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DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity of Uncertainty in Wind Characteristics and Wind Turbine Properties on Wind Turbine Extreme and Fatigue Loads

Wind turbine design relies on the ability to accurately predict turbine ultimate and fatigue loads. The loads analysis process requires precise knowledge of the expected wind-inflow conditions as well as turbine structural and aerodynamic properties. However, uncertainty in most parameters is inevitable. It is therefore important to understand the impact such uncertainties have on the resulting loads. The goal of this work is to assess which input parameters have the greatest influence on turbine power, fatigue loads, and ultimate loads during normal turbine operation. An Elementary Effects (EE) sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most sensitive parameters. Separate case studies are performed on (1) wind-inflow conditions and (2) turbine structural and aerodynamic properties, both using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5-MW baseline wind turbine. The focus is on individual parameter sensitivity, though interactions between parameters are considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Phase-Sensitive Coherence and the Classical-Quantum Boundary in Ghost Imaging

The theory of partial coherence has a long and storied history in classical statistical optics. the vast majority of this work addresses fields that are statistically stationary in time, hence their complex envelopes only have phase-insensitive correlations. The quantum optics of squeezed-state generation, however, depends on nonlinear interactions producing baseband field operators with phase-insensitive and phase-sensitive correlations. Utilizing quantum light to enhance imaging has been a topic of considerable current interest, much of it involving biphotons, i.e., streams of entangled-photon pairs. Biphotons have been employed for quantum versions of optical coherence tomography, ghost imaging, holography, and lithography. However, their seemingly quantum features have been mimicked with classical-sate light, questioning wherein lies the classical-quantum boundary. We have shown, for the case of Gaussian-state light, that this boundary is intimately connected to the theory of phase-sensitive partial coherence. Here we present that theory, contrasting it with the familiar case of phase-insensitive partial coherence, and use it to elucidate the classical-quantum boundary of ghost imaging. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that classical phase-sensitive light produces ghost imaging most closely mimicking those obtained in biphotons, and we derived the spatial resolution, image contrast, and signal-to-noise ratio of a standoff-sensing ghost imager, taking into account target-induced speckle.

coherence theory↗

NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of JPSS J1 VIIRS Polarization Sensitivity Using the NIST T-SIRCUS

The polarization sensitivity of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) J1 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) measured pre-launch using a broadband source was observed to be larger than expected for many reflective bands. Ray trace modeling predicted that the observed polarization sensitivity was the result of larger diattenuation at the edges of the focal plane filter spectral bandpass. Additional ground measurements were performed using a monochromatic source (the NIST T-SIRCUS) to input linearly polarized light at a number of wavelengths across the bandpass of two VIIRS spectral bands and two scan angles. This work describes the data processing, analysis, and results derived from the T-SIRCUS measurements, comparing them with broadband measurements. Results have shown that the observed degree of linear polarization, when weighted by the sensor's spectral response function, is generally larger on the edges and smaller in the center of the spectral bandpass, as predicted. However, phase angle changes in the center of the bandpass differ between model and measurement. Integration of the monochromatic polarization sensitivity over wavelength produced results consistent with the broadband source measurements, for all cases considered.

reflective bands↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗

NASA NTRS2021

Observational Constraint on Cloud Feedbacks Suggests Moderate Climate Sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) predict warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Cu are insensitive to warming whereas GCMs exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in Cu regions. In contrast, Sc show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific SST gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical SST gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive Sc cloud feedback. Continued weak east-Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47  0.33 K) than many models predict.

Cloud feedback↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component-level Performance and Mass Sensitivity Analysis of NEP MW-class Power System

Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) is a promising option towards enabling missions to Mars and is an area of interest for NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion project. This project is currently investigating technology development opportunities for an NEP vehicle. Physics-based modeling can be used in the early stages of technology development to gain understanding of the effects of technology and performance assumptions on the system performance and mass. This information can then inform technology maturation planning for near term development. By using a Brayton power conversion model and vehicle mass model for megawatt class NEP applications, a sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of individual components’ performance on the power conversion system performance and system mass. A Monte Carlo simulation is also used to determine the variability in system mass based on uncertainty within the modeling parameters. The sensitivity analysis shows a high sensitivity to power conversion inlet temperature, compressor inlet temperature, and recuperator performance. A Monte Carlo analysis suggests a range of -10% to +15% for a 90% confidence interval on system mass based on the uncertainties in the model inputs.

