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Presentation detailing work package to develop comprehensive fusion device safety models over the course of the next three years, including references to a blanket, divertor and magnet design, and statistical reliability models
We investigate localization properties of driven models which exhibit a subextensive number of extended states in the static setting. We consider instances where the extended modes are or are not protected by topological considerations. To this end, we contrast the strongly driven, disordered, lowest Landau level, which we refer to as the random Landau model (RLM), with the random dimer model (RDM); the RDM also has a subextensive set of delocalized modes in the middle of the spectrum whose origin is not topological. We map the driven models on to a higher-dimensional effective model and numerically compute the localization length as a function of disorder strength, drive amplitude, and frequency using the recursive Green's function method. Our numerical results indicate that, in the presence of a strong drive (low frequency and/or large drive amplitude), the topologically protected RLM continues to exhibit a spectrum with both localized and delocalized (or critical) modes, but the spectral range of delocalized modes is enhanced by the driving. This occurs due to an admixture of the localized modes with extended modes arising due to the topologically protected critical energy in the middle of the spectrum. On the other hand, in the RDM, a weak drive immediately localizes the entire spectrum. This occurs in contrast to the naive expectation from perturbation theory that mixing between localized and delocalized modes generically enhances the delocalization of all modes. Our work highlights the importance of the origin of the delocalized modes in the localization properties of the corresponding Floquet model.
Arakawa and Wu (2013, hereafter referred to as AW13) recently developed a formal approach to a unified parameterization of atmospheric convection for high-resolution numerical models. The work is based on ideas formulated by Arakawa et al. (2011). It lays the foundation for a new parameterization pathway in the era of high-resolution numerical modeling of the atmosphere. The key parameter in this approach is convective cloud fraction. In conventional parameterization, it is assumed that <<1. This assumption is no longer valid when horizontal resolution of numerical models approaches a few to a few tens kilometers, since in such situations convective cloud fraction can be comparable to unity. Therefore, they argue that the conventional approach to parameterizing convective transport must include a factor 1 - in order to unify the parameterization for the full range of model resolutions so that it is scale-aware and valid for large convective cloud fractions. While AW13’s approach provides important guidance for future convective parameterization development, in this note we intend to show that the conventional approach already has this scale awareness factor 1 - built in, although not recognized for the last forty years. Therefore, it should work well even in situations of large convective cloud fractions in high-resolution numerical models.
The 3D geologic model for the Fallon for site was constructed in EarthVision software using methods similar to (Moeck et al., 2009, 2010; Faulds et al., 2010b; Jolie et al., 2012, 2015; Hinz et al., 2013a; Siler and Faulds, 2013; Siler et al., 2016a, b) - References are included in archive. The model contains 48 faults (numbered 1-48), and 4 stratigraphic surfaces from oldest to youngest (1) undivided Mesozoic basement, consisting of Mesozoic metasedimentary, metavolcanic, and plutonic units (Mzu); (2) Miocene volcanic and interbedded sedimentary rocks, consisting primarily of basaltic and basaltic andesite lava flows (Tvs); and (3) late Miocene to Pliocene (i.e., Neogene) undivided sedimentary rocks (Ns); and (4) Quaternary sediments (Qs). The two files contain points that describe nodes along the fault surfaces and stratigraphic horizons.
