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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-derived sea surface topography

Our primary objective is to carry out studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived sea level data set in conjunction with the large in situ sea level data set available at the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Sea Level Center. These studies will be supported by an interaction with numerical model simulations of tropical ocean variability. Five specific objectives can be identified: (1) research products; (2) short-term climate variations; (3) tropical-current variations; (4) synoptic-scale variability; and (5) model simulations.

Lukas, Roger↗

Thermoelastic stress - How important as a cause of earthquakes in young oceanic lithosphere?

Thermoelastic or thermal stress is a potentially important contributor to the state of stress in the oceanic lithosphere. The present paper provides several simple models for the state of thermoelastic stress in a young oceanic lithosphere, taking into account a comparison of the predictions of these models with the characteristics of near-ridge earthquakes. Attention is given to the characteristics of near-ridge earthquakes, sources of stress in an oceanic lithosphere, previous models of thermal stress, the calculation of thermal stress, and thermal stress models. A test is conducted of the hypothesis that thermoelastic stress is a significant component of the stress field in a young oceanic lithosphere. The considered models support the hypothesis that thermoelastic stress is a significant component of the stress field in a young oceanic lithosphere.

Bratt, S. R.↗

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Clayson, Carol Anne↗

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Chen, Yang↗

LongRunMIP - Motivation and Design for a Large Collection of Millennial-Length AO-GCM Simulations

LongRunMIP is the first collection of millennial-length simulations of complex coupled climate models and enables investigations of how these models equilibrate in response to radiative perturbations.We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1000+ year) simulations of complex coupled climate models with a representation of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface, and their interactions. Standard model simulations are generally only a few hundred years long. However, modeling the long-term equilibration in response to radiative forcing perturbation is important for understanding many climate phenomena, such as the evolution of ocean circulation, time-and temperature-dependent feedbacks, and the differentiation of forced signal and internal variability. The aim of LongRunMIP is to facilitate research into these questions by serving as an archive for simulations that capture as much of this equilibration as possible. The only requirement to participate in LongRunMIP is to contribute a simulation with elevated, constant CO2 forcing that lasts at least 1000 years. LongRunMIP is a MIP of opportunity in that the simulations were mostly performed prior to the conception of the archive without an agreed-upon set of experiments. For most models, the archive contains a preindustrial control simulation and simulations with an idealized (typically abrupt) CO2 forcing. We collect 2D surface and top-of-atmosphere fields, and 3D ocean temperature and salinity fields. Here, we document the collection of simulations and discuss initial results, including the evolution of surface and deep ocean temperature and cloud radiative effects. As of summer 2019, the collection includes 50 simulations of 15 models by 10 modeling centers. The data of LongRunMIP are publicly available. We encourage submission of more simulations in the future.

Maria Rugenstein↗

On the simulation of the oceanic general circulation

Two global ocean simulations based on the physics of a highly viscous ocean are discussed, one having realistic atmospheric functions for calculating the thermal forcing of the ocean. The velocity field of this model compares reasonably well with the relatively small amount of real data available. Temperature and heat budget components of the model reproduce best the equatorial band of heating. A simulation based upon the physics of a weakly viscous ocean is described, which produces the correct pattern of isotherms. This model has not yet been run to thermal equilibrium. The Gulf Stream and eddies and their influence on the oceanic and atmospheric heat budgets are discussed in the terms of their importance in coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

Mintz, Y.↗

The subtidal response of sea level to atmospheric forcing in the Carolina Capes

The subtidal frequency response of sea level to atmospheric forcing along the coastal region between Cape Hatteras and Charleston is investigated for a four-month period: 1 September-31 December, 1974. It is found that low-frequency sea level fluctuations are preferentially forced by wind stress components which are aligned with the local topography. Also, a localized, one-dimensional model of sea surface response to a clockwise rotating wind for the Charleston coastal regime is developed. The phase spectrum of the alongshore wind component versus sea level as predicted by the model is shown to compare favorably to that derived from actual observations at Charleston, an open ocean coastal site. The model results and observations also suggest that wind-induced fluctuations of coastal sea level are trapped within 40 km of the coast by the combined effects of friction, Coriolis force and bottom topography. The outer shelf is dominated by fluctuations which are less related to wind stress and are attenuated rapidly in the shoreward direction. A reasonable estimate of bottom frictional coefficient, r = 0.05 cm/s, is also established.

Chao, S.-Y.↗

Dust Aerosol Retrieval Over the Oceans With the MODIS/VIIRS Dark Target Algorithm: 2. Nonspherical Dust Model

The Dark‐target (DT) aerosol algorithm retrieves spectral Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and other aerosol properties from Moderate‐resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) reflectance observations. Over the ocean, the DT algorithm is known to contain scattering‐angle‐dependent biases in its retrievals of AOD, Angstrom Exponent (AE), and Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) for dust aerosols. Following a two‐step strategy to improve the DT retrieval of dust over ocean, for which the first step is to identify dusty pixels (reported in “Part 1”), in this “Part 2,” we report on construction of a new dust model lookup table (LUT) and the strategy for applying it within the existing DT algorithm. In particular, we evaluate different characterizations of dust optical properties from a variety of frameworks and databases, and compare them with the current DT retrieval assumptions. Substituting the standard operational LUT with a spheroid dust model with identified dusty pixels shows significant improvement when compared with collocated AERONET‐identified dusty pixels. Specifically, the application of the new dust model to dusty pixels reduces their AOD bias from 0.06 to 0.02 while improving the fraction of retrievals within expected error from 64% to 82%. At the same time, the overall bias in AE is reduced from 0.13 to 0.06, and the scattering‐angle‐dependent AE bias is largely eliminated. In testing on two full months of data (April and July), the new retrieval will reduce the monthly mean AOD by up to 0.1 and 0.2 in the north Atlantic and Arabian seas, respectively. The average AE and FMF are also reduced in these dust heavy regions

