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DOE OSTI2022

Uranium Retardation Capacity of Lithologies from the Negev Desert, Israel—Rock Characterization and Sorption Experiments

A series of batch experiments were performed to assess the uranium sorption capacity of four mineralogically distinct lithologies from the Negev Desert, Israel, to evaluate the suitability of a potential site for subsurface radioactive waste disposal. The rock specimens consisted of an organic-rich phosphorite, a bituminous marl, a chalk, and a sandstone. The sorption data for each lithology were fitted using a general composite surface complexation model (GC SCM) implemented in PHREEQC. Sorption data were also fitted by a non-mechanistic Langmuir sorption isotherm, which can be used as an alternative to the GC SCM to provide a more computationally efficient method for uranium sorption. This is because all the rocks tested have high pH/alkalinity/calcium buffering capacities that restrict groundwater chemistry variations, so that the use of a GC SCM is not advantageous. The mineralogy of the rocks points to several dominant sorption phases for uranyl (UO 2 2+ ), including apatite, organic carbon, clays, and iron-bearing phases. The surface complexation parameters based on literature values for the minerals identified overestimate the uranium sorption capacities, so that for our application, an empirical approach that makes direct use of the experimental data to estimate mineral-specific sorption parameters appears to be more practical for predicting uranium sorption.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

DELVE-ing into the Jet: A Thin Stellar Stream on a Retrograde Orbit at 30 kpc

We perform a detailed photometric and astrometric analysis of stars in the Jet stream using data from the first data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey DR1 and Gaia EDR3. We discover that the stream extends over ∼ 29° on the sky (increasing the known length by 18°), which is comparable to the kinematically cold Phoenix, ATLAS, and GD-1 streams. Using blue horizontal branch stars, we resolve a distance gradient along the Jet stream of 0.2 kpc deg$^{−1}$, with distances ranging from D $_{⊙}$ ∼ 27–34 kpc. We use natural splines to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and intensity to quantitatively characterize density variations in the Jet stream, including a large gap, and identify substructure off the main track of the stream. Furthermore, we report the first measurement of the proper motion of the Jet stream and find that it is well aligned with the stream track, suggesting the stream has likely not been significantly perturbed perpendicular to the line of sight. Finally, we fit the stream with a dynamical model and find that it is on a retrograde orbit, and is well fit by a gravitational potential including the Milky Way and Large Magellanic Cloud. These results indicate the Jet stream is an excellent candidate for future studies with deeper photometry, astrometry, and spectroscopy to study the potential of the Milky Way and probe perturbations from baryonic and dark matter substructure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.

Yuan, Jiacan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physically motivated analytical expression for the temperature dependence of the zero-field splitting of the nitrogen-vacancy center in diamond

The temperature dependence of the zero-field splitting (ZFS) between the | $m_s$ = 0 $\rangle$ and | $m_s$ = ±1 $\rangle$ levels of the nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center's electronic ground-state spin triplet can be used as a robust nanoscale thermometer in a broad range of environments. However, despite numerous measurements of this dependence in different temperature ranges, to our knowledge no analytical expression has been put forward that captures the scaling of the ZFS of the NV center across all relevant temperatures. Here we present a simple, analytical, and physically motivated expression for the temperature dependence of the NV center's ZFS that matches all experimental observations, in which the ZFS shifts in proportion to the occupation numbers of two representative phonon modes. In contrast to prior models our expression does not diverge outside the regions of fitting. In conclusion, we show that our model quantitatively matches experimental measurements of the ZFS from 15 to 500 K in single NV centers in ultrapure bulk diamond, and we compare our model and measurements to prior models and experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uniform modelling of the stellar density of thirteen tidal streams within the Galactic halo

ABSTRACT We present the results of fitting a flexible stellar stream density model to a collection of thirteen streams around the Milky Way, using photometric data from DES, DECaLS, and Pan-STARRS. We construct density maps for each stream and characterize their tracks on the sky, width, and distance modulus curves along the length of each stream. We use these measurements to compute lengths and total luminosities of streams and identify substructures. Several streams show prominent substructures, such as stream broadening, gaps, large deviations of stream tracks, and sharp changes in stream densities. Examining the group of streams as a population, as expected we find that streams with globular cluster progenitors are typically narrower than those with dwarf galaxy progenitors, with streams around 100 pc wide showing overlap between the two populations. We also note the average luminosity of globular cluster streams is significantly lower than the typical luminosity of intact globular clusters. The likely explanation is that observed globular cluster streams preferentially come from lower luminosity and lower density clusters. The stream measurements done in a uniform manner presented here will be helpful for more detailed stream studies such as identifying candidate stream members for spectroscopic follow up and stellar stream dynamical modelling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Q 10 of in situ microbial soil respiration varies with mean annual temperature, precipitation, pH, and plant cover: a meta-analysis and spatial prediction of Q 10

The temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration, commonly quantified using the Q 10 coefficient, is a key parameter in carbon cycle models. Uncovering how environmental factors affect in situ Q 10 values can therefore provide critical insight into potential shifts in global carbon stocks under climate change. We collected data from previously published field experiments that measured soil microbial respiration across a range of temperatures. We hypothesized that the Q 10 coefficient of in situ soil microbial respiration would vary based on environmental factors including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant cover type, pH, soil C:N, and latitude. Linear regression revealed that Q 10 correlates negatively with MAT and MAP and positively with pH and absolute latitude. Additionally, average Q 10 varied significantly across different plant cover types; it was highest in mountain grasslands and lowest in tropical moist forests. Variation in microbial Q 10 across environmental factors may arise from underlying mechanisms such as enzyme kinetics, substrate availability and complexity, and microbial adaptation. To capture patterns in Q 10 more comprehensively, we developed a multiple linear regression model of Q 10 based on the most individually significant environmental drivers and applied it to public datasets to generate a global map of predicted Q 10 . Q 10 was higher in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where large permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to thawing and decomposition. We also compared fits between the Q 10 equation and a model produced from macromolecular rate theory (MMRT). We found that the MMRT model had the superior fit and may be better suited to model temperature sensitivity of complex biological reactions. Overall, our results emphasize that relationships between microbial Q 10 and environmental variables should be accounted for in climate models. Incorporating these variations in the Q 10 parameter, rather than using a fixed value, will help predict whether CO 2 emissions will be buffered or exacerbated by soil microbial respiration under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evidence for Higgs boson decays to a low-mass dilepton system and a photon in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the Higgs boson decaying into a photon and a pair of electrons or muons with an invariant mass mℓℓ < 30 GeV is presented. The analysis is performed using 139 fb -1 of proton–proton collision data, produced by the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and collected by the ATLAS experiment. Evidence for the H → ℓℓγ process is found with a significance of 3.2 over the background-only hypothesis, compared to an expected significance of 2.1 for the Standard Model prediction. The best-fit value of the signal-strength parameter, defined as the ratio of the observed signal yield to the one expected in the Standard Model, is μ=1.5±0.5. The Higgs boson production cross-section times the H → ℓℓγ branching ratio for mℓℓ < 30 GeV is determined to be $8.7_{-2.7}^{+2.8}$ fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Bayesian Thermonuclear Rate for the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Reaction

Big Bang nucleosynthesis provides the earliest probe of standard model physics, at a time when the universe was less than 1000 seconds old. It determines the abundances of the lightest nuclides, which give rise to the subsequent history of the visible matter in the universe. This work derives new 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear reaction rates based on all available experimental information. This reaction sensitively impacts the primordial abundances of 7 Be and 7 Li during big bang nucleosynthesis. We critically evaluate all available data and disregard experimental results that are questionable. For the nuclear model, we adopt an incoherent sum of single-level, two-channel, R -matrix approximation expressions, which are implemented into a hierarchical Bayesian model, to analyze the remaining six data sets we deem most reliable. In the fitting of the data, we consistently model all known sources of uncertainty, including discrepant absolute normalizations of different data sets, and also take the variation of the neutron and proton channel radii into account, hence providing less biased estimates of the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates. From the resulting posteriors, we extract R -matrix parameters ($E_r, γ^2_n, γ^2_p$) and derive excitation energies and partial and total widths. Our fit is sensitive to the contributions of the first three levels above the neutron threshold. Reaction rates were computed by integrating 10,000 samples of the reduced cross section. Our 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li thermonuclear rates have uncertainties between 1.5% and 2.0% at temperatures of ≤1 GK. Finally, we compare our rates to previous results and find that the 7 Be(n,p) 7 Li rates most commonly used in big bang simulations have uncertainties that are too optimistic.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The local hole: a galaxy underdensity covering 90 per cent of sky to ≈200 Mpc

