Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Improving the Freight Productivity of a Heavy-Duty, Battery Electric Truck by Intelligent Energy Management

This project aimed to enhance the range and reduce the operating costs of battery electric Class 8 trucks traveling over 250 miles daily. This was achieved through the development and implementation of an intelligent-Energy Management System (i-EMS) that leverages vehicle and operations data, physics-aware machine learning algorithms, and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) connectivity. The project hypothesized that advanced machine learning algorithms and real-time data analytics could significantly improve the energy efficiency and range of these trucks. Key objectives included developing a physics-aware machine learning algorithm, implementing an i-EMS with V2C connectivity and physics-aware spatial data analytics (PSDA), and validating the system’s effectiveness with fleet partners HEB Companies and Murphy Logistics. Extensive data collection from vehicle operations, including vehicle characteristics, road conditions, and payload, was conducted. A machine learning algorithm was developed to predict energy consumption and enable proactive decision-making. The i-EMS was implemented on two Volvo VNR BEVs, with operators receiving charging and routing recommendations. Charging stations were installed at depot locations in Texas and Minnesota, with an additional on-route charger in Minnesota. Significant findings included a 14% range improvement for Murphy Logistics on a highway-driving eco-route and a 22% range improvement for HEB Companies on a city-driving eco-route. The i-EMS utilized rule-based methods and physics-based algorithms to predict and reduce energy consumption, with real-time monitoring and analysis through V2C connectivity enabling proactive decision-making. The project demonstrated the feasibility and economic viability of battery electric Class 8 trucks for long-haul operations, showcasing the potential of physics-aware machine learning in optimizing energy management. The successful implementation of the i-EMS in real-world scenarios validates its practical application and effectiveness, paving the way for the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles in the freight transportation industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Product Consistency Test Results for the LXC-Series Glasses

This report provides chemical analysis of a series of Product Consistency Test (PCT) leachates from simulated nuclear waste glasses. The resulting data will be used in the development of improved property/composition models. For some of the glass leachates, minor scatter among the triplicate values of some analytes was observed. For other leachates, there were more significant differences among the triplicate values. A review of the PCT data noted that there was little difference between the normalized values on the basis of targeted or measured glass composition. Several of the canister centerline cooled study glasses have NC i values that are greater than the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant immobilized low-activity waste constraint of 4 g/L for B and Na. The results of these glasses will help ensure the ability of advanced glass performance models to appropriately predict acceptable compositions. For many of the study glasses, heat treatment had only a marginal impact on the NC i values. The samples of the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass included with each PCT set had generally consistent NC i values. The release rates for boron and sodium, and for sodium and silicon were highly correlated for the study glasses, while for the other analytes, less correlation was observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

COMPOFF: A Compiler Cost model using Machine Learning to predict the Cost of OpenMP Offloading

The HPC industry is inexorably moving towards an era of extremely heterogeneous architectures, with more devices configured on any given HPC platform and potentially more kinds of devices, some of them highly specialized. Writing a separate code suitable for each target system for a given HPC application is not practical. The better solution is to use directive-based parallel programming models such as OpenMP. OpenMP provides a number of options for offloading a piece of code to devices like GPUs. To select the best option from such options during compilation, most modern compilers use analytical models to estimate the cost of executing the original code and the different offloading code variants. Building such an analytical model for compilers is a difficult task that necessitates a lot of effort on the part of a compiler engineer. Recently, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to build cost models for a variety of compiler optimization problems. In this paper, we present COMPOFF, a cost model which uses the multi-layer perceptrons to statically estimates the Cost of OpenMP OFFloading. We used six different transformations on a parallel code of Wilson Dslash Operator to support GPU offloading, and we predicted their cost of execution on different GPUs using COMPOFF during compile time. Our results show that this model can predict offloading costs with a root mean squared error in prediction of less than 0.5 seconds. Our preliminary findings indicate that this work will make it much easier and faster for scientists and compiler developers to port legacy HPC applications that use OpenMP to new heterogeneous computing environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Baryonic effects in the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure and an analytic recipe for lensing in CMB-S4

