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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Advanced supercritical carbon dioxide cycles

The supercritical carbon dioxide cycle (sCO2) has been chosen as the most promising cycle to meet the SunShot goals with a power block that has the potential to achieve thermal efficiencies of 50+% with a turbine inlet temperature of 720 o C. While this cycle has significant potential, it is a fairly new cycle and therefore the costs and performance of the cycle are not known to the level required for detailed economic analysis. There are also multiple cycle configurations that may be used and the choice of configuration could depend on size, cost constraints, efficiency, cooling mode, O&M costs, etc. Each of the variants has particular advantages and drawbacks that have to be understood. The most cost effective way to understand these variants is to use models that allow us to predict the performance of the cycles linked to the heat source (solar thermal energy). In order to do this these models, need to be developed and improved to better predict the costs and performance of the cycle. One of the issues identified with the supercritical Brayton cycle is the fact that a large amount of internal heat exchange is required in order for it to realize its efficiency potential. To address this, recuperators of the Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger (PCHE) design have been primarily considered. While PCHEs are fairly advanced technology and have significant potential there are several drawbacks associated with them. The first being their cost; it is estimated that the two recuperators in a recompression Brayton cycle will cost more than 30% of the entire power block. Another major issue is the in service performance and lack of ability to repair or easily clean the recuperators. If there is a defect in a diffusion bond, fouling or plugging of the channels or mechanical damage due to rapid thermal transient then the entire PCHE may need to be replaced. The third issue is the lack of data and information on the performance of PCHEs at the scale that would be required even for a small 10 MWe plant. To date PCHE heat exchangers have not been constructed at this size and it is necessary to have multiple modules headered together in order to be able to recuperate up to the 40 MWth required in even a small, 10 MWe plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar gravitational redshift

Wavelengths of solar spectrum lines should be shifted toward the red by the sun's gravitational field as predicted by metric theories of gravity according to the principle of equivalence. Photographic wavelengths of 738 solar Fe I lines and their corresponding laboratory wavelengths have been studied. The measured solar wavelength minus the laboratory wavelength averaged for the strong lines agrees well with the theoretically predicted shift. Studies show that the departures depend on line strength. No dependence of the departures on wavelength was found within the existing data. By studying strong lines over a wide spectral range, velocity shifts caused by the complex motions in the solar atmosphere seem to affect the results in a minimal fashion.

Lopresto, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin Empowered PV Power Prediction

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significant to ensure the economic and safe operation of power systems. To this end, the paper proposes a new digital twin (DT) empowered PV power prediction framework that is capable of ensuring reliable data transmission and employing the DT to achieve high accuracy of power prediction. With this framework, considering potential data contamination in the collected PV data, a generative adversarial network is employed to restore the historical data set, which offers a prerequisite to ensure accurate mapping from the physical space to the digital space. Further, a new DT empowered PV power prediction method is proposed. Therein, we model a DT that encompasses a digital physical model for reflecting the physical operation mechanism and a neural network model (i.e., a parallel network of convolution and bidirectional long-short-term memory model) for capturing the hidden spatial-temporal features. The proposed method enables the use of the DT to take advantages of the digital physical model and the neural network model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a real data set is conducted to access the effectiveness of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations of the interactions of heavy ions from Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner with the solar wind

During the encounter between the ICE spacecraft and Comet Giacobini-Zinner, intense fluxes of energetic heavy ions were observed up to 4 x 10 to the 6th km from the comet. In this paper the authors correlated observations of heavy ions, the solar wind velocity and the magnetic field direction, and compare the observations of the ions with the theoretical predictions for their variations with distance from the comet, wih the solar wind velocity and with the magnetic field direction.

Sanderson, T. R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development of a thermal storage module using modified anhydrous sodium hydroxide

The laboratory scale testing of a modified anhydrous NaOH latent heat storage concept for small solar thermal power systems such as total energy systems utilizing organic Rankine systems is discussed. A diagnostic test on the thermal energy storage module and an investigation of alternative heat transfer fluids and heat exchange concepts are specifically addressed. A previously developed computer simulation model is modified to predict the performance of the module in a solar total energy system environment. In addition, the computer model is expanded to investigate parametrically the incorporation of a second heat exchange inside the module which will vaporize and superheat the Rankine cycle power fluid.