We investigate the ‘Local Hole’, an anomalous underdensity in the local galaxy environment, by extending our previous galaxy K-band number-redshift and number-magnitude counts to ≈90 per cent of the sky. Our redshift samples are taken from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) and the 2M++ catalogues, limited to K < 11.5. We find that both surveys are in good agreement, showing an ≈21–22 per cent underdensity at z < 0.075 when compared to our homogeneous counts model that assumes the same luminosity function (LF) and other parameters as in our earlier papers. Using the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) for n(K) galaxy counts, we measure an underdensity relative to this model of 20±2 per cent at K < 11.5, which is consistent in both form and scale with the observed n(z) underdensity. To examine further the accuracy of the counts model, we compare its prediction for the fainter n(K) counts of the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. We further compare these data with a model assuming the parameters of a previous study where little evidence for the Local Hole was found. At 13 < K < 16, we find a significantly better fit for our galaxy counts model, arguing for our higher LF normalization. Although our implied underdensity of ≈20 per cent means local measurements of the Hubble Constant have been overestimated by ≈3 per cent, such a scale of underdensity is in tension with a global ΛCDM cosmology at an ≈3σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Model-Data for Joint Estimation of Biogeochemical Model Parameters from Multiple Experiments: A Bayesian Approach Applied to Mercury Methylation

This modeling archive supports the manuscript submitted for publication in the Environmental Modeling and Software. This study is supported by ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Watershed. This study aims to improve calibration of complex biogeochemical models using datasets from multiple experiments targeting specific subprocesses. The proposed Bayesian joint-fitting scheme calibrates the entire biogeochemical model in one go using all the available datasets and estimate parameter uncertainties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows for complete propagation of uncertainties and utilization of the information shared between different datasets. Mapping joint distribution of parameters guides model improvement by identifying null spaces in the parameter space. This archive contains files used to perform MCMC, post-process outputs and visualize results.

East Fork Poplar Creek↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wave-by-Wave Forecasting via Assimilation of Marine Radar Data

Abstract This work describes a phase-resolving wave-forecasting algorithm that is based on the assimilation of marine radar image time series. The algorithm is tested against synthetic data and field observations. The algorithm couples X-band marine radar observations with a phase-resolving wave model that uses the linear mild slope equations for reconstruction of water surface elevations over a large domain of O (km) and a prescribed time window of O (min). The reconstruction also enables wave-by-wave forecasting through forward propagation in space and time. Marine radar image time series provide the input wave observations through a previously given relationship between backscatter intensity and the radial component of the sea surface slope. The algorithm assimilates the wave slope information into the model via a best-fit wave source function at the boundary that minimizes the slope reconstruction error over an annular region at the outer ranges of the radar images. The wave model is then able to propagate the waves across a polar domain to a location of interest at nearer ranges. The constraints on the method for achieving real-time forecasting are identified, and the algorithm is verified against synthetic data and tested using field observations.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Hubble PanCET Program: Transit and Eclipse Spectroscopy of the Strongly Irradiated Giant Exoplanet WASP-76b

Ultra-hot Jupiters with equilibrium temperatures greater than 2000 K are uniquely interesting targets as they provide us crucial insights into how atmospheres behave under extreme conditions. This class of giant planets receives intense radiation from their host star and usually has strongly irradiated and highly inflated atmospheres. At such a high temperature, cloud formation is expected to be suppressed and thermal dissociation of water vapor could occur. We observed the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b with seven transits and five eclipses using the Hubble Space Telescope and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) for a comprehensive study of its atmospheric chemical and physical processes. We detected TiO and H{sub 2}O absorption in the optical and near-infrared transit spectrum. Additional absorption by a number of neutral and ionized heavy metals like Fe, Ni, Ti, and SiO help explain the short-wavelength transit spectrum. The secondary eclipse spectrum shows muted water feature but a strong CO emission feature in Spitzer’s 4.5 μm band indicating an inverted temperature pressure profile. We analyzed both the transit and eclipse spectra with a combination of self-consistent PHOENIX models and atmospheric retrieval. Both spectra were well fitted by the self-consistent PHOENIX forward atmosphere model in chemical and radiative equilibrium at solar metallicity, adding to the growing evidence that both TiO/VO and NUV heavy metals opacity are prominent NUV-optical opacity sources in the stratospheres of ultra-hot Jupiters.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmology From CMB Lensing and Delensed EE Power Spectra Using 2019-2020 SPT-3G Polarization Data

