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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Summary for Z-Petawatt Laser Activities (CY2019)

The high-energy upgrade of the Z-Petawatt (ZPW) laser system involved a shot hiatus starting in October 2018 to allow the installation of full-aperture optics in the chain, including in the main amplifier section as well as in the branches associated with the ZPW compressor and co-injection (the narrowband nanosecond operating mode that is co-bored with Z-Beamlet). Laser shots resumed May 1 st , with most shots since being in the ns mode to reduce complexity (while conditioning optics and calibrating diagnostics) as well as to support experimental requests. To facilitate experimental needs while a final full-sized co-injection optic was prepared, a sub-apertured beam has been used for experimental applications and a full-apertured beam has been used to validate the system. In the latter case, the beam is directed to a large calorimeter placed before branching occurs to the ZPW compressor or co-injection. As of September 2019, full-aperture co-injection shots had ramped up to 960J in 2.3ns, with many cross-calibrations being used to map out a relative humidity dependency in the leaky diagnostic mirror. Several such cross-calibration shots have been done using a chirped pulse seed as well, verifying that the diagnostic calibrations are valid in both broadband and narrow-band modes. Summarizing, since May 1 st of 2019 when shots resumed, 93 full system shots were performed with the ZPW laser. This included 2 co-injection shots with ZBL into Z (in support of MagLIF), 26 Pecos gas cell shots (in support of MagLIF), 11 Conchas gas cell shots (in support of UXI applications development), 6 Jemez shots (in support of backlighter development), and 48 calorimeter shots (in support of validating the system performance). Of these 93 shots, 45 shots were in conjunction with ZBL.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Characteristics of Ultralow Aspect Ratio Toroidal Plasmas and Non-Solenoidal Startup and Edge Stability Studies at Near-Unity Aspect Ratio (Final Report)

This grant supported a long-term research and development program to explore the physics and technology of spherical tokamak (ST) plasma behavior at near-unity aspect ratio ( A ). The PEGASUS Toroidal Experiment is a university-scale ( R ) ~ 0.40 m, α ~ .35 m, I p ≤ 0.3 MA, B T ≤ 0.15 T) experiment that accesses A → 1, to provide large values of the normalized plasma current, I N = I p /α B T , or equivalently the toroidal field utilization factor I p / I TF . The research activities focused on: 1) developing the technique of Local Helicity Injection (LHI) as a viable means of initiating and growing an ST plasma without the use of a central solenoid; 2) exploring the equilibrium and stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas at extremely low aspect ratio; and 3) obtaining new insights in the properties of the enhanced confinement H-mode regime at A ~ 1. The initial (Phase I) facility employed a unique high-stress central solenoid Ohmic for current drive and heating with simple magnet current waveforms. A subsequent major upgrade (Phase II) offered more flexible control of the plasma evolution along with a powerful LHI system for plasma initiation, heating and sustainment. The LHI technique consists of injection of high-density current streams into vacuum toroidal and vertical magnetic fields. These streams become unstable and support magnetic reconnection to allow the system to relax into a tokamak-like magnetic configuration. This program focused on: 1) development of electron current sources that provide sufficiently high injection currents in the challenging edge plasma region; 2) validation of theoretical limits to achievable I p arising from magnetic helicity and energy conservation plus absolute limits arising from relaxation to a minimal energy states; 3) tests of a power balance model to describe the evolution of the plasma current I p (t); and 4) study of magnetic fluctuations and their role in the I p evolution. This culminated in the production of toroidal currents of I p ≥ 0.2 MA with only ~8 kA of injected current. Operation with Ohmic induction alone in Phase I created plasmas with soft limits on the achievable I p and field utilization ( I p / I TF ~ 1) due to the onset of large low-order (2/1 or 3/2) internal resonant tearing modes. With the expanded capabilities in Phase II operation, methods employed to mitigate those modes and achieve I p / I TF > 1 were: 1) I TF ramp-downs; 2) non-solenoidal startup via LHI; and 3) extremely low I TF Ohmic operations assisted by LHI current injector pre-ionization. Extensive use of LHI-driven startup and drive for non-solenoidal operation produced favorable current profiles to stably operate tokamak plasmas with unprecedentedly high I N = I p / aB T ~ 15 and I p / I TF > 2. With strong reconnection-driven anomalous ion heating, this in turn provided access to tokamak plasmas with B t up to 100%, a world record 2 times higher than that previously achieved in advanced or spherical tokamaks. This high B t regime had a large fraction (~50%) of the plasma volume in a region of an absolute minimum- B configuration. The MHD stability limit in this regime was the ideal external kink mode without a stabilizing wall. These results provided the first demonstration of access to tokamak plasmas with very high B t , high i N , high elongation κ, and low internal inductance ℓ i , and as such served as a proof-ofprinciple for access to this long-sought ST regime. The naturally low B T needed for stability at A ≤ 1.2 reduces the L-H mode power threshold, P LH , so that H-mode plasmas were achieved with Ohmic heating alone. The power threshold for the transition to the H-mode regime was found to be 10× the accepted values from the ITER international scaling, confirming initial trends indicated by experiments on MAST and NSTX, and suggesting that the physics behind this transition is not yet fully understood. The density dependence of the transition and the observed insensitivity to whether the plasma is bounded by a limiter or magnetic divertor are consistent with the recent FM 3 model. Multiple unstable toroidal magnetic modes were measured during ELM (Edge Localized Mode) crashes, with generally lower toroidal mode numbers than seen at higher A , which was attributed to the larger peeling mode instability drive at low A . First-ever edge current profile measurements through an ELM crash showed current-carrying filaments were generated, as seen in ELM simulations and in electromagnetic blob transport theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Washington Clean Energy Fund: Energy Storage System Consolidated Performance Test Results

