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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Dynamic Amplification of Subtropical Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Projected precipitation changes in a warming climate vary considerably, spatially, and between intensities. The changes can be greater or less than the ~7% K -1 Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) prediction, owing to dynamic effects. Using two global-climate-model large ensembles, we quantify the dynamically induced changes to precipitation extremes from the present (1996–2005) to late-21st-century (2071–2080) climates, as a function of recurrence interval, focusing on the subtropics. We separate non-CC changes into a term proportional to the present-day vertical-velocity spatial pattern (i.e., an amplification or damping thereof by a constant factor) and a residual. The amplitude term varies with recurrence interval, approximately canceling (doubling) CC for moderate (large) extremes, increasing precipitation variability. Contrastingly, the residual is quasi-uniform across recurrence intervals but spatially heterogeneous, weakening extremes over dry zones. This residual may be related to Hadley cell expansion, although this explanation is insufficient to explain many features, and other possible mechanisms are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting multi‐scale riverine topographic variability and its influence on Chinook salmon habitat selection

Abstract Quantifying geomorphic conditions that impact riverine ecosystems is critical in river management due to degraded riverine habitat, changing flow and thermal conditions, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Geomorphic complexity at different scales directly impacts habitat heterogeneity and affects aquatic biodiversity resilience. Here we showed that the combination of continuous spatial survey at high resolution, topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and continuous wavelet analysis can help identify and characterize that complexity. We used a continuous wavelet analysis on 1‐m resolution topobathymetry in three rivers in the Salmon River Basin, Idaho (USA), to identify different scales of topographic variability and the potential effects of this variability on salmonid redd site selection. On each river, wavelet scales characterized the topographic variability by portraying repeating patterns in the longitudinal profile. We found three major representative spatial wavelet scales of topographic variability in each river: a small wavelet scale associated with local morphology such as pools and riffles, a mid‐wavelet scale that identified larger channel unit features, and a large wavelet scale related to valley‐scale controls. The small wavelet scale was used to identify pools and riffles along the entire lengths of each river as well as areas with differing riffle‐pool development. Areas along the rivers with high local topographic variability (high wavelet power) at all wavelet scales contained the largest features (i.e., deepest or longest pools) in the systems. By comparing the wavelet power for each wavelet scale to Chinook salmon redd locations, we found that higher small‐scale wavelet power, which is related to pool‐riffle topography, is important for redd site selection. The continuous wavelet methodology objectively identified scales of topographic variability present in these rivers, performed efficient channel‐unit identification, and provided geomorphic assessment without laborious field surveys.

Duffin, Jenna↗

Evaluating proxy influence in assimilated paleoclimate reconstructions – Testing the exchangeability of two ensembles of spatial processes

Climate field reconstructions (CFR) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data Assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new means of deriving CFRs that optimally fuse climate proxies with climate model output. Despite the growing application of DA-based CFRs, little is understood about how much the assimilated proxies change the statistical properties of the climate model data. To address this question, we propose a robust and computationally efficient method, based on functional data depth, to evaluate differences in the distributions of two spatiotemporal processes. In this study, we apply our test to study global and regional proxy influence in DA-based CFRs by comparing the background and analysis states, which are treated as two samples of spatiotemporal fields. We find that the analysis states are significantly altered from the climate-model-based background states due to the assimilation of proxies. Moreover, the difference between the analysis and background states increases with the number of proxies, even in regions far beyond proxy collection sites. Our approach allows us to characterize the added value of proxies, indicating where and when the analysis states are distinct from the background states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entanglement structures in quantum field theories: Negativity cores and bound entanglement in the vacuum

Here, the many-body entanglement between two finite (size-d) disjoint vacuum regions of noninteracting lattice scalar field theory in one spatial dimension, i.e., a (d A × d B ) mixed Gaussian continuous variable system, is locally transformed into a tensor-product core of (1 A × 1 B ) mixed entangled pairs. Accessible entanglement within these core pairs exhibits an exponential hierarchy and as such identifies the structure of dominant region modes from which vacuum entanglement could be extracted into a spatially separated pair of quantum detectors. Beyond the core, the remaining modes of the halo are determined to be AB separable in isolation, as well as separable from the core. However, state preparation protocols that distribute entanglement in the form of (1 A × 1 B ) mixed core pairs are found to require additional entanglement in the halo that is obscured by classical correlations. This inaccessible (bound) halo entanglement is found to mirror the accessible entanglement, but with a step behavior as the continuum is approached. It remains possible that alternate initialization protocols that do not utilize the exponential hierarchy of core-pair entanglement may require less inaccessible entanglement. Entanglement consolidation is expected to persist in higher dimensions and may aid classical and quantum simulations of asymptotically free gauge field theories, such as quantum chromodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Heterogeneity of the Dominant Causes of Performance Loss in End-of-Life Cathodes and Their Consequences for Direct Recycling