From CMB polarization data alone we reconstruct the CMB lensing power spectrum, comparable in overall constraining power to previous temperature-based reconstructions, and an unlensed E -mode power spectrum, with clear detections of the third through tenth acoustic peaks. The observations, taken in 2019 and 2020 with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the SPT-3G camera, cover 1500 deg 2 at 95, 150, and 220 GHz with arcminute resolution and roughly 4.9 µ K-arcmin coadded noise in polarization. The power spectrum estimates, together with systematic parameter estimates and a joint covariance matrix, follow from a Bayesian analysis using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method. The E -mode spectrum at ℓ > 2000 and lensing spectrum at L > 350 are the most precise to date. Assuming the ΛCDM model, and using only these SPT data and priors on τ and absolute calibration from Planck, we find H 0 = 66.81 ± 0.81 km/s/Mpc, comparable in precision to the Planck determination and in 5.4 σ tension with the most precise H 0 inference derived via the distance ladder. We also find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.850 ± 0.017, providing further independent evidence of a slight tension with low-redshift structure probes. The ΛCDM model provides a good simultaneous fit to the combined Planck, ACT, and SPT data, and thus passes a powerful test. Combining these CMB datasets with BAO observations, we explore extensions to the ΛCDM model. We find that the effective number of neutrino species, spatial curvature, and primordial helium fraction are consistent with standard model values, and that the 95% confidence upper limit on the neutrino mass sum is 0.075 eV, close to the minimum sum expected from observations of solar and atmospheric neutrino oscillations. The SPT data are consistent with the somewhat weak (< 3 σ ) preference for excess lensing power seen in Planck and ACT data relative to predictions of the ΛCDM model given the combined Planck, ACT, and BAO data sets. Finally, we also detect at greater than 3 σ the influence of non-linear evolution in the CMB lensing power spectrum and discuss it in the context of the S 8 tension. Forthcoming SPT-3G analyses will feature deeper and wider observations in temperature and polarization, providing even tighter constraints and more powerful tests of the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The effect of spiral arms on the Sérsic photometry of galaxies

The Sérsic profile is a widely used model for describing the surface brightness distribution of galaxies. Spiral galaxies, however, are qualitatively different from a Sérsic model. Aims. The goal of this study is to assess how accurately the total flux and half-light radius of a galaxy with spiral arms can be recovered when fitted with a Sérsic profile. Methods. I selected a sample of bulge-dominated galaxies with spiral arms. Using photometric data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey, I estimated the contribution of the spiral arms to their total flux. Then I generated simulated images of galaxies with similar characteristics, fitted them with a Sérsic model, and quantified the error on the determination of the total flux and half-light radius. Results. Spiral arms can introduce biases on the photometry of galaxies in a way that depends on the underlying smooth surface brightness profile, the location of the arms, and the depth of the photometric data. A set of spiral arms accounting for 10% of the flux of a bulge-dominated galaxy typically causes the total flux and the half-light radius to be overestimated by 15% and 30%, respectively. This bias, however, is much smaller if the galaxy is disk-dominated. Conclusions. Galaxies with a prominent bulge and a non-zero contribution from spiral arms are the most susceptible to biases in the total flux and half-light radius when fitted with a Sérsic profile. If photometric measurements with high accuracy are required, then measurements over finite apertures are to be preferred over global estimates of the flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Precipitation Parameters on the Specific Surface Area of PuO 2

Controlling the properties of PuO 2 through processing is of vital importance to environmental transport and fate, production of nuclear fuels, nuclear forensic analyses, stockpile stewardship, and storage of nuclear wastes applications. A number of processing conditions have been identified to control final product properties, including specific surface area (SSA), residual carbon content, adsorption of volatile species, morphology, and particle size. In this paper, a novel approach is developed for the prediction of PuO 2 SSA via the synthetic route of Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation followed by calcination. The proposed model utilizes multivariate regression methodology and leave one out formalism to link Savannah River Site (SRS) precipitation and calcination production data to the SSA of the final product. A comparison among the models provides insight into the accuracy and ability to identify variations amongst the processing data. Additionally, the models may also be used to fit new data outside of the parameters explored in a production facility. Finally, the trained model was compared to a similarly trained conventional model form to illustrate the influence of precipitation parameters on the prediction of the final SSA. The models presented here attempt to provide new methods for more accurate prediction of the PuO 2 product properties in a production scale environment for key environmental and nuclear applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