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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

BRAINSTACK – A Platform for Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Collaborative Experiments on a Nano-Satellite

As space missions continue to become more ambitious, complex, and distant to Earth, the need for advanced on-board intelligent decision making to guide everything from mission operations to fault detection and recovery has become a major front of space research. While the prevalence of research on such Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) modules has exploded, the capacity to experimentally validate such modules in space in a rapid and inexpensive format has not. To this end, the Nano Orbital Workshop (NOW) group at NASA Ames Research Center has been at the forefront of performing initial flight evaluation tests of ‘commercially’ available AI/ML computational platforms via the TechEdSat (TES-n) flight series as part of what is programmatically referred to as the BRAINSTACK. BRAINSTACK will provide an orbital AI/ML evaluation laboratory where computational experiments are pre-loaded into memory prior to launch, and then executed as desired during the mission, with results reported back and program tweaks or new data sets uploaded as needed. Processors selected as part of the BRAINSTACK are of ideal size, packaging, and power consumption for easy integration into a cube satellite structure. These experiments have included the evaluation of small, high-performance GPUs and more recently, neuromorphic processors in LEO operations. Neuromorphic processors are of particular interest due to their superior computational power efficiency over GPUs. The first TES-n flight test of an Intel first-generation Loihi neuromorphic processor launched on January 13, 2022 and continues to operate in orbit despite almost no space environment modifications. The Intel Loihi Gen-1 is characterized by a 14nm 128-core Spiking Neural Network (SNN) able to support on-chip training. This experiment utilized a Loihi packaged in the ‘Kapoho Bay’ USB module, providing a relatively straight-forward interface to the bus avionics system. The Kapoho Bay was in turn managed by a host Intel Pentium single-board computer to handle scheduling of the AI/ML application payloads, and communications with the satellite vehicle manager. The recently released Intel Loihi Gen-2, able to support integer-valued spike payloads and produced using 7nm process, will form part of the basis of the evolving BRAINSTACK in the upcoming three TES-n/NOW flights. Additionally, it is planned to measure the radiation environment these processors experience to understand any degradation or computational artifacts caused by long term space radiation exposure on these novel architectures. This evolving flexible and collaborative environment involving various research teams across NASA and other organizations is intended to be a convenient orbital test platform from which many anticipated future space AI/ML applications may be initially tested.

Artificial Intelligence↗

NASTRAN postprocessor program for transient response to input accelerations

The description of a transient analysis program for computing structural responses to input base accelerations is presented. A hybrid modal formulation is used and a procedure is demonstrated for generating and writing all modal input data on user tapes via NASTRAN. Use of several new Level 15 modules is illustrated along with a problem associated with reading the postprocessor program input from a user tape. An example application of the program is presented for the analysis of a spacecraft subjected to accelerations initiated by thrust transients. Experience with the program has indicated it to be very efficient and economical because of its simplicity and small central memory storage requirements.

Wingate, R. T.↗

Environmental Assessment and Monitoring with ICAMS (Image Characterization and Modeling System) Using Multiscale Remote-Sensing Data

With the rapid increase in spatial data, especially in the NASA-EOS (Earth Observing System) era, it is necessary to develop efficient and innovative tools to handle and analyze these data so that environmental conditions can be assessed and monitored. A main difficulty facing geographers and environmental scientists in environmental assessment and measurement is that spatial analytical tools are not easily accessible. We have recently developed a remote sensing/GIS software module called Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS) to provide specialized spatial analytical tools for the measurement and characterization of satellite and other forms of spatial data. ICAMS runs on both the Intergraph-MGE and Arc/info UNIX and Windows-NT platforms. The main techniques in ICAMS include fractal measurement methods, variogram analysis, spatial autocorrelation statistics, textural measures, aggregation techniques, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and delineation of land/water and vegetated/non-vegetated boundaries. In this paper, we demonstrate the main applications of ICAMS on the Intergraph-MGE platform using Landsat Thematic Mapper images from the city of Lake Charles, Louisiana. While the utilities of ICAMS' spatial measurement methods (e.g., fractal indices) in assessing environmental conditions remain to be researched, making the software available to a wider scientific community can permit the techniques in ICAMS to be evaluated and used for a diversity of applications. The findings from these various studies should lead to improved algorithms and more reliable models for environmental assessment and monitoring.

