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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Comparison of Fault Detection Algorithms for Real-time Diagnosis in Large-Scale System

In this paper, we present a review of different real-time capable algorithms to detect and isolate component failures in large-scale systems in the presence of inaccurate test results. A sequence of imperfect test results (as a row vector of I's and O's) are available to the algorithms. In this case, the problem is to recover the uncorrupted test result vector and match it to one of the rows in the test dictionary, which in turn will isolate the faults. In order to recover the uncorrupted test result vector, one needs the accuracy of each test. That is, its detection and false alarm probabilities are required. In this problem, their true values are not known and, therefore, have to be estimated online. Other major aspects in this problem are the large-scale nature and the real-time capability requirement. Test dictionaries of sizes up to 1000 x 1000 are to be handled. That is, results from 1000 tests measuring the state of 1000 components are available. However, at any time, only 10-20% of the test results are available. Then, the objective becomes the real-time fault diagnosis using incomplete and inaccurate test results with online estimation of test accuracies. It should also be noted that the test accuracies can vary with time --- one needs a mechanism to update them after processing each test result vector. Using Qualtech's TEAMS-RT (system simulation and real-time diagnosis tool), we test the performances of 1) TEAMSAT's built-in diagnosis algorithm, 2) Hamming distance based diagnosis, 3) Maximum Likelihood based diagnosis, and 4) HidderMarkov Model based diagnosis.

Kirubarajan, Thiagalingam↗

Analysis of Space Station Centrifuge Rotor Bearing Systems: A Case Study

A team of NASA bearing and lubrication experts was assembled to assess the risk for the rolling-element bearings used in the International Space Station (ISS) centrifuge rotor (CR) to seize or otherwise fail to survive for the required 10-year life. The CR was designed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and their subcontractor, NEC Toshiba Space Systems, Ltd. (NTSpace). The NASA team performed a design audit for the most critical rolling-element bearing systems and reviewed the lubricant selected. There is uncertainty regarding the ability of the Braycote 601 grease (Castrol Limited) to reliably provide the 10-year continuous life required without relubrication of the system. The fatigue life of the Rotor Shaft Assembly (RSA) spring loaded face-to-face mount at a 99-percent probability of survival (L1 life) for the ball bearing set was estimated at 700 million hours and the single ball bearing (Row 3) at 58 million hours. These lives satisfy the mission requirements for fatigue. Rolling-element seizure tests on the RSA and fluid slip joint bearings were found unlikely to stop the centrifuge, which can cause damage to the ISS structure. The spin motor encoder duplex angular-contact ball bearings have a hard preload and a large number of small balls have the highest risk of failure. These bearings were not tested for seizure even though they are less tolerant to debris or internal clearance reductions.

Poplawski, Joseph V.↗

Three-Dimensional Geometric Nonlinear Contact Stress Analysis of Riveted Joints

The problems associated with fatigue were brought into the forefront of research by the explosive decompression and structural failure of the Aloha Airlines Flight 243 in 1988. The structural failure of this airplane has been attributed to debonding and multiple cracking along the longitudinal lap splice riveted joint in the fuselage. This crash created what may be termed as a minor "Structural Integrity Revolution" in the commercial transport industry. Major steps have been taken by the manufacturers, operators and authorities to improve the structural airworthiness of the aging fleet of airplanes. Notwithstanding, this considerable effort there are still outstanding issues and concerns related to the formulation of Widespread Fatigue Damage which is believed to have been a contributing factor in the probable cause of the Aloha accident. The lesson from this accident was that Multiple-Site Damage (MSD) in "aging" aircraft can lead to extensive aircraft damage. A strong candidate in which MSD is highly probable to occur is the riveted lap joint.

Shivakumar, Kunigal N.↗

The Safety Course Design and Operations of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV)

Following a Commercial Launch Vehicle On-Pad COPV (Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels) failure, a request was received by the NESC (NASA Engineering and Safety Center) June 14, 2014. An assessment was approved July 10, 2014, to develop and assess the capability of scanning eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for mapping thickness and inspection for flaws. Current methods could not identify thickness reduction from necking and critical flaw detection was not possible with conventional dye penetrant (PT) methods, so sensitive EC scanning techniques were needed. Developmental methods existed, but had not been fully developed, nor had the requisite capability assessment (i.e., a POD (Probability of Detection) study) been performed.