Rice, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Studies of Large-Area Inversion-Layer Metal-Insulator-Semiconductor (IL/MIS) Solar Cells and Arrays

Many inversion-layer metal-insulator-semiconductor (IL/MIS) solar cells have been fabricated. There are around eighteen 1 cm(exp 2) IL/MIS solar cells which have efficiencies greater than 7%. There are only about three 19 cm(exp 2) IL/MIS cells which have efficiencies greater than 4%. The more accurate control of the thickness of the thin layer of oxide between aluminum and silicon of the MIS contacts has been achieved. A lot of effort and progress have been made in this area. A comprehensive model for MIS contacts under dark conditions has been developed that covers a wide range of parameters. It has been applied to MIS solar cells. One of the main advantages of these models is the prediction of the range of the thin oxide thickness versus the maximum efficiencies of the MIS solar cells. This is particularly important when the thickness is increased to 25 A. This study is very useful for our investigation of the IL/MIS solar cells. The two-dimensional numerical model for the IL/MIS solar cells has been tried to develop and the results are presented in this report.

Ho, Fat Duen↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thermal Infrared Hot Spot and Dependence on Canopy Geometry

We perform theoretical calculations of the canopy thermal infrared (TIR) hot spot using a first principles 3-D model described earlier. Various theoretical canopies of varying leaf size and for differing canopy height are used to illustrate the magnitude of the TIR effect. Our results are similar to predicted behavior in the reflective hot spot as a function of canopy geometry and comparable to TIR measurements from the literature and our own simple ground experiments. We apply the MODTRAN atmospheric code to estimate the at-sensor variation in brightness temperature with view direction in the solar principal plane. For simple homogeneous canopies, we predict canopy thermal infrared hot spot variations of 2 degrees C at the surface with respect to nadir viewing. Dependence on leaf size is weak as long as the ratio of leaf size to canopy height is maintained. However, the angular width of the hot spot increases as the ratio of leaf diameter to canopy height increases. Atmospheric effects minimize but do not eliminate the TIR hot spot at satellite altitudes.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improvements in Modeling Thruster Plume Erosion Damage to Spacecraft Surfaces

Spacecraft bipropellant thrusters impact spacecraft surfaces with high speed droplets of unburned and partially burned propellant. These impacts can produce erosion damage to optically sensitive hardware and systems (e.g., windows, camera lenses, solar cells and protective coatings). On the International Space Station (ISS), operational constraints are levied on the position and orientation of the solar arrays to mitigate erosion effects during thruster operations. In 2007, the ISS Program requested evaluation of erosion constraint relief to alleviate operational impacts due to an impaired Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ). Boeing Space Environments initiated an activity to identify and remove sources of conservatism in the plume induced erosion model to support an expanded range of acceptable solar array positions  The original plume erosion model over-predicted plume erosion and was adjusted to better correlate with flight experiment results. This paper discusses findings from flight experiments and the methodology employed in modifying the original plume erosion model for better correlation of predictions with flight experiment data. The updated model has been successful employed in reducing conservatism and allowing for enhanced flexibility in ISS solar array operations.

Soares, Carlos↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation Modeling and Forecasting

Solar photovoltaic systems largely integrated within the distribution grid are operated 'behind-the-meter' and power generation cannot be directly monitored by most utilities. The increasing penetration of behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic systems can deter efficient network and market operations due to variability and uncertainty in net load, which is exacerbated by limited visibility and the difficulty in analyzing the hosting capacity. Risk introduced by behind-the-meter solar contributions may hinder reliable and secure grid operations due to biased system monitoring and forecasts. Accurate behind-the-meter estimations, together with capacity and specification forecasts, thus play a key role in balancing supply and demand and this article reviews the pertinent literature, identifying key characteristics and predictive methods for efficient behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation. Forecasting is central to methods herein. The fundamental characteristics of behind-the-meter solar forecasting, including which methods are applicable for scenario-driven use cases, are driven by the metrics most useful for system-wide performance evaluation. To this aim, the literature is reviewed with a focus on forecasting applications for aggregate, regional behind-the-meter generation useful to bulk system and utility operations. As distinguished from net load forecasting, subtleties in these coincident tasks are explored before concluding with recommendations for current practice and future implementations.

