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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Memory-based parameterization with differentiable solver: Application to Lorenz ’96

Physical parameterizations (or closures) are used as representations of unresolved subgrid processes within weather and global climate models or coarse-scale turbulent models, whose resolutions are too coarse to resolve small-scale processes. These parameterizations are typically grounded on physically based, yet empirical, representations of the underlying small-scale processes. Machine learning-based parameterizations have recently been proposed as an alternative solution and have shown great promise to reduce uncertainties associated with the parameterization of small-scale processes. Yet, those approaches still show some important mismatches that are often attributed to the stochasticity of the considered process. This stochasticity can be due to coarse temporal resolution, unresolved variables, or simply to the inherent chaotic nature of the process. To address these issues, we propose a new type of parameterization (closure), which is built using memory-based neural networks, to account for the non-instantaneous response of the closure and to enhance its stability and prediction accuracy. We apply the proposed memory-based parameterization, with differentiable solver, to the Lorenz ’96 model in the presence of a coarse temporal resolution and show its capacity to predict skillful forecasts over a long time horizon of the resolved variables compared to instantaneous parameterizations. This approach paves the way for the use of memory-based parameterizations for closure problems.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global patterns and climate drivers of water-use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems deduced from satellite-based datasets and carbon cycle models

Our aim is to investigate how ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) varies spatially under different climate conditions, and how spatial variations in WUE differ from those of transpiration-based water-use efficiency (WUE t ) and transpiration-based inherent water-use efficiency (IWUE t ). LocationGlobal terrestrial ecosystems. We investigated spatial patterns of WUE using two datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) and four biosphere model estimates of GPP and ET. Spatial relationships between WUE and climate variables were further explored through regression analyses. Global WUE estimated by two satellite-based datasets is 1.9 ± 0.1 and 1.8 ± 0.6g C m -2 mm -1 lower than the simulations from four process-based models (2.0 ± 0.3g C m -2 mm -1 ) but comparable within the uncertainty of both approaches. In both satellite-based datasets and process models, precipitation is more strongly associated with spatial gradients of WUE for temperate and tropical regions, but temperature dominates north of 50 degrees N. WUE also increases with increasing solar radiation at high latitudes. The values of WUE from datasets and process-based models are systematically higher in wet regions (with higher GPP) than in dry regions. WUE t shows a lower precipitation sensitivity than WUE, which is contrary to leaf- and plant-level observations. IWUE t , the product of WUE t and water vapour deficit, is found to be rather conservative with spatially increasing precipitation, in agreement with leaf- and plant-level measurements. In conclusion, WUE, WUE t and IWUE t produce different spatial relationships with climate variables. In dry ecosystems, water losses from evaporation from bare soil, uncorrelated with productivity, tend to make WUE lower than in wetter regions. Yet canopy conductance is intrinsically efficient in those ecosystems and maintains a higher IWUEt. This suggests that the responses of each component flux of evapotranspiration should be analysed separately when investigating regional gradients in WUE, its temporal variability and its trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-AB-BRA-04: Dosimetric Evaluation of MR-Guided HDR Brachytherapy Planning for Cervical Cancer

Purpose: To perform a retrospective study on 16 patients that had both CT and T2-weighted MR scans done at first fraction using the Utrecht CT/MR applicator (Elekta Brachytherapy) in order to evaluate uncertainties associated with an MR-only planning workflow. Methods: MR-workflow uncertainties were classified in three categories: reconstruction, registration and contouring. A systematic comparison of the CT and MR contouring, manual reconstruction and optimization process was performed to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties on the recommended GEC ESTRO DVH parameters: D90% and V100% for HR-CTV as well as D2cc for bladder, rectum, sigmoid colon and small bowel. This comparison was done using the following four steps: 1. Catheter reconstruction done on MR images with original CT-plan contours and dwell times. 2. OAR contours adjusted on MR images with original CT-plan reconstruction and dwell times. 3. Both reconstruction and contours done on MR images with original CT-plan dwell times. 4. Entire MR-based workflow optimized dwell times reimported to the original CT-plan. Results: The MR-based reconstruction process showed average D2cc deviations of 4.5 ± 3.0%, 1.5 ± 2.0%, 2.5 ± 2.0% and 2.0 ± 1.0% for the bladder, rectum, sigmoid colon and small bowels respectively with a maximum of 10%, 6%, 6% and 4%. The HR-CTV’s D90% and V100% average deviations was found to be 4.0 ± 3.0%, and 2.0 ± 2.0% respectively with a maximum of 10% and 6%. Adjusting contours on MR-images was found to have a similar impact. Finally, the optimized MR-based workflow dwell times were found to still give acceptable plans when re-imported to the original CT-plan which validated the entire workflow. Conclusion: This work illustrates a systematic validation method for centers wanting to move towards an MR-only workflow. This work will be expanded to model based reconstruction, PD-weighted images and other types of applicators.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗
NASA NTRS1990

