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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 °N, 15 °N, 15 °S, and 30 °S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs. 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) comes with a wide range of possible design choices, such as the location and timing of the injection. Different stratospheric aerosol injection strategies can yield different climate responses; therefore, understanding the range of possible climate outcomes is crucial to making informed future decisions on SAI, along with the consideration of other factors. Yet, to date, there has been no systematic exploration of a broad range of SAI strategies. This limits the ability to determine which effects are robust across different strategies and which depend on specific injection choices. This study systematically explores how the choice of SAI strategy affects climate responses in one climate model. Here, we introduce four hemispherically symmetric injection strategies, all of which are designed to maintain the same global mean surface temperature: an annual injection at the Equator (EQ), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 15° N and 15° S (15N+15S), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 30° N and 30° S (30N+30S), and a polar injection strategy that injects equal amounts of SO 2 at 60° N and 60° S only during spring in each hemisphere (60N+60S). We compare these four hemispherically symmetric SAI strategies with a more complex injection strategy that injects different quantities of SO 2 at 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S in order to maintain not only the global mean surface temperature but also its large-scale horizontal gradients. All five strategies are simulated using version 2 of the Community Earth System Model with the middle atmosphere version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate model, version 6, as the atmospheric component, CESM2(WACCM6-MA), with the global warming scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5. We find that the choice of SAI strategy affects the spatial distribution of aerosol optical depths, injection efficiency, and various surface climate responses. In addition, injecting in the subtropics produces more global cooling per unit injection, with the EQ and the 60N+60S cases requiring, respectively, 59 % and 50 % more injection than the 30N+30S case to meet the same global mean temperature target. Injecting at higher latitudes results in larger Equator-to-pole temperature gradients. While all five strategies restore Arctic September sea ice, the high-latitude injection strategy is more effective due to the SAI-induced cooling occurring preferentially at higher latitudes. These results suggest trade-offs wherein different strategies appear better or worse, depending on which metrics are deemed important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of stratospheric temperature and height gradients from nimbus 3 radiation data

To improve the specification of stratospheric horizontal temperature and geopotential height fields from satellite radiation data, needed for high flying aircraft, a technique was derived to estimate data between satellite tracks using interpolated IRIS 15-micron data from Nimbus III. The interpolation is based on the observed gradients of the MRIR 15-micron radiances between subsatellite tracks. The technique was verified with radiosonde data taken within 6 hours of the satellite data. The sample varied from 1126 pairs at low levels to 383 pairs at 10 mb using northern hemisphere data for June 15 to July 20, 1969. The data were separated into five latitude bands. The Rms temperature differences were generally from 2 to 5 C for all levels above 300 mb. From 500 to 300 mb RMS differences vary from 4 to 9C except at high latitudes which show values near 3C. The RMS differences between radiosonde heights and those calculated hydrostatically from the surface were from 30 to 280 meters increasing from the surface to 10 mb. Integration starting at 100 mb reduced the RMS difference in the stratosphere to 20 to 120 meters from 70 to 10 mb. From a comparison with actual operational maps at 50 and 10 mb, it appears the techniques developed produce analyses in general agreement with those from radiosonde data. In addition, they are able to indicate details over areas of sparse data not shown by conventional techniques.

Nicholas, G. W.↗

Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.

Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.

Mcinturff, R. M.↗

Stratospheric thickness determined directly from satellite radiance measurements.

Discussion of the use of satellite radiance data for determining the thickness of deep stratospheric layers. Empirical regression equations are shown to provide better estimates of stratospheric thickness than do mean weighted temperatures obtained from the Planck equation. The best regression equations were found for thick layers emitting a substantial portion of the CO2-band infrared radiation measured by satellites. By adding the layer thickness to the observed height field for the lower boundary, it is possible to construct constant-pressure maps at very high altitudes.

Quiroz, R. S.↗

Direct determination of the thickness of stratospheric layers from single-channel satellite radiance measurements.

