SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “performance modeling and prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Modeling of Corrosion and Oxidation Performance and Their Impact on High-temperature Fatigue of Automotive Exhaust Manifold Components

The persistent need to reducing automobile emissions has led to the wide adoption of turbocharger technology and engine downsizing, which results in a substantial raise in exhaust temperature, reaching as high as 950°C. Therefore, the material selection for exhaust manifolds and turbocharger housings becomes significantly challenging. The successful development of the multiscale models on oxidation and corrosion performance, and their impact on high-temperature fatigue will enable the acceleration of new, high-performance, heat-resistant alloy solutions and the reduction of time and cost in achieving a durable design. In this project, we developed and validated multiscale models that can accurately predict the corrosion and oxidation performance and their impact on high-temperature fatigue of high-temperature automotive exhaust manifold components. The capability of accurately predicting the corrosion/oxidation-fatigue damage can signiﬁcantly reduce the time and cost of achieving a durable design. The models were used to guide the development of new high thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) performance alloys.

Li, Mei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1974

Electrochemical carbon dioxide concentrator subsystem math model

A steady state computer simulation model has been developed to describe the performance of a total six man, self-contained electrochemical carbon dioxide concentrator subsystem built for the space station prototype. The math model combines expressions describing the performance of the electrochemical depolarized carbon dioxide concentrator cells and modules previously developed with expressions describing the performance of the other major CS-6 components. The model is capable of accurately predicting CS-6 performance over EDC operating ranges and the computer simulation results agree with experimental data obtained over the prediction range.

Marshall, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Future of Air Traffic Management

A system for the control of terminal area traffic to improve productivity, referred to as the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), is being developed at NASA's Ames Research Center under a joint program with the FAA. CTAS consists of a set of integrated tools that provide computer-generated advisories for en-route and terminal area controllers. The premise behind the design of CTAS has been that successful planning of traffic requires accurate trajectory prediction. Data bases consisting of representative aircraft performance models, airline preferred operational procedures and a three dimensional wind model support the trajectory prediction. The research effort has been the design of a set of automation tools that make use of this trajectory prediction capability to assist controllers in overall management of traffic. The first tool, the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA), provides the overall flow management between the en route and terminal areas. A second tool, the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST) provides terminal area controllers with sequence and runway advisories to allow optimal use of the runways. The TMA and FAST are now being used in daily operations at Dallas/Ft. Worth airport. Additional activities include the development of several other tools. These include: 1) the En Route Descent Advisor that assist the en route controller in issuing conflict free descents and ascents; 2) the extension of FAST to include speed and heading advisories and the Expedite Departure Path (EDP) that assists the terminal controller in management of departures; and 3) the Collaborative Arrival Planner (CAP) that will assist the airlines in operational decision making. The purpose of this presentation is to review the CTAS concept and to present the results of recent field tests. The paper will first discuss the overall concept and then discuss the status of the individual tools.

Denery, Dallas G.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Prototyping Effort for the Integrated Spacecraft Analysis System

Computer modeling and simulation has recently become an essential technique for predicting and validating spacecraft performance. However, most computer models only examine spacecraft subsystems, and the independent nature of the models creates integration problems, which lowers the possibilities of simulating a spacecraft as an integrated unit despite a desire for this type of analysis. A new project called Integrated Spacecraft Analysis was proposed to serve as a framework for an integrated simulation environment. The project is still in its infancy, but a software prototype would help future developers assess design issues. The prototype explores a service oriented design paradigm that theoretically allows programs written in different languages to communicate with one another. It includes creating a uniform interface to the SPICE libraries such that different in-house tools like APGEN or SEQGEN can exchange information with it without much change. Service orientation may result in a slower system as compared to a single application, and more research needs to be done on the different available technologies, but a service oriented approach could increase long term maintainability and extensibility.

mission planning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fourier Analysis and Loss Modeling for Inductive Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging with Reduced Stray Field

