Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A Methodology to Evaluate Ecological Resources and Risk Using Two Case Studies at the Department of Energy’s Hanford Site

An assessment of the potential risks to ecological resources from remediation activities or other perturbations should involve a quantitative evaluation of resources on the remediation site and in the surrounding environment. We developed a risk methodology to rapidly evaluate potential impact on ecological resources for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southcentral Washington State. We describe the application of the risk evaluation for two case studies to illustrate its applicability. The ecological assessment involves examining previous sources of information for the site, defining different resource levels from 0 to 5. We also developed a risk rating scale from nondiscernable to very high. Field assessment is the critical step to determine resource levels or to determine if current conditions are the same as previously evaluated. We provide a rapid assessment method for current ecological conditions that can be compared to previous site-specific data, or that can be used to assess resource value on other sites where ecological information is not generally available. The method is applicable to other Department of Energy’s sites, where its development may involve a range of state regulators, resource trustees, Tribes and other stakeholders. Achieving consistency across Department of Energy’s sites for valuation of ecological resources on remediation sites will assure Congress and the public that funds and personnel are being deployed appropriately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reference range of liver corrected T1 values in a population at low risk for fatty liver disease—a UK Biobank sub-study, with an appendix of interesting cases

Purpose: Corrected T1 (cT1) value is a novel MRI-based quantitative metric for assessing a composite of liver inflammation and fibrosis. It has been shown to distinguish between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFL) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. However, these studies were conducted in patients at high risk for liver disease. This study establishes the normal reference range of cT1 values for a large UK population, and assesses interactions of age and gender. Methods: MR data were acquired on a 1.5 T system as part of the UK Biobank Imaging Enhancement study. Measures for Proton Density Fat Fraction and cT1 were calculated from the MRI data using a multiparametric MRI software application. Data that did not meet quality criteria were excluded from further analysis. Inter and intra-reader variability was estimated in a set of data. A cohort at low risk for NAFL was identified by excluding individuals with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m{sup 2} and PDFF ≥ 5%. Of the 2816 participants with data of suitable quality, 1037 (37%) were classified as at low risk. Results: The cT1 values in the low-risk population ranged from 573 to 852 ms with a median of 666 ms and interquartile range from 643 to 694 ms. Iron correction of T1 was necessary in 36.5% of this reference population. Age and gender had minimal effect on cT1 values. Conclusion: The majority of cT1 values are tightly clustered in a population at low risk for NAFL, suggesting it has the potential to serve as a new quantitative imaging biomarker for studies of liver health and disease.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Chemoembolization Decreases Drop-Off Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients on the Liver Transplant List

Introduction: The drop-off risk for patients awaiting liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is 22%. Transplant liver availability is expected to worsen, resulting in longer waiting times and increased drop-off rates. Our aim was to determine whether chemoembolization can decrease this risk. Patients and Methods: Eighty-seven consecutive HCC patients listed for liver transplant (Milan criteria) underwent statistical comparability adjustments using the propensity score (Wilcoxon, Fisher's, and chi-square tests). Forty-three nonchemoembolization patients and 22 chemoembolization patients were comparable for Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores, tumor size and number, alpha fetoprotein (AFP) levels, and cause of cirrhosis. We calculated the risk of dropping off the transplant list by assigning a transplant time to those who dropped off (equal probability with patients who were on the list longer than the patient in question). The significance level was obtained by calculating the simulation distribution of the difference compared with the permutations of chemoembolization versus nonchemoembolization assignment of the patients. Kaplan-Meier estimators (log-rank test) were used to determine survival rates. Results: Median follow-up was 187 {+-} 110 weeks (range 38 to 435, date of diagnosis). The chemoembolization group had an 80% drop-off risk decrease (15% nonchemoembolization versus 3% chemoembolization, p = 0.04). Although survival was better for the chemoembolization group, it did not reach statistical significance. Two-year survival for the nonchemoembolization and chemoembolization group was 57.3% {+-} 7.1% and 76.0% {+-} 7.9%, respectively (p = 0.078). Conclusions: Chemoembolization appears to result in a significant decrease in the risk of dropping off liver transplant list for patients with HCC and results in a tendency toward longer survival.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predictors of Recurrent Biliary Obstruction Following Percutaneous Uncovered Metal Stent Insertion in Patients with Distal Malignant Biliary Obstruction: An Analysis Using a Competing Risk Model