Nuclear electric propulsion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗

DOE OSTI2014

Use of a Position-Sensitive Multi-Anode Photomultiplier Tube for Finding Gamma-Ray Source Direction

In an urban environment where gamma-ray background counts vary rapidly, it is important to determine the angle (with respect to the detector system) of a discrete gamma-ray–emitting source for localization purposes. We have recently developed a handheld gamma-ray detection system that provides gamma-ray energy spectral data and angular position of the target source. Careful placement and orientation of individual detectors with reference to other detectors in an array can provide improved angular resolution for determining the source position by occlusion mechanism. The objectives of this project were to design and build a prototype, light-weight, hand-held, gamma-ray spectrometer with directional sensitivity. It is important for first responders in a radiological emergency to have an easy-to-use gamma spectrometric detection system that determines the incident gamma-ray energy along with the relative angular position of a point-like radioactive source in a near-field measurement (≤3 meters from the source). The technical challenge of this project, driven by search scenarios for monitoring crowds in a national special security events was to determine the relative angle of a gamma-ray–emitting source (50 μCi strong) at a distance of 3 meters from the detector in 3 minutes. We designed and built small, portable, light-weight directional gamma energy spectrometers using a position-sensitive multi-anode photomultiplier. All of three spectrometers showed remarkable (ΔΘ = ± 2°) sensitivity to relative angular position of the source in near-field laboratory measurements.

position-sensitive photomultiplier tube (PMT), mul↗

DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Lbloca In Response To 10 Cfr50.46c New Rulemaking

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10 CFR 50.46c, the US NRC puts forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnupdependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently more fuel rods need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to maintain the safety margin, in contrast to the current practice with which only one hot rod needs to be analyzed. New multi-physics analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of the limiting rods and quantify safety margins under LOCA conditions. The U.S. DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has initiated a project to develop multi-physics analytical capabilities, called LOTUS, to support the industry in the transition to the proposed rule. An approach to uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis with LOTUS was developed. A typical four-loop PWR plant model was developed and simulated by RELAP5-3D with inputs generated from core design and fuel performance analyses, and uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis were performed with seventeen uncertain input parameters. The maximum equivalent cladding reacted ratio (ECRR) and peak clad temperature ratio (PCTR) were selected as the figures of merit (FOM). Pearson, Spearman, partial correlation coefficients, and Sobol indices were considered for all of the figures of merit in the sensitivity analysis.

10CFR50.46c↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessment of Wind Parameter Sensitivity on Ultimate and Fatigue Wind Turbine Loads: Preprint

Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to ascertain the structural loads that the turbine could encounter. While mean hub-height wind speed is considered to vary, other wind parameters such as turbulence spectra, sheer, veer, spatial coherence, and component correlation are fixed or conditional values that, in reality, could have different characteristics at different sites and have a significant effect on the resulting loads. This paper therefore seeks to assess the sensitivity of different wind parameters on the resulting ultimate and fatigue loads on the turbine during normal operational conditions. Eighteen different wind parameters are screened using an Elementary Effects approach with radial points. As expected, the results show a high sensitivity of the loads to the turbulence standard deviation in the primary wind direction, but the sensitivity to wind shear is often much greater. To a lesser extent, other wind parameters that drive loads include the coherence in the primary wind direction and veer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis Applications to Fuel Performance Modeling

Best-estimate fuel performance codes such as BISON currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, utilize empirical and mechanistic lower-length-scale informed correlations to predict fuel behavior under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. Traditionally, best-estimate results are presented using the correlations with no quantification of the uncertainty in the output metrics of interest. However, there are associated uncertainties in the input parameters and correlations used to determine the behavior of the fuel and cladding under irradiation. Therefore, it is important to perform uncertainty quantification and include confidence bounds on the output metrics that take into account the uncertainties in the inputs. In addition, sensitivity analyses can be performed to determine which input parameters have the greatest influence on the outputs. In this paper we couple the BISON fuel performance code to the DAKOTA uncertainty analysis software to analyze a representative fuel performance problem. The case studied in this paper is based upon rod 1 from the IFA-432 integral experiment performed at the Halden Reactor in Norway. The rodlet is representative of a BWR fuel rod. The input parameters uncertainties are broken into three separate categories including boundary condition uncertainties (e.g., power, coolant flow rate), manufacturing uncertainties (e.g., pellet diameter, cladding thickness), and model uncertainties (e.g., fuel thermal conductivity, fuel swelling). Utilizing DAKOTA, a variety of statistical analysis techniques are applied to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the output metrics of interest. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of sampling methods, polynomial chaos expansions, surrogate models, and variance-based decomposition. The output metrics investigated in this study are the fuel centerline temperature, cladding surface temperature, fission gas released, and fuel rod diameter. The results highlight the importance of quantifying the uncertainty and sensitivity in fuel performance modeling predictions and the need for additional research into improving the material models that are currently available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Whisper Sensitivity Study of the NMIS ATR Fuel Storage Racks

