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Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in General Circulation Models (GCM'S). The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of Fluids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub s). and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub s) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the GFDL ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derived using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) code relaxing the assumptive K(sub s) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R rho (= Beta delta S/delta z/alpha delta T/delta z) in such a way that K(sub s) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in GCM'S. The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of FLuids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusivities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub g) and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub g) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derided using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same GFDL code relaxing the assumptive K(sub g) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R Rho (= Beta Sigma S/Sigma z/Alpha Sigma T/Sigma z) in such a way that K(sub g) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, Vittorio↗

A Novel Method for Characterization of Superconductors: Physical Measurements and Modeling of Thin Films

A method for characterization of granular superconducting thin films has been developed which encompasses both the morphological state of the sample and its fabrication process parameters. The broad scope of this technique is due to the synergism between experimental measurements and their interpretation using numerical simulation. Two novel technologies form the substance of this system: the magnetically modulated resistance method for characterizing superconductors; and a powerful new computer peripheral, the Parallel Information Processor card, which provides enhanced computing capability for PC computers. This enhancement allows PC computers to operate at speeds approaching that of supercomputers. This makes atomic scale simulations possible on low cost machines. The present development of this system involves the integration of these two technologies using mesoscale simulations of thin film growth. A future stage of development will incorporate atomic scale modeling.

Kim, B. F.↗

Characteristics of Precipitation and Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Peruvian Central Andes in Multi 5‐Year Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with two planetary boundary layer schemes, ACM2 and MYNN, convection‐permitting model (CPM) regional climate simulations were conducted for a 6‐year period, including a one‐year spin‐up period, at a 15‐km grid spacing covering entire South America and a nested convection‐permitting 3‐km grid spacing covering the Peruvian central Andes region. These two CPM simulations along with a 4‐km simulation covering South America produced by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), three gridded precipitation products, and rain gauge data in Peru and Brazil, are used to document the characteristics of precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian central Andes region. Results show that all km‐scale simulations generally capture the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and MCSs at both seasonal and diurnal scales, although biases exist in aspects such as precipitation intensity and MCS frequency, size, propagation speed, and associated precipitation intensity. The 3‐km simulation using MYNN scheme generally outperforms the other simulations in capturing seasonal and diurnal precipitation over the mountain, while both it and the 4‐km simulation demonstrate superior performance in the western Amazon Basin, based on the comparison to the gridded precipitation products and gauge data. Dynamic factors, primarily low‐level jet and terrain‐induced uplift, are the key drivers for precipitation and MCS genesis along the east slope of the Andes, while thermodynamic factors control the precipitation and MCS activity in the western Amazon Basin and over elevated mountainous regions. The study suggests model improvements and better model configurations for future regional climate projections.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A PBL-radiation model for application to regional numerical weather prediction

Often in the short-range limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) of extratropical weather systems the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes are considered secondarily important. However, it may not be the case for the regional NWP of mesoscale convective systems over the arid and semi-arid highlands of the southwestern and south-central United States in late spring and summer. Over these dry regions, the PBL can grow quite high up into the lower middle troposphere (600 mb) due to very effective solar heating and hence a vigorous air-land thermal interaction can occur. The interaction representing a major heat source for regional dynamical systems can not be ignored. A one-dimensional PBL-radiation model was developed. The model PBL consists of a constant-flux surface layer superposed with a well-mixed (Ekman) layer. The vertical eddy mixing coefficients for heat and momentum in the surface layer are determined according to the surface similarity theory, while their vertical profiles in the Ekman layer are specified with a cubic polynomial. Prognostic equations are used for predicting the height of the nonneutral PBL. The atmospheric radiation is parameterized to define the surface heat source/sink for the growth and decay of the PBL. A series of real-data numerical experiments has been carried out to obtain a physical understanding how the model performs under various atmospheric and surface conditions. This one-dimensional model will eventually be incorporated into a mesoscale prediction system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the NWP of mesoscale convective storms over land.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

Integrated Modeling of Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Land Processes at Satellite-Resolved Scales

With support from NASA's Modeling and Analysis Program, we have recently developed the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF). NU-WRF is an observation-driven integrated modeling system that represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satelliteresolved scales. "Satellite-resolved" scales (roughly 1e25 km), bridge the continuum between local (microscale), regional (mesoscale) and global (synoptic) processes. NU-WRF is a superset of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamical core model, achieved by fully integrating the GSFC Land Information System (LIS, already coupled to WRF), the WRF/ Chem enabled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) model, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (G-SDSU), and custom boundary/initial condition preprocessors into a single software release, with source code available by agreement with NASA/GSFC. Full coupling between aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes is critical for predicting local and regional water and energy cycles.