Saulsberry, Regor↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Ceramic Matrix Composite Strength

Uncertainties associated with the primitive random variables such as manufacturing process (processing temperature, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio), constituent properties (fiber, matrix and interface), and geometric parameters (ply thickness, interphase thickness) have been simulated to quantify the scatter in the first matrix cracking strength (FMCS) and the ultimate tensile strength of SCS-6/RBSN (SiC fiber (SCS-6) reinforced reaction-bonded silicon nitride composite) ceramic matrix composite laminate at room temperature. Cumulative probability distribution function for the FMCS and ultimate tensile strength at room temperature (RT) of (0)(sub 8), (0(sub 2)/90(sub 2), and (+/-45(sub 2))(sub S) laminates have been simulated and the sensitivity of primitive variables to the respective strengths have been quantified. Computationally predicted scatter of the strengths for a uniaxial laminate have been compared with those from limited experimental data. Also the experimental procedure used in the tests has been described briefly. Results show a very good agreement between the computational simulation and the experimental data. Dominating failure modes in (0)(sub 8), (0/90)(sub s) and (+/-45)(sub S) laminates have been identified. Results indicate that the first matrix cracking strength for the (0)(sub S), and (0/90)(sub S) laminates is sensitive to the thermal properties, modulus and strengths of both the fiber and matrix whereas the ultimate tensile strength is sensitive to the fiber strength and the fiber volume ratio. In the case of a (+/-45)(sub S), laminate, both the FMCS and the ultimate tensile strengths have a small scatter range and are sensitive to the fiber tensile strength as well as the fiber volume ratio.

Shan, Ashwin R.↗

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Graber, Robert R.↗

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

An interlaminar tension strength specimen

This paper describes a technique to determine interlaminar tension strength, sigma(sub 3c) of a fiber reinforced composite material using a curved beam. The specimen was a unidirectional curved beam, bent 90 degrees, with straight arms. Attached to each arm was a hinged loading mechanism which was held by the grips of a tensile testing machine. Geometry effects of the specimen, including the effects of loading arm length, inner radius, thickness, and width, were studied. The data sets fell into two categories: low strength corresponding to a macroscopic flaw related failure and high strength corresponding to a microscopic flaw related failure. From the data available, the loading arm length had no effect on sigma(sub 3c). The inner radius was not expected to have a significant effect on sigma(sub 3c), but this conclusion could not be confirmed because of differences in laminate quality for each curve geometry. The thicker specimens had the lowest value of sigma(sub 3c) because of poor laminate quality. Width was found to affect the value of sigma(sub 3c) only slightly. The wider specimens generally had a slightly lower strength since more material was under high stress, and hence, had a larger probability of containing a significant flaw.

Jackson, Wade C.↗

Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

Robinson, Ernest Y.↗

Guidance and Control Concepts for the X-33 Technology Demonstrator

The X-33 technology demonstrator is a suborbital precursor to the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) with first flight planned for summer of 1999. The flight test program will include about 15 flights originating from Edwards Air Force Base, California, each with widely varying flight profiles in order to test new thermal protection system (TPS) materials, structures, and linear aerospike engines. The first flights will be relatively short range flights with about a 300 nmi range, maximum Mach number of 7, maximum altitude of 190,000 feet, whereas the latter flights will cover about 800 nmi range, with max altitude of about 260,000 feet and max Mach of about 15. The guidance algorithms must be flexible enough to accommodate these various profiles and to adapt to severe off-nominal dispersions, such as early engine failure (partial or total) where possibly more than half the thrust is lost. An onboard real-time performance monitor will be used to assess the viability of the nominal landing site as well as alternate landing sites that would potentially be used in extreme off-nominal conditions. During ascent, a single entry guidance-related parameter, which is easy to calculate, is used to assess the viability of the nominal landing site as well as alternate landing sites. Real-time adjustment of the stored ascent attitude profile will be performed, as required, to maximize the probability of making it to the nominal landing site. Numerical results are given for various engine-out cases to illustrate the adaptability of the performance monitor.

