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The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: pairwise-inverse probability and angular correction for fibre collisions in clustering measurements

ABSTRACT The completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) catalogues contain redshifts of 344 080 quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2, 174 816 luminous red galaxies between 0.6 < z < 1.0, and 173 736 emission-line galaxies over 0.6 < z < 1.1 in order to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the growth rate of structure through clustering measurements. Mechanical limitations of the fibre-fed spectrograph on the Sloan telescope prevent two fibres being placed closer than 62 arcsec in a single pass of the instrument. These ‘fibre collisions’ strongly correlate with the intrinsic clustering of targets and can bias measurements of the two-point correlation function resulting in a systematic error on the inferred values of the cosmological parameters. We combine the new techniques of pairwise-inverse probability and the angular upweighting (PIP+ANG) to correct the clustering measurements for the effect of fibre collisions. Using mock catalogues, we show that our corrections provide unbiased measurements, within data precision, of both the projected $\rm {\mathit{ w}_p}\left(\mathit{ r}_p\right)$ and the redshift-space multipole ξ(ℓ = 0, 2, 4)(s) correlation functions down to $0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, regardless of the tracer type. We apply the corrections to the eBOSS DR16 catalogues. We find that, on scales $s\gtrsim 20\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ for ξℓ, as used to make baryon acoustic oscillation and large-scale redshift-space distortion measurements, approximate methods such as nearest-neighbour upweighting are sufficiently accurate given the statistical errors of the data. Using the PIP method, for the first time for a spectroscopic program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we are able to successfully access the one-halo term in the clustering measurements down to $\sim 0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ scales. Our results will therefore allow studies that use the small-scale clustering to strengthen the constraints on both cosmological parameters and the halo occupation distribution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sea level variation

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Douglas, Bruce C.↗

Skeletal Phenotype of Transgenic Mice Expressing the Beta1 Integrin Cytoplasmic Tail In Osteoblasts

To define the physiologic role of beta1 integrin in bone formation and mechanical loading, transgenic mice were generated by expressing the cytoplasmic tall and transmembrane domain of Beta1 integrin under the control of the osteocalcin promoter. In cultured cells, this truncated fragment of Beta1 can act as a dominant negative. Previously, the matrix of calvariae was shown to be abnormal in transgenic (TG) compared to wildtype (WT) mice. In this study, we analyzed appendicular bone in TG and WT, male and female mice at 14, 35, 63, 90 and 365 days old (n=8-12/gp). To assess beta1 integrin function in mechanical loading, a pilot study using hindlimb unloading by tail suspension was performed. 35d old TG and WT females were hindlimb unloaded for 4 wks (n=3-5). Body mass, bone mineral content, histomorphometric (distal femur) and biomechanical parameters were analyzed. Statistical significance (P less than.05) was defined by ANOVA using the Tukey-Kramer post-hoc test. We confirmed transgene expression by immunoprecipitating then immunoblotting bone lysates using an antibody against the beta1 tail. Body masses of TG mice at 63, 90 and 365d old were greater (16-25%) than WT. Some TG female mice at 365d appeared obese; mean abdominal fat mass was 415% greater in TG than WT mice. Tibiae were longer (5-7%) in TG than WT mice at 63 and 90d. Tibial mineral mass of 35d males was 7% lower in TG than WT mice, but at 63d was 21% higher. The % osteoblast surface in 35d TG mice was 20% higher than WT, and at 63d was 17% lower, while % osteoclast surface did not differ. In 365d mice, cancellous bone volume (125%) and endocortical mineral apposition rate (40%) were greater in TG than WT males but not females. In WT mice, hindlimb unloading caused a reduction in mineral mass of tibiae (-20%) and lumbar vertebrae (-22%) relative to normally loaded controls. Surprisingly, hindlimb unloading also caused a relative reduction (-13%) in humerus mass. The effects of hindlimb unloading on tibia and humerus mass were less obvious in TG than in WT mice. Since hindlimb unloading caused skeletal changes in both loaded and unloaded bones, systemic changes may contribute to bone responses observed using this animal model. In conclusion, transgene expression resulted in marked metabolic changes during growth and in the aged female. Our results demonstrate that expression of the Beta1 integrin cytoplasmic tail in vivo causes gender- and age-specific changes in select morphometric parameters, bone length, and bone mass.