This report provides an overview of test results for four energy storage systems funded under the Washington Clean Energy Fund deployed at three utilities in Washington State. Integration of energy storage into the U.S. grid has been gathering momentum across the industry, especially as penetration of power generated by renewable resources increases. Several states have storage procurement targets to deal with a variety of issues, such as afternoon total system load ramping requirements, frequency regulation/control, and integration power generated from by renewable resources. This report presents the performance test results for battery energy storage systems (BESS) funded by the Washington Clean Energy Fund (CEF) 1 Program ($\$$14.3 million in state funding supporting a total investment of $\$$43 million). For each project, the technical attributes of the BESS were tested, defined, and evaluated in detail. These projects were funded jointly by Avista, the Snohomish Public Utility District (SnoPUD), Puget Sound Energy (PSE), the Washington CEF, and the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

sCO 2 Brayton System Market Analysis

Supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle systems (sCO 2 ) offer potential benefits over traditional steam plants. The changing economics of the electricity sector favors solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). Ultimately, the ability of sCO 2 systems to compete depends on the economics and ability to offer additional benefits to the market, such as the ability for dry cooling and their compact size. Updated results show that the projected LCOE for Brayton systems in the 100 to 300 MWe size range are between ${$}$44.8 and ${$}$56.1/MWh (4.48 and 5.61 cents/kWh). This report presents screening tools for assessing the potential market size and concludes that while at these LCOE estimates sCO 2 systems can compete directly against NGCC, there are many hurdles to commercialization, including the need to demonstrate long-term operations at low-cost and ability to quickly ramp for integration with intermittent resources. Additional customer discovery is necessary to fully understand the ability of this technology to solve customer problems that other technologies cannot.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sequim Campus Master Plan

Based in Richland, Washington, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of ten U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) national laboratories. PNNL is DOE’s premier chemistry, earth sciences, and data analytics laboratory, delivering vital mission impacts in energy resiliency and national security. PNNL has 19 core capabilities, each a powerful combination of world-class staff, state-of-the- art equipment, and mission-ready facilities. These capabilities represent a collective set of skills and a body of world-leading scientific and engineering work that provides exceptional value and mission delivery to DOE, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and other federal agencies and industry through strategic partnership projects on a not-to-interfere basis. Currently operated by Battelle Memorial Institute, PNNL occupies more than 2.3 million gross square feet (GSF) of buildings and employs approximately 4,700 staff members. PNNL has implemented a rolling 10-year campus strategy, initiated in fiscal year 2013, designed to deliver the foundation for the multidisciplinary science and engineering expertise, equipment, instrumentation, facilities, and infrastructure required to continue providing exceptional value and mission delivery. This strategy is incorporated into PNNL’s annual Laboratory Plan, which serves as DOE-SC’s equivalent of the Five- Year Site Plan required by DOE Order 430.1C Chg. 1, Real Property Asset Management. The PNNL Sequim Campus is located in Clallam County, just outside of Sequim, Washington. PNNL Sequim builds upon a rich history of research related to marine and coastal resources, environmental chemistry, water resources modeling, ecotoxicology, biotechnology, and national security. Facilities at the PNNL Sequim Campus were designed to take advantage of two unique locational assets: the pristine coastal ocean water in Sequim Bay and the region’s exceptionally clean air. Research facilities on the waterfront are supplied with up to 200 gallons per minute (gpm) of seawater and/or groundwater that enables research on aquatic systems ranging from fully seawater to fresh water, with an onsite water treatment system that removes all biological and hazardous chemical residues prior to discharge. Multiple large seawater tanks outside the waterfront laboratories, along with a boat ramp, pier, and floating dock, enable lab-to-field research. The uplands facility takes advantage of the amazing air quality and is built and operated to enable ultratrace chemical/radiological analytical chemistry. This combination of capabilities is not available at any other marine laboratory in the nation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cathode Modeling and Diode Performance in a Planar Geometry using Space-charge-limited Emission

