were only energetic electron dropouts and those that were associated with energetic ion and plasma dropouts. Approximately 20% of the events showed dropouts of 0 particle fluxes, and these were usually coincident with large increases in the local magnetic intensity and signatures of strong current systems. The energetic particle instruments and magnetometer on CRRES provide a detailed picture of the particle and field responses to these unusual conditions. Both the local morning and dusk events were associated with strong azimuthal (eastward) and radial changes in the magnetic field indicative of a strong current system approaching and sometimes crossing the CRRES position at the time of the flux dropouts. The direction of the field changes and the details of particle observations are consistent with CRRES passing through the plasma sheet boundary layer and entering the tail lobe for a significant number of the events.

Fennell, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cosmic Journeys. To the Edge of Gravity, Space and Time: Structure and Evolution of the Universe Roadmap: 2003-2023

The Roadmap for the Structure and Evolution of the Universe (SEU) Theme embraces three fundamental, scientific quests: (1) To explain structure in the Universe and forecast our cosmic destiny, (2) To explore the cycles of matter and energy in the evolving Universe, (3) To examine the ultimate limits of gravity and energy in the Universe. We develop these quests into six focused research campaigns: (1) Identify dark matter and learn how it shapes galaxies and systems of galaxies, (2) Explore where and when the chemical elements were made (3) Understand the cycles in which matter, energy, and magnetic field are exchanged between stars and the gas between stars, (4) Discover how gas flows in disks and how cosmic jets are formed, (5) Identify the sources of gamma-ray bursts and high-energy cosmic rays, (6) Measure how strong gravity operates near black holes and how it affects the early Universe. These campaigns lead to a portfolio of future major missions of great scientific interest and popular appeal, strongly endorsed by the scientific community. Many have undergone significant initial study. Some are in a state of readiness that make them ideal candidates for the present Office of Space Science Strategic Plan; others may well feature in the next Plan. Each provides a golden scientific opportunity to advance our understanding of the Universe. We have identified three top-priority near-term science objectives together with missions to accomplish these goals. The three problems span a diverse range of subdisciplines, of observational technique, of timescales, and of cost, and are thus complementary, forming a coherent core program for the SEU theme in the 2003-2007 timeframe.These are : (1) Obtain precise measures of the chemical composition and physical conditions in objects ranging from the closest stars to the most distant quasars, (2) Utilize gravitational radiation as a probe of supermassive blackholes throughout the universe, (3) determine the nature of the highest energy cosmic rays. We also describe a small number of exciting missions which are strong candidates for new start status in the midterm, 2008-2013, pending technology development. These missions tackle fundamental problems through the entire electromagnetic spectrum, from the radio through gamma rays, and in many cases develop fascinating technologies with applicability not only elsewhere in NASA but outside of space science as well. Finally, we describe a set of "vision missions," which stretch our scientific imagination and set technology challenges for our field.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2000

Measurements in Separated and Transitional Boundary Layers Under Low-Pressure Turbine Airfoil Conditions

Detailed velocity measurements were made along a flat plate subject to the same dimensionless pressure gradient as the suction side of a modern low-pressure turbine airfoil. Reynolds numbers based on wetted plate length and nominal exit velocity were varied from 50,000 to 300,000, covering cruise to takeoff conditions. Low and high inlet free-stream turbulence intensities (0.2% and 7%) were set using passive grids. The location of boundary-layer separation does not depend strongly on the free-stream turbulence level or Reynolds number, as long as the boundary layer remains non-turbulent prior to separation. Strong acceleration prevents transition on the upstream part of the plate in all cases. Both free-stream turbulence and Reynolds number have strong effects on transition in the adverse pressure gradient region. Under low free-stream turbulence conditions transition is induced by instability waves in the shear layer of the separation bubble. Reattachment generally occurs at the transition start. At Re = 50,000 the separation bubble does not close before the trailing edge of the modeled airfoil. At higher Re, transition moves upstream, and the boundary layer reattaches. With high free-stream turbulence levels, transition appears to occur in a bypass mode, similar to that in attached boundary layers. Transition moves upstream, resulting in shorter separation regions. At Re above 200,000, transition begins before separation. Mean velocity, turbulence and intermittency profiles are presented.