Lam, N.↗

Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Setting and Results

Soft temporal constraints problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. Machine learning techniques can be useful in this respect. In this paper we describe two solvers (one more general and the other one more efficient) for tractable subclasses of soft temporal problems, and we show some experimental results. The random generator used to build the problems on which tests are performed is also described. We also compare the two solvers highlighting the tradeoff between performance and representational power. Finally, we present a learning module and we show its behavior on randomly-generated examples.

Rossi, F.↗

Effects of Lateral Plasma Density and Temperature Diffusion on VCSEL Performance

The hydrodynamic model is further verified by applying to a gain-guided single mode VCSEL. DC effects of D(sub NN): (1) increase threshold current J(sub th) and decrease slope efficiency; (2) within the studied range (50% pumping within threshold and realistic diffusion coefficient for a single mode), the L-I relation scales with the relative Injection current (J/J(sub th) - 1). AC effects of D(sub NN): (1) decrease spectral bandwidth and responsivity of direct-current modulation; (2) within the studied range, the frequency response follows the same formal dependence as predicted without diffusion and under a linear gain model, while the resonant frequency position similarly scales with the relative injection current; (3) therefore, it is concluded that the AC effects of D(sub NN) is purely of static nature and reflected via its influence on ot and J(sub th). Within this study, the nonlinear effects of D(sub NN) are mostly reproducible with an equivalent constant diffusion coefficient.

Li, Jian-Zhong↗

Power Conversion with a Stirling Cycle for Venus Surface Mission

The light-filtering characteristic of the dense, mostly-CO2 atmosphere of Venus, combined with the high atmospheric cloud cover, relegates the surface mission use of photovoltaic power systems and beckons for the independence and reliability of a nuclear-powered energy source. A multi-faceted Venus mission study was completed at NASA GRC in December of 2003 that resulted in the preliminary design of a helium- charged, kinematic Stirling converter, which is powered by nuclear, General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules. The kinematic, Stirling power converter is configured to drive an electronics and sensor cooler in addition to a generator for electrical power. This paper briefly describes the design process and also describes and summarizes key features of the Stirling power converter preliminary design concept. With an estimated total efficiency of 23.4%, the power converter drives the electronics and sensor cooler, and also produces 100 watts of electricity. The converter rejects waste heat at a hot sink temperature of 500 C.

Mellott, Ken↗

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Per-Target Flux-Level Transit Injection Tests of TPS for Data Release 25

Quantifying the ability of a transiting planet survey to recover transit signals has commonly been accomplished through Monte-Carlo injection of transit signals into the observed data and subsequent running of the signal search algorithm (Gilliland et al., 2000; Weldrake et al., 2005; Burke et al., 2006). In order to characterize the performance of the Kepler pipeline (Twicken et al., 2016; Jenkins et al., 2017) on a sample of over 200,000 stars, two complementary injection and recovery tests are utilized:1. Injection of a single transit signal per target into the image or pixel-level data, hereafter referred to as pixel-level transit injection (PLTI), with subsequent processing through the Photometric Analysis (PA), Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC), Transiting Planet Search (TPS), and Data Validation (DV) modules of the Kepler pipeline. The PLTI quantification of the Kepler pipeline's completeness has been described previously by Christiansen et al. (2015, 2016); the completeness of the final SOC 9.3 Kepler pipeline acting on the Data Release 25 (DR25) light curves is described by Christiansen (2017).2. Injection of multiple transit signals per target into the normalized flux time series data with a subsequent transit search using a stream-lined version of the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) module. This test, hereafter referred to as flux-level transit injection (FLTI), is the subject of this document. By running a heavily modified version of TPS, FLTI is able to perform many injections on selected targets and determine in some detail which injected signals are recoverable. Significant numerical efficiency gains are enabled by precomputing the data conditioning steps at the onset of TPS and limiting the search parameter space (i.e., orbital period, transit duration, and ephemeris zero-point) to a small region around each injected transit signal.The PLTI test has the advantage that it follows transit signals through all processing steps of the Kepler pipeline, and the recovered signals can be further classified as planet candidates or false positives in the exact same manner as detections from the nominal (i.e., observed) pipeline run (Twicken et al., 2016, Thompson et al., in preparation). To date, the PLTI test has been the standard means of measuring pipeline completeness averaged over large samples of targets (Christiansen et al., 2015, 2016; Christiansen, 2017). However, since the PLTI test uses only one injection per target, it does not elucidate individual-target variations in pipeline completeness due to differences in stellar properties or astrophysical variability. Thus, we developed the FLTI test to provide a numerically efficient way to fully map individual targets and explore the performance of the pipeline in greater detail. The FLTI tests thereby allow a thorough validation of the pipeline completeness models (such as window function (Burke and Catanzarite, 2017a), detection efficiency (Burke Catanzarite, 2017b), etc.) across the spectrum of Kepler targets (i.e., various astrophysical phenomena and differences in instrumental noise). Tests during development of the FLTI capability revealed that there are significant target-to-target variations in the detection efficiency.

