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NASA NTRS2002

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

NASA NTRS1997

Bayesian Blocks: A New Method to Analyze Photon Counting Data

A Bayesian analysis of photon-counting data leads to a new time-domain algorithm for detecting localized structures (bursts), revealing pulse shapes, and generally characterizing intensity variations. The raw counting data -- time-tag events (TTE), time-to-spill (TTS) data, or binned counts -- is converted to a maximum likelihood segmentation of the observation into time intervals during which the photon arrival rate is perceptibly constant -- i.e. has a fixed intensity without statistically significant variations. The resulting structures, Bayesian Blocks, can be thought of as bins with arbitrary spacing determined by the data. The method itself sets no lower limit to the time scale on which variability can be detected. We have applied the method to RXTE data on Cyg X-1, yielding information on this source's short-time-scale variability.

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Stability and Control Estimation Flight Test Results for the SR-71 Aircraft With Externally Mounted Experiments

A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique is used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center SR-71A airplane and for configurations that include experiments externally mounted to the top of the fuselage. This research is being done as part of the envelope clearance for the new experiment configurations. Flight data are obtained at speeds ranging from Mach 0.4 to Mach 3.0, with an extensive amount of test points at approximately Mach 1.0. Pilot-input pitch and yaw-roll doublets are used to obtain the data. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, and compares the derivatives for the three configurations tested. The experimental configurations studied generally show acceptable stability, control, trim, and handling qualities throughout the Mach regimes tested. The reduction of directional stability for the experimental configurations is the most significant aerodynamic effect measured and identified as a design constraint for future experimental configurations. This report also shows the significant effects of aircraft flexibility on the stability and control derivatives.

Moes, Timothy R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Spectral Data Reduction via Wavelet Decomposition

The greatest advantage gained from hyperspectral imagery is that narrow spectral features can be used to give more information about materials than was previously possible with broad-band multispectral imagery. For many applications, the new larger data volumes from such hyperspectral sensors, however, present a challenge for traditional processing techniques. For example, the actual identification of each ground surface pixel by its corresponding reflecting spectral signature is still one of the most difficult challenges in the exploitation of this advanced technology, because of the immense volume of data collected. Therefore, conventional classification methods require a preprocessing step of dimension reduction to conquer the so-called "curse of dimensionality." Spectral data reduction using wavelet decomposition could be useful, as it does not only reduce the data volume, but also preserves the distinctions between spectral signatures. This characteristic is related to the intrinsic property of wavelet transforms that preserves high- and low-frequency features during the signal decomposition, therefore preserving peaks and valleys found