Recycling Li-ion batteries from electric vehicles is critical for reducing costs and supporting the development of a domestic battery supply chain. Direct recycling of cathodes, like LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC), is attractive due to its low cost, energy use, and emissions compared to traditional recycling techniques. However, a comprehensive understanding of the active material properties at end-of-life is needed to guide direct recycling processes and the performance-dependent reuse applications. Here, NMC material from an end-of-life commercial pouch cell is characterized and bench-marked against pristine non-cycled counterparts with respect to capacity, impedance, crystallography, morphology, and microstructure to identify major degradation modes and understand variability in the end-of-life material. The spatial heterogeneity of each property throughout the cell is also quantified. While the degraded material demonstrated similar capacity as the pristine, its impedance and rate capability are severely diminished. Furthermore, samples from the periphery of the electrode layers showed more severe performance loss compared to samples extracted from central regions. The dominant culprit of performance loss is the material microstructure, where the magnitude of particle cracking showed the strongest correlation to the impedance components that are most unfavorably impacted. This work suggests severe cracks in cathode active materials are the primary challenge that direct recycling methods must overcome.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Semi-numerical solution to a fractal telegraphic dual-porosity fluid flow model

We present a semi-numerical solution to a fractal telegraphic dual-porosity fluid flow model. It combines Laplace transform and finite difference schemes. The Laplace transform handles the time variable whereas the finite difference method deals with the spatial coordinate. This semi-numerical scheme is not restricted by space discretization and allows the computation of a solution at any time without compromising numerical stability or the mass conservation principle. Our formulation results in a non-analytically-solvable second-order differential equation whose spatial discretization yields a tridiagonal linear algebraic system. Moreover, we describe comparisons between semi-numerical and semi-analytical solutions for particular cases. Results agree well with those from semi-analytic solutions. Furthermore, we expose a parametric analysis from the coupled model in order to show the effects of relevant parameters on pressure profiles and flow rates for the case where neither analytic nor semi-analytic solutions are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bio-reduction of ferrihydrite-montmorillonite-organic matter complexes: Effect of montmorillonite and fate of organic matter

Organic matter (OM) is often associated with Fe (hydr)oxides such as ferrihydrite (Fh) in soils and sediments, forming binary Fh-OM complexes. Microbial reduction of Fh results in destabilization of the complexes and mineral/OM transformation. However, little is known about the role of clay minerals in such processes, despite their common co-existence with Fh and OM in natural environments. Here Fh-OM complexes were synthesized in the presence of montmorillonite (SWy-2), forming ternary Fh-(SWy-2)-OM complexes. A metal-reducing bacterium Geobacter sulfurreducens was used to reduce Fh in the complexes under circumneutral pH and anoxic conditions with or without H 2 as extra electron donor. Various spectroscopy and mass spectrometry methods were used to monitor the progress of Fh bio-reduction and mineral/OM transformation. Results showed that G. sulfurreducens utilized mineral-bound OM as electron donor and/or carbon source to couple with Fh reduction. Relative to Fh-OM complex, Addition of SWy-2 to Fh-OM complex enhanced the bio-reduction extent of Fh by increasing the proportion of bioavailable OM that was weakly bound to SWy-2. However, its effect on the bio-reduction rate was variable. SWy-2 initially decreased the rate, because it spatially separated OM (electron donor) from Fh (electron acceptor). During later incubation, SWy-2 increased the reduction rate by sorbing biogenic Fe 2+ that would otherwise passivate the Fh and cell surfaces. Bio-reduction transformed mineral-bound OM to microbial products (e.g. necromass, extracellular polymeric substances), but organic compounds with aromatic structures, carboxyl groups and large molecular weight were more resistant to desorption and oxidation. The persistence of these compounds against bio-reduction induced transformation is likely due to their stronger binding with minerals and/or lower nominal oxidation states of carbon relative to other compounds. Our results provide new insights into the role of clay minerals in regulating biogeochemical cycling of solid-phase Fe and transformation of mineral-associated OM in anoxic soil environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Single-shot ultrafast dynamics of nanosecond pulsed plasmas: Transition from ps–ns nonequilibrium to near-full ionization

