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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Towards controlled synthesis of 2D crystals by chemical vapor deposition (CVD)

We report the emergence of two-dimensional (2D) materials has captured the imagination of researchers since graphene was first exfoliated from graphite in 2004. Their exotic properties give rise to many exciting potential applications in advanced electronic, optoelectronic, energy and biomedical technologies. Scalable growth of high quality 2D materials is crucial for their adoption in technological applications the same way the arrival of high quality silicon single crystals was to the semiconductor industry. A huge amount of effort has been devoted to grow large-area, highly crystalline 2D crystals such as graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) through various methods. While CVD growth of wafer-scale monolayer graphene and TMDs has been demonstrated, considerable challenges still remain. In this perspective, we advocate for the focus on the crystal growth morphology as an underpinning for understanding, diagnosing and controlling the CVD process and environment for 2D material growth. Like snowflakes in nature, 2D crystals exhibit a rich variety of morphologies under different growth conditions. The mapping of crystal shapes in the growth parameter space “encodes” a wealth of information, the deciphering of which will lead to better understanding of the fundamental growth mechanism and materials properties. To this end, we envision a collective effort by the 2D materials community to establish the correlation between crystal shapes and the intrinsic thermodynamic and kinetic parameters for CVD reactions through integrated crystal growth experiment, database development and machine learning assisted predictive modeling, which will pave a robust path towards controlled synthesis of 2D materials and heterostructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ionization wave propagation in a He plasma jet in a controlled gas environment

Characterizing ionization wave propagation in low temperature plasma jets is critical to predicting production of reactive species and plasma–surface interactions for biomedical applications and surface functionalization. In this work, results from optical emission and laser induced fluorescence measurements of the ionization wave in a He plasma jet operating in a controlled gas environment are discussed and used for comparison with numerical modeling. Additionally, the ionization wave was observed using ICCD (Intensified Charge Coupled Device) imaging and characterized by time and spatially resolved electron density measurements using laser-collision-induced fluorescence. The plasma jet was initially characterized using pure He (nominally at 200 Torr), while varying pressure and voltage. When operating in pure He, the ionization wave broadly expands exiting the plasma tube. Increasing the operating pressure reduces the speed and isotropic expansion of the ionization wave. Furthermore, the jet operated with a humid He shroud was also studied. The humid He shroud results in the electron density increasing and having an annular profile due to the lower ionization potential of H2O compared to He and localized photoionization in the mixing region. Numerical modeling highlighted the importance of resonance radiation emitted by excited states of He, photoelectron emission from the quartz tube, and the kinetic behavior of the electrons produced by photoionization ahead of the ionization front.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIII-D research advancing the physics basis for optimizing the tokamak approach to fusion energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for the operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-I p steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. For the non-nuclear phase of ITER, two actuators are identified to lower the L–H threshold power in hydrogen plasmas. With this physics understanding and suite of capabilities, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q = 10 in ITER at ~8 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-I p beam injection was coupled to a radiative divertor. The hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for anomalous current diffusion, using off-axis current drive actuators. Also, a controller to assess proximity to stability limits and regulate β N in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally, innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Concurrent measurement of strain and chemical reaction rates in a calcite grain pack undergoing pressure solution: Evidence for surface-reaction controlled dissolution

Pressure solution is inferred to be a significant contributor to sediment compaction and lithification, especially in carbonate sediments. For a sediment deforming primarily by pressure solution, the compaction rate should be directly related to the rate of calcite dissolution, transport along grain contacts, and calcite reprecipitation. Previous experimental work has shown that there is evidence that deformation in wet calcite grain packs is consistent with control by pressure solution, but considerable ambiguity remains regarding the rate limiting mechanism. We present the results of laboratory compaction experiments designed to directly measure calcite dissolution and precipitation rates (recrystallization rates) concurrently with strain rate to test whether measured rates are consistent with predicted rates both in absolute magnitude and time evolution. Recrystallization rates are measured using trace element chemistry (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) and isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of fluids flowing slowly through a compacting grain pack as it is being triaxially compressed. Imaging techniques are used to characterize the grain contacts and strain effects in the post-experiment grain pack. Our data show that calcite recrystallization rates calculated from all three geochemical parameters are in approximate agreement and that the rates closely track strain rate. The geochemically inferred rates are close to predicted rates in absolute magnitude. Uncertainty in grain contact dimensions makes distinguishing between surface reaction control and diffusion control difficult. Measured reaction rates decrease faster than predicted from standard pressure solution creep flow laws. This inconsistency may indicate that calcite dissolution rates at grain contacts are more complex, and more time-dependent, than suggested by geometric models designed to predict grain contact stresses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scattering neutrinos, spin models, and permutations