A sensitivity study was performed on the NMIS ATR fuel storage racks as part of the CSE to implement the boron-carbide aluminum composite shelves. Whisper was used as part of this study to find applicable benchmarks for validation purposes. It was found that Whisper is very useful in finding benchmarks for the most sensitive isotopes in a problem but can be used to search for sensitivities related to specific isotopes. Whisper gave confidence in the NMIS validation and helped the author learn details about the physics of the problem as well.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Log-N/Period Sensitivity Analysis

The Log-N/Period system utilizes a compensated ion chamber to measure neutron radiation in the reactor core. This analysis focuses on determining a more accurate value for the sensitivity of the installed compensated ion chambers for the Log-N/Period system at the ATR. Using calibration procedures a formula for indirectly calculating the sensitivity of the chambers was derived. Using historical data from approximately ten reactor cycles a new average sensitivity for both channels of the Log-N/Period system was determined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Studies, Gap Analysis, and Benchmark Experiment Optimization for Reactor Applications

In regards to nuclear data, some reactor applications may lack validation experiments, which reduces confidence in predicted results. This is especially true for emerging advanced reactor, micro reactor, and Accelerator Driven System (ADS) designs. This work presents an approach to design new criticality experiments that have similar k eff cross section sensitivities to an application of interest. This process involves simulations to generate cross-section sensitivities to a parameter of interest (such as k eff ), a gap analysis to determine which existing benchmarks are most similar to the application, and an experiment optimization. This work focuses on cross-section sensitives and gap analysis for three examples relevant to the reactor physics community including a Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) type-design, Kilopower (a space reactor design), and a lead-bismuth eutectic cooled accelerator-driven system (ADS) to transmute minor actinides.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aerodynamic Sensitivity of a Novel Data-Driven Airfoil Shape Representation Framework

We explore the aerodynamic implications of a novel data-driven separable shape tensor framework used to represent discrete airfoil shapes. In this study, we construct a data-driven parameter space defined by separable shape tensors and informed by tens of thousands of distinct airfoils. We use this design space to generate new airfoil designs to study parametric sensitivities with respect to various aerodynamic responses. We use a HAM2D RANS solver to approximate the lift, drag, and moment coefficients for the generated airfoils at two different angles-of-attack. We analyze the robustness and sensitivities of using the separable shape tensor design space by examining the coverage of the aerodynamic response space, uncovering low-dimensional polynomial ridge approximations, and computing various sensitivity metrics. The results show that the data-driven design space produce significant variation in target aerodynamic quantities and facilitate highly accurate approximations (R^2 > 0.96) of one- and two-dimensional structures in each aerodynamic response. This further reduces the effective dimension to enable simplified design and optimization tasks.

aerodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2016

Screening sensitivity analysis of a PWR fuel assembly FEM structural model

Within the present project, computational methods to describe the static mechanical response of PWR fuel assemblies (FA) in the reactor core are developed. For this purpose a structural model of a PWR fuel assembly has been implemented with the Finite Element Method (FEM) using the ANSYS APDL Mechanical code. The purpose of the model is to investigate the long-term creep deformation of the fuel assemblies in the reactor core, commonly known as fuel assembly bow. FA bow is considered to be a complex process with a large number of influencing mechanisms and many only roughly known boundary conditions. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are a common way to investigate the predictive power and reliability of such complex models. Hence, as a first approach to understand the importance of the many model parameters, a qualitative sensitivity analysis of the model was conducted using the screening method proposed by Morris. In the first part of the paper, the FA structural model and its principal parameters are presented. The second part presents first the different simulation experiments used for the screening analyses. Based on the model description, relevant input parameters are then identified and a typical range of values is determined. The sensitivity analysis is performed in two subsequent steps. First, the model is screened for influential stiffness parameters with the objective of stiffening the FA structure. Second, the influence of the uncertain boundary conditions and material models on the FA creep deformation is tested. For the considered FA design it is concluded that the influence of the involved uncertainties is comparable to the influence of the parameters which can increase the stiffness. An integral approach accounting for these uncertainties is hence necessary to predict FA bow reliably in order to take additional measures for a further reduction of FA bow amplitudes. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Design and testing of a sensitive heat-flow calorimeter for measuring radioactive waste in 55-gallon (US) drums - 15334