Satellite-resolved↗

A sensitivity analysis of twinning crystal plasticity finite element model using single crystal and poly crystal Zircaloy

The popularity of crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) models is increasing due to their ability to predict the mechanical response of crystalline materials such as metals and metal alloys more accurately than traditional continuum mechanics models. This is since the crystal plasticity models consider the effect of atomic structure, microstructural morphology, and properties of individual grains. These CPFEM models use a large number of material parameters in order to capture the mesoscale physics which comes with the downside of the tedious calibration process. In this paper, a CPFEM code was developed to include the twinning induced grain reorientation and subsequent crystallographic slip for HPC material. The developed code is incorporated in a large-scale, parallelized nonlinear solver WARP3D. Further, a sensitivity analysis with respect to 22 material parameters was then conducted using single crystal and polycrystal representative volume element (RVE) of Zircaloy material. Loading was applied along five different crystallographic orientations for single crystal RVE and along three directions namely, rolling (RD), transverse (TD), and normal (ND) direction for polycrystal RVE. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis were used for the calibration of material parameters for Zircaloy. Finally, developed code along with calibrated material parameters was used to investigate the effect of the hydride phase formation in Zircaloy which is a typical case observed for nuclear applications. It was found that the volume fraction of the hydride phase has a significant impact on the mechanical properties of Zircaloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling for Wind Energy Applications: Addressing the Challenges

The purpose of the US DOE's Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling (MMC) Project is to develop, verify, and validate physical models and modeling techniques that bridge the most important atmospheric scales that determine wind plant performance and reliability. The project seeks to create a new predictive numerical simulation capability that represents a range of dynamic atmospheric flow conditions impacting wind plant performance.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Cabana: A Performance Portable Library for Particle-Based Simulations

Particle-based simulations are ubiquitous throughout many fields of computational science and engineering, spanning the atomistic level with molecular dynamics (MD), to mesoscale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations for solid mechanics, device-scale modeling with PIC methods for plasma physics, and massive N-body cosmology simulations of galaxy structures, with many other methods in between (Hockney & Eastwood, 1989). While these methods use particles to represent significantly different entities with completely different physical models, many low-level details are shared including performant algorithms for short- and/or long-range particle interactions, multi-node particle communication patterns, and other data management tasks such as particle sorting and neighbor list construction. Cabana is a performance portable library for particle-based simulations, developed as part of the Co-Design Center for Particle Applications (CoPA) within the Exascale Computing Project (ECP) (Alexander et al., 2020). The CoPA project and its full development scope, including ECP partner applications, algorithm development, and similar software libraries for quantum MD, is described in (Mniszewski et al., 2021). Cabana uses the Kokkos library for on-node parallelism (Edwards et al., 2014; Trott et al., 2022), enabling simulation on multi-core CPU and GPU architectures, and MPI for GPU-aware, multi-node communication. Cabana provides particle simulation capabilities on almost all current Kokkos backends, including serial execution, OpenMP (including OpenMP-Target for GPUs), CUDA (NVIDIA GPUs), HIP (AMD GPUs), and SYCL (Intel GPUs), providing a clear path for the coming generation of accelerator-based exascale hardware. Cabana builds on Kokkos by providing new particle data structures and particle algorithms resulting in a similar execution policy-based, node-level programming model that is intended to be used in addition to the core Kokkos library within an application. Cabana is designed as an application and physics agnostic, but particle-specific toolkit which can either be used to generate a new application, or to be used as needed in existing applications at various levels of invasiveness including through interfaces that wrap user memory in existing data structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SULI Intern Final Report: Computationally Investigating Hydrogen Thermo-Diffusion in Yttrium Hydride Using Multiscale Methods

The renaissance of nuclear energy has arrived, heralding an age of abundant inexpensive clean energy, and renewed space exploration. In nuclear-powered spacecraft and microreactors, safety and size are of utmost importance. Yttrium Hydride (YHx) is being researched for its utility as a neutron moderator in nuclear reactors; the hydrogen in YHx slows down neutrons, enabling a continuous nuclear reaction in the reactor. This has the benefit of allowing reactors to be more safe, compact, and efficient. The goal of this effort is to computationally predict the coefficient of temperature-dependent hydrogen diffusion within YHx, the Soret coefficient. This parameter is essential for determining the safe operating modes of YHx moderators. Zirconium Hydride (ZrHx) is used in the Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics (TRIGA) reactor, is the reference material for these calculations. In this work, nanoscale atomic modeling in the Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) is combined with the mesoscale finite element phase-field module in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE); this culminates in a new multiscale computational method to simulate Soret diffusion of hydrogen in YHx. This data is useful for predicting experimental outcomes. This workflow involves convergence testing followed by static, Nudged Elastic Band (NEB), Quasi-Harmonic Approximation (QHA), and Molecular Dynamics (MD) calculations - linked with phase field simulation. NEB simulates hydrogen migration, while QHA and MD predict temperature-dependent properties. The static calculations align with literature, and preliminary NEB and QHA calculations yield accurate results. Once the atomic calculations are complete, we will incorporate Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) images and VASP-generated parameters into the phase field module to simulate intra- and intergranular transport of hydrogen in ZrHx and YHx. Future research will extend our approach to fuel-moderator materials systems such as Uranium-Yttrium Hydride (U-YHx). This work contributes to the development of advanced nuclear energy solutions for space travel.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of vegetation effects on the generation and modification of mesoscale circulations