We consider a class of Heisenberg all-to-all coupled spin models inspired by neutrino interactions in a supernova with N degrees of freedom. These models are characterized by a coupling matrix that is relatively simple in the sense that there are only a few, relative to N , nontrivial eigenvalues, in distinction to the classic Heisenberg spin-glass models, leading to distinct behavior in both the high-temperature and low-temperature regimes. When the momenta of the neutrinos are uniform and random in directions, we can calculate the large- N partition function for the quantum Heisenberg model. In particular, the high-temperature partition function predicts a non-Gaussian density of states, providing interesting counterexamples showing the limits of general theorems on the density of states for quantum spin models. We can repeat the same argument for classical Heisenberg models, also known as rotor models, and we find the high-temperature expansion is completely controlled by the eigenvalues of the coupling matrix, and again predicts non-Gaussian behavior for the density of states as long as the number of eigenvalues does not scale linearly with N . Indeed, we derive the amusing fact that these partition functions are essentially the generating function for counting permutations in the high-temperature regime. Finally, for the case relevant to neutrinos in a supernova, we identify the low-temperature phase as a unique state with the direction of the momenta of the neutrino dictating its coherent state in flavor-space, a state we dub the “flavor-momentum-locked” state. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-based discovery of molecular descriptors that control polymer gas permeation

While machine learning has found increasing use in predicting the properties of polymeric materials with only a knowledge of chain architecture, determining the molecular factors underpinning properties (“interpretable AI”) has remained less well explored. We show that encoding chain chemistry in commonly employed formats, e.g., binary-valued fingerprints, leads to uniqueness issues during the hashing process to save storage space. This is because the hashing algorithm can map several chemical moieties into the same bit. These issues carry over into the ML algorithms, especially for “inverse” design and interpretable AI, and cannot be avoided by changing the length of the fingerprint. Using MACCS key featurizations of monomer repeats resolves some of these issues, and we show that a few substructures consistently appear in top features for maximizing permeability across several gases and ML models. These are carbon–carbon double bonds (as in polyacetylenes) especially when they are associated with methyl groups (found in branching architectures). Here these results, derived from the limited data set of ~ 500 polymers with experimental gas permeation data, are in agreement with physical insight and thus provide a robust foundation which could further enable study of these material classes through detailed experiments and simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control and Calibration of GlueX Central Drift Chamber Using Gaussian Process Regression

The Gluonic Excitations (GlueX) experiment is designed to search for exotic hybrid mesons using photoproduction, and to study the hybrid meson spectrum predicted from Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics. For the first time, the GlueX Central Drift Chamber was controlled autonomously using machine learning (ML) to calibrate in real time while recording cosmic ray tracks. We demonstrate the ability of a Gaussian Process to predict the gain correction calibration factor used to determine a high voltage setting that will stabilize the CDC gain in response to changing environmental conditions; this is in contrast to the traditional, computationally expensive method of calibrating raw data after data collection is complete.

McSpadden, Helen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic scheduling for commercial building cooling systems: considering uncertainty in zone temperature prediction

Here, this paper presents the first attempt to address the uncertainty in zone temperature prediction with stochastic optimization. The uncertain zone temperature is a process uncertainty and has not been considered in the existing stochastic optimization for building control. To fill this gap, we proposed a novel formulation of stochastic optimization to handle process uncertainty in building control. Specifically, we first examined the accuracy of a typical linear model for predicting zone temperature. We then formulated the scheduling of the building cooling system as a stochastic optimization problem over a 24-hour look-ahead period to minimize the electricity cost of the studied building cooling system. After that, we applied the proposed stochastic load scheduling (SLS) to a direct expansion (DX) cooling system that serves a medium office building. Through simulation with a detailed building energy simulation software, EnergyPlus, we evaluated the operational cost and the thermal comfort compared with a deterministic load scheduling. The operation cost of scheduling was found to vary with the level of zone temperature prediction uncertainty. The proposed SLS can mitigate the impacts of uncertain zone temperature predictions on both operational cost and thermal comfort. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed SLS works better when the uncertainty level is more significant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precision redshift-space galaxy power spectra using Zel'dovich control variates

Numerical simulations in cosmology require trade-offs between volume, resolution and run-time that limit the volume of the Universe that can be simulated, leading to sample variance in predictions of ensemble-average quantities such as the power spectrum or correlation function(s). Sample variance is particularly acute at large scales, which is also where analytic techniques can be highly reliable. This provides an opportunity to combine analytic and numerical techniques in a principled way to improve the dynamic range and reliability of predictions for clustering statistics. In this paper we extend the technique of Zel'dovich control variates, previously demonstrated for 2-point functions in real space, to reduce the sample variance in measurements of 2-point statistics of biased tracers in redshift space. We demonstrate that with this technique, we can reduce the sample variance of these statistics down to their shot-noise limit out to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This allows a better matching with perturbative models and improved predictions for the clustering of e.g. quasars, galaxies and neutral Hydrogen measured in spectroscopic redshift surveys at very modest computational expense. We discuss the implementation of ZCV, give some examples and provide forecasts for the efficacy of the method under various conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of heart rate obtained from shorter duration Holter recordings to 24-hour mean heart rate in dogs with atrial fibrillation