DR25↗

Combustion of hydrogen in a two-dimensional duct with step fuel injectors

An investigation of the combustion of hydrogen perpendicularly injected from step fuel injectors into a Mach 2.72, 2100 K vitiated test gas was conducted. The model simulated the flow between the center and side struts of an integrated scramjet module at Mach 7 flight and an altitude of 29 km. Parametric variation included equivalence ratio, fuel dynamic pressure ratio, and area distribution of the model. The overall area ratio of the model was held constant at 2.87. The data analysis indicated that no measurable improvement in mixing or combustion efficiency was obtained by varying the fuel dynamic pressure ratio from 0.79 to 2.45. Computations indicated approximately 80 percent of the fuel was mixed so that it could react; however, only approximately 50 percent of the mixed fuel actually reacted in two test configurations, and 74 percent in later tests where less area expansion of the flow occurred.

Eggers, J. M.↗

Developing CORBA-Based Distributed Scientific Applications From Legacy Fortran Programs

An efficient methodology is presented for integrating legacy applications written in Fortran into a distributed object framework. Issues and strategies regarding the conversion and decomposition of Fortran codes into Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) objects are discussed. Fortran codes are modified as little as possible as they are decomposed into modules and wrapped as objects. A new conversion tool takes the Fortran application as input and generates the C/C++ header file and Interface Definition Language (IDL) file. In addition, the performance of the client server computing is evaluated.

Sang, Janche↗

Reusable Rack Interface Controller Common Software for Various Science Research Racks on the International Space Station

The purpose of the EXPRESS (Expedite the PRocessing of Experiments to Space Station) rack project is to provide a set of predefined interfaces for scientific payloads which allow rapid integration into a payload rack on International Space Station (ISS). VxWorks' was selected as the operating system for the rack and payload resource controller, primarily based on the proliferation of VME (Versa Module Eurocard) products. These products provide needed flexibility for future hardware upgrades to meet everchanging science research rack configuration requirements. On the International Space Station, there are multiple science research rack configurations, including: 1) Human Research Facility (HRF); 2) EXPRESS ARIS (Active Rack Isolation System); 3) WORF (Window Observational Research Facility); and 4) HHR (Habitat Holding Rack). The RIC (Rack Interface Controller) connects payloads to the ISS bus architecture for data transfer between the payload and ground control. The RIC is a general purpose embedded computer which supports multiple communication protocols, including fiber optic communication buses, Ethernet buses, EIA-422, Mil-Std-1553 buses, SMPTE (Society Motion Picture Television Engineers)-170M video, and audio interfaces to payloads and the ISS. As a cost saving and software reliability strategy, the Boeing Payload Software Organization developed reusable common software where appropriate. These reusable modules included a set of low-level driver software interfaces to 1553B. RS232, RS422, Ethernet buses, HRDL (High Rate Data Link), video switch functionality, telemetry processing, and executive software hosted on the FUC computer. These drivers formed the basis for software development of the HRF, EXPRESS, EXPRESS ARIS, WORF, and HHR RIC executable modules. The reusable RIC common software has provided extensive benefits, including: 1) Significant reduction in development flow time; 2) Minimal rework and maintenance; 3) Improved reliability; and 4) Overall reduction in software life cycle cost. Due to the limited number of crew hours available on ISS for science research, operational efficiency is a critical customer concern. The current method of upgrading RIC software is a time consuming process; thus, an improved methodology for uploading RIC software is currently under evaluation.