The effects of the presence of vegetation cover on modifying sea breeze and thermally induced upslope flows during daytime were investigated, and the possibility of the generation of mesoscale circulations due to nonuniform vegetation cover was evaluated. Scale analysis and numerical model simulations were used to provide quantitative evaluations of the circulations involved in the two vagetation effects, using several illustrative cases. The cases considered demonstrate that the impact of vegetated surfaces is highly dependent on the environmental conditions as well as vegetation characteristics.

Segal, M.↗

Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends

Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean (SO), especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy‐resolving ocean‐sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the SO response to a step‐change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two timescale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal timescales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: we find Ekman‐driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing‐driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling‐driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long‐term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long‐term, upwelling‐driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind‐driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long‐term warming.

Southern Annular Mode↗

Observing Fast Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes with a Geostationary Microwave Sounder

A geostationary microwave sounder, GeoSTAR, capable of providing continuous monitoring every 15 minutes of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation, and wind in the presence of clouds and precipitation, which will add tremendously to our ability to observe rapidly evolving dynamic atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and severe storms, monsoonal moisture flow, and atmospheric rivers, has been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. GeoSTAR uses aperture synthesis to overcome the difficulty of attaining adequate spatial resolution from geostationary orbit. It is made possible with new technology that has now been developed and fully tested. Low-risk mission development can start as soon as funding becomes available. The sensor can be hosted on a commercial communications satellite, which could reduce the cost substantially. Plans have been developed at JPL for such a mission, called “GeoStorm”, focused on observing severe convective storms – tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and extratropical cyclones – with a goal of improving our understanding, modeling and prediction of these destructive phenomena. It can equally well be configured as an operational mission, where the goal is to collect data for immediate assimilation into regional forecast systems, provide “now-casting” as the storms unfold, and support post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. With key observables including vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor, wind and precipitation over a wide area, many focused applications are possible, particularly pertaining to aviation, transportation and marine operations, in both the civilian and defense domains.

Lambrigsten, Bjorn↗

A four-dimensional primitive equation model for coupled coastal-deep ocean studies

A prototype four dimensional continental shelf/deep ocean model is described. In its present form, the model incorporates the effects of finite amplitude topography, advective nonlinearities, and variable stratification and rotation. The model can be forced either directly by imposed atmospheric windstress and surface pressure distributions, and energetic mean currents imposed by the exterior oceanic circulation; or indirectly by initial distributions of shoreward propagation mesoscale waves and eddies. To avoid concerns over the appropriate specification of 'open' boundary conditions on the cross-shelf and seaward model boundaries, a periodic channel geometry (oriented along-coast) is used. The model employs a traditional finite difference expansion in the cross-shelf direction, and a Fourier (periodic) representation in the long-shelf coordinate.

Haidvogel, D. B.↗

Accuracy Assessment of Global Internal-Tide Models Using Satellite Altimetry Models Using Satellite Altimetry

Altimeter measurements are corrected for several geophysical parameters in order to access ocean signals of interest, like mesoscale or sub-mesoscale variability. The ocean tide is one of the most critical corrections due to the amplitude of the tidal elevations and to the aliasing phenomena of high-frequency signals into the lower-frequency band, but the internal-tide signatures at the ocean surface are not yet corrected globally. Internal tides can have a signature of several centimeters at the surface with wavelengths of about 50–250 km for the first mode and even smaller scales for higher-order modes. The goals of the upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission and other high-resolution ocean measurements make the correction of these small-scale signals a challenge, as the correction of all tidal variability becomes mandatory to access accurate measurements of other oceanic signals. In this context, several scientific teams are working on the development of new internal-tide models, taking advantage of the very long altimeter time series now available, which represent an unprecedented and valuable global ocean database. The internal-tide models presented here focus on the coherent internal-tide signal and they are of three types: empirical models based upon analysis of existing altimeter missions, an assimilative model and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. A detailed comparison and validation of these internal-tide models is proposed using existing satellite altimeter databases. The analysis focuses on the four main tidal constituents: M2, K1, O1 and S2. The validation process is based on a statistical analysis of multi-mission altimetry including Jason-2 and Cryosphere Satellite-2 data. The results show a significant altimeter variance reduction when using internal-tide corrections in all ocean regions where internal tides are generating or propagating. A complementary spectral analysis also gives some estimation of the performance of each model as a function of wavelength and some insight into the residual non-stationary part of internal tides in the different regions of interest. This work led to the implementation of a new internal-tide correction (ZARON'one) in the next geophysical data records version-F (GDR-F) standards.

Loren Carrere↗