The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of short duration electrocardiographic (ECG) recordings extracted from ambulatory continuous ECG (Holter) to assess 24-hour mean heart rate in dogs with atrial fibrillation. In this retrospective study, Holter recordings obtained from 20 dogs with atrial fibrillation were selected for analysis. Ten out of 20 dogs were receiving drugs to control heart rate at the time of Holter evaluation. From the Holter recordings, heart rate averages were calculated for various sample durations (fiveminutes, 30 minutes, one-hour, two-hours, and three-hours) for each dog. Percentage of these shorter duration ECG obtained HR averages that fell within ±10%, ±15% and ± 20% of 24-hour mean heart rate was determined for each sample duration and for each dog. Seventy five percent of heart rate averages obtained from three-hour ECG recordings fell within ±10% of 24-hour mean HR. All the heart rate averages obtained from two-hour ECG recordings fell within ±20% of 24-hour mean heart rate. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that the duration of the ECG recording affects the prediction accuracy for 24-hour Holter mean HR. Only two and three hours of Holter recordings provided all heart rate averages within ±20% of 24-hour mean heart rate. No significant differences were noted in the prediction accuracy of shorter duration ECG recordings based on rate control therapy status. Further prospective studies are needed to assess the accuracy of HR obtained at home using various ECG recording devices to predict 24-hour mean heart rate in dogs with atrial fibrillation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Automated pH Control within Batch Processes Relying on Raman pH Measurement

Nuclear fission is an energy source that can provide consistent power with very low associated carbon emissions. However, management of the used nuclear fuel is an important aspect of the application of nuclear power. Recycling of useful components from used fuel is an attractive option, but this involves chemical processing of the fuel. Possible chemical separation technologies that might be used in this regard are sensitive to solution pH. Raman spectroscopy is a promising technique for monitoring the pH of solutions in real time. Classical pH probes are too fragile to be used in the harsh environments encountered in nuclear fuel processing. Raman probes are robust and can withstand these harsh environments to track pH. Coupled with chemometric analysis, the demonstration of the use of Raman spectroscopy to track and predict the pH in carboxylate-buffered systems is made possible. Utilizing this spectroscopy in conjunction with Programmable Logic Controllers mimics industrial control systems used in many modern industrial settings. This showcases a pragmatic approach toward leveraging Raman spectroscopy and chemometric model outputs as inputs for a real-time control system. The model to predict pH created by chemometrics proved to be successful in tracking pH. The optimal pH for TALSPEAK extraction of lanthanides and actinides from aqueous solution is known to proceed in a narrow pH range of around pH = 2.8 ± 0.1. This study uses Raman optical monitoring and automated control to return and maintain solution pH within this range after acid or base perturbations move the solution pH well outside this region. Root-mean-square errors show that pH changes measured using Raman spectroscopy on the batch process solution are reliably measured and used to automatically correct and maintain solution pH. Measurement of solution pH tracks favorably with electrochemical pH probe comparison measurements. As a result, the ability to showcase Raman spectroscopy paired with chemometrics analysis acts as a durable, better alternative data source compared to traditional pH probes to optimize the separation efficiency in the used nuclear fuel processing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Selenite and Selenate Sequestration during Coprecipitation with Barite: Insights from Mineralization Processes of Adsorption, Nucleation, and Growth

Coprecipitation of selenium oxyanions with barite is a facile way to sequester Se in the environments. However, the chemical composition of Se-barite coprecipitates usually deviates from that predicted from thermodynamic calculations. This discrepancy was resolved by considering variations in nucleation and growth rates controlled by ion–mineral interactions, solubility, and interfacial energy. For homogeneous precipitation, ~10% of sulfate, higher than thermodynamic predictions (<0.3%), was substituted by Se(IV) or Se(VI) oxyanion, which was attributed to adsorption-induced entrapment during crystal growth. For heterogeneous precipitation, thiol- and carboxylic-based organic films, utilized as model interfaces to mimic the natural organic-abundant environments, further enhanced the sequestration of Se(VI) oxyanions (up to 41–92%) with barite. Such enhancement was kinetically driven by increased nucleation rates of selenate-rich barite having a lower interfacial energy than pure barite. In contrast, only small amounts of Se(IV) oxyanions (~1%) were detected in heterogeneous coprecipitates mainly due to a lower saturation index of BaSeO 3 and deprotonation degree of Se(IV) oxyanion at pH 5.6. Finally, these roles of nanoscale mineralization mechanisms observed during composition selection of Se-barite could mark important steps toward the remediation of contaminants through coprecipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Preconstruction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land-Based Wind Plants

Recent studies suggest that biases between wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimates and actual energy production are decreasing over time. However, variability in energy yield prediction accuracy across different projects and wind energy consultants remains high. Wake effects are one of the largest categories comprising the pre-construction energy yield assessment process. To assess the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare pre-construction wake loss estimates provided by 8 consultants to the estimated operational wake losses for 10 North American wind plants, as part of the Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) Benchmark project. We estimate operational wake losses using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data by comparing total wind plant energy production to the potential energy production based on the power produced by freestream wind turbines. In the presentation, we will discuss the overall wake loss prediction bias as well as the project-to-project variability in the prediction accuracy. Further, we will highlight challenges encountered when estimating operational wake losses, including the impact of complex terrain and the presence of neighboring wind plants.

benchmark↗