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DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO 2 . This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10,000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO 2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology develo pers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A realistic TRACE PWR LOCA model with application to high-burnup analysis

This paper presents a TRACE model of a postulated large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) event in a four-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR). The input files have been made publicly available and serve as a starting point for researchers to improve upon or apply to their purposes. The model, based on a legacy PWR model, contains numerous improvements and modifications consistent with US Nuclear Regulatory Commission LBLOCA analysis guidelines. The model is applied to analyze high-burnup (>62 GWD/MTU) fuel behavior during LBLOCA, improving on previous work to provide realistic thermal hydraulic predictions for future fuel performance analyses and experiments related to fission fragment, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Sensitivity studies are presented to quantify the impact of the vessel-modeling approach, core radial discretization, and other phenomena. In conclusion, the model is intended for research purposes and contains sufficient plant geometric, operational, and safety system details to represent the main physical phenomena pertaining to LBLOCA.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical investigation of equivalence ratio effects on Flex-Fuel mixing controlled combustion enabled by prechamber ignition

There is interest in adapting renewable and low-carbon intensity fuels to heavy-duty engines to help displace criteria and greenhouse gas emissions associated with diesel combustion. Low-carbon fuels have inherently low cetane numbers and thus pose a significant challenge when considering direct substitution in diesel combustion systems. Use of an actively fueled prechamber as an ignition source to initiate mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) of low-cetane fuels is becoming an attractive combustion mode to alleviate the identified reactivity deficit. This work focuses on the utilization of an active prechamber to facilitate diesel-like combustion of bioethanol-gasoline fuel blends in a heavy-duty engine. Recent results in this emerging technology suggest that ignition quality is uniquely coupled to prechamber equivalence ratio. In this numerical study, the fundamental implications of prechamber equivalence ratio on the ignition performance of direct injected fuels ranging from E10 to E100 are investigated using CONVERGE. Parametric studies of the prechamber operating strategy were assessed at diesel-like conditions to characterize the performance trends relative to a diesel baseline at the same boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that PC-MCC is flex-fuel capable and achieves diesel-like ignition qualities and combustion processes for all fuels considered under stoichiometric and rich prechamber conditions. To characterize the equivalence ratio trends observed, a novel inflow boundary modeling technique was utilized to prescribe turbulent jets in place of the prechamber where selective speciation of the jet composition was conducted to isolate the ignition contributions of radical and reacting species in lean, stoichiometric, and rich jets. The inflow boundary modeling suggests that excess fuel and combustion intermediates present in jets produced from stratified and fuel-rich prechamber operation promotes higher jet temperatures and as such are superior ignition sources. Relative to a lean prechamber jet, the peak temperature of a reacting jet from a rich prechamber was up to 600 K hotter at fixed distances from the orifice exit. Furthermore, radicals also demonstrated an influence on the ignition process, but the combustion mode was identified to be thermally dominant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rheology of bi-disperse dense fiber suspensions

While significant progress has been made in the modeling and simulation of uniform fiber suspensions, no existing model has been validated for industrially-relevant concentrated suspensions containing fibers of multiple aspect ratios. In the present work, we investigate bi-disperse suspensions with two fiber populations in varying aspect ratios in a steady shear flow using direct numerical simulations. Moreover, we measure the suspension viscosity by creating a controlled length bidispersity for nylon fibers suspended in a Newtonian fluid. Here the results showed good agreement between the experimentally measured and numerically predicted viscosity for bi-disperse suspensions. The ratio between the aspect ratio of large to small fibers (size ratio) and the volume fraction of large fibers (composition) in bi-disperse systems strongly affected the rheological behavior of the suspension. The increment of relative viscosity associated with size ratio and composition can be explained by the decrease in the maximum flowable limit or jamming volume fraction. Moreover, the relative viscosity of bi-disperse suspensions collapses, when plotted against the reduced volume fraction, demonstrating the controlling influence of the jamming fraction in bi-disperse fiber suspensions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient phase-factor evaluation in quantum signal processing