Globus, R. K.↗

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamics and structure of turbulent premixed flames

In earlier work (Mantel & Bilger, 1994) the structure of the turbulent premixed flame was investigated using statistics based on conditional averaging with the reaction progress variable as the conditioning variable. The DNS data base of Trouve and Poinsot (1994) was used in this investigation. Attention was focused on the conditional dissipation and conditional axial velocity in the flame with a view to modeling these quantities for use in the conditional moment closure (CMC) approach to analysis of kinetics in premixed flames (Bilger, 1993). Two remarkable findings were made: there was almost no acceleration of the axial velocity in the flame front itself; and the conditional scalar dissipation remained as high, or higher, than that found in laminar premixed flames. The first finding was surprising since in laminar flames all the fluid acceleration occurs through the flame front, and this could be expected also for turbulent premixed flames at the flamelet limit. The finding gave hope of inventing a new approach to the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames through use of rapid distortion theory or an unsteady Bernoulli equation. This could lead to a new second order closure for turbulent premixed flames. The second finding was contrary to our measurements with laser diagnostics in lean hydrocarbon flames where it is found that conditional scalar dissipation drops dramatically below that for laminar flamelets when the turbulence intensity becomes high. Such behavior was not explainable with a one-step kinetic model, even at non-unity Lewis number. It could be due to depletion of H2 from the reaction zone by preferential diffusion. The capacity of the flame to generate radicals is critically dependent on the levels of H2 present (Bilger, et al., 1991). It seemed that a DNS computation with a multistep reduced mechanism would be worthwhile if a way could be found to make this feasible. Truly innovative approaches to complex problems often come only when there is the opportunity to work close at hand with the (in this case numerical) experimental data. Not only can one spot patterns and relationships in the data which could be important, but one can also get to know the limitations of the technique being used, so that when the next experiment is being designed it will address resolvable questions. A three-year grant from the Australian Research Council has enabled us to develop a small capability at the University of Sydney to work on DNS of turbulent reacting flow, and to analyze data bases generated at CTR. Collaboration between the University of Sydney and CTR is essential to this project and finding a workable modus operandum for this collaboration, given the constraints involved, has been a major objective of the past year's effort. The overall objectives of the project are: (1) to obtain a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames at high turbulence levels with a view to developing improved second order closure models; and (2) to carry out new DNS experiments on turbulent premixed flames using a carefully chosen multistep reduced mechanism for the chemical kinetics, with a view to elucidating the laser diagnostic findings that are contrary to the findings for DNS using one-step kinetics. In this first year the objectives have been to make the existing CTR data base more accessible to coworkers at the University of Sydney, to make progress on understanding the dynamics of the flame in this existing CTR data base, and to carefully construct a suitable multistep reduced mechanism for use in a new set of DNS experiments on turbulent premixed flames.

Bilger, R. W.↗

Mechanical Stress and Antioxidant Protection in the Retina of Hindlimb Suspended Rats