Objective: To evaluate predictive factors of recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO) following percutaneous uncovered metal stent placement for unresectable distal malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) by using a competing risk model. Materials and Methods: Between March 2012 and March 2016, 119 patients underwent percutaneous uncovered metal stent placement with distal MBO at our institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the prognostic factors for RBO using a competing risk model. Results: The median overall survival period was 170 days (range 19–775 days). Recurrent biliary obstruction before death was observed in 34 patients (28.6%). The 3-, 6-, and 12-month cumulative incidences of RBO were 14.3%, 21.0%, and 27.7%, respectively. A multivariate analysis indicated that ampullary carcinoma compared with metastatic carcinoma (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74–13.54; P = 0.003) and a stent insertion above the sphincter of Oddi (HR 2.49; 95% CI, 1.11–5.62; P = 0.028) were the independent risk factors for RBO when we considered death to be a competing risk. Conclusion: Ampullary carcinoma and stent insertion above the sphincter of Oddi were risk factors for RBO in these patients who received percutaneous transhepatic stent placement.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Anti-cancer drugs-induced arterial injury: risk stratification, prevention, and treatment

Vascular side effects of standard chemotherapeutic drugs and novel anti-tumor agents complicate treatment cycles, increase non-cancer-related mortality rates, and decrease the quality of life in cancer survivors. Arterial thromboembolic events (ATEE) are associated with most anti-cancer medications. Previous articles have reported a variety of vascular events including ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction as one of the most severe acute arterial attacks. Cardiologists should play an early role in identifying those at high risk for vascular complications and tailor anti-thrombotic therapies in keeping with thromboembolic and bleeding risks. Early preventive steps and individualized chemotherapy may decrease anti-tumor treatment-related vascular events. Here, we aim to provide an extensive review of anti-tumor drug-induced vascular injury (DIVI), pathomechanisms, and risk stratification underlining arterial events. We give a summary of clinical manifestations, treatment options, and possible preventive measures of DIVI. Additionally, the treatment of modifiable risk factors and tailored choice of chemotherapy must be considered in all oncology patients to prevent DIVI. We propose a complex tool for ATEE risk stratification which is warranted for early prediction leading to less frequent complications in cancer patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prevalence of Modifiable Cancer Risk Factors Among U.S. Adults Aged 18–44 Years

Introduction: Carcinogen exposure and unhealthy habits acquired in young adulthood can set the stage for the development of cancer at older ages. This study measured the current prevalence of several cancer risk factors among young adults to assess opportunities to intervene to change the prevalence of these risk factors and potentially reduce cancer incidence. Methods: Using 2015 National Health Interview Survey data (analyzed in 2016), the prevalence of potential cancer risk factors was estimated among U.S. adults aged 18–44 years, based on responses to questions about diet, physical activity, tobacco product use, alcohol, indoor tanning, sleep, human papillomavirus vaccine receipt, and obesity, stratified by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Results: The prevalence of some risk factors varied by age and race/ethnicity. Obesity (one in four people) and insufficient sleep (one in three people) were common among men and women. Physical inactivity (one in five men, one in four women); binge drinking (one in four men, one in eight women); cigarette smoking (one in five men, one in seven women); and frequent consumption of red meat (one in four men, one in six women) also were common. More than half of the population of adults aged 18–44 years consumed sugar-sweetened beverages daily and processed meat at least once a week. Most young adults had never had the human papillomavirus vaccine. Conclusions: Findings can be used to target evidence-based environmental and policy interventions to reduce the prevalence of cancer risk factors among young adults and prevent the development of future cancers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and non-fatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium. The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via mtCOJO, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders and other known risk factors. Results: Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with non-psychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions: Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A risk index for multicriterial selection of a logging system with low environmental impact