Quantum signal processing (QSP) is a powerful quantum algorithm to exactly implement matrix polynomials on quantum computers. Asymptotic analysis of quantum algorithms based on QSP has shown that asymptotically optimal results can in principle be obtained for a range of tasks, such as Hamiltonian simulation and the quantum linear system problem. A further benefit of QSP is that it uses a minimal number of ancilla qubits, which facilitates its implementation on near-to-intermediate term quantum architectures. However, there is so far no classically stable algorithm allowing computation of the phase factors that are needed to build QSP circuits. Existing methods require the use of variable precision arithmetic and can only be applied to polynomials of a relatively low degree. We present here an optimization-based method that can accurately compute the phase factors using standard double precision arithmetic operations. We demonstrate the performance of this approach with applications to Hamiltonian simulation, eigenvalue filtering, and quantum linear system problems. Furthermore, our numerical results show that the optimization algorithm can find phase factors to accurately approximate polynomials of a degree larger than 10000 with errors below 10 -12 .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Survey of Open-Source Tools for Transmission and Distribution Systems Research

This work presents a review of open-source electric power transmission and distribution systems analysis tools suitable for use by industry professionals and academic researchers. Due to the high complexity of the electric grid, there exist numerous tools and extensive research pertaining to nearly every aspect of the design, operation, and control of transmission and distribution networks. In addition to the commercial tools, a wide range of free, open-source tools, models, and data usable by the scientific community for related research have been developed by different organizations, including both international and US universities and national laboratories. However, due to the absence of a catalog of available tools, models and data, researchers often lack a knowledge of existing capabilities and may develop duplicative software and tools. Increasing awareness of these available resources seeks to accelerate their broader use, leading to more efficient and standardized grid analysis. This review paper (which is part of a larger survey effort that studied over 400 tools in the transmission, distribution, buildings, and electric vehicles space) outlines selected open-source resources that have been developed in power transmission and distribution systems research. It is anticipated that this work can serve as a guide for industry and academic researchers alike, ensuring that research efforts are well-channeled.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Multitime Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs for Certain Scientific Machine Learning Problems

Hamilton-Jacobi partial differential equations (HJ PDEs) have deep connections with a wide range of fields, including optimal control, differential games, and imaging sciences. By considering the time variable to be a higher dimensional quantity, HJ PDEs can be extended to the multi-time case. In this paper, we establish a novel theoretical connection between specific optimization problems arising in machine learning and the multi-time Hopf formula, which corresponds to a representation of the solution to certain multi-time HJ PDEs. Through this connection, we increase the interpretability of the training process of certain machine learning applications by showing that when we solve these learning problems, we also solve a multi-time HJ PDE and, by extension, its corresponding optimal control problem. As a first exploration of this connection, we develop the relation between the regularized linear regression problem and the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). We then leverage our theoretical connection to adapt standard LQR solvers (namely, those based on the Riccati ordinary differential equations) to design new training approaches for machine learning. Lastly, we provide some numerical examples that demonstrate the versatility and possible computational advantages of our Riccati-based approach in the context of continual learning, post-training calibration, transfer learning, and sparse dynamics identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Snow and sea ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the 5 MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem, and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing, and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice–ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ice Nucleating Particles, Aerosols and Clouds over the Higher Latitude Southern Ocean

Improved understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions is a key goal of the DOE-ASR program. Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) are rare aerosol particles that trigger ice formation in clouds. By doing so they may initiate precipitation in clouds, and this impacts cloud lifetime. Nowhere may the role of INPs be manifested so dramatically as in the Southern Ocean (SO). This vast region was the focus of the DOE-ARM MARCUS (Measurement of Aerosols, Radiation and CloUds over the Southern Oceans) and MICRE (Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment) campaigns. In the SO, a deficit of INPs has been a leading hypothesis for why liquid clouds persist, which underlays the bias of global climate models in predicting excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface between 55°S and Antarctica. In this study, we used the 6-month acquisition of INP data on four MARCUS cruises from Hobart, Tasmania, to Antarctica, and the single-location full annual INP cycle observed in MICRE, to gain a holistic, quantitative picture of the INP number concentrations as a function of temperature and their variability over SO latitudes from 43°S to Antarctica. Augmenting initial processing of filter collections of aerosol particles during MARCUS and MICRE, additional freezing studies following thermal treatment (to removes INPs associated with microbes) and peroxide treatment (to remove all organics), as well as ionic chemistry and total organic carbon analysis, were applied to samples to improve time and space resolution, and differentiate marine from terrestrial contributions. We also performed Next Generation Sequencing to determine that bacterial composition can tag periods of enhanced and degraded marine organic INPs and the relative lack of occurrence of land-sourced bio-particles. Through these and other analyses, INP data were categorized into representative source types (e.g., marine versus terrestrially-influenced). The products of our analyses are being used to parameterize ice formation for use in numerical modeling studies to determine if, and when, ocean-derived INPs control the microphysical composition and radiative balance of SO clouds in a manner not presently captured by global models. The specific objectives and approaches proposed were largely accomplished, including: 1) Additional and value-added chemical and biological analyses of archived samples of aerosols were completed to categorize and quantify INP types and concentrations over the SO. 2) Analyses were completed to place INP data in meteorological and aerosol context. 3) Sea spray aerosol INPs were demonstrated to dominate the SO region in all but episodic events. 4) New parameterizations for INP sources relevant to the SO were constructed. 5) Collaborative modeling studies demonstrating the crucial role of INPs in determining cloud radiative and precipitation properties were conducted with MARCUS and MICRE partners. Collaborative publication submissions in this regard ensued within the two year study. This work will advance the science of interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, to improve their representation in regional and global climate models. Results have informed representation of primary ice crystal nucleation, give inference to the role of secondary processes, and improve investigations of aerosol influences on clouds via ice nucleation over SO high latitudes and similar vast ocean regions. Application will improve representation of such interactions for clouds in both regional and global climate models. The data base and analyses methods applied will continue to serve research studies in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Modeling Approaches for Understanding and Monitoring the Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy

Understanding the environmental effects of marine energy (ME) devices is fundamental for their sustainable development and efficient regulation. However, measuring effects is difficult given the limited number of operational devices currently deployed. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating environmental effects and quantifying risks. It is most effective when informed by empirical data and coordinated with the development and implementation of monitoring protocols. We reviewed modeling techniques and information needs for six environmental stressor–receptor interactions related to ME: changes in oceanographic systems, underwater noise, electromagnetic fields (EMFs), changes in habitat, collision risk, and displacement of marine animals. This review considers the effects of tidal, wave, and ocean current energy converters. We summarized the availability and maturity of models for each stressor–receptor interaction and provide examples involving ME devices when available and analogous examples otherwise. Models for oceanographic systems and underwater noise were widely available and sometimes applied to ME, but need validation in real-world settings. Many methods are available for modeling habitat change and displacement of marine animals, but few examples related to ME exist. Models of collision risk and species response to EMFs are still in stages of theory development and need more observational data, particularly about species behavior near devices, to be effective. We conclude by synthesizing model status, commonalities between models, and overlapping monitoring needs that can be exploited to develop a coordinated and efficient set of protocols for predicting and monitoring the environmental effects of ME.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evidence that the Hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b Formed Beyond Its Parent Protoplanetary Disk’s H2O Ice Line

Idealized protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models have been interpreted to suggest that a giant planet's atmospheric abundances can be used to infer its formation location in its parent protoplanetary disk. It has recently been reported that the hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b has subsolar atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances with a solar C/O abundance ratio. Assuming solar carbon and oxygen abundances for its host star WASP-77 A, WASP-77 A b's atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances possibly indicate that it accreted its envelope interior to its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line from carbon-depleted gas with little subsequent planetesimal accretion or core erosion. We show that the photospheric abundances of carbon and oxygen in WASP-77 A are supersolar with a subsolar C/O abundance ratio, implying that WASP-77 A b's atmosphere has significantly substellar carbon and oxygen abundances with a superstellar C/O ratio. Our result possibly indicates that WASP-77 A b's envelope was accreted by the planet beyond its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line. While numerous theoretical complications to these idealized models have now been identified, the possibility of nonsolar protoplanetary disk abundance ratios confound even the most sophisticated protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models. We therefore argue that giant planet atmospheric abundance ratios can only be meaningfully interpreted relative to the possibly nonsolar mean compositions of their parent protoplanetary disks as recorded in the photospheric abundances of their dwarf host stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Dark Photon Emission on Massive Star Evolution and Pre-supernova Neutrino Signal

Abstract We study the effects of additional cooling due to the emission of a dark matter candidate particle, the dark photon, on the final phases of the evolution of a 15 M ⊙ star and resulting modifications of the pre-supernova neutrino signal. For a substantial portion of the dark photon parameter space the extra cooling speeds up Si burning, which results in a reduced number of neutrinos emitted during the last day before core collapse. This reduction can be described by a systematic acceleration of the relevant timescales and the results can be estimated semi-analytically in good agreement with the numerical simulations. Outside the semi-analytic regime we find more complicated effects. In a narrow parameter range, low-mass dark photons lead to an increase in the number of emitted neutrinos because of additional shell-burning episodes that delay core collapse. Furthermore, relatively strong couplings produce a thermonuclear runaway during O burning, which could result in a complete disruption of the star but requires more detailed simulations to determine the outcome. Our results show that pre-supernova neutrino signals are a potential probe of the dark photon parameter space.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interaction of Inner Heliosheath Ions with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