Lu, George C.↗

Deep Broad-Band Infrared Nulling Using A Single-Mode Fiber Beam Combiner and Baseline Rotation

The basic advantage of single-mode fibers for deep nulling applications resides in their spatial filtering ability, and has now long been known. However, and as suggested more recently, a single-mode fiber can also be used for direct coherent recombination of spatially separated beams, i.e. in a 'multi-axial' nulling scheme. After the first successful demonstration of deep (<2e-6) visible LASER nulls using this technique (Haguenauer & Serabyn, Applied Optics 2006), we decided to work on an infrared extension for ground based astronomical observations, e.g. using two or more off-axis sub-apertures of a large ground based telescope. In preparation for such a system, we built and tested a laboratory infrared fiber nuller working in a wavelength regime where atmospheric turbulence can be efficiently corrected, over a pass band (approx.1.5 to 1.8 micron) broad enough to provide reasonable sensitivity. In addition, since no snapshot images are readily accessible with a (single) fiber nuller, we also tested baseline rotation as an approach to detect off-axis companions while keeping a central null. This modulation technique is identical to the baseline rotation envisioned for the TPF-I space mission. Within this context, we report here on early laboratory results showing deep stable broad-band dual polarization infrared nulls <5e-4 (currently limited by detector noise), and visible LASER nulls better than 3e-4 over a 360 degree rotation of the baseline. While further work will take place in the laboratory to achieve deeper stable broad-band nulls and test off-axis sources detection through rotation, the emphasis will be put on bringing such a system to a telescope as soon as possible. Detection capability at the 500:1 contrast ratio in the K band (~2.2 microns) seem readily accessible within 50-100 mas of the optical axis, even with a first generation system mounted on a >5m AO equipped telescope such as the Palomar Hale 200 inch, the Keck, Subaru or Gemini telescopes.

single mode fibers↗

Isotopic Effects in Nuclear Fragmentation and GCR Transport Problems

Improving the accuracy of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment and transport models is an important goal in preparing for studies of the projected risks and the efficiency of potential mitigations methods for space exploration. In this paper we consider the effects of the isotopic composition of the primary cosmic rays and the isotopic dependence of nuclear fragmentation cross sections on GCR transport models. Measurements are used to describe the isotopic composition of the GCR including their modulation throughout the solar cycle. The quantum multiple-scattering approach to nuclear fragmentation (QMSFRG) is used as the data base generator in order to accurately describe the odd-even effect in fragment production. Using the Badhwar and O'Neill GCR model, the QMSFRG model and the HZETRN transport code, the effects of the isotopic dependence of the primary GCR composition and on fragment production for transport problems is described for a complete GCR isotopic-grid. The principle finding of this study is that large errors ( 100%) will occur in the mass-flux spectra when comparing the complete isotopic-grid (141 ions) to a reduced isotopic-grid (59 ions), however less significant errors 30%) occur in the elemental-flux spectra. Because the full isotopic-grid is readily handled on small computer work-stations, it is recommended that they be used for future GCR studies.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Reusable Hybrid Propellant Modules for Outer-Space Transport

A report summarizes the concept of reusable hybrid propellant modules (HPMs), which would be used in outer space for long-term cryogenic storage of liquefied spacecraft-propellant gases, including for example, oxygen and hydrogen for combustion-based chemical rocket engines and xenon for electric thrusters. The HPM concept would provide the fundamental building block for an efficient, reusable in-space transportation system for both crewed and uncrewed missions. Each HPM would be equipped to implement an advanced zero-boil-off method of managing cryogenic fluids, and would include a fluid-transfer interface comprising standardized fittings that would be compatible with fittings on all supply facilities and on spacecraft to be supplied. The HPM, combined with a chemical or electric orbital transfer spacecraft, would provide an integrated propulsion system. HPMs would supply chemical propellant for time-critical transfers such as crewed missions, and utilize the more efficient electric-propulsion transfer vehicles to transport filled HPMs to the destinations and to return empty HPMs back to near-Earth orbits or other intermediate locations for replenishment and reuse. The HPM prepositioned using electric propulsion would provide the chemical propellant for the crew s return trip in a much more efficient manner than a chemical-only approach. The propellants to fill the HPMs would be delivered from the Earth or other initial supply locations to the intermediate locations by use of automated, compatible spacecraft designed specifically for that purpose. Additionally, multiple HPMs could be aggregated and positioned in orbits and on planets, moons, and asteroids to supply fluids to orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Spectral Re-Growth Reduction for CCSDS 8-D 8-PSK TCM