Setting up the working stages in forest operations is conditioned by environmental protection and forest health requirements. This paper exposes a method for improving the decision-making process by choosing the most environmentally effective logging systems according to terrain configuration and stand characteristics. Such a methodology for selecting machines or logging systems accounting for environment, safety as well as economics, becomes mandatory in the context of sustainable management of forest with multiple functions. Based on analytic hierarchy process analysis the following classification of the environmental performance for four considered alternatives was obtained: skyline system (42.43%), forwarder system (20.22%), skidder system (19.92%) and horse logging system (17.43%). Further, an environmental risk matrix for the most important 28 risk factors specific to any work equipment used in forest operations was produced. In the end, a multicriterial analysis generated a risk index RI ranging between 1.0 and 3.5, which could help choosing the optimal combination of logging system and logging equipment with low environmental impact. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach, a simple application in specific conditions of a harvesting site is presented. - Highlights: • We propose a decision-making algorithm to select eco-friendly logging systems. • Analytic hierarchy process was applied for ranking 4 types of logging systems. • An environmental risk matrix with 28 risk factors in forest operations was made up.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Avian collision risk models for wind energy impact assessments

With the increasing global development of wind energy, collision risk models (CRMs) are routinely used to assess the potential impacts of wind turbines on birds. We reviewed and compared the avian collision risk models currently available in the scientific literature, exploring aspects such as the calculation of a collision probability, inclusion of stationary components e.g. the tower, angle of approach and uncertainty. 10 models were cited in the literature and of these, all included a probability of collision of a single bird colliding with a wind turbine during passage through the rotor swept area, and the majority included a measure of the number of birds at risk. 7 out of the 10 models calculated the probability of birds colliding, whilst the remainder used a constant. We identified four approaches to calculate the probability of collision and these were used by others. 6 of the 10 models were deterministic and included the most frequently used models in the UK, with only 4 including variation or uncertainty in some way, the most recent using Bayesian methods. Despite their appeal, CRMs have their limitations and can be ‘data hungry’ as well as assuming much about bird movement and behaviour. As data become available, these assumptions should be tested to ensure that CRMs are functioning to adequately answer the questions posed by the wind energy sector. - Highlights: • We highlighted ten models available to assess avian collision risk. • Only 4 of the models included variability or uncertainty. • Collision risk models have limitations and can be ‘data hungry’. • It is vital that the most appropriate model is used for a given task.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thirdhand tobacco smoke exposure increases the genetic background-dependent risk of pan-tumor development in Collaborative Cross mice

Increasing evidence has shown that thirdhand smoke (THS) exposure is likely to induce adverse health effects. An important knowledge gap remains in our understanding of THS exposure related to cancer risk in the human population. Population-based animal models are useful and powerful in investigating the interplay between host genetics and THS exposure on cancer risk. Here, we used the Collaborative Cross (CC) mouse population-based model system, which recapitulates the genetic and phenotypic diversity observed in the human population, to assess cancer risk after a short period of exposure, between 4 and 9 weeks of age. Eight CC strains (CC001, CC019, CC026, CC036, CC037, CC041, CC042 and CC051) were included in our study. We quantified pan-tumor incidence, tumor burden per mouse, organ tumor spectrum and tumor-free survival until 18 months of age. At the population level, we observed a significantly increased pan-tumor incidence and tumor burden per mouse in THS-treated mice as compared to the control (p = 3.04E-06). Lung and liver tissues exhibited the largest risk of undergoing tumorigenesis after THS exposure. Tumor-free survival was significantly reduced in THS-treated mice compared to control (p = 0.044). At the individual strain level, we observed a large variation in tumor incidence across the 8 CC strains. CC036 and CC041 exhibited a significant increase in pan-tumor incidence (p = 0.0084 and p = 0.000066, respectively) after THS exposure compared to control. We conclude that early-life THS exposure increases tumor development in CC mice and that host genetic background plays an important role in individual susceptibility to THS-induced tumorigenesis. Genetic background is an important factor that should be taken into account when determining human cancer risk of THS exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Urinary strontium and the risk of breast cancer: A case-control study in Guangzhou, China

Strontium has been widely used in industries like electronic and pharmacy. It has a carcinogenic potential, however, and no study has been conducted to evaluate its effects on cancer risk. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between strontium and breast cancer risk in a case-control study including 240 incident invasive breast cancer patients and 246 age-matched controls. We measured the urinary concentrations of strontium by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and conducted face-to-face interviews to obtain information on potential breast cancer risk factors. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the association. Creatinine-adjusted levels [median (25th, 75th) {mu}g/g] of strontium were 155.59 (99.05, 230.70) in the breast cancer patients and 119.62 (81.97, 163.76) in the controls. Women in the highest tertile of strontium showed 124% increased risk of breast cancer, when compared with those in the lowest tertile after adjustment for the potential risk factors [OR (95% CI): 2.24 (1.42-3.81)]. This association was particularly strong for HER2 positive breast cancer [OR (95% CI): 10.92 (3.53-33.77)], and only occurred among premenopausal women. These results suggest a potential role of strontium in the development of breast cancer and urge further studies on the environmental contamination and the physiological and pathological mechanisms of strontium.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Leisure time activities related to carcinogen exposure and lung cancer risk in never smokers. A case-control study