Highlights: • We introduce a capacity expansion and operation model for China's power system. • Reference carbon emissions of China's power sector exceed 5.1 billion tons in 2050. • Flexible district heating marginally increases the integration of renewable energy. • Ultra-high voltage transmission does not improve the integration by itself. • A complete spot market as a policy change could be crucial for the integration. - Abstract: This study demonstrates how a regional power system modeling tool could be applied to evaluate renewable energy development and emissions reduction with technology change and market reform. We introduce a capacity expansion and operation model with provincial details for China's power system – the Renewable Electricity Planning and Operation (REPO) Model. We compare the spatial and temporal variation of renewable energy development under three alternative scenarios that depict three potentially important technology and reform directions – flexible district heating technology, ultra-high voltage transmission technology and complete spot market to the reference scenario. Under the reference scenario, the share of non-hydro renewable energy in China's power sector will reach 11.3% and carbon emissions of the power sector will increase to 5.1 billion metric tons in 2050. With assumptions made in the flexible district heating technology, ultra-high voltage transmission technology and complete spot market scenario, the share of non-hydro renewable energy in the power sector could increase to 14.3%, 11.5%, and 23.7%, and carbon emissions of power sector will change by −0.3, +0.0, and −1.0 billion metric tons in 2050, respectively. Similar analyses could be extended to other developing countries that plan to deregulate and decarbonize their power systems.
Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.
We present a systematic analysis of state-of-the-art polarizable and flexible water models from a many-body perspective, with a specific focus on their ability to represent the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface of water from the gas to the liquid phase. Using coupled cluster data in the completed basis set limit as a reference, we examine the accuracy of the polarizable models in reproducing individual many-body contributions to interaction energies and harmonic frequencies of water clusters and compare their performance with that of MB-pol, an explicit many-body model that has been shown to correctly predict the properties of water across the entire phase diagram. Based on these comparisons, we use MB-pol as a reference to analyze the ability of the polarizable models to reproduce the energy landscape of liquid water under ambient conditions. We find that, while correctly reproducing the energetics of minimum-energy structures, the polarizable models examined in this study suffer from inadequate representations of many-body effects for distorted configurations. To investigate the role played by geometry-dependent representations of 1-body charge distributions in reproducing coupled cluster data for both interaction and many-body energies, we introduce a simplified version of MB-pol that adopts fixed atomic charges and demonstrate that the new model retains the same accuracy as the original MB-pol model. Based on the analyses presented in this study, we believe that future developments of both polarizable and explicit many-body models should continue in parallel and would benefit from synergistic efforts aimed at integrating the best aspects of the two theoretical/computational frameworks.
Accurate exchange–correlation (XC) potentials for three-dimensional systems–via solution of the inverse density functional theory (DFT) problem–are now available to test the quality of DFT approximations. Herein, the exact XC potential for seven molecules–dihydrogen at four different bond-lengths, lithium hydride, water, and ortho-benzyne–are computed from full configuration interaction reference densities. These are compared to model XC potentials from nonlocal (B3LYP, HSE06, SCAN0, and M08-HX) and semilocal/local (SCAN, PBE, and PW92) XC functionals. Whereas for most systems, relative errors in the ground-state densities are O(10 –3 –10 –2 ) , the model XC potentials have much higher errors of O(10 –1 –10 0 ) . Among the model XC functionals, SCAN0 offers the best agreement with the exact XC potential, underlining the significance of satisfying exact conditions as well as including nonlocal effects in XC functionals. This work indicates that tests against the exact XC potential will provide a promising new direction for building more accurate XC functionals for DFT.
The field reversed configuration (FRC), such as studied in the C-2W experiment at TAE Technologies, is an attractive candidate for realizing a nuclear fusion reactor. In an FRC, kinetic ion effects play the majority role in macroscopic stability, which allows global stability studies to make use of fluid-kinetic hybrid (also referred to as Ohm's law) models wherein ions are treated kinetically while electrons are treated as a fluid. The development and validation of such a hybrid particle-in-cell algorithm in the Exascale Computing Project code WarpX are reported here. Implementation of this model in the WarpX framework benefits from the numerical efficiency of WarpX as well as its scalability on large HPC systems and portability to different architectures. Performance benchmarks of the new algorithm for large, 3-dimensional, full device simulations from the Perlmutter supercomputer are presented. Results of a series of FRC simulations are discussed in which the impact of two-fluid effects on the tilt-mode growth rate was studied. It was observed that, in agreement with previous Hall-MHD studies, two-fluid effects have a stabilizing impact on the tilt mode.