Space-charge-limited (SCL) emission parameters are varied to study the performance effects in a planar diode using an electromagnetic particle-in-cell simulation software suite, EMPIRE. Oscillations in the simulations are found and linked to the emission parameters, namely the breakdown threshold, the emission delay time, and the current density ramp time. The oscillations are suggested to be a transverse oscillator due to the perfect magnetic conductor boundary condition in steady-state operation and the formation of a virtual cathode in the diode driven by the SCL boundary condition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NRC Multiphysics Analysis Capability Deployment FY2020: Part 3

This report details progress and activities of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) project “Development and Modeling Sup- port for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors.” The tasks completed for this report are: Task2c: Explicit modeling of pebble transient temperature response. In this simulation, the 400 MWth Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) design, PBMR- 400, experiences a 20-second power ramp from 100% to 150% power. This is followed by a similar reduction in the power back to 100%. Several multiscale pebble coupling approaches are tested with one pebble per mesh element in the active core region. The results show good conservation behavior and the stability of the coupling.; Extended scope part 1: An assessment of the computational efficiency of the Discontinuous Finite Element Method (DFEM) heat transfer solver shows good scalability. The DFEM solver is a factor of 4 more expensive in solution time than the Finite Element Method (FEM) solver for heat transfer problems due to the increased number of degrees of freedom. Nonetheless, the DFEM approach provides the user with the flexibility to model gap heat transfer problems.; Extended scope part 2: The GapHeatTransferInterfaceMaterial was improved to give the user increased flexibility with the modeling of heat transfer through gaps with the DFEM solver. A number of gap parameters can now be coupled both through functions and variables.; Extended scope part 3: Demonstration of how the gap width between hexagonal fuel cells can be calculated during a heat-up transient and used in the GapHeatTransferInterface model. A full-domain DFEM model with gap expansion is coupled to a SubApp that models the thermal expansion of the base plate. The results show the expected physical behavior, although have not been fully bench-marked at this point in time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 12: Adaptive Management Related to Marine Renewable Energy

As the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry is rapidly ramped up from single devices to commercial-scale deployments, developers and regulators will need evidence of the environmental effects of MRE to inform project development and consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes. Uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of novel RE technologies on sensitive marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes means that even robust baseline environmental information cannot comprehensively address all pre-deployment knowledge gaps. Tools and practical approaches are needed to help with the sustainable development of the industry. Adaptive management (AM), also referred to as learning by/while doing, enables projects to be deployed incrementally, despite uncertainty, in a way that prevents unacceptable harm to the marine environment. If rigorously implemented, this approach may provide a reliable mechanism for closing knowledge gaps, thereby retiring risks for future MRE developments. This chapter explores and suggests a pathway for applying a passive approach to AM for the consenting of single devices and array-scale MRE projects. Complementary information is available online at https://tethys.pnnl.gov/state-of-thescience-2020 -supplementaryadaptive-management. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-12-adaptive-management

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Technical Cooperation on Verification and its role in Trust Building [Slides]

Technical cooperation is a low-cost way to initiate movement in the arms control sphere and offers an operational path forward for the reestablishment of working relationships built on trust not freely given, but gained through experience, and a shared vision of the future; Political will alone, though necessary for cooperation to take place, is insufficient in the face of structural obstacles. For effective cooperation to have a future, countries must have both political will and complementary and conducive institutional structures; Cooperation at the intergovernmental level seems unlikely at this time. However, if relationships with international partners continue to be strained as development of new offensive technologies continues, it is very possible that future movement in technical arms control cooperation could again be initiated in the nongovernmental sphere; As the stewards of the majority of the world’s nuclear stockpile, the United States and the Russian Federation have a unique role to play in shaping global norms on arms control verification and cooperation; it is in their mutual interest now to begin to find technical solutions to the question of verification as other countries ramp up production.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NA-22 Quarterly Report: April-June, 2020