We aim to assess the relationship between leisure time activities related to exposure to carcinogenic substances and lung cancer risk in a hospital-based case-control study performed in never smokers. We included never smoking cases with anatomopathologically confirmed lung cancer and never smoking controls undergoing trivial surgery, at 8 Spanish hospitals. The study was conducted between January 2011 and June 2013. Participants were older than 30 and had no previous neoplasms. All were personally interviewed focusing on lifestyle, environmental tobacco smoke exposure, occupational history and leisure time activities (including duration of such activities). Results were analyzed through logistic regression and adjusted also by residential radon and education level. We included 513 never smokers, 191 cases and 322 controls. The OR for those performing the studied leisure time activities was 1.43 (95%CI 0.78–2.61). When we restricted the analysis to those performing do-it-yourself activities for more than 10 years the OR was 2.21 (95%CI 0.93–5.27). Environmental tobacco smoke exposure did not modify this association. The effect for the different lung cancer histological types was very close to significance for adenocarcinoma but only when these activities were performed for more than 10 years. We encourage health professionals to recommend protective measures for those individuals while performing these hobbies to reduce the risk of lung cancer. - Highlights: • Some leisure time activities are associated with the exposure to carcinogenic substances. • These activities are model-making, painting (artistic or not), furniture refinishing or wood working. • Few studies have assessed lung cancer risk due to these hobbies and none in never-smokers. • Leisure activities related to exposure to carcinogenic substances present higher lung cancer risk. • The risk is higher when these activities are performed for more than 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Identifying risk factors for exposure to culturable allergenic moulds in energy efficient homes by using highly specific monoclonal antibodies

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in identifying culturable allergenic fungi present in visible mould growth in energy efficient homes, and to identify risk factors for exposure to these known allergenic fungi. Swabs were taken from fungal contaminated surfaces and culturable yeasts and moulds isolated by using mycological culture. Soluble antigens from cultures were tested by ELISA using mAbs specific to the culturable allergenic fungi Aspergillus and Penicillium spp., Ulocladium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum spp., Cladosporium spp., Fusarium spp., and Trichoderma spp. Diagnostic accuracies of the ELISA tests were determined by sequencing of the internally transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-5.8S-ITS2-encoding regions of recovered fungi following ELISA. There was 100% concordance between the two methods, with ELISAs providing genus-level identity and ITS sequencing providing species-level identities (210 out of 210 tested). Species of Aspergillus/Penicillium, Cladosporium, Ulocladium/Alternaria/Epicoccum, Fusarium and Trichoderma were detected in 82% of the samples. The presence of condensation was associated with an increased risk of surfaces being contaminated by Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. and Cladosporium spp., whereas moisture within the building fabric (water ingress/rising damp) was only associated with increased risk of Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. Property type and energy efficiency levels were found to moderate the risk of indoor surfaces becoming contaminated with Aspergillus/Penicillium and Cladosporium which in turn was modified by the presence of condensation, water ingress and rising damp, consistent with previous literature. - Highlights: • Monoclonal antibodies were used to track culturable allergenic moulds in homes. • Allergenic moulds were recovered from 82% of swabs from contaminated surfaces. • The mAbs were highly specific with 100% agreement to PCR of recovered fungi. • Improvements to energy efficiency lowered risk of exposure to allergenic fungi.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term exposure to wind turbine noise at night and risk for diabetes: A nationwide cohort study