dust aerosol retrieval↗

An iterative radiative transfer code for ocean-atmosphere systems

The details of an iterative radiative transfer code for computing the intensity and degree of polarization of diffuse radiation in models of the ocean-atmosphere system are described. The present code neglects the upwelling radiation from below the ocean surface and as such can be applied to the part of the spectrum where the absorption by water is strong. To establish the reliability of the numerical scheme and the computer code, the results are compared with those of Fraser and Walker (1968), Dave (1972), and Mullamaa (1964); they are found to be in excellent agreement. The computations also show that both the intensity and the degree of polarization of the upwelling diffuse radiation at the top of the atmosphere vary significantly when the rough ocean at the base of the atmosphere is replaced by a Lambertian surface that reflects the same energy as the rough ocean.

Ahmad, Z.↗

Tidal Heating in Multilayered Terrestrial Exoplanets

The internal pattern and overall magnitude of tidal heating for spin-synchronous terrestrial exoplanets from 1 to 2.5 R(sub E) is investigated using a propagator matrix method for a variety of layer structures. Particular attention is paid to ice-silicate hybrid super-Earths, where a significant ice mantle is modeled to rest atop an iron-silicate core, and may or may not contain a liquid water ocean. We find multilayer modeling often increases tidal dissipation relative to a homogeneous model, across multiple orbital periods, due to the ability to include smaller volume low viscosity regions, and the added flexure allowed by liquid layers. Gradations in parameters with depth are explored, such as allowed by the Preliminary Earth Reference Model. For ice-silicate hybrid worlds, dramatically greater dissipation is possible beyond the case of a silicate mantle only, allowing non-negligible tidal activity to extend to greater orbital periods than previously predicted. Surface patterns of tidal heating are found to potentially be useful for distinguishing internal structure. The influence of ice mantle depth and water ocean size and position are shown for a range of forcing frequencies. Rates of orbital circularization are found to be 10-100 times faster than standard predictions for Earth-analog planets when interiors are moderately warmer than the modern Earth, as well as for a diverse range of ice-silicate hybrid super-Earths. Circularization rates are shown to be significantly longer for planets with layers equivalent to an ocean-free modern Earth, as well as for planets with high fractions of either ice or silicate melting.

celestial mechanics↗

The Implications of Tides on the Mimas Ocean Hypothesis

We investigate whether a present-day global ocean within Mimas is compatible with the lack of tectonic activity on its surface by computing tidal stresses for ocean-bearing interior structure models derived from observed librations. We find that, for the suite of compatible rheological models, peak surface tidal stresses caused by Mimas' high eccentricity would range from a factor of 2 smaller to an order of magnitude larger than those on tidally active Europa. Thermal stresses from a freezing ocean, or a past higher eccentricity, would enhance present-day tidal stresses, exceeding the magnitudes associated with Europa's ubiquitous tidally driven fractures and, in some cases, the failure strength of ice in laboratory studies. Therefore, in order for Mimas to have an ocean, its ice shell cannot fail at the stress values implied for Europa. Furthermore, if Mimas' ocean is freezing out, the ice shell must also be able to withstand thermal stresses that could be an order of magnitude higher than the failure strength of laboratory ice samples. In light of these challenges, we consider an ocean-free Mimas to be the most straightforward model, best supported by our tidal stress analysis.

Rhoden, Alyssa Rose↗

The Response of the North Atlantic Bloom to NAO Forcing

Results from the climatologically forced coupled ice/ocean/biogeochemical model that covers the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans are presented and compared to the chlorophyll fields of satellite-derived ocean color measurements. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the interactions among four phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) and four nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicate and dissolved iron). The model simulates the general large-scale pattern in April, May and June, when compared to both satellite-derived and in situ observations. The subpolar North Atlantic was cool in the 1980s and warm in the latter 1990s, corresponding to the CZCS and SeaWiFS satellite observing periods, respectively. The oceanographic conditions during these periods resemble the typical subpolar upper ocean response to the NAO+ and NAO-phases, respectively. Thus, we use the atmospheric forcing composites from the two NAO phases to simulate the variability of the mid-ocean bloom during the satellite observing periods. The model results show that when the subpolar North Atlantic is cool, the NAO+ case, more nutrients are available in early spring than when the North Atlantic is warm, the NAO-case. However, the NAO+ simulation produces a later bloom than the NAO-simulation. This difference in the bloom times is also identified in SeaWiFS and CZCS satellite measurements. In the model results, we can trace the difference to the early diatom bloom due to a warmer upper ocean. The higher nutrient abundance in the NAO+ case did not provide larger total production than in the NAO- case, instead the two cases had a comparable area averaged amplitude. This leads us to conclude that in the subpolar North Atlantic, the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom depends on surface temperature and the magnitude of the bloom is not significantly impacted by the nutrient abundance.

Mizoguchi, Ken-Ichi↗

The Earth System Model

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Schoeberl, Mark↗