Dukeman, Gregory A.↗

Support to X-33/Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program

The Primary activities of Lee & Associates for the referenced Purchase Order has been in direct support of the X-33/Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program. An independent review to evaluate the X-33 liquid hydrogen fuel tank failure, which recently occurred after-test of the starboard tank has been provided. The purpose of the Investigation team was to assess the tank design modifications, provide an assessment of the testing approach used by MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) in determining the flight worthiness of the tank, assessing the structural integrity, and determining the cause of the failure of the tank. The approach taken to satisfy the objectives has been for Lee & Associates to provide the expertise of Mr. Frank Key and Mr. Wayne Burton who have relevant experience from past programs and a strong background of experience in the fields critical to the success of the program. Mr. Key and Mr. Burton participated in the NASA established Failure Investigation Review Team to review the development and process data and to identify any design, testing or manufacturing weaknesses and potential problem areas. This approach worked well in satisfying the objectives and providing the Review Team with valuable information including the development of a Fault Tree. The detailed inputs were made orally in real time in the Review Team daily meetings. The results of the investigation were presented to the MSFC Center Director by the team on February 15, 2000. Attached are four charts taken from that presentation which includes 1) An executive summary, 2) The most probable cause, 3) Technology assessment, and 4) Technology Recommendations for Cryogenic tanks.

Source record↗

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

The Large Impact Process Inferred from the Geology of Lunar Multiring Basins

The study of the geology of multiring impact basins on the Moon over the past ten years has given us a rudimentary understanding of how these large structures have formed and evolved on the Moon and other bodies. Two-ring basins on the Moon begin to form at diameters of about 300 km; the transition diameter at which more than two rings appear is uncertain, but it appears to be between 400 and 500 km in diameter. Inner rings tend to be made up of clusters or aligned segments of massifs and are arranged into a crudely concentric pattern; scarp-like elements may or may not be present. Outer rings are much more scarp-like and massifs are rare to absent. Basins display textured deposits, interpreted as ejecta, extending roughly an apparent basin radius exterior to the main topographic rim. Ejecta may have various morphologies, ranging from wormy and hummocky deposits to knobby surfaces; the causes of these variations are not known, but may be related to the energy regime in which the ejecta are deposited. Outside the limits of the textured ejecta are found both fields of satellitic craters (secondaries) and light plains deposits. Impact melt sheets are observed on the floors of relatively unflooded basins. Samples of impact melts from lunar basins have basaltic major-element chemistry, characterized by K, rare-earth elements (REE), P, and other trace elements of varying concentration (KREEP); ages are between 3.8 and 3.9 Ga. These lithologies cannot be produced through the fusion of known pristine (plutonic) rock types, suggesting the occurrence of unknown lithologies within the Moon. These melts were probably generated at middle to lower crustal levels. Ejecta compositions, preservation of pre-basin topography, and deposit morphologies all indicate that the excavation cavity of multiring basins is between about 0.4 and 0.6 times the diameter of the apparent crater diameter. Basin depths of excavation can be inferred from the composition of basin ejecta. A variety of mechanisms has been proposed to account for the formation of basin rings but none of them are entirely plausible. Mechanisms can be divided into two broad groups: (1) forcible uplift due to fluidization of the target; (2) concentric, brittle, fracturing and failure of the target, on regional (megaterraces) to global scales (lithospheric fracturing). Most basin rings are spaced at a constant factor on all planets. Evidence supports divergent ringforming models, so it may be that the ring-locating mechanism differs from the ring-forming mechanism. Thus, large-scale crustal foundering (megaterracing) could occur along concentric zones of weakness created by some type of resonant wave mechanism (fluidization and uplift); such immediate crustal adjustment could then be followed by long-term adjustment of the fractured lithosphere.