It has been postulated that hindlimb suspension (HS) causes a cephalad fluid shift in quadrupeds similar to that occurring to humans in microgravity. Therefore, HS may provide a suitable animal model in which to recapitulate the ocular changes observed in the human Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. This work reports preliminary results from a tissue sharing project using 34 week-old Brown Norway rats. Two different experiments compared normal posture controls and HS rats for 2 weeks and rats exposed to HS for 2 weeks but allowed to recover in normal posture for 2 additional weeks. The effects of two nutritional countermeasures, green tea extract (GT) and plant polyphenol resveratrol (Rv), were also evaluated. Green tea contains the antioxidant epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG). qPCR gene expression analysis of selected targets was performed on RNA from isolated retinas, and histologic analysis was done on one fixed eye per rat. The transcription factor early growth response protein 1 (Egr1) was upregulated almost 2-fold in HS retinas relative to controls (P = 0.059), and its expression returned to control levels after 2 weeks of recovery in normal posture (P = 0.023). HS-induced upregulation of Egr1 was attenuated (but not significantly) in retinas from rats fed an antioxidant rich (GT extract) diet. In rats fed the GT-enriched diet, antioxidant enzymes were induced, evidenced by the upregulation of the gene heme oxygenase 1 (Hmox1) (P = 0.042) and the gene superoxide dismutase 2 (Sod2) (P = 0.0001). Egr1 is a stretch-activated transcription factor, and the Egr1 mechanosensitive response to HS may have been caused by a change in the translaminal pressure and/or mechanical deformation of the eye globe. The observed histologic measurements of the various retinal layers in the HS rats were lower in value than those of the control animal (n = 1), however insufficient data were available for statistical analysis. Aquaporin 4, a water-selective channel involved in interstitial fluid homeostasis, showed an upregulated trend in HS retinas; however, these results are preliminary. Total retinal thickness increased significantly (P = 0.049) in HS rats fed a resveratrol enriched diet compared to HS rats on a normal diet. This change appeared to be reversed during the 2 weeks of recovery post HS, but no differences in retina thickness were observed between HS animals and HS recovered animals when both groups consumed a normal diet. The reversibility of the increase in retinal thickness induced by resveratrol during HS may therefore reflect an interaction between the stress provoked by HS and the cytoprotective mechanisms elicited by resveratrol

Glass, Aziza↗

Segmental Dynamics and Vitrification in Associating Copolymer Melts: Role of Cluster Formation, Microdomains, and Cross-Linking

A microscopic statistical mechanical theory of the structure, self-assembly, and activated segmental relaxation is employed to study associating copolymer melts with high attractive sticker fractions, local clustering, and disordered microphase ordering. The stickers are dynamically pinned in a manner that does not affect equilibrium structure which mimics the much slower physical bond breaking process or postassembly cross-linking of sticky monomers. Local sticker clustering and microdomain spatial correlations significantly modify the activated relaxation of nonstickers and glass transition temperature, T g . A re-entrant glass-melting feature is predicted as sticker attraction strength is initially increased corresponding to a speed up of segmental relaxation, and hence reduction of T g relative to the cross-linked homopolymer network. A mechanistic analysis reveals three competing effects: a purely kinetic slowing down of nonstickers down due to cross-linking, disordering of the nonsticker local cage and weakening of effective forces they experience due to sticker physical clustering, and a longer range impact of microdomain scale correlations that results in nonmonotonic dynamical effects. At high enough attraction strength, a qualitative change emerges corresponding to a sticker fraction dependent elevation of T g , which eventually surpasses that of the cross-linked homopolymer network. Dynamically, the new physics arises from a complex evolution of the amplitude of the collective elastic field that dresses the large amplitude mobile segment hopping within a coupled local-nonlocal description of the alpha relaxation. Furthermore, the results are qualitatively consistent with recent experiments on associating PDMS and PPG telechelics of fixed sticker fraction but with chemically different end groups of variable attraction strengths. Finally, possible tests using simulation and the influence of material or model specific interaction potentials and other real world complications are discussed.

Copolymers↗

Asymmetric temperature equilibration with heat flow from cold to hot in a quantum thermodynamic system

A model computational quantum thermodynamic network is constructed with two variable temperature baths coupled by a linker system, with an asymmetry in the coupling of the linker to the two baths. It is found in computational simulations that the baths come to “thermal equilibrium” at different bath energies and temperatures. In a sense, heat is observed to flow from cold to hot. Additionally, a description is given in which a recently defined quantum entropy S univ Q for a pure state “universe” continues to increase after passing through the classical equilibrium point of equal temperatures, reaching a maximum at the asymmetric equilibrium. Thus, a second law account Δ S univ Q ≥ 0 holds for the asymmetric quantum process. In contrast, a von Neumann entropy description fails to uphold the entropy law, with a maximum near when the two temperatures are equal, then a decrease Δ S v N < 0 on the way to the asymmetric equilibrium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Physics-informed Karhunen-Loeve and Neural Network Approximations for Solving Inverse Differential Equation Problems