Volino, Ralph J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Evolution of Tropospheric Temperature Field and its Relationship With The Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

The mean state and year-to-year variations of the tropospheric temperature fields and their relationship with the establishment of the summertime East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Indian monsoon (INM) are studied using the NCEP reanalysis data of 15 years (1982-1996). The results show that the seasonal shift of the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the establishment of the EAM and the INM are closely related to the seasonal warming which causes a reversal of the meridional gradient of upper tropospheric mean temperature over the monsoon regions. On the average of 15 years, the reversal time of the temperature gradient in the EAM region (INM region) is concurrent with (one pentad earlier than) the onset time of the summer monsoon. In most years of the 15-year period, the reversal of temperature gradient coincides or precedes the onset time of the summer monsoon in both the EAM region and the INM region. The results suggest an important role of thermal processes on the establishment of the Asian monsoon. The contributors to the upper tropospheric warming over the EAM region are the strong horizontal warm advection and the diabetic heating against the adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. In the INM region, strong adiabatic heating by subsidence and the diabetic heating are major warming processes against the strong horizontal cold advection related to the persistent northwestlies to the southwestern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau. It appears that the early or late establishment of the Asian summer monsoon is not directly related to the differential warming near the surface.

He, H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Magnetometer Data Tests Models for the Origin of the Martian Crustal Dichotomy; Dichotomy Models Constrain Timing of Martian Magnetic Field

Measurements recently supplied by the MGS Magnetometer/Electron Reflectometer (MAG/ER) on MGS can be applied to test theories of the origin of the martian crustal dichotomy. Strong (+/- 1500 nT) magnetic anomalies are observed in the Martian crust. The observations can be summarized as follows: 1) strong crustal magnetic sources are generally confined to the southern highlands, although weaker (approx. 40 nT) anomalies were observed during close periapsis; 2) strong magnetic anomalies are absent in the vicinity of Hellas and Argyre; 3) the anomalies in the region 0 deg to 90 deg S, 120 deg to 240 deg west have a linear geometry, strike generally east west for 1000s km, and show several reversals. This latter point has led to the suggestion that some form of lateral plate tectonics may have been operative in the southern highlands of Mars. These observations have led previous workers to hypothesize that the magnetic anomalies were present prior to and were destroyed by the formation of Hellas and Argyre. As such large impacts are confined to the era of heavy bombardment, this places the time of formation of large magnetic anomalies prior to approx. 3.9 Ga. One obvious extension of this is that the northern lowlands lack significant anomalies because they were erased by impacts and/or the northern lowlands represent crust completely reheated above the Curie temperature. Preliminary observations of the distributions of the large crustal magnetic anomalies show that many of them extend continuously over the highland lowland boundary. This occurs particularly north of the boundary between 30 deg W and 270 deg W, corresponding to northern Arabia, but also occurs in southern Elysium (approx. 10 deg S, 200 deg) and the SW portion of Tharsis (approx. 15 deg S, 140 deg). This suggests that, in these areas, Noachian crust containing the greater than 3.9 Ga magnetic signature, lies beneath the northern highlands. This geometry can be used to test models for the formation of the martian crustal dichotomy. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Gilmore, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Spectral Diagnostics for Early-Type Stars in Support of High-Resolution Satellite Observation

High-resolution X-ray spectra have recently been obtained using the Chandra X-ray Satellite Observatory for the two hot supergiant stars zeta Pup and delta Ori. The spectra show the presence of strong K-shell line emission from O, Ne, Mg, Si, and S, as well as strong L-shell line emission from Fe. Initial examination of the spectra indicates that the lines are significantly broader than what would be expected for a stationary plasma, and appear to be consistent with Doppler-broadened emission from hot plasma forming in shock-heated regions embedded in the wind (see Figure 1). Chandra has sufficient spectral resolution to study the velocity structure of isolated X-ray line profiles. Our analysis for zeta Pup has shown blue-shifted and skewed line profiles, providing the most direct evidence that the X-ray source is embedded in the stellar wind. The sensitivity of the He-like fir (forbidden-intercombination-resonance) lines to a strong UV radiation field is used to estimate the radial distances at which lines of O VII, Ne IX, Mg XI, Si XIII, and S XV originate.