Spudis, Paul D.↗

Prediction of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction using transesophageal echocardiography

Identification of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction (MPVD) has important therapeutic implications. We sought to develop an algorithm, combining clinical and echocardiographic parameters, for prediction of thrombus-related MPVD in a series of 53 patients (24 men, age 52 +/- 16 years) who had intraoperative diagnosis of thrombus or pannus from 1992 to 1997. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were analyzed to identify predictors of thrombus and pannus. Prevalence of thrombus and diagnostic yields relative to the number of predictors were determined. There were 22 patients with thrombus, 19 patients with pannus, and 12 patients with both. Forty-two of 53 masses were visualized using transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), including 29 of 34 thrombi or both thrombi and panni and 13 of 19 isolated panni. Predictors of thrombus or mixed presentation include mobile mass (p = 0.009), attachment to occluder (p = 0.02), elevated gradients (p = 0.04), and an international normalized ratio of < or = 2.5 (p = 0.03). All 34 patients with thrombus or mixed presentation had > or = 1 predictor. The prevalence of thrombus in the presence of < or = 1, 2, and > or = 3 predictors is 14%, 69%, and 91%, respectively. Thus, TEE is sensitive in the identification of abnormal mass in the setting of MPVD. An algorithm based on clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic predictors may be useful to estimate the likelihood of thrombus in the setting of MPVD. In the presence of > or = 3 predictors, the probability of thrombus is high.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Robust Design Optimization via Failure Domain Bounding

This paper extends and applies the strategies recently developed by the authors for handling constraints under uncertainty to robust design optimization. For the scope of this paper, robust optimization is a methodology aimed at problems for which some parameters are uncertain and are only known to belong to some uncertainty set. This set can be described by either a deterministic or a probabilistic model. In the methodology developed herein, optimization-based strategies are used to bound the constraint violation region using hyper-spheres and hyper-rectangles. By comparing the resulting bounding sets with any given uncertainty model, it can be determined whether the constraints are satisfied for all members of the uncertainty model (i.e., constraints are feasible) or not (i.e., constraints are infeasible). If constraints are infeasible and a probabilistic uncertainty model is available, upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation can be efficiently calculated. The tools developed enable approximating not only the set of designs that make the constraints feasible but also, when required, the set of designs for which the probability of constraint violation is below a prescribed admissible value. When constraint feasibility is possible, several design criteria can be used to shape the uncertainty model of performance metrics of interest. Worst-case, least-second-moment, and reliability-based design criteria are considered herein. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, these strategies are easily applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Basic failure mechanisms in advanced composites

The fundamental failure mechanisms which result from the interaction of thermal cycling and mechanical loading of carbon-epoxy composites were studied. This work was confined to epoxy resin uniderictionally reinforced with HTS carbon fibers, and consists of first identifying local fiber, matrix and interface failure mechanisms using the model composite specimen containing a small number of fibers so that optical techniques can be used for characterization. After the local fracture process has been established for both mechanical loading and thermal cycling, engineering composite properties and gross fracture modes are then examined to determine how the local events contribute to real composite performance. Flexural strength in high fiber content specimens shows an increase in strength with increased thermal cycling. Similar behavior is noted for 25 v/o material up to 200 cycles; however, there is a drastic reduction after 200 cycles indicating a major loss of integrity probably through the accumulation of local cleavage cracks in the tensile region.

Mazzio, V. F.↗

Investigation of non-linear contact for a clearance-fit bolt in a graphite/epoxy laminate

Numerous analytical studies have been published for the nonlinear load-contact variations in clearance-fit bolted joints. In these studies, stress distributions have been obtained and failure predictions have been made. However, very little experimental work has been reported regarding the contact or the stresses. This paper describes a fiber-optic technique for measuring the angle of contact in a clearance-fit bolt-loaded hole. Measurements of the contact angle have been made in a quasi-isotropic graphite-epoxy laminate by the optical as well as an electrical technique, and the results have been compared with those obtained from a finite-element analysis. The results from the two experimental techniques show excellent agreement; the finite-element results show some discrepancy, probably due to the interfacial frictions.

Prabhakaran, R.↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations (BLEs) used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the coefficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for spacecraft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar surface assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