Attitude determination error analysis - General model and specific application

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The discussion includes models for both batch least-squares and sequential estimators, a specific dynamic model for attitude determination error analysis of a three-axis stabilized spacecraft equipped with strapdown gyros, and the incorporation of general attitude sensor observations. An analyst using this approach to perform an error analysis chooses a subset of the spacecraft parameters to be 'solve-for' parameters, which are to be estimated, and another subset to be 'consider' parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The result of the error analysis is an indication of overall uncertainties in the 'solve-for' parameters, as well as the contributions of the various error sources to these uncertainties, including those of errors in the a priori 'solve-for' estimates, of measurement noise, of dynamic noise (also known as process noise or plant noise), and of 'consider' parameter uncertainties. The analysis of attitude, star tracker alignment, and gyro bias uncertainties for the Gamma Ray Observatory spacecraft provide a specific example of the use of a general-purpose software package incorporating these models.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties During the M-PACE Field Campaign

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly-continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This dataset provides a set of 25 samples from the M-PACE field campaign, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this dataset include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this dataset as well. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this dataset are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties Over the NSA Site

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This data set provides more than 1800 samples of cloud-base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this data set include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this data set. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this data set are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiparametric Programming in Process Systems Engineering: Recent Developments and Path Forward

The inevitable presence of uncertain parameters in critical applications of process optimization can lead to undesirable or infeasible solutions. For this reason, optimization under parametric uncertainty was, and continues to be a core area of research within Process Systems Engineering. Multiparametric programming is a strategy that offers a holistic perspective for the solution of this class of mathematical programming problems. Specifically, multiparametric programming theory enables the derivation of the optimal solution as a function of the uncertain parameters, explicitly revealing the impact of uncertainty in optimal decision-making. By taking advantage of such a relationship, new breakthroughs in the solution of challenging formulations with uncertainty have been created. Apart from that, researchers have utilized multiparametric programming techniques to solve deterministic classes of problems, by treating specific elements of the optimization program as uncertain parameters. In the past years, there has been a significant number of publications in the literature involving multiparametric programming. The present review article covers recent theoretical, algorithmic, and application developments in multiparametric programming. Additionally, several areas for potential contributions in this field are discussed, highlighting the benefits of multiparametric programming in future research efforts.

Pappas, Iosif↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prospects for Surrogate Neutron Capture Measurements with Radioactive Ion Beams and GODDESS

Neutron capture reactions are responsible for the synthesis of almost all of the elements heavier than iron through the slow s-process, that proceeds close to the line of stability, and the rapid r-process, with very neutron-rich waiting points. Uncertainties in (n,γ) rates in neutron rich nuclei, especially near closed neu- tron shells, can have significant impact [1] on the predictions of final abundances for different astrophysical scenarios for the r process. Understanding (n,γ) rates on neutron-rich fission fragments is also important for nuclear forensics and stockpile stewardship science. Ratkiewicz et al. [2 and references therein] has recently demonstrated that the (d,pγ) reaction is a valid surrogate for (n,γ), where the formation of the compound nucleus from the breakup of the deuteron has been calculated in a reaction model and the subsequent measured gamma-decay probabilities are reproduced with standard level density and strength functions in a Bayesian approach. In parallel to the surrogate validation efforts, we have demonstrated that the (d,pγ) reaction can be measured in inverse kinematics with Gammasphere ORRUBA: Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies (GODDESS) [3] where the Gammasphere array of Compton-suppressed HPGe detectors is coupled to the Oak Ridge Rutgers University Barrel Array of position-sensitive silicon strip detectors. During the commissioning campaign we measured the (d,pγ) reaction with 134 Xe and 95 Mo beams, the latter to demonstrate the surrogate method in inverse kinematics. The present talk will present preliminary results from this campaign including γ-decay probabilities and prospects for surrogate (n,γ) measurements with 143 Ba fission-fragment beams.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Optimized pulses for the control of uncertain qubits

The construction of high-fidelity control fields that are robust to control, system, and/or surrounding environment uncertainties is a crucial objective for quantum information processing. Using the two-state Landau-Zener model for illustrative simulations of a controlled qubit, we generate optimal controls for π/2 and π pulses and investigate their inherent robustness to uncertainty in the magnitude of the drift Hamiltonian. Next, we construct a quantum-control protocol to improve system-drift robustness by combining environment-decoupling pulse criteria and optimal control theory for unitary operations. By perturbatively expanding the unitary time-evolution operator for an open quantum system, previous analysis of environment-decoupling control pulses has calculated explicit control-field criteria to suppress environment-induced errors up to (but not including) third order from π/2 and π pulses. We systematically integrate this criteria with optimal control theory, incorporating an estimate of the uncertain parameter to produce improvements in gate fidelity and robustness, demonstrated via a numerical example based on double quantum dot qubits. For the qubit model used in this work, postfacto analysis of the resulting controls suggests that realistic control-field fluctuations and noise may contribute just as significantly to gate errors as system and environment fluctuations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of neural networks uncertainties with applications to SAFARI-1 axial neutron flux profiles