behind-the-meter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameterization of cloud transmittance for expeditious assessment and forecasting of all-sky DNI

Radiative transfer models require vast computing resources to solve cloud transmittance and reflectance from the radiative transfer equation. As a result, models offering precise simulation in operations often acquire individual cloud transmittance or reflectance from a lookup table precomputed for practicable scenarios. To further expedite the computation of global horizontal irradiance and to reduce the storage requirements, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) parameterized the lookup table using elementary functions with specified coefficients. This study extends FARMS direct normal irradiance (DNI) computation by utilizing hyperbolic tangent functions and various polynomial functions to parameterize the cloud transmittance for scattered solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The parameterization is implemented in FARMS with DNI (FARMS-DNI) and accounts for the circumsolar radiation when assessing or forecasting DNI. The evaluation, with long-term observations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's, Solar Radiation Research Laboratory, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement, Southern Great Plains, Central Facility, shows that the parameterized DNIs are virtually identical with those computed by coupling FARMS-DNI to a lookup table of cloud transmittance. This parameterization has diverse applications in radiative transfer models and numerical weather prediction models used to assess or forecast direct solar radiation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

Optical, thermal, and electrical performance of low-CR solar arrays

This paper describes the analysis and testing of a photovoltaic low-CR concentrator shaped like a truncated pyramid with an aperture of 0.5 m on a side and a geometric concentration ratio of six. The truncated base plane is covered by either silicon (Si) or gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells. Ray-trace analysis of the concentrator predicts a peak optical efficiency of 0.77, which falls off only gradually with pointing error. A coupled thermal-electrical analysis of the system shows that the moderately nonuniform illumination produced by the concentrator does not result in significant mismatch losses, provided the solar cells are connected in parallel groups. The results of ground tests involving a full-scale prototype concentrator conform well with theoretical predictions.

French, E. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Volumetrically Absorbing Thermal Insulator (VATI) for High-temperature Receivers

This project seeks to exploit volumetric absorption of concentrated solar irradiation in a thin, high-temperature, thermally conductive medium. High efficiency thermal conversion is achieved by volumetric absorption of both incoming solar irradiation (short wavelength) and emitted irradiation (long wavelength), demonstrating a volumetrically absorbing thermally insulating (VATI) effect. The thermalized energy is conducted to the back wall, enclosing the working fluid (molten salt or supercritical CO 2 ). Reliance on conductive thermal transport requires a thermally conductive medium, in the absence of which large temperature gradients drive losses due to emission. The project’s outcomes are important to realize a cost-effective approach to reduce optical and thermal losses from CSP receivers at high temperatures (720°C). High-temperature stable and commercially available porous SiC structures (open-cell foams) were explored as a volumetrically absorbing and thermally insulating layer. To the best of our knowledge, the current state-of-the-art for industrially deployed coatings is Pyromark. However, Pyromark suffers degradation at 700+°C and diurnal temperature changes. This necessitates periodic recoating, and the downtime increases the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE) production. On the other hand, contemporary research activities have generated significant advances in the development of selective emitter coatings, which present challenges with costs, scalability, and stability. The pursued approach alleviates these concerns by developing a receiver that utilizes the inherent structure of high-temperature stable porous materials to enable robust and cost-effective receivers which require no periodic maintenance downtimes. The overall goal of the project is to experimentally demonstrate a figure of merit (FOM) of 0.92 at a temperature of 720°C and solar irradiation of 1000x concentration with porous receivers. The relevant crystallographic (phase) optical and thermal properties of porous SiC were first characterized. Second, the 3-D geometry of the porous SiC was analyzed using micro-X-ray tomography and converted to CAD data using image processing analysis. Utilizing this 3-D geometry and relevant optical/thermal properties, Monte Carlo- Ray Tracing (MCRT) analysis was performed to extract important parameters governing solar-thermal energy conversion such as extinction coefficient (β, 1/m), scattering albedo (ω) and the scattering phase function (Φ). These properties were then integrated into an in-house radiative and conduction transport model to solve for temperature and transport fluxes characterizing the solar-thermal energy conversion. This model was utilized to predict the FOM for various SiC porous geometries and to identify the highest possible FOM. Testing of the optimized porous structures will be accomplished with a custom-built high-accuracy (< ±4%) FOM measurement test-stand and a 1000x solar concentrator. When neglecting convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall, the optimized SiC foam leads to a FOM of 0.84. This FOM does not surpass the performance of Pyromark 2500. Yet, conversely to Pyromark 2500, SiC is stable at high temperatures and does not degrade over time. Also, it is possible to boost the FOM of SiC by engineering its effective thermal conductivity and its scattering albedo. A FOM of 0.92 is predicted for an optimized foam by accounting for convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall. This largely exceeds the FOM of Pyromark 2500 (~0.86) predicted by neglecting convective losses and resistance. Therefore, further engineering of the foam could lead to unprecedented FOMs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