The direct use of measured radiances for determining the thickness of stratospheric layers is investigated. Layers based at 100-10 mb, with upper boundaries at 10-0.5 mb, are investigated using a carefully selected family of stratospheric temperature profiles and computed radiances. On the basis of physical reasoning, a high correlation of thickness with radiance is anticipated for deep layers, such as the 100- to 2-mb layer (from about 15 to 43 km), that emit a substantial part of the infrared energy reaching a satellite radiometer in a particular channel. Empirical regression curves relating thickness and radiance are developed and are compared with blackbody curves obtained by substituting the blackbody temperature in the hydrostatic equation. Maximum thickness-radiance correlation is found, for each infrared channel, for the layer having the best agreement of empirical and blackbody curves.

Quiroz, R. S.↗

Ablation debris and primary micrometeoroids in the stratosphere.

Analysis of micrometer-sized stratospheric particulates suggests that the majority of extraterrestrial material in the atmosphere is the product of ablation of larger bodies. Ablation debris is of considerable interest because of the possibility that much of it may have originated from classes of easily fragmented meteoroids that are incapable of surviving atmospheric entry to become meteorites. Comparison is made between the elemental abundance patterns found in stratospheric particulates and that found in fusion crusts of primitive meteorite types. Also discussed are criteria for distinguishing ablation products from primary unablated micrometeoroids.

Brownlee, D. E.↗

Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)

Investigations involved a search through existing literature and data to obtain case histories for the six or more stratospheric warmings that occurred in April - May 1969, June - July 1969, August 1969, December 1969 - January 1970, December 1970 - January 1971, and January 1973 - February 1973. For each of these warmings the following steps have been taken in preparation for analysis: (1) defining the nature of the problem; (2) literature search of stratwarmings and solar-terrestrial phenomens; and (3) file of data sources, especially stratospheric temperatures (radiances) and geophysical indices.

Source record↗

Lidar measurements of stratospheric aerosols over Menlo Park, California, October 1972 - March 1974

During an 18-month period, 30 nighttime observations of stratospheric aerosols were made using a ground based ruby lidar located near the Pacific coast of central California (37.5 deg. N, 122.2 deg. W). Vertical profiles of the lidar scattering ratio and the particulate backscattering coefficient were obtained by reference to a layer of assumed negligible particulate content. An aerosol layer centered near 21 km was clearly evident in all observations, but its magnitude and vertical distribution varied considerably throughout the observation period. A reduction of particulate backscattering in the 23- to 30-km layer during late January 1973 appears to have been associated with the sudden stratospheric warming which occurred at that time.

Russell, P. B.↗

The chemistry and diffusion of aircraft exhausts in the lower stratosphere during the first few hours after fly-by

An analysis of the hydrogen-nitrogen-oxygen reaction systems in the lower stratosphere as they are initially perturbed by individual aircraft engine exhaust plumes was conducted in order to determine whether any significant chemical reactions occur, either among exhaust chemical species, or between these species and the environmental ozone, while the exhaust products are confined to intact plume segments at relatively high concentrations. The joint effects of diffusive mixing and chemical kinetics on the reactions were also studied, using the techniques of second-order closure diffusion/chemistry models. The focus of the study was on the larger problem of the potential depletion of ozone by supersonic transport aircraft exhaust materials emitted into the lower stratosphere.

Hilst, G. R.↗

Stratospheric ozone destruction by man-made chlorofluoromethanes

Calculations indicate that chlorofluoromethanes produced by man can greatly affect the concentrations of stratospheric ozone in future decades. This effect follows the release of chlorine from these compounds in the stratosphere. Present usage levels of chlorofluoromethanes can lead to chlorine-catalyzed ozone destruction rates that will exceed natural sinks of ozone by 1985 or 1990.

Cicerone, R. J.↗

Dustsonde and lidar measurements of stratospheric aerosols - A comparison

Comparison of lidar and in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol profiles obtained by backscattered ruby laser light and by direct in situ sampling over Laramie, Wyoming, on two nights in mid-September 1972. The lidar backscattering and the particle number density profiles correlated well. Based on these initial comparative experiments, the ground-based lidar coupled with temperature soundings appears to be a possible method for determining the relative aerosol profile under given stratospheric loading conditions.