Upcoming Large-Scale Structure surveys will likely become the next leading sources of cosmological information, making it crucial to have a precise understanding of the influence of baryons on cosmological observables. The Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) provides a consistent way to predict the clustering of dark matter and baryons on large scales, where their leading corrections in perturbation theory are given by a simple and calculable functional form even after the onset of baryonic processes. In this paper, we extend the two-fluid-like system up to two-loop order in perturbation theory. Along the way, we show that a new linear counterterm proportional to the relative velocity of the fluids could generically be present, but we show that its effects are expected to be small in our universe. Regardless, we show how to consistently perform perturbation theory in the presence of this new term. We find that the EFTofLSS at two-loop order can accurately account for the details of baryonic processes on large scales. Additionally, we compare our results to a hydrodynamical N-body simulation at many redshifts and find that the counterterms associated with the leading corrections to dark matter and baryons start to differ between redshifts z ≈ 3 and z ≈ 2, signaling the onset of star-formation physics. We then use these fits to compute the lensing power spectrum, show that the understanding of baryonic processes will be important for analyzing CMB-S4 data, and show that the two-loop EFTofLSS accurately captures these effects for ℓ ≲ 2000. Our results are also potentially of interest for current and future weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting the Rate of Degradation Related to Oxygen Electrode Delamination in Solid Oxide-Ion Electrolyzers

One of the leading causes for the performance degradation in H 2 -producing solid oxide electrolytic cells (SOECs) is the gradual delamination of oxygen electrode (OE) from the electrolyte under a strong anodic polarization. Identification of the key factor that controls the rate of OE delamination is of paramount importance to achieve long-term stable operation of SOECs. Here we show from thousands of hours of testing data that the exchange current density (i°) of OE can be leveraged as a predictor for the rate of delamination. To obtain i°, we apply DC-biased electrochemical impedance spectroscopy on a three-electrode symmetrical cell to measure polarization resistance (R p ) of OE as a function of current density (i) and time (t). The collected R p -i-t raw data are then converted to overpotential ( η )-i-t, from which i° is extracted from the “low-field” approximation. An analytical relationship between i° and time-to-delamination (TTD) is further established from the established i°-i-t relationship. We show that under a constant anodic polarization current density i, the greater the ratio i/i°, the faster the delamination. Therefore, we conclude that the exchange current density of an OE, i°, can be used to predict the rate of OE degradation in solid oxide-ion electrolyzers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Technical Assessment of the Application of Digital Twin and Prognostic Tools for Condition Monitoring

This report was prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to present use cases of the application of advanced technologies toward meeting the current and future regulatory requirements for maintenance and condition monitoring of structures, systems, and components (SSCs). The advanced technologies considered in this work, collectively referred to as digital twin (DT) technologies, are advanced sensors and instrumentation, data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI), and physics-based models. The report presents two use cases of reactor coolant pumps (RCPs) and heat pipes in nuclear power plants (NPPs) with technical and regulatory considerations and opportunities in using advanced technologies for conditional monitoring. Key findings from the exploration of these considerations are as follows: - Uncertainties in sensor data and model predictions must be rigorously addressed through validation and verification processes - Regulatory compliance is paramount, necessitating data driven models to be developed in line with existing codes and standards, as well as considering potential future guidelines for advanced reactors - Explainability and transparency in ML/AI models are essential for developing operator trust and regulatory review, including methods that enhance the interpretability of complex data-driven predictions - Condition monitoring programs must be evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing maintenance-preventable function failures (MPFF) and aligning with plant performance criteria - The deployment of advanced technologies for condition monitoring could lead to a transition from periodic to continuous monitoring, thereby optimizing maintenance schedules - Collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders, regulatory bodies, and technology developers are crucial for the successful adoption of advanced technologies for condition monitoring systems in nuclear facilities In summary, the introduction of advanced technologies into condition monitoring programs represents a significant leap forward in the domain of NPP maintenance. By harnessing the capabilities of advanced sensors, data analytics, and ML/AI, NPP operators can transition from a time-based to a condition-based maintenance approach. This shift can potentially enhance the reliability and safety of critical plant components while optimizing maintenance efforts and minimizing unnecessary outages. The NRC is continuing to explore the regulatory aspects of advanced technologies as part of inservice inspection and inservice testing (ISI and IST) programs by pursuing additional research in this technical area.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Controlling the Self-Assembly of DNA Origami Octahedra via Manipulation of Inter-Vertex Interactions