A photochemical equilibrium model for ionospheric conductivity

A photochemical equilibrium model of the high-latitude ionosphere has been developed. This model provides densities of the ionospheric constituents, N2(+), O2(+), O(+), and NO(+), from 85 km to approximately 220 km. These densities are then used to calculate Pedersen and Hall conductivities. A comparison of the model results with Arecibo and Chatanika radar observations was made, covering periods of solar minimum and solar maximum. The comparison showed the model to predict ionospheric densities to within 50 percent and conductivities to within 40 percent in the illuminated portion of the ionosphere. In regions of electron precipitation, the model showed good agreement with measurements. Results of this study indicate the following: (1) ionospheric conductivity increases by a factor of about 1.6 from solar minimum to solar maximum conditions, (2) the portion of the ionosphere above 170 km can contribute as much as 40 percent during daylight and 80 percent during nighttime to the total height-integrated Pedersen conductivity, and (3) the ratio of the height-integrated Hall to Pedersen conductivities is approximately 1.1-1.3 for sunlit conditions; this is appreciably lower than the value of 2 found in previous studies. These and other factors indicate that, under certain conditions, the height-integrated Pedersen conductivity may be as much as 2-3 times larger than previously reported.

Rasmussen, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Early Energetic Particle Irradiation of the HED Parent Body Regolith

Previous studies have shown that many individual grains within the dark phase of the Kapoeta howardite were irradiated with energetic particles while residing on the surface of the early HED regolith. Particle tracks in these grains vary in density by more than an order of magnitude and undoubtedly were formed by energetic heavy (Fe) ions associated with early solar flares. Early Irradiation of HED Regolith: Concentrations of excess Ne alone are not sufficient to decide between competing galactic and solar irradiation models. However, from recent studies of depth samples of oriented lunar rocks, we have shown that the cosmogenic 21-Ne/22-Ne ratio produced in feldspar differs substantially between Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) and solar protons, and that this difference is exactly that predicted from cross-section data. Using Ne literature data and new isotopic data we obtained on acid-etched, separated feldspar from both the light and dark phases of Kapoeta, we derive 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.80 for the recent GCR irradiation and 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.68 for the early regolith irradiation. This derived ratio indicates that the early Ne production in the regolith occurred by both galactic and solar protons. If we adopt a likely one-component regolith model in which all grains were exposed to galactic protons but individual grains had variable exposure to solar protons, we estimate that this early GCR irradiation lasted for about 3-6 m.y. More complex two-component regolith models involving separate solar and galactic irradiation would permit this GCR age to be longer. Higher-energy solar protons would permit the GCR to be longer. Higher-energy solar protons would permit the GCR age to be shorter. Further, cosmogenic 126(Xe) in Kapoeta dark is no more than a factor of about 2 higher than that observed in Kapoeta light. Because 126(Xe) can only be formed by galactic protons and not solar protons, these data support a short GCR irradiation for the HED regolith. This would also be the maximum time peRiod for the solar irradiation. Various asteroidal regolith models, based on Monte Carlo modeling of impact rates as a function of size and on irradiation features of meteorites, predict surface exposure times of about 0.1 to 10 m.y., and depend on such factors as gravity, rock mechanical properties, and micrometeoroid flux. Because the depth at which solar Fe tracks are produced (is much less than 1 micrometer) is much less than the depth at which Solar Cosmic Rays (SCR) Ne is produced (about 1 cm), for a reasonably well-stirred HED regolith the "surface exposure time" for SCR 21-Ne production should be significantly longer than that for solar tracks and some other surface irradiation features. Enhanced Solar Proton Irradiation: For bulk samples of Kapoeta dark feldspar and a one-component regolith model, the derived ratio of 21-Ne/22-Ne = 0.68 implies that the early production ratio of SCR 21-Ne to GCR 21-Ne was about 0.5-1.5. This ratio is independent of any assumptions about the fraction of dark grains that are irradiated or of the variability in the degree of solar irradiation among grains. The 21-Ne SCR/GCR ratio indirectly derived from bulk Kapoeta pyroxene is somewhat larger, as is the ratio derived for simple two-component regolith models. Individual feldspar grains that were extensively solar irradiated would require even larger 21-Ne SCR/GCR production ratios. In contrast, the theoretical SCR/GCR production ratio for lunar feldspar with 0 g/CM2 shield ing is is less than or equal to 2, and the lowest ratio observed in near-surface samples of lunar anorthosites is less than or equal to 1. Considering the greater solar distance of Vesta (compared to the Moon), the likelihood that SCR 21-Ne was acquired under some shielding where production rates are lower, and the likelihood that the exposure time to galactic protons exceeded the exposure time to solar protons because of their very different penetration depths, the 21-Ne SCR/GCR production ratio on the HED parent body was probably < 0.1. The relatively large difference between the derived 21-Ne SCR/GCR ratio in Kapoeta dark feldspar and the estimated production ratio strongly indicates that the early solar irradiation involved a flux -20-50x the recent solar flux. This enhanced proton flux was probably associated with an overall greater solar activity in the first approximately 10(exp 7) to 10(exp 8) years of solar history.