Northam, G. B.↗

Molecular fluorescence as a monitor of minor stratospheric constituents

The potential of molecular fluorescence was assessed as a stratospheric monitor of the concentrations of various minor species. Seventeen molecules were considered and all spectral regions from the vacuum ultraviolet through to the infrared are included. The exercise has produced few surprises; however, further confirmation has emerged as to the feasibility of this sensitive technique for monitoring stratospheric OH, NO2, and SO2, sufficient to warrant its development as analytical flight hardware for these species. All the other molecules have been eliminated with the exception of C10 which appears to have promise but requires additional information before its detection limit can be calculated; its fluorescence spectrum is as yet uninvestigated. A handbook for molecular fluorescence is presented, and a compilation of all reported studies for simple molecules using line source excitation is included.

Schofield, K.↗

A feasibility study for measuring stratospheric turbulence using metrac positioning system

The feasibility of obtaining measurements of Lagrangian turbulence at stratospheric altitudes is demonstrated by using the METRAC System to track constant-level balloons. The basis for current estimates of diffusion coefficients are reviewed and it is pointed out that insufficient data is available upon which to base reliable estimates of vertical diffusion coefficients. It is concluded that diffusion coefficients could be directly obtained from Lagrangian turbulence measurements. The METRAC balloon tracking system is shown to possess the necessary precision in order to resolve the response of constant-level balloons to turbulence at stratospheric altitudes. A small sample of data recorded from a tropospheric tetroon flight tracked by the METRAC System is analyzed to obtain estimates of small-scale three-dimensional diffusion coefficients. It is recommended that this technique be employed to establish a climatology of diffusion coefficients and to ascertain the variation of these coefficients with altitude, season, and latitude.

Gage, K. S.↗

Development of a stratospheric and mesospheric microwave temperature sounder experiment

A passive microwave spectrometer system for measuring global atmospheric temperature profiles from 0-75 km altitude was developed and analyzed. The system utilizes 12 channels near the 5 mm wavelength oxygen absorption band and is designed to provide global coverage by scanning perpendicular to the orbital track of a polar orbiting satellite. A significant improvement in the accuracy of theoretical atmospheric microwave transmittance functions was achieved through the development of a first-order approximation to overlapping line theory for the oxygen molecule. This approximation is particularly important in the troposphere and lower stratosphere where pressure-broadening blends nearby lines. Ground-based and aircraft observations of several resonances of stratospheric oxygen generally support the theory. The 23, 25, 29, and 31 atmospheric oxygen lines were measured and the frequencies of several such oxygen lines were measured with improved precision. The polarization and Zeeman splitting of the atmospheric 27 line was also observed.

Staelin, D. H.↗

Analysis of data from spacecraft relating to stratospheric warmings

A detailed study of six different stratospheric warmings is described which establishes that the magnetic indices AE, Ap, and Dst display a marked increase 1 to 3 days before warming phenomena and a marked decrease at 0 and -4 days. The definite correlation of the warming phenomena with the AE index indicates that the auroral electrojet joule heating near 100 km may be the original source of the heating that influences the atmosphere at 50 km and below. Whether this heating is the primary cause or trigger of stratospheric warmings remains to be determined.

Weiss, R.↗

An assessment of the potential impact of solid-fueled rocket engines in the stratosphere

The effects of shuttle-emitted HCl on stratospheric ozone are reported. A one-dimensional model of the distribution of trace constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere is described, and chemical reactions and photodissociation rates in the chlorine chemistry are listed. Analysis of mathematical models is presented, and the results show ozone depletion when emissions are considered to be spread uniformly in the horizontal over a hemisphere and an increase in ozone when emissions are considered in a zone 1000 km wide centered at Cape Kennedy. Sensitivity studies to determine the effects of some assumptions in the model and comparisons with nitric oxide reactions are described. The importance of a two-dimensional model for a proper long term study is noted. Lists of reaction rate coefficients and photodissociation rates for the O-H-N system are included.

Whitten, R. C.↗