At LLNL we contribute to two projects in NNSA-IAEC Science and Technology Working Group Area V: Basic Science of Waste Management & Subsurface Science. The motivation behind Topic Area V is to evaluate the scientific and safety case for an intermediate borehole to house Israel’s nuclear waste. WM1 (SNL lead) is Thermomechanical Damage (initially called Damage Accumulation and Wellbore Stability). This work focuses on evaluating the damage to the host rock induced by excavation and heat released from a possible radioactive waste repository/borehole. WM2 (LLNL lead) is Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in Carbonate Rock (initially called Colloidal Transport of Radionuclides). This work focuses on better understanding the transport of radionuclides and colloids from a nuclear waste repository/borehole in a vadose zone environment through experimentation and modeling. In the second quarter (this report) our work has been delayed in part due to COVID-19. LLNL went into shelter in place (SIP), minimum safe operations mid-March. Operations at LLNL have been slowly ramping up with 50% of the workforce back onsite in limited capacity and telecommuting widely used. The good news is that our labs opened up the last week in June and experiments are expected to start up again for WM2 Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in July. LLNL’s contribution to WM1 Thermochemical Damage modeling efforts also started back up in late June. We expect to be able to catch up on much of our work by the end of next quarter. The three national laboratories communication on a bi-monthly basis to make sure Area V projects remain on track and we have a monthly conference call with our Israeli counterparts to make sure we are communicating priorities and coordinating project details.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

NA-22 Quarterly Report: April-June, 2020

At LLNL we contribute to two projects in NNSA-IAEC Science and Technology Working Group Area V: Basic Science of Waste Management & Subsurface Science. The motivation behind Topic Area V is to evaluate the scientific and safety case for an intermediate borehole to house Israel’s nuclear waste. WM1 (SNL lead) is Thermomechanical Damage (initially called Damage Accumulation and Wellbore Stability). This work focuses on evaluating the damage to the host rock induced by excavation and heat released from a possible radioactive waste repository/borehole. WM2 (LLNL lead) is Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in Carbonate Rock (initially called Colloidal Transport of Radionuclides). This work focuses on better understanding the transport of radionuclides and colloids from a nuclear waste repository/borehole in a vadose zone environment through experimentation and modeling. In the second quarter (this report) our work has been delayed in part due to COVID-19. LLNL went into shelter in place (SIP), minimum safe operations mid-March. Operations at LLNL have been slowly ramping up with 50% of the workforce back onsite in limited capacity and telecommuting widely used. The good news is that our labs opened up the last week in June and experiments are expected to start up again for WM2 Radionuclide Facilitated Transport in July. LLNL’s contribution to WM1 Thermochemical Damage modeling efforts also started back up in late June. We expect to be able to catch up on much of our work by the end of next quarter. The three national laboratories communication on a bi-monthly basis to make sure Area V projects remain on track and we have a monthly conference call with our Israeli counterparts to make sure we are communicating priorities and coordinating project details.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flexible Nuclear Energy for Clean Energy Systems

As part of the Nuclear Innovation: Clean Energy Future initiative, this report describes flexibility in nuclear systems, the value it can bring, and international experiences surrounding flexible nuclear energy. Flexible nuclear energy for this report is defined as “The ability of nuclear energy generation to economically provide energy services at the time and location they are needed by end-users. These energy services can include both electric and non-electric applications utilizing both traditional nuclear power plants and advanced integrated systems.” Flexibility in nuclear systems is enabled by three main mechanisms: core ramping, integrated energy systems with multiple byproducts, and thermal storage. The value of this flexibility on a $\$$/MW and a $\$$/MWh basis can be estimated through a combination of physics and economics modeling. International agencies describe their experiences in operating flexible nuclear systems and describe their plans for increasing nuclear flexibility in a clean energy system, likely with a high penetration of variable renewable energy.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Electric Power Grid and Natural Gas Network Operations and Coordination