This report presents a study on the CCSDS recommended 8-dimensional 8 PSK Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) scheme. The important steps of the CCSDS scheme include: conversion of serial data into parallel form, differential encoding, convolutional encoding, constellation mapping, and filtering the 8-PSK symbols using the square root raised cosine (SRRC) pulses. The last step, namely the filtering of the 8 PSK symbols using SRRC pulses, significantly affects the bandwidth of the signal. If a nonlinear power amplifier is used, the SRRC filtered signal creates spectral regrowth. The purpose of this report is to investigate a technique, called the smooth phase interpolated keying (SPIK), that can provide an alternative to SRRC filtering so that good spectral as well as power efficiencies can be obtained with the CCSDS encoder. The results of this study show that the CCSDS encoder does not affect the spectral shape of the SRRC filtered signal or the SPIK signal. When a nonlinear traveling wave tube amplifier (TWTA) is used, the spectral performance of the SRRC signal degrades significantly while the spectral performance of SPIK remains unaffected. The degrading effect of a nonlinear solid state power amplifier (SSPA) on SRRC is found to be less than that due to a nonlinear TWTA. However, in both cases, the spectral performance of the SRRC modulated signal is worse than that of the SPIK signal. The bit error rate (BER) performance of the SRRC signal in a linear amplifier environment is about 2.5 dB better than that of the SPIK signal when both the receivers use algorithms of similar complexity. In a nonlinear TWTA environment, the SRRC signal requires accurate phase tracking since the TWTA introduces additional phase distortion. This problem does not arise with SPIK signal due to its constant envelope property. When a nonlinear amplifier is used, the SRRC method loses nearly 1 dB in the bit error rate performance. The SPIK signal does not lose any performance. Thus the performance gap between SRRC and SPIK reduces. The BER performance of SPIK can be improved even further by using a more optimal receiver. A similar optimal receiver for SRRC is quite complex since the amplifier distorts the pulse shape. However, this requires further investigation and is not covered in this report.

Borah, Deva K.↗

A 100 kW-Class Technology Demonstrator for Space Solar Power

A first step in the development of solar power from space is the flight demonstration of critical technologies. These fundamental technologies include efficient solar power collection and generation, power management and distribution, and thermal management. In addition, the integration and utilization of these technologies into a viable satellite bus could provide an energy-rich platform for a portfolio of payload experiments such as wireless power transmission (WPT). This paper presents the preliminary design of a concept for a 100 kW-class free-flying platform suitable for flight demonstration of technology experiments. Recent space solar power (SSP) studies by NASA have taken a stepping stones approach that lead to the gigawatt systems necessary to cost-effectively deliver power from space. These steps start with a 100 kW-class satellite, leading to a 500 kW and then a 1 MW-class platform. Later steps develop a 100 MW bus that could eventually lead to a 1-2 GW pilot plant for SSP. Our studies have shown that a modular approach is cost effective. Modular designs include individual laser-power-beaming satellites that fly in constellations or that are autonomously assembled into larger structures at geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Microwave power-beamed approaches are also modularized into large numbers of identical units of solar arrays, power converters, or supporting structures for arrays and microwave transmitting antennas. A cost-effective approach to launching these modular units is to use existing Earth-to-orbit (ETO) launch systems, in which the modules are dropped into low Earth orbit (LEO) and then the modules perform their own orbit transfer to GEO using expendable solar arrays to power solar electric thrusters. At GEO, the modules either rendezvous and are assembled robotically into larger platforms, or are deployed into constellations of identical laser power-beaming satellites. Since solar electric propulsion by the modules is cost-effective for both self-transport of the modules from LEO to GEO, and for on-orbit stationkeeping and repositioning capability during the satellite’s lifetime, this technology is also critical in technology development for SSP. The 100 kW-class technology demonstrator will utilize advanced solar power collection and generation technologies, power management and distribution, advanced thermal management, and solar electric propulsion. State-of-the-art solar concentrators, highly efficient multi-junction solar cells, integrated thermal management on the arrays, and innovative deployable structure design and packaging make the 100 kW satellite feasible for launch on one existing launch vehicle. Early SSP studies showed that a major percentage of the on-orbit mass for power-beaming satellites was from massive power converters at the solar arrays, at the bus, at the power transmitter, or at combinations of these locations. Higher voltage mays and power management and distribution (PMAD) systems reduce or eliminate the need for many of these massive power converters, and could enable direct-drive of high-voltage solar electric thrusters. Lightweight, highly efficient thermal management systems are a critical technology that must be developed and flown for SSP feasibility. Large amounts of power on satellites imply that large amounts of waste heat will need to be managed. In addition, several of the more innovative lightweight configurations proposed for SSP satellites take advantage of solar concentrators that are intractable without advanced thermal management technologies for the solar arrays. These thermal management systems include efficient interfaces with the WPT systems or other high-power technology experiments, lightweight deployable radiators that can be easily integrated into satellite buses, and efficient reliable thermal distribution systems that can pipe heat from the technology experiments to the radiators. In addition to demonstrating the integration and use of these mission-critical technologies, the 100 kw-class satellite will provide a large experiment deck for a portfolio of technology experiments. Current plans for this technology demonstrator allow 2000 kg of payload capability and up to 100 kW of power. The technology experiments could include one or more wireless power transmission demonstrations, either to the Earth’s surface or to a suitable space-based receiver. Technology experiments to quantify the on-orbit performance of critical technologies for SSP or space exploration are welcomed. In addition, the technology experiments provide an opportunity for international cooperation, to advance technology readiness levels of SSP technologies that require flight demonstration. This paper will present the preliminary design for a 100 kW solar-powered satellite and a variety of technology experiments that may be suitable for flight demonstration. In addition, a space-to-Earth-surface WPT experiment will be discussed.