Abstract Inner heliosheath (IHS) ions are expected to be exposed to various waves, shocks, and turbulence, which can affect ion distributions and thus their charge-exchange rates with interstellar neutral atoms. This work addresses the potential significance of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves under expected IHS conditions. From a kinetic dispersion relation, we find the possibility of frequent triggering of EMIC instability in the IHS. The threshold anisotropy of proton temperatures required for the instability is small, ( T ⊥ – T ∣∣ )/ T ∣∣ ≈ 0.1 or less, mainly due to high plasma β (ratio of the plasma to magnetic pressures). Numerical calculations on the scattering of ions (protons, He + , and He 2+ with energy of 0.01–50 keV) based on two models for EMIC waves with a moderate intensity indicate significant scattering in the pitch angle (mostly a few tens of degrees) and energy (mostly a few tens of percent) although details depend on the energy and pitch angle of each species and adopted EMIC wave models. This occurs on a short timescale (<100 times the gyro-period of each ion species). Resonant scattering in a few to a few tens of keV (corresponding to the expected pickup ion energy in the IHS) is easily expected unless the wavenumber is too large. The scattering effect is distinguished among different species such that for lower gyrofrequency ions (He + versus He 2+ and He 2+ versus protons), the main scattering effect moves toward a lower energy domain. All these results imply continuous disturbance of ion distributions by possibly prevailing EMIC waves in the IHS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydraulic characterization of a fault zone from fracture distribution

A quantitative assessment of how faults control the migration of geofluids is critical in many areas of geosciences. Here we integrated geological fieldwork, quantitative analysis of the fractures distribution and numerical modeling to build a geometrical representation of a fault zone and to characterize its hydraulic properties. Our target is a fault located in the Majella Mountain (Italy). We collected 21 scan lines across the fault profile in order to characterize its architecture. The numerical modeling of the fracture network of the damage zones and their hydraulic parameters was performed using both commercial (Move ® ) and open source software (dfnWorks and PFLOTRAN). Move ® was used to build a representative model of the fault zone using fracture spacing as a proxy, and to model the hydraulic parameters of the different fault domains. dfnWorks and PFLOTRAN were employed to infer the hydraulic parameters of the damage zones of the fault and then upscale these properties to an equivalent continuum domain, suitable for fluid flow simulations through the whole fault zone. Our findings show how even in a relatively small area it is possible to describe changes in terms of hydraulic properties of a fault zone and to build models capable to represent these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fine Root and Soil Organic Carbon Depth Distributions are Inversely Related Across Fertility and Rainfall Gradients in Lowland Tropical Forests

Humid tropical forests contain some of the largest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks on Earth. Much of this SOC is in subsoil, yet variation in the distribution of SOC through the soil profile remains poorly characterized across tropical forests. We used a correlative approach to quantify relationships among depth distributions of SOC, fine root biomass, nutrients and texture to 1 m depths across 43 lowland tropical forests in Panama. The sites span rainfall and soil fertility gradients, and these are largely uncorrelated for these sites. We used fitted b parameters to characterize depth distributions, where b is a numerical index based on an asymptotic relationship, such that larger b values indicate greater concentrations of root biomass or SOC at depth in the profile. Root b values ranged from 0.82 to 0.95 and were best predicted by soil pH and extractable potassium (K) stocks. For example, the three most acidic (pH < 4) and Kpoor (< 20 g K m -2 ) soils contained 76 ± 5% of fine root biomass from 0 to 10 cm depth, while the three least acidic (pH > 6.0) and most K-rich (> 50 g K m -2 ) soils contained only 41 ± 9% of fine root biomass at this depth. Root b and SOC b values were inversely related, such that a large fine root biomass in surface soils corresponded to large SOC stocks in subsoils (50–100 cm). SOC b values were best predicted by soil pH and base cation stocks, with the three most base-poor soils containing 34 ± 8% of SOC from 50 to 100 cm depth, and the three most base-rich soils containing just 9 ± 2% of SOC at this depth. Nutrient depth distributions were not related to Root b or SOC b values. Here, these data show that large surface root biomass stocks are associated with large subsoil C stocks in strongly weathered tropical soils. Further studies are required to evaluate why this occurs, and whether changes in surface root biomass, as may occur with global change, could in turn influence SOC storage in tropical forest subsoils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