Recent studies have demonstrated novel strategies for the organization of nanomaterials into three-dimensional (3D) ordered arrays with prescribed lattice symmetries using DNA-based self-assembly strategies. In one approach, the nanomaterial is sequestered into DNA origami frames or “material voxels” and then coordinated into ordered arrays based on the voxel geometry and the corresponding directional interactions based on its valency. While the lattice symmetry is defined by the valency of the bonds, a larger-scale morphological development is affected by assembly processes and differences in energies of anisotropic bonds. To facilely model this assembly process, we investigate the self-assembly behavior of hard particles with six interacting vertices via theory and Monte Carlo simulations and exploration of corresponding experimental systems. We demonstrate that assemblies with different 3D crystalline morphologies, but the same lattice symmetry can be formed depending on the relative strength of vertex-to-vertex interactions in orthogonal directions. We observed three distinct assembly morphologies for such systems: cube-like, sheet-like, and cylinder-like. A simple analytical theory inspired by well-established ideas in the areas of protein crystallization, based on calculating the second virial coefficient of patchy hard spheres, captures the simulation results and thus represents a straightforward means of modeling this self-assembly process. To complement the theory and simulations, experimental studies were performed to investigate the assembly of octahedral DNA origami frames with varying binding energies at their vertices. In conclusion, x-ray scattering confirms the robustness of the formed nanoscale lattices for different binding energies, while both optical and electron microscopy imaging validated the theoretical predictions on the dependence of the distinct morphologies of assembled state on the interaction strengths in the three orthogonal directions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microscopic theory, analysis, and interpretation of conductance histograms in molecular junctions

Molecular electronics break-junction experiments are widely used to investigate fundamental physics and chemistry at the nanoscale. Reproducibility in these experiments relies on measuring conductance on thousands of freshly formed molecular junctions, yielding a broad histogram of conductance events. Experiments typically focus on the most probable conductance, while the information content of the conductance histogram has remained unclear. Here we develop a microscopic theory for the conductance histogram by merging the theory of force-spectroscopy with molecular conductance. The procedure yields analytical equations that accurately fit the conductance histogram of a wide range of molecular junctions and augments the information content that can be extracted from them. Our formulation captures contributions to the conductance dispersion due to conductance changes during the mechanical elongation inherent to the experiments. In turn, the histogram shape is determined by the non-equilibrium stochastic features of junction rupture and formation. The microscopic parameters in the theory capture the junction’s electromechanical properties and can be isolated from separate conductance and rupture force (or junction-lifetime) measurements. The predicted behavior can be used to test the range of validity of the theory, understand the conductance histograms, design molecular junction experiments with enhanced resolution and molecular devices with more reproducible conductance properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction of Reactive Nitrous Acid Formation in Rare‐Earth MOFs via ab initio Molecular Dynamics

Abstract Reactive gas formation in pores of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) is a known mechanism of framework destruction; understanding those mechanisms for future durability design is key to next generation adsorbents. Herein, an extensive set of ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations are used for the first time to predict competitive adsorption of mixed acid gases (NO 2 and H 2 O) and the in‐pore reaction mechanisms for a series of rare earth (RE)‐DOBDC MOFs. Spontaneous formation of nitrous acid (HONO) is identified as a result of deprotonation of the MOF organic linker, DOBDC. The unique DOBDC coordination to the metal clusters allows for proton transfer from the linker to the NO 2 without the presence of H 2 O and may be a factor in DOBDC MOF durability. This is a previously unreported mechanisms of HONO formation in MOFs. With the presented methodology, prediction of future gas interactions in new nanoporous materials can be achieved.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Synthesis, crystal and electronic structure of the Zintl phase Ba 16 Sb 11 . A case study uncovering greater structural complexity via monoclinic distortion of the tetragonal Ca 16 Sb 11 structure type

The binary Zintl phase Ba 16 Sb 11 has been synthesized and structurally characterized. Detailed studies via single-crystal X-ray diffraction methods indicate that although Ba 16 Sb 11 appears to crystallize in the tetragonal Ca 16 Sb 11 structure type (space group $P\bar{4}2_1$m with a=13.5647(9) Å, c=12.4124(12)Å, Z=2, R 1 = 3.14%; wR 2 = 4.77%), there exists an extensive structural disorder. Some Ba 16 Sb 11 crystals were found to be monoclinic and the structure was solved and refined in space group P2 1 (a=18.3929(12) Å, b=13.5233(8) Å, c=18.3978(12) Å, β=94.6600(10)°; Z=4, R 1 =5.84 %; wR 2 =9.58 %). The latter corresponds to a 2-fold superstructure of the tetragonal one, which provides a disorder-free structural model. In both descriptions, the disordered tetragonal and the ordered monoclinic superstructure, the basic building units that make up the structure of this Ba-rich compound are pairs of face-shared square antiprisms of Ba atoms, which are centered by Sb atoms. The dimerized antiprisms are linked into parallel chains via square prisms of Ba atoms, which are also centered by Sb atoms. The Zintl concept can be applied in a straightforward manner and as result, the structure of Ba 32 Sb 22 (=2×Ba 16 Sb 11 ) can be rationalized as (Ba 2+ ) 32 (Sb 3– ) 20 [Sb 2 ] 4– . Notably, the partitioning of the valence electrons is done taking into an account the homoatomic Sb–Sb contacts (d=3.01 Å), which can be clearly distinguished in the lower symmetry space group. Electronic structure calculations of Ba 16 Sb 11 are in good accordance with the Zintl rationalization and predict a semiconductor with a band gap of 0.77 eV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗

Vector-level feedforward control of LPBF melt pool area using a physics-based thermal model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing technique that has gained popularity thanks to its ability to produce geometrically complex, fully dense metal parts. However, these parts are prone to internal defects and geometric inaccuracies, stemming in part from variations in the melt pool. Here, this paper proposes a novel vector-level feedforward control framework for regulating melt pool area in LPBF. By decoupling part-scale thermal behavior from small-scale melt pool physics, the controller provides a scale-agnostic prediction of melt pool area and efficient optimization over it. This is done by operating on two coupled lightweight models: a finite-difference thermal model that efficiently captures vector-level temperature fields and a reduced-order, analytical melt pool model. Each model is calibrated separately with minimal single-track and 2D experiments, and the framework is validated on a complex 3D geometry in both Inconel 718 and 316L stainless steel. Results showed that feedforward vector-level laser power scheduling reduced geometric inaccuracy in key dimensions by 62%, overall porosity by 16.5%, and photodiode root-mean-squared deviation by 38.5% on average. Overall, this modular, data-efficient approach demonstrates that proactively compensating for known thermal effects can significantly improve part quality while remaining computationally efficient and readily extensible to other materials and machines.

Additive manufacturing↗

Evaluation of semi-empirical soot models for nonpremixed flames with increased stoichiometric mixture fraction and strain

Due to the size and complexity of industrial-scale systems and computing limitations, semi-empirical soot models are often employed in CFD simulations rather than computationally-expensive detailed models. Many of these models were developed for specific applications with unique characteristic timescales and/or validated only under fuel-air combustion conditions. Hence, their use in different contexts, such as oxy-combustion, could lead to inaccurate predictions. In this study, twelve semi-empirical models (1-step or 2-step) are evaluated on their ability to respond to changes in stoichiometric mixture fraction (Z st ) and strain in a series of ethylene counterflow flames which span the experimental sooting-to-non-sooting (yellow to blue) transition. A unique approach of plotting soot formation rate in normalized, local equivalence ratio space is introduced to aid in the analysis. Results show that no existing model is able to predict a blue flame when Z st is increased beyond the experimentally-measured sooting limit. Many models give the counter-intuitive result of increasing peak and/or integrated soot volume fraction (svf) as Z st increased, contrary to experimental observations. Two models are able to successfully predict a blue flame upon increase of strain to the sooting limit value. For two-step models, the strong dependence of growth rate on surface area results in high sensitivity of svf to changing flame boundary conditions, but with mixed accuracy. There is still a significant need for a robust semi-empirical model which can accurately predict soot fraction in systems with oxygen-enrichment or variable strain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurement and modeling of methane diffusion in hydrocarbon mixtures

Methane (CH 4 ) dissolution and diffusive mass transfer in liquid hydrocarbon mixtures is of key interest in the context of enhanced oil recovery from tight shales. In this paper, we have studied CH 4 dissolution and diffusion in normal alkane mixtures at a temperature of 50 ⁰C and at pressures of ~8 MPa. For the measurement of CH 4 dissolution/diffusion in bulk liquid hydrocarbon mixtures, we have utilized a high pressure and temperature, constant-volume diffusion (CV-D) setup. Here, we have studied CH 4 diffusion in mixtures with three long-chain normal alkanes: decane (C 10 ), dodecane (C 12 ) and hexadecane (C 16 ). We have measured CH 4 solubility and diffusion in its binary mixtures with each of these three normal alkanes, as well as in ternary and quaternary mixtures. During the experiments, the swelling of the liquid mixture due to CH 4 dissolution was measured in situ via a cathetometer and was subsequently integrated into the data analysis. A key conclusion from this study is that the solubility and transport properties of the multicomponent mixtures can be predicted accurately from binary mixture measurements using an appropriate Equation of State (EOS) and Wilke’s simplification of the classical Maxwell-Stefan (MS) diffusion theory. This observation can facilitate accurate prediction of diffusive mass transfer in more complex liquid hydrocarbon mixtures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