MacFarlane, Joseph J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Multiple Spectral Components in Nearby Radio Galaxies

The purpose of this work was to study the complicated structures appearing in ROSAT PSPC observations of nearby radio galaxies through detailed spectroscopy using ASCA, and through combining spectroscopic and structural analyses. The galaxy studied in this work was NGC 6251, believed to have a composite structure based on our ROSAT PSPC analysis, with a strong, point-like, nonthermal core embedded in a weaker, group-scale, thermal halo. However, this simplest interpretation of the PSPC data (Birkinshaw & Worrall 1993; ApJ 412 568) is not unique. Other possibilities included strong thermal emission from the core, with an implied cooling flow. ASCA's spectroscopic capabilities were expected to resolve the ambiguity. When the ASCA data for NGC 6251 were received, we found (after resolving considerable difficulties with the calibration) that they are entirely consistent with a simple power-law interpretation, but that a strong intrinsic X-ray absorbing column is required in NGC 6251. This absorbing column can be identified with the neutral hydrogen found with the VLA (Birkinshaw & Worrall, 1994; BAAS, 25, 1432), and confirmed in a later, higher-resolution, VLA study.

Birkinshaw, M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Bi-Modal Pattern of the Summer Circulation Over South America

Submonthly variations in warm-season (January-February) precipitation over South America, in special over the Amazon basin, central southwest Brazil, north Argentina, and Paraguay are shown to be strongly linked to variations in the moisture entering the continent from the Atlantic ocean. Two distinct regimes of lower tropospheric winds (westerlies and easterlies) were observed in Rondonia during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) component of the Large Scale Atmosphere-Biosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaign. The westerly (easterly) winds were associated with the strong (weak) convective activity over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The whole period of this study (January-February) was divided into SACZ and NSACZ (No SACZ) events. The vertically integrated moisture fluxes over the Amazon and Prata basin from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (NASA/DAO) assimilation show that during SACZ (NSACZ) event strong (weak) convergence occurred over the Amazon basin with divergence (convergence) over the Prata basin. Submonthly variations in the SACZ also can be linked to extreme climate anomalies such as droughts or flooding conditions over the Amazon and Prata basin.

Herdies, Dirceu Luis↗
NASA NTRS2001

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Salby, Murry L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Correlation Studies of Sea Ice Concentration with Surface Temperature and Meltponding

The spatial and temporal variability of sea ice concentrations derived from passive microwave data is studied in conjunction with co-registered high resolution infrared and visible satellite data. Cloud free infrared and visible data provide surface temperature and large scale surface characteristics, respectively, that can be used to better understand regional and seasonal fluctuations in ice concentrations. Results from correlation analysis of ice concentration versus surface temperature data show the intuitively expected negative relationship but the strength in the relationship is unexpectedly very strong. In the Antarctic, the correlation is consistently very high spatially when yearly anomalies are used, and not so high in some areas when seasonal anomalies are used, especially during spring and summer. In the monthly anomalies, the correlation is also good, especially in dynamically active regions. The expanse in the anomalies in surface temperature are shown to go way beyond the sea ice regions into the open ocean and continental areas, suggesting strong atmospheric forcing. Weak correlations are normally found in highly consolidated areas, where large changes in temperature do not cause large changes in ice concentration on a short term, and in open ocean polynya areas, where the change in ice concentration may be cause by melt from the underside of the ice. In the Arctic, strong correlations between surface temperature and ice concentration are evident for all seasons except during the summer. In the summer, factors such as meltponding, surface wetness, and ice breakup, as detected by high resolution visible data, contributes to larger uncertainties in the determination of ice concentration and the lack of good correlation of the variables.

Comiso, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Correlation of the CME Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

From conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images, it is known qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions in which the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. In this paper, we present measurements from active-region vector magnetograms that begin to quantify the dependence of the CME productivity of an active region on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we obtain a measure of the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three different measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line; I(sub N), the net electric current arching from one polarity to the other; and alpha = muI(subN/phi), a flux-normalized measure of the field twist).

Falconer, David A.↗