Connie Carrington↗

Increased efficiency of mammalian somatic cell hybrid production under microgravity conditions during ballistic rocket flight

The electrofusion of hybridoma cell lines under short-duration microgravity during a flight of the TEXUS 18 Black Brand ballistic sounding rocket at Kiruna, Sweden is reported. The fusion partners, growth medium, cell fusion medium, cell fusion, cell viability in the fusion medium, and postfusion cell culture are described, and the rocket, cell fusion chamber, apparatus, and module are examined. The experimental timeline, the effects of fusion medium and incubation time on cell viability and hybrid yields, and the effect of microgravity on hybrid yields are considered.

Schnettler, R.↗

MSAT voice modulation considerations

The challenge for Mobile satellite (MSAT) voice services is to provide near toll quality voice to the user, while minimizing the power and bandwidth resources of the satellite. The options for MSAT voice can be put into one of two groups: Analog and Digital. Analog, nominally narrowband single sideband techniques, have a shown robustness to the fading and shadowing environment. Digital techniques, a combination of low rate vocoders and bandwidth efficient modems, show the promise of enhanced fidelity, as well as easier networking to the emerging digital world. The problems and tradeoffs to designers are many, especially in the digital case. Processor speed vs. cost and MET power requirements, channel coding, bandwidth efficiency vs. power efficiency etc. While the list looks daunting, in fact an acceptable solution is well within the technology. The objectives are reviewed that the MSAT voice service must meet, along with the options that are seen for the future.

Bossler, Dan↗

Heat and electricity from the Sun using parabolic dish collector systems

Point focus distributed receiver solar thermal technology for the production of electric power and of industrial process heat is addressed. The thermal power systems project which emphasizes the development of cost effective systems which will accelerate the commercialization and industrialization of plants up to 10 MWe, using parabolic dish collectors is described. The projected size of the isolated load market in the 1990-2000 time period is 300 to 1000 MW/year. Although this market is small in comparison to the grid connected utility market, it is indicated that by assuming only a 20 percent market penetration, up to 10,000 power modules per year would be required to meet this need. At a production rate of 25,000 units/year and assuming no energy storage, levelized bus bar energy costs of 75 mills/kWeh are projected. These numbers are based on what is believed to be a conservative estimate regarding engine-generator conversion efficiency (40 percent) for the 1990 time period. With a more optimistic estimate of efficiency (i.e., 45 percent), the bus bar cost decreases to about 67 mills/kWeh. At very large production rates (400,000 modules/years), the costs decrease to 58 mills/kWeh. Finally, the present status of the technology development effort is discussed.

Truscello, V. C.↗