With the growth of electric vehicle (EV) popularity, different charging options to increase user convenience and reduce charging times are being considered and researched. Among these, inductive wireless power transfer (WPT) systems for EVs are being designed to meet specifications such as stray field, power level, efficiency, misalignment tolerance, and ground clearance, which are all heavily influenced by the coil geometry. The proposed Fourier Analysis Method (FAM) is an analytical method to directly design coil geometries to meet stray field and power level requirements through an optimization of Fourier basis function coefficients. The outputs of the optimization are complex, planar coil geometries that meet the power level and stray field constraints with minimized loss factors. Contours of these potentials determine the coil conductor paths and loss models predict the system efficiency and performance over misalignment. The Fourier representation of the geometry is used to conveniently calculate the coupling over misalignment, external proximity effect loss, and ferrite loss. A 6.6 kW prototype WPT system with low stray field and high efficiency is built from the optimization results to validate the models and showcase the usefulness of the FAM design approach.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of grid-based vorticity-velocity large eddy simulation off-body solvers for application to overset CFD

Accurately predicting unsteady wakes and vortex-dominated flows is essential to a wide range of engineering applications, including aircraft, rotorcraft, shipboard operations, bio-inspired unsteady flight and propulsion, wind turbines, and urban flows. While current CFD software can model the complete flow field and wake system, the computational costs incurred in high Reynolds number unsteady turbulent flow simulations often remain prohibitive for routine engineering use, particularly for applications involving moving components. Prior work has demonstrated that by adopting a vorticity-velocity formulation in a grid-based off-body flow solver (VorTran-M and VorTran-M2) one can lower these costs by several orders of magnitude when compared to conventional approaches. This paper describes the extensions made to VorTran-M2 to support turbulent flows, and associated benchmarking activity to assess its performance for problems involving strong stretching and diffusion processes, whose competing contributions to the vorticity field are core drivers of turbulent flow evolution. Predictions are presented for: (i) the Kida-Pelz problem whose inviscid form is of mathematical interest due to its apparent formation of singular flow in finite time; and (ii) the Taylor Green vortex arrangement, which has been extensively studied as a fundamental simulation challenge in the turbulent modeling community. Here, the results are used to evaluate the overall predictive ability and performance of two sub-grid scale models incorporated into VorTran-M2. Results indicate that the computational cost savings seen previously for inviscid and convection dominated problems extend to turbulent flow simulations supporting the viability of VorTran-M2 as a low cost means for accurately modeling the far-field and background flow, particularly when long duration vorticity evolution is of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

pnnl/emp-gnn

Efficient Graph Neural Network for Predicting Molecular Properties software can compare the prediction quality with ab initio DFT results reported by the high-performance state-of-theart NWChem quantum chemistry package [1] through Mean Absolute Error (MAE) obtained by the fitting between DFT and model predictions i.e, MPNN [2]. We also demonstrated the performance benefits by grouping large molecules by atom sizes, and executing GNN models on different types of resources. Since the training times depend on the number of atoms, we demonstrate the impact of distributing the workloads on two GPUs with varying capabilities (e.g., NVIDIA A100 vs. GeForce RTX 2080 Ti) to optimize the efficiency. We are at the precipice of broad adoption of GNNs for molecular property prediction tasks; hence, our work is timely by comparing model prediction against classical approaches with the intent of providing initial screening for specific classes of molecules.

Lee, Hyungro↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Flight Prediction for Performance of the SWAS Solar Array Deployment Mechanism

The focus of this paper is a comparison of ground-based solar array deployment tests with the on-orbit deployment. The discussion includes a summary of the mechanisms involved and the correlation of a dynamics model with ground based test results. Some of the unique characteristics of the mechanisms are explained through the analysis of force and angle data acquired from the test deployments. The correlated dynamics model is then used to predict the performance of the system in its flight application.

Seniderman, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Flight Prediction for Performance of the SWAS Solar Array Deployment Mechanism

Sneiderman, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Flight Prediction for Performance of the SWAS Solar Array Deployment Mechanism

Sneiderman, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2019

Physics-Informed Machine Learning with Application to Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Modeling and Optimization