Highlights: • We investigated a cohort of 365,986 Danes living close to wind turbines (WT). • We identified 25,148 cases of diabetes during the period 1996–2002. • Long-term exposure to WT noise was not associated with increased risk of diabetes. • Similar results were seen for indoor night-time noise and across a range of strata. • Results do not support an association between wind turbine noise and diabetes. Focus on renewable energy sources and reduced unit costs has led to increased number of wind turbines (WTs). WT noise (WTN) is reported to be highly annoying at levels from 30 to 35 dB and up, whereas for traffic noise people report to be highly annoyed from 40 to 45 dB and up. This has raised concerns as to whether WTN may increase risk for major diseases, as exposure to traffic noise has consistently been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. We identified all Danish dwellings within a radius of 20 WT heights and 25% of all dwellings within 20–40 WT heights from a WT. Using detailed data on WT type and hourly wind data at each WT position and height, we estimated hourly outdoor and low frequency indoor WTN for all dwellings, aggregated as nighttime 1- and 5-year running means. Using nationwide registries, we identified a study population of 614,731 persons living in these dwellings in the period from 1996 to 2012, of whom 25,148 developed diabetes. Data were analysed using Poisson regression with adjustment for individual and area-levels covariates. We found no associations between long-term exposure to WTN during night and diabetes risk, with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of 0.90 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.79–1.02) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.68–1.24) for 5-year mean nighttime outdoor WTN of 36–42 and ≥ 42 dB, respectively, compared to < 24 dB. For 5-year mean nighttime indoor low frequency WTN of 10–15 and ≥ 15 dB we found IRRs of 0.90 (0.78–1.04) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.41–1.34), respectively, when compared to and < 5 dB. The lack of association was consistent across strata of sex, distance to major road, validity of noise estimate and WT height. The present study does not support an association between nighttime WTN and higher risk of diabetes. However, there were only few cases in the highest exposure groups and findings need reproduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Cellulosic biorefinery portfolio and diversification: Strategies to mitigate cellulosic biorefinery risks in US Corn Belt

Several studies have highlighted that one of the largest risks with cellulosic biorefinery investments are year-to-year variability in cellulosic biomass quantity available. Yet, strategies to mitigate these risks in biofuel development are less understood. In the absence of strategies to minimize the impact due to these variations, both biorefineries and farmers venturing into the cellulosic biofuel arena will be significantly exposed. Studies have been done on using engineering approaches, such as biomass pre- treatment and storage to address biomass supply variations. Recent studies have provided market structure and contracting strategies to manage biomass supply risks. However, storage, pre-treatment and similar engineering approaches lead to higher costs and has other limitations such as additional infrastructural requirements. There is a gap in understanding the use of feedstock (biomass) diversifi- cation and portfolio strategies to mitigate such risks. In this study a portfolio approach is developed and applied to the case of the US Corn Belt, considering various types of cellulosic biomass including corn stover, wheat straw, and switchgrass. It is found that feedstock diversification mitigates up to 40% of feedstock supply variations, while biorefinery diversification can mitigate up to 70% of feedstock supply variations although it is constrained by current cropland use patterns in the region. Altogether, diversification and portfolio strategies present an effective way for mitigating risks associated with feedstock supply variations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Acute Urinary Retention After I-125 Prostate Brachytherapy

Purpose: Acute urinary retention (AUR) after iodine-125 (I-125) prostate brachytherapy negatively influences long-term quality of life and therefore should be prevented. We aimed to develop a nomogram to preoperatively predict the risk of AUR. Methods: Using the preoperative data of 714 consecutive patients who underwent I-125 prostate brachytherapy between 2005 and 2008 at our department, we modeled the probability of AUR. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of a set of pretreatment predictors and the additional value of a new risk factor (the extent of prostate protrusion into the bladder). The performance of the final model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. Results: Of the 714 patients, 57 patients (8.0%) developed AUR after implantation. Multivariate analysis showed that the combination of prostate volume, IPSS score, neoadjuvant hormonal treatment and the extent of prostate protrusion contribute to the prediction of AUR. The discriminative value (receiver operator characteristic area, ROC) of the basic model (including prostate volume, International Prostate Symptom Score, and neoadjuvant hormonal treatment) to predict the development of AUR was 0.70. The addition of prostate protrusion significantly increased the discriminative power of the model (ROC 0.82). Calibration of this final model was good. The nomogram showed that among patients with a low sum score (<18 points), the risk of AUR was only 0%-5%. However, in patients with a high sum score (>35 points), the risk of AUR was more than 20%. Conclusion: This nomogram is a useful tool for physicians to predict the risk of AUR after I-125 prostate brachytherapy. The nomogram can aid in individualized treatment decision-making and patient counseling.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