The ultrafast multi-stage evolution of state-defining properties in atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas is quantified using single-discharge, jitter-free, continuous streak-sweep spectroscopy of N 2 (C → B) molecular and N + /O + ionic species with a single-shot time resolution as short as ∼160 ps. An early period of extreme nonequilibrium is observed with vibrational temperatures [T V (C)] dropping from ∼8000 K at <200 ps after plasma breakdown to <4000 K within ∼1 ns, with near-ambient rotational temperatures [T R (C)] ∼ 300 K due to limited collisional energy transfer. This early-time T V (C) trend is representative of a direct and unquenched look into the high-energy tail of the electron energy distribution function; thus, it tracks real-time changes in the mean electron energy via the N2(C) emission signatures. This is followed by the rapid onset of N + /O + ionic emission after a distinct time delay of ∼14.9 ns due to multistep chemical kinetics. The ionic emission enables determination of electron densities (n e ) >2 × 10 19 cm −3 and electron temperatures (T e ) >36 000 K, indicating the transition to a nearly fully ionized regime. The ps–ns temporal dynamics are also compared between air and N 2 plasmas to assess the influence of collisional partners, as well as across the anode, cathode, and central gap regions to identify spatial variations in plasma behavior. Finally, this work demonstrates versatile continuously probing approach capable of spectro-temporal and spatially resolved single-shot measurements of key state variables in the ps–ns evolution of atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas.

Electric discharges↗

INTERFEROMETRIC VISIBILITY OF A SCINTILLATING SOURCE: STATISTICS AT THE NYQUIST LIMIT

We derive the distribution of interferometric visibility for a source exhibiting strong diffractive scintillation, with particular attention to spectral resolution at or near the Nyquist limit. We also account for arbitrary temporal averaging, intrinsic variability within the averaging time, and the possibility of spatially extended source emission. We demonstrate that the interplay between scintillation and self-noise induces several remarkable features, such as a broad ''skirt'' in the visibility distribution. Our results facilitate the interpretation of interferometric observations of pulsars at meter and decimeter wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Confined-exotic-matter wormholes with no gluing effects—Imaging supermassive wormholes and black holes

We classify wormholes endowed with redshift effects and finite mass into three types. Type I wormholes have their radial pressure dying out faster, as one moves away from the throat, than any other component of the stress-energy and thus violate the least the local energy conditions. In type II (resp. III) wormholes the radial and transverse pressures are asymptotically proportional and die out faster (resp. slower) than the energy density. We introduce a novel and generalizable method for deriving, with no cutoff in the stress-energy or gluing, a class of each of the three wormhole types. We focus on type I wormholes and construct different asymptotically flat solutions with finite, upper- and lower-bounded, mass M. It is observed that the radial pressure is negative, and the null energy condition is violated, only inside a narrow layer, adjacent to the throat, of relative spacial extent ε. Reducing the relative size of the layer, without harming the condition of traversability, yields an inverse square law of ε versus M for supermassive wormholes. We show that the diameter of the shadow of this type I supermassive wormhole overlaps with that of the black hole candidate at the center of the Milky Way and that the recent derivation, using the up-to-date millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry made in Astrophys. J. (795) (2014) 134 [\arXivid(1409.4690)], remains inconclusive. We show that redshift-free wormholes, with positive energy density, have one of their barotropic equations of state in the phantom regime (at least in the region adjacent to the throat), have their stress energy tensor traceless, and are anisotropic. They are all type III wormholes having their variable equations of state approaching 1 and −1 at spatial infinity. We also introduce a new approach for deriving new redshift-free wormholes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Density profile of dynamical halos