Traditional data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques were combined with the physics-based SOFC-MP model toward improving SOFC system-level performance prediction. Four different physics-informed ML methods were proposed to demonstrate better prediction accuracy compared with traditional ML methods. First, it was preferred that the existing Kriging-based surrogate model not be entirely abandoned, so errors between Kriging regression prediction and true solution are learned using ML. The goal was to find the pattern of the error distribution as a function of model input so discrepancies between the Kriging prediction and true solution could be reduced by adding the additional ML-trained error term to the existing prediction. Second, deep neural networks (DNN) coupled with the mass balance model (MBM) have been developed to significantly decrease the reduced order model (ROM) prediction error with fewer training data compared to the traditional Kriging-based ROM and traditional DNN regression approaches. Third, DNN regression coupled with a neural networks (NN) classifier and MBM was developed. It provides superior performance on classifying the physically operational conditions for natural gas fuel cell (NGFC) than traditional classification approaches. Finally, two kinds of DNN transferring were studied and tested. One was transferring DNN for low-fidelity model data to a high-fidelity model. The second one was transferring DNN from state-of-the-art NGFC to advanced NGFC. These physic-informed ML frameworks can serve as a solid foundation for estimating U.S. Department of Energy-targeted fuel cell performance and exhibit great potential to be employed to other engineering applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS1993

Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft: A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors

This document contains papers from a specialists' meeting entitled "Piloting Vertical Flight Aircraft. A Conference on Flying Qualities and Human Factors." The conference was co-sponsored by the American Helicopter Society--San Francisco Bay Chapter, and the NASA Ames Research Center. It was held January 20-22, 1993 at the Sheraton Hotel Fisherman's Wharf, San Francisco, California. Vertical flight aircraft, including helicopters and a variety of Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) concepts, place unique requirements on human perception, control, and performance for the conduct of their design missions. The intent of this conference was to examine, for these vehicles, advances in: (1) design of flight control systems for ADS-33C standards; (2) assessment of human factors influences of cockpit displays and operational procedures; (3) development of VTOL design and operational criteria; and (4) development of theoretical methods or models for predicting pilot-vehicle performance and mission suitability. Recognizing that human capabilities and limitations form an integral aspect of the operations for these classes of vehicles, a secondary goal of the conference was to provide an initial venue for enhanced interaction between human factors and handling qualities specialists.

Helicopter↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prognosis of Wind Turbine Gearbox Bearing Failures Using SCADA and Modeled Data

Predictive maintenance and condition monitoring systems for wind turbines have seen increased adoption to minimize downtime, reducing operation and maintenance costs. On today’s wind power plants, the integrated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system provides low- frequency operational data that can be leveraged to quantify a wind turbine’s health. The aim of this study is to utilize machine-learning techniques to predict axial cracking failures in wind turbine gearbox bearings up to 1 month ahead of time. The failures are assumed to have occurred when the investigated bearing was replaced. While current SCADA systems show the overall condition of a wind turbine, often they do not allow for the investigation of specific gearbox bearings’ health. To enrich bearing fault signatures, additional data are computed through physics-based models using gearbox design information. Based on SCADA data, modeled data, and bearing failure log data from an actual wind plant, the performances of different machine-learning models on unseen data are then evaluated using industry-standard metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score. Results show the overall system performance enhancement in predicting bearing failure when modeled data are included with SCADA data. The reduction in terms of false alarms is about 50%, and improvement in terms of precision and F1 score is about 33% and 12% respectively, based on the best modeling case in this study.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting transcriptional responses to cold stress across plant species

Although genome-sequence assemblies are available for a growing number of plant species, gene-expression responses to stimuli have been cataloged for only a subset of these species. Many genes show altered transcription patterns in response to abiotic stresses. However, orthologous genes in related species often exhibit different responses to a given stress. Accordingly, data on the regulation of gene expression in one species are not reliable predictors of orthologous gene responses in a related species. Here, we trained a supervised classification model to identify genes that transcriptionally respond to cold stress. A model trained with only features calculated directly from genome assemblies exhibited only modest decreases in performance relative to models trained by using genomic, chromatin, and evolution/diversity features. Models trained with data from one species successfully predicted which genes would respond to cold stress in other related species. Cross-species predictions remained accurate when training was performed in cold-sensitive species and predictions were performed in cold-tolerant species and vice versa. Models trained with data on gene expression in multiple species provided at least equivalent performance to models trained and tested in a single species and outperformed single-species models in cross-species prediction. These results suggest that classifiers trained on stress data from well-studied species may suffice for predicting gene-expression patterns in related, less-studied species with sequenced genomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Project Title: Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting NonPlanar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies

This is the final report for the project “Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting Non- Planar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies”, funded by DOE, and performed by Type One Energy from September, 2020, to March 2024 involving the Fusion Technology Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to design and fabricate the first non-planar HTS (REBCO) coil for a high-field stellarator based on the SPARC tokamak’s VIPER cable concept. Stellarators at high fields make high-temperature superconducting magnets necessary for a compact fusion device. But the asymmetric and non-planar nature of its components, especially the magnets make it difficult for scalable producibility. To address these challenges, two promising technologies have emerged: advanced manufacturing (AM) for the supporting plates for forming the magnets, and high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables inside the plates. AM has advanced enough to produce stellarator components with the necessary geometric complexity, size, and the precision, leading to potentially significant reductions in production time, cost, and waste. The cost of HTS tape has decreased dramatically, and progress in HTS planar magnet development has reached a point where it can be proposed for application to complex 3D non-planar magnets. The main objective of this project is to develop, demonstrate and pre-commercialize a novel, non-planar HTS coil shape that remains superconducting to achieve production scalable reductions in time and cost and performance. The proposed technology is based on the novel concept of a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil assembly. This project focuses on the design, fabrication, material optimization of cable design, and validation and demonstration of the high current carrying capability of superconducting magnets and their support in a complex 3D shape needed for application to stellarator magnetic plasma confinement. The specific objectives of this research program include: (1) The successful application of metal AM to build a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil, (2) An HTS cable and cross-section design that can conform to the required nonplanar coil shape (bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and remains superconducting at an engineering current density of 1.35 kA/cm 2 at 77 K and 1 tesla at the conductor (5 kA in the cable). To achieve the above challenging goals, we have formed a multidisciplinary research team consisting of members from Type One Energy and UW-Madison, MIT PSFC and CFS with complementary skills and strong facilities. The team worked collaboratively on fundamental and applied research on the following three major technical areas: (1) Design, fabrication, and optimization of non-planar HTS Cable The ultimate goal of the project is to determine if commercial REBCO tapes and additive manufacturing can be used to fabricate high field (≥ 10T) non-planar coils with tight bending radii (≃ 100mm) and with a degradation of the critical current (Ic) smaller than 20% with respect to the expected performance. We started with shorter length cable to evaluate the scalability of the production process and eventually reached multiple turns for higher magnetic fields. Our findings suggest that a stellarator coil system of a relevant size, characterized by its asymmetric and non-planar components, can be fabricated using a formed cable in plate method. This system can be simulated using a large-scale modeling approach. The use of hybrid modeling 3 techniques will be pivotal in reducing the complexity of the model and in assessing expected performance in designs. (2) Modeling and simulation of the non-planar HTS Cable Multiphysics simulations are performed using the commercial software and are carried out in self-field conditions, involving 2D and 3D models and twisted around one slot of twist-pitched VIPER cable. Multiphysics simulations are mainly focused on the coil for the critical current evaluation, the magnetic field map, self-Lorentz forces and mechanical, and magnetothermal behavior and the quench dynamics. The detailed model and prediction of the superconducting performance of a stellarator-relevant demonstration cable from numerical simulations supports the results from the actual testing backing the results. A detailed description and results are provided in the later sections. (3) Design, fabrication, and optimization of support for the non-planar HTS Cable The team developed an additive manufactured (AM) coil positioning plate that formed into the required non-planar geometry (with bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and to acceptable tolerances required for a stellarator magnet: (+0.25-mm from ideal on dimensions of coil positioning plates and up to +1-mm from ideal for position of wound coil). The plate materials is also included in this selection process from fabrication and 3D printing perspective and commensurate with eventual application to a fusion reactor. From the cost effectiveness point of view, the HTS coil and plate has the potential to cost less than that made in conventional methods with less waste (<75% waste) reducing time (<50%) and cost (<50%), especially as the AM field matures. The application of advanced manufacturing in the construction of the support plates will also lead to cost reduction, as the cables can be easily replaced, thereby making the assembly modular. With such high primary cost and time savings, high current densities and magnetic field, the funded R&D work has validated the designs, proven the feasibility, and characterized the performance of the HTS coil and plate assembly, paving the way for a relevant-size stellarator coil system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