A sensitive large volume calorimeter for measuring the thermal power generated by the radioactive decay of heat producing materials in 55-gallon drums has been developed and tested. The technology is applicable to the measurement of all radionuclides that decay by alpha or beta decay such as waste or product material containing plutonium, tritium and americium. It is also relevant to the measurement of drums where gamma rays from radioactive decay are captured locally in attenuating materials and the resulting rate of thermal energy deposition (sample thermal power) is of sufficient magnitude for a calorimetry measurement. The initial application of the drum calorimeter is for measuring and characterizing plutonium-bearing waste drums. The calorimeter design has optimised the two characteristics of high thermal sensitivity and reduced measurement times. In order to achieve these characteristics for large volume drums, the heat-flow method of operation was chosen in a single measurement chamber configuration. Using a drum-lifting device, the waste drum is positioned on a sliding platform and subsequently moved by the operator inside an octagonal inner chamber, which acts as the heat sink. The heat-sink chamber has significant thermal inertia and remains effectively at a constant temperature throughout the duration of a drum measurement. The octagonal inner measurement chamber is constructed inside a multi-layer external thermal enclosure, which provides both thermal insulation and significant thermal inertia. The external thermal enclosure isolates the measurement process from the effects of changes in the external ambient temperature. During a measurement, heat flows from the drum being measured to the heat sink. This heat-flow is measured by a series of thermopile sensor assemblies, which are positioned between the waste drum and the heat sink. A high sensitivity of greater than 200 μV/mW (microvolts per milliwatt) has been achieved using multiple close-coupled thermopile sensors in each assembly. Reduced measurement times are achieved by positioning the thermopile sensor assemblies close to the drum surface in order to reduce the thermal transport delay. The instrument incorporates a calibrated precision power supply, which requires annual recalibration and is traceable to national standards. It is used to power a calibration heater that has been built into a calibration and test drum. The calibration and test drum is used both to calibrate the instrument and provide periodic confirmation of correct operation. Measurements of calorimeter performance are reported for a range of drum thermal powers. Long-term temperature drift measurements are used to provide estimates of the minimum detectable drum thermal power and hence the minimum detectable activity for both plutonium and tritium. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a combined depletion and criticality calculation chain of a BWR FA

This paper examines the prerequisites and boundary conditions for extending burnup credit from pressurized water reactors to boiling water reactors with validated depletion codes by performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on a modern boiling water reactor fuel assembly design. We developed a computational chain consisting of an axial boiling water reactor axial irradiation model, followed by a series of depletion calculations and a three-dimensional criticality calculation. The irradiation model puts into relation the profiles of power, burnup and moderator density of the fuel assembly at 24 axial locations. In a simplified fashion it also includes the insertion of control blades. The depletion calculations of the fuel assembly were performed in axial slices with the 2D-depletion code HELIOS 1.12. The criticality calculations were done in 3D-geometry with KENO-Va from the SCALE 6.2.1 package, in which several fuel assemblies are placed into a generic transport cask. For the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses a Monte Carlo sampling based approach is used applying the GRS tool SUnCISTT. We performed several generic investigations testing the capabilities and the limitations of the whole computational chain. The impact of variations of the irradiation model on the resulting reactivity of the fuel assemblies inside a transport cask or storage pool was investigated using an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the whole computational chain. Geometrical uncertainties were also included in the evaluation and a parameter study on the use of control blades during irradiation was performed. The goal was to develop the procedures and tools to be able to obtain quantitative uncertainty data which can be used in the future to derive conservative irradiation profiles without unnecessary excess reactivity margins. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