Bogard, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development of a Modeling Framework to Support Control Investigations of Sailcraft Missions A First Cut: ABLE Sailcraft Dynamics Model

Solar Sailcraft, the stuff of dreams of the H.G. Wells generation, is now a rapidly maturing reality. The promise of unlimited propulsive power by harnessing stellar radiation is close to realization. Currently, efforts are underway to build, prototype and test two configurations. These sails are designed to meet a 20m sail requirement, under guidance of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) technology program office at MSFC. While these sails will not fly , they are the first steps in improving our understanding of the processes and phenomena at work. As part of the New Millennium Program (NMP) the ST9 technology validation mission hopes to launch and fly a solar sail by 2010 or sooner. Though the Solar Sail community has been studying and validating various concepts over two decades, it was not until recent breakthroughs in structural and material technology, has made possible to build sails that could be launched. With real sails that can be tested (albeit under earth conditions), the real task of engineering a viable spacecraft has finally commenced. Since it is not possible to accurately or practically recreate the actual operating conditions of the sailcraft (zero-G, vacuum and extremely low temperatures), much of the work has focused on developing accurate models that can be used to predict behavior in space, and for sails that are 6-10 times the size of currently existing sails. Since these models can be validated only with real test data under "earth" conditions, the process of modeling and the identification of uncertainty due to model assumptions and scope need to be closely considered. Sailcraft models that exist currently, are primarily focused on detailed physical representations at the component level, these are intended to support prototyping efforts. System level models that cut across different sail configurations and control concepts while maintaining a consistent approach are non-existent. Much effort has been focused on the areas of thrust performance, solar radiation prediction, and sail membrane behavior vis-a-vis their reflective geometry, such as wrinkling/folding/furling as it pertains to thrust prediction. A parallel effort has been conducted on developing usable models for developing attitude control systems (ACS), for different sail configurations in different regimes. There has been very little by way of a system wide exploration of the impact of the various control schemes, thrust prediction models for different sail configurations being considered.

Sarathy, Sriprakash↗
NASA NTRS1973

Probabilities for the peak flux and fluence of energetic solar protons incident on interplanetary spacecraft

Energetic protons injected into interplanetary space in solar particle events can interfere with spacecraft operations and experiments and can cause permanent degradation of some components. For future long term interplanetary and planetary missions, techniques were developed which use solar particle event data from 1956 through 1970 to predict the probability of exceeding any value of peak proton intensity or mission proton fluence. Dependences on proton energy (near 10 to 100 MeV), heliocentric distance, and phase of the solar cycle are included. The techniques are described and applied to the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 mission.

Divine, N.↗