Here we present the PI-CKL-NN method for parameter estimation in differential equation (DE) models given sparse measurements of the parameters and states. In the proposed approach, the space- or time-dependent parameters are approximated by Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansions that are conditioned on the parameters’ measurements, and the states are approximated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The unknown weights in the KL expansions and DNNs are found my minimizing the cost function that enforces the measurements of the states the DE constraint. Regularization is achieved by adding the l2 norm of the conditional KL coefficients into the loss function. Our approach assumes that the parameter fields are correlated in space or time and enforces the statistical knowledge (the mean and the covariance function) in addition to the DE constraints and measurements as opposed to the physics-informed neural network (PINN) and other similar physics-informed machine learning methods where only DE constraints and data are used for parameter estimation. We use the PI-CKL-NN method for parameter estimation in an ordinary differential equation with an unknown time-dependent parameter and the one- and two-dimensional partial differential diffusion equations with unknown space-dependent diffusion coefficients. We also demonstrate that PI-CKL-NN is more accurate than the PINN method, especially when the observations of the parameters are very sparse

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Macroscopic Thermodynamic Reversibility in Quantum Many-Body Systems

The resource theory of thermal operations, an established model for small-scale thermodynamics, provides an extension of equilibrium thermodynamics to nonequilibrium situations. On a lattice of any dimension with any translation-invariant local Hamiltonian, we identify a large set of translation-invariant states that can be reversibly converted to and from the thermal state with thermal operations and a small amount of coherence. These are the spatially ergodic states, i.e., states that have sharp statistics for any translation-invariant observable, and mixtures of such states with the same thermodynamic potential. As an intermediate result, we show for a general state that if the gap between the min- and the max-relative entropies to the thermal state is small, then the state can be approximately reversibly converted to and from the thermal state with thermal operations and a small source of coherence. Our proof provides a quantum version of the Shannon-McMillan-Breiman theorem for the relative entropy and a quantum Stein’s lemma for ergodic states and local Gibbs states. In this work, our results provide a strong link between the abstract resource theory of thermodynamics and more realistic physical systems as we achieve a robust and operational characterization of the emergence of a thermodynamic potential in translation-invariant lattice systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A generalized Flory-Stockmayer kinetic theory of connectivity percolation and rigidity percolation of cytoskeletal networks

Actin networks are essential for living cells to move, reproduce, and sense their environments. The dynamic and rheological behavior of actin networks is modulated by actin-binding proteins such as α-actinin, Arp2/3, and myosin. There is experimental evidence that actin-binding proteins modulate the cooperation of myosin motors by connecting the actin network. In this work, we present an analytical mean field model, using the Flory-Stockmayer theory of gelation, to understand how different actin-binding proteins change the connectivity of the actin filaments as the networks are formed. We follow the kinetics of the networks and estimate the concentrations of actin-binding proteins that are needed to reach connectivity percolation as well as to reach rigidity percolation. We find that Arp2/3 increases the actomyosin connectivity in the network in a non-monotonic way. We also describe how changing the connectivity of actomyosin networks modulates the ability of motors to exert forces, leading to three possible phases of the networks with distinctive dynamical characteristics: a sol phase, a gel phase, and an active phase. Thus, changes in the concentration and activity of actin-binding proteins in cells lead to a phase transition of the actin network, allowing the cells to perform active contraction and change their rheological properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗

Do not forget the electrons: Extending moderately-sized nuclear networks for multidimensional hydrodynamic codes