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been widely used as a data-driven modelling tool in nuclear engineering. However, as a Machine Learning model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predictions are subjected to uncertainties originating from the noise in training data, incomplete coverage of the domain, and imperfect neural network architectures. In this work, we target at quantifying the prediction/approximation uncertainties of ANNs using Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), as well as Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) which are solved by variational inference. With a demonstration problem in which neural networks are used to predict the assembly axial neutron flux profiles, the results have shown that the three different neural network models (regular DNNs, DNNs solved with MCD and BNNs) can produce results that agree very well among each other and with the measurement data, on cycles that are not used in the training process. Besides the excellent generalization capability, the uncertainty bands produced by MCD and BNN agree very well, and in general, they can fully envelop the noisy measurement data points. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Validation of an In-Water, Tower-Shading Correction Scheme

Large offshore structures used for the deployment of optical instruments can significantly perturb the intensity of the light field surrounding the optical measurement point, where different portions of the visible spectrum are subject to different shadowing effects. These effects degrade the quality of the acquired optical data and can reduce the accuracy of several derived quantities, such as those obtained by applying bio-optical algorithms directly to the shadow-perturbed data. As a result, optical remote sensing calibration and validation studies can be impaired if shadowing artifacts are not fully accounted for. In this work, the general in-water shadowing problem is examined for a particular case study. Backward Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer computations- performed in a vertically stratified, horizontally inhomogeneous, and realistic ocean-atmosphere system are shown to accurately simulate the shadow-induced relative percent errors affecting the radiance and irradiance data profiles acquired close to an oceanographic tower. Multiparameter optical data processing has provided adequate representation of experimental uncertainties allowing consistent comparison with simulations. The more detailed simulations at the subsurface depth appear to be essentially equivalent to those obtained assuming a simplified ocean-atmosphere system, except in highly stratified waters. MC computations performed in the simplified system can be assumed, therefore, to accurately simulate the optical measurements conducted under more complex sampling conditions (i.e., within waters presenting moderate stratification at most). A previously reported correction scheme, based on the simplified MC simulations, and developed for subsurface shadow-removal processing of in-water optical data taken close to the investigated oceanographic tower, is then validated adequately under most experimental conditions. It appears feasible to generalize the present tower-specific approach to solve other optical sensor shadowing problems pertaining to differently shaped deployment platforms, and also including surrounding structures and instrument casings.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for computer model emulation and calibration

The Department of Energy relies on complex physics simulations for prediction in domains like cosmology, nuclear theory, and materials science. These simulations are often extremely computationally intensive, with some requiring days or weeks for a single simulation. In order to assure their accuracy, these models are calibrated against observational data in order to estimate inputs and systematic biases. Because of their great computational complexity, this process typically requires the construction of an emulator, a fast approximation to the simulation. In this paper, two emulator approaches are compared: Gaussian process regression and neural networks. Their emulation accuracy and calibration performance on three real problems of Department of Energy interest is considered. On these problems, the Gaussian process emulator tends to be more accurate with narrower, but still well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The neural network emulator is accurate, but tends to have large uncertainty on its predictions. Finally, as a result, calibration with the Gaussian process emulator produces more constrained posteriors that still perform well in prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Guiding Optimal Biofuels: A Comparative Analysis of the Biochemical Production of Ethanol and Fatty Acid Ethyl Esters from Switchgrass

In the current study, processes to produce either ethanol or a representative fatty acid ethyl ester (FAEE) via the fermentation of sugars liberated from lignocellulosic materials pretreated in acid or alkaline environments are analyzed in terms of economic and environmental metrics. Simplified process models are introduced and employed to estimate process performance, and Monte Carlo analyses were carried out to identify key sources of uncertainty and variability. We find that the near-term performance of processes to produce FAEE is significantly worse than that of ethanol production processes for all metrics considered, primarily due to poor fermentation yields and higher electricity demands for aerobic fermentation. In the longer term, the reduced cost and energy requirements of FAEE separation processes will be at least partially offset by inherent limitations in the relevant metabolic pathways that constrain the maximum yield potential of FAEE from biomass-derived sugars.

Paap, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3 - Flight Dynamics for A Solar Sail Technology Demonstration Mission

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m 2 solar sail in a 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand no earlier than July 2023. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar Sail↗