Among the most fundamental properties of a dark matter halo is its density profile. Motivated by the recent proposal by García et al . [Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 521 , 2464 (2023)] to define a dynamical halo as the collection of orbiting particles in a gravitationally bound structure, we characterize the mean and scatter of the orbiting profile of dynamical halos as a function of their orbiting mass. Here, we demonstrate that the orbiting profile of individual halos at fixed mass depends on a single dynamical variable, the halo radius 𝑟 h , which characterizes the spatial extent of the profile. The scatter in halo radius at fixed orbiting mass is ≈16%. Only a small fraction of this scatter arises due to differences in halo formation time, with late-forming halos being more compact (smaller halo radii). Accounting for this additional correlation results in an ≈11% scatter in halo radius at fixed mass and halo formation time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Multigrid Reduction-in-Time for Advection via Modified Semi-Lagrangian Coarse-Grid Operators

Many iterative parallel-in-time algorithms have been shown to be highly efficient for diffusion-dominated partial differential equations (PDEs) but are inefficient or even divergent when applied to advection-dominated PDEs. We consider the application of the multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm to linear advection PDEs. Here, the key to efficient time integration with this method is using a coarse-grid operator that provides a sufficiently accurate approximation to the so-called ideal coarse-grid operator. For certain classes of semi-Lagrangian discretizations, we present a novel semi-Lagrangian-based coarse-grid operator that leads to fast and scalable multilevel time integration of linear advection PDEs. The coarse-grid operator is composed of a semi-Lagrangian discretization followed by a correction term, with the correction designed so that the leading-order truncation error of the composite operator is approximately equal to that of the ideal coarse-grid operator. Parallel results show substantial speed-ups over sequential time integration for variable-wave-speed advection problems in one and two spatial dimensions, and using high-order discretizations up to order five. The proposed approach establishes the first practical method that provides small and scalable MGRIT iteration counts for advection problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrated Canada-U.S. Power Sector Modeling with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

The electric power system in North America is linked between the United States and Canada. Canada has historically been a net exporter of electricity to the United States. The extent to which this remains true will depend on the future evolution of power markets, technology deployment, and policies. To evaluate these and related questions, we modify the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to include an explicit representation of the grid-connected power system in Canada to the continental United States. ReEDS is unique among long-term capacity expansion models for its high spatial resolution and statistical treatment of the impact of variable renewable generation on capacity planning and dispatch. These unique traits are extended to new Canadian regions. We present example scenario results using the fully integrated Canada-U.S. version of ReEDS to demonstrate model capabilities. The newly developed, integrated Canada-U.S. ReEDS model can be used to analyze the dynamics of electricity transfers and other grid services between the two countries under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Grain-scale Heterogeneity on Mechanical Response

Driven by the exceedingly high computational demands of simulating mechanical response in complex engineered systems with finely resolved finite element models, there is a critical need to optimally reduce the fidelity of such simulations. The minimum required fidelity is constrained by error tolerances on the simulation results, but error bounds are often impossible to obtain a priori. One such source of error is the variability of material properties within a body due to spatially non-uniform processing conditions and inherent stochasticity in material microstructure. This study seeks to quantify the effects of microstructural heterogeneity on component- and system-scale performance to aid in the choice of an appropriate material model and spatial resolution for finite element analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using Particle Image Velocimetry to Determine Turbulence Model Parameters

The primary parameter of a standard k-ϵ model, C μ , was calculated from stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (PIV) data for a supersonic jet exhausting into a transonic crossflow. This required the determination of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent eddy viscosity, and turbulent energy dissipation rate. Image interrogation was optimized, with different procedures used for mean strain rates and Reynolds stresses, to produce useful turbulent eddy viscosity fields. The eddy viscosity was calculated by a least-squares fit to all components of the three-dimensional strain-rate tensor that were available from the PIV data. This eliminated artifacts and noise observed when using a single strain component. Local dissipation rates were determined via Kolmogorov’s similarity hypotheses and the second-order structure function. The eddy viscosity and dissipation rates were then combined to determine C μ . Considerable spatial variation was observed in C μ , with the highest values found in regions where turbulent kinetic energy was relatively low but where turbulent mixing was important, e.g., along the high-strain jet edges and in the wake region. This suggests that use of a constant C μ in modeling may lead to poor Reynolds stress predictions at mixing interfaces. A data-driven modeling approach that can predict this spatial variation of C μ based on known state variables may lead to improved simulation results without the need for calibration.

42 ENGINEERING↗