Context.Nuclear networks are widely used coupled with hydrodynamical simulations of explosive scenarios to account for the change of nuclear species and energy generation rate due to nuclear reactions. In this way, there is a feedback mechanism between the hydrodynamical state and the nuclear processes. Unfortunately, the timescale of nuclear reactions is orders of magnitude smaller than the dynamical timescale that drives hydrodynamical simulations. Therefore, these nuclear networks are usually very small, reduced in most cases to a dozen elements, especially when simulations are carried out in more than one dimension. Aims.We present here an extended nuclear network, with 90 species, designed for being coupled with hydrodynamic simulations, which includes neutrons, protons, electrons, positrons, and the corresponding neutrino and anti-neutrino emission. This network is also coupled with temperature, making it extremely robust and, together with its size, unique of its kind. The inclusion of electron captures on free protons makes the network very appropriate for multidimensional studies of Type Ia supernova explosions, especially when the exploding object is a massive white dwarf. Methods.We perform several tests that are relevant to simulate explosive scenarios, such as Type Ia supernovae and core-collapse supernovae. We compare the results of the 90 nuclei network with a standardα-chain network with 14 elements to evaluate the differences in the energy generation rate. We also evaluate the relevance of including the electrons in the network in terms of generated yields and how it affects the pressure of a degenerate fluid such as that of white dwarfs. The results obtained with the 90-nuclei network have been verified with a much larger 2000-nuclei network built from REACLIB (WinNet), in terms of nuclear energy generation rate, pressure, and produced yields. Results.The results obtained with the proposed medium-sized network compare fairly well, to a few percent, with those computed withWinNetin scenarios reproducing the gross physical conditions of current Type Ia supernova explosion models. In those cases where the carbon and oxygen fuel ignites at high density, the high-temperature plateau typical of the nuclear statistical equilibrium regime is well defined and stable, allowing large integration time steps. We show that the inclusion of electron captures on free protons substantially improves the estimation of the electron fraction of the mixture. Therefore, the pressure is better determined than in networks where electron captures are excluded, which will ultimately lead to more reliable hydrodynamic models. Explosive combustion of helium at low density, occurring near the surface layer of a white dwarf, is also better described with the proposed network, which gives nuclear energy generation rates much closer toWinNetthan typical reduced alpha networks. Conclusions.A nuclear network withN= 90 species, including electrons, aimed at multidimensional calculations of supernova explosions is described and verified. The proposed network is suitable for the study of Type Ia supernova explosions because it provides better values of pressure and electron abundance than other existing networks with smaller or even a similar size but without including electron capture processes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Many-Body Scars as a Group Invariant Sector of Hilbert Space

We present a class of Hamiltonians H for which a sector of the Hilbert space invariant under a Lie group G, which is not a symmetry of H, possesses the essential properties of many-body scar states. These include the absence of thermalization and the “revivals” of special initial states in time evolution. Here, a particular class of examples concerns interacting spin-1/2 fermions on a lattice consisting of N sites (it includes deformations of the Fermi-Hubbard model as special cases), and we show that it contains two families of N + 1 scar states. One of these families, which was found in recent literature, comprises the well-known η-pairing states. We find another family of scar states that is U(N) invariant. Both families and most of the group-invariant scar states produced by our construction, in general, give rise to the off-diagonal long range order, which survives at high temperatures and is insensitive to the details of the dynamics. Such states could be used for reliable quantum information processing because the information is stored nonlocally and thus cannot be easily erased by local perturbations. In contrast, other scar states we find are product states, which could be easily prepared experimentally. The dimension of scar subspace is directly controlled by the choice of group G and can be made exponentially large.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hyaloscypha finlandica Metabolome Repository

This repository provides the curated data tables, manuscript figure and table exports, dependency records, and workflow scripts supporting an integrated comparative genomics and untargeted LC-MS/MS metabolomics analysis of Hyaloscypha finlandica strain PMI 746, a root-associated dark septate endophyte of poplar. The repository includes genome-mining summaries from antiSMASH, FunBGCeX, BGC-Prophet, and BiG-SCAPE; processed metabolomics inputs; metabolite annotation evidence; statistical outputs; and publication-facing figures and tables. Raw LC-MS/MS spectra, full genome/protein downloads, and large generated tool outputs are referenced through public archive/accession records and are not stored in Git.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