In this report, we present findings from three studies related to the coordination of natural gas and electricity system operations. We first propose and demonstrate a modeling platform for examining the interdependence of natural gas and electricity networks based on a direct current unit-commitment and economic dispatch model for the power system and a transient hydraulic gas model for the gas system. We use this platform to analyze the value of day-ahead coordination of power and natural gas network operations and to show the importance of considering gas system constraints when analyzing power systems operation with high penetration of gas generators and variable renewable energy sources. In the second study, we utilize our modeling platform to consider the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 809, issued in 2015 to improve day-ahead and intraday coordination of power and gas systems. Finally, in the third study we expand our modeling platform to focus on market-based coordination of electricity and natural gas system operations for a real system, namely a subset of the power and gas networks in the Front Range region of Colorado. We use real system data to evaluate the benefits of coordination operations under different conditions, including different levels of renewable penetration and the use of time-variant, shaped flow nominations. Our results indicate that coordination at various timescales can contribute to a reduction in curtailed gas in high-stress periods (such as those with large ramps in gas offtakes) and a reduction in energy consumption of gas compressor stations. We find that intraday coordination can reduce total power system production costs and natural gas deliverability constraints, yielding cost and reliability benefits. We observe these benefits for the test system as well as in the Colorado case study, where we find that coordination and shaped flows may provide additional value for systems with high penetration of variable renewable energy. Together, these three studies demonstrate a pathway for integrated gas and electricity grid modeling and for studying the benefits of coordinated operations of these increasingly interdependent energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Initiative for Plutonium and Actinide Missions

Recognizing the dynamic environment and challenges facing the plutonium and actinide missions at Los Alamos National Laboratory over the next decade, Laboratory leadership established Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 Laboratory Agenda Item 2.6. This agenda item calls for the development and implementation of an integrated initiative for plutonium and actinide missions at Los Alamos. Over the next decade, Los Alamos has been asked to significantly ramp up pit production to help address nuclear stockpile and nuclear deterrence needs, heat source production to support expansion in space exploration, evaluation of stockpile returns, processing operations in support of nonproliferation, and the actinide science to support all of these efforts. All of this must be accomplished while significantly increasing the size of our plutonium and actinide missions workforce and modernizing and updating critical infrastructure. Only through enhanced integration of science, technology, and engineering (ST&E), manufacturing, and mission operations will we enable achievement of these critical missions. An overall summary of the plutonium and actinide missions is included in Figure 1 on Page 3 and Figure 2 on Page 4 summarizes our goals, objectives, FY 2021 recommended actions and internal strategic priorities that are key elements of our integrated initiative.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

FY20 Report for Instrumentation Development for the Transient Testing Program

This yearly report provides a summary of accomplishments carried out under funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Technology Research and Development (NTRD) program for in-pile instrumentation supporting the transient testing program in FY20. These activities were performed in support of cross-cutting transient testing experiment objective. In this year, specific instrument R&D has been a lesser priority to years past, with complementary instrumentation R&D being ramped up under the DOE Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Program. The primary focus of the work in FY20 pertain to defining a process and system, developed over the past several years, for developing, qualifying, and deploying instrumentation in in-pile experiments. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of these outcomes and be a reference for researchers that are interested in developing in-pile instrumentation, with a particular emphasis on the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility for deployment.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Final Report for ARPA-E NODES "Real-Time Optimization and Control of Next-Generation Distribution Infrastructure" Project

The project examined next-generation power distribution systems with high levels of power- electronics-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) that include: renewable energy systems (RESs), energy-storage devices, electric vehicles, fuel cells, small-scale diesel generators, and controllable loads. The project developed a comprehensive distribution- network management framework that unifies real-time voltage and frequency control with network-wide energy management under an integrated framework. The aim of the project was to: i) systematically optimize network-wide operation and congruently regulate voltages and frequency in the face of high volatility induced by rapidly varying RES and uncontrolled loads; ii) facilitate high renewable integration beyond 50% on an energy basis; iii) meet power-quality requirements and operational constraints; and, iv) respect response, ramp- time, and hold-time requirements for synthetic frequency and regulating reserves via fast- and longer-term dynamic energy management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cooling Performance Testing of Attaway's Negative Pressure CDU

Attaway is a recently installed High-Performance Computing (HPC) machine at Sandia National Labs that is 70% water-cooled and 30% air-cooled. This machine, supplied by Penguin Computing, uses a novel new cooling system from Chilldyne that operates in a vacuum, preventing water leaks. If water-cooling is to fail, fans inside of each node will ramp up to do 100% of the cooling on Attaway. Various tests were completed on Attaway to determine the robustness of its cooling system as well as its ability to respond to sudden changes in states. These changes include an immediate change from an idle compute load to full load (Linpack) as well as running Linpack without any water cooling from Attaway's CDUs. It was discovered that Attaway could respond to sudden compute load changes very well, never throttling any nodes. When Linpack was run without water cooling, the system was able to operate for a short time before throttling happened.

42 ENGINEERING↗