Understanding soil water, groundwater, and shallow surface water dynamics as an integrated hydrological system is critical for understanding the Earth’s critical zone, the thin outer layer at our planet’s surface where vegetation, soil, rock, and gases interact to regulate the environment. Computational tools that take this view of soil moisture and shallow surface flows as a single integrated system are typically referred to as integrated surface/subsurface hydrology models. We extend the open-source, highly parallel, subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to accommodate surface flows. In contrast to most previous implementations, we do not represent a distinct surface system. Instead, the vertical gradient in hydraulic head at the land surface is neglected, which allows the surface flow system to be eliminated and incorporated directly into the subsurface system. This tight coupling approach leads to a robust capability and also greatly simplifies implementation in existing subsurface simulators such as PFLOTRAN. Successful comparisons to independent numerical solutions build confidence in the approximation and implementation. Example simulations of the Walker Branch and East Fork Poplar Creek watersheds near Oak Ridge, Tennessee demonstrate the robustness of the approach in geometrically complex applications. The lack of a robust integrated surface/subsurface hydrology capability had been a barrier to PFLOTRAN’s use in critical zone studies. This work addresses that capability gap, thus enabling PFLOTRAN as a community platform for building integrated models of the critical zone.
In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.
Abstract Some existing approaches to modelling the thermodynamics of moist air make approximations that break thermodynamic consistency , such that the resulting thermodynamics does not obey the first and second laws or has other inconsistencies. Recently, an approach to avoid such inconsistency has been suggested: the use of thermodynamic potentials in terms of their natural variables , from which all thermodynamic quantities and relationships (equations of state) are derived. In this article, we develop this approach for unapproximated moist‐air thermodynamics and two widely used approximations: the constant‐ approximation and the dry heat capacities approximation. The (consistent) constant‐ approximation is particularly attractive because it leads to, with the appropriate choice of thermodynamic variable, adiabatic dynamics that depend only on total mass and are independent of the breakdown between water forms. Additionally, a wide variety of material from different sources in the literature on thermodynamics in atmospheric modelling is brought together. It is hoped that this article provides a comprehensive reference for the use of thermodynamic potentials in atmospheric modelling, especially for the three systems considered here.
Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool needs to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as “CMORization”. While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing of “native” climate model output, i.e., operational output produced by running the climate model through the standard workflow of the corresponding modeling institute. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool's preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitude–longitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool's regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids. Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; at the moment, only surface variables are available), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSL-CM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added.
The subject of this work is the development of models for the numerical simulation of matter, momentum, and energy balance in heterogeneous materials. These are materials that consist of multiple phases or species or that are structured on some (perhaps many) scale(s). By computational mechanics we mean to refer generally to the standard type of modeling that is done at the level of macroscopic balance laws (mass, momentum, energy). We will refer to the flow or flux of these quantities in a generalized sense as transport. At issue here are the forms of the governing equations in these complex materials which are potentially strongly inhomogeneous below some correlation length scale and are yet homogeneous on larger length scales. The question then becomes one of how to model this behavior and what are the proper multi-scale equations to capture the transport mechanisms across scales. To address this we look to the area of generalized stochastic process that underlie the transport processes in homogeneous materials. The archetypal example being the relationship between a random walk or Brownian motion stochastic processes and the associated Fokker-Planck or diffusion equation. Here we are interested in how this classical setting changes when inhomogeneities or correlations in structure are introduced into the problem. Aspects of non-classical behavior need to be addressed, such as non-Fickian behavior of the mean-squared-displacement (MSD) and non-Gaussian behavior of the underlying probability distribution of jumps. We present an experimental technique and apparatus built to investigate some of these issues. We also discuss diffusive processes in inhomogeneous systems, and the role of the chemical potential in diffusion of hard spheres is considered. Also, the relevance to liquid metal solutions is considered. Finally we present an example of how inhomogeneities in material microstructure introduce fluctuations at the meso-scale for a thermal conduction problem. These fluctuations due to random microstructures also provide a means of characterizing the aleatory uncertainty in material properties at the mesoscale.
Highlights: • A network of 23 low-cost PM monitors was deployed across an urban area. • Land use regression models predict the hourly intra-urban PM variations. • Coefficients of determination for hourly PM predictions ranged 0.66–0.76. • Low-cost PM monitor data need to be carefully evaluated before use. • The combination of low-cost monitors and modeling provides useful PM estimates. Land-use regression (LUR) models provide location and time specific estimates of exposure to air pollution and thereby improve the sensitivity of health effects models. However, they require pollutant concentrations at multiple locations along with land-use variables. Often, monitoring is performed over short durations using mobile monitoring with research-grade instruments. Low-cost PM monitors provide an alternative approach that increases the spatial and temporal resolution of the air quality data. LUR models were developed to predict hourly PM concentrations across a metropolitan area using PM concentrations measured simultaneously at multiple locations with low-cost monitors. Monitors were placed at 23 sites during the 2015/16 heating season. Monitors were externally calibrated using co-located measurements including a reference instrument (GRIMM particle spectrometer). LUR models for each hour of the day and weekdays/weekend days were developed using the deletion/substitution/addition algorithm. Coefficients of determination for hourly PM predictions ranged from 0.66 and 0.76 (average 0.7). The hourly-resolved LUR model results will be used in epidemiological studies to examine if and how quickly, increases in ambient PM concentrations trigger adverse health events by reducing the exposure misclassification that arises from using less time resolved exposure estimates.
To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.
Curtailed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a zero-marginal-cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. Unlike traditional spinning reserve providers, however, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, which have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate knowledge of the PV PHL is essential. It ensures that enough headroom is reserved by the PV plants to deliver the award services in real time and informs feasible dispatch decisions made by the market operator. To tackle this challenge, a novel reference-control grouping-based PV plant reserve estimation method has been proposed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under past projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. The estimation method separates inverters within a plant into two groups: a control group and a reference group. While the reference group is reserved to operate at its PHL, the control group can be curtailed to provide the grid services. Real-time outputs from the reference inverters are used to estimate the PHL for the whole plant based on the ratio between capacities of the reference group and of the plant. This work further enhances the methodology by (1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; (2) automating the reference inverter selection through correlation analysis; (3) considering estimation look-ahead windows; and (4) applying to regional spinning reserve estimation. Significant performance improvement has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO, Southern Company, and Terabase Energy. Compared with the original scaling method, the newly proposed machine learning-based approach reduces the estimation errors by 30% and 13% at the plant level and region level, respectively. Results obtained from this project are intended to be used by grid operators, market operators, balancing authorities, and PV plant owners and operators to facilitate PV participation in ancillary service markets. Regulators, policymakers, and system planners can also consider the results of this work in their decision-making processes. In addition to the performance improvement on the existing reference-control based grouping method, we also investigated how the variability of PV generation from a single PV inverter can be used to represent the variability of PV generation at the plant level.
ANSI/ANS-8.1-1998;2007, Nuclear Criticality Safety in Operations with Fissionable Material Outside Reactors, and ANSI/ANS-8.24-2007, Validation of Neutron Transport Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety Calculations, require validation of a computer code and the associated data through benchmark evaluations based on physical experiments. The performance of the code and data are validated by comparing the calculated and the benchmark results. A SCALE procedure has been established to generate a Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID). This procedure provides a framework for preparing, peer reviewing, and controlling models and data sets derived from benchmark definitions so that the models and data can be used with confidence. The procedure ensures that the models and data were correctly generated using appropriate references with documented checks and reviews. Configuration management is implemented to prevent inadvertent modification of the models and data or inclusion of models that have not been subjected to the rigorous review process. VALID entries for criticality safety are based on critical experiments documented in the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (IHECSBE). The findings of a criticality safety validation of SCALE 6.1 utilizing the benchmark models vetted in the VALID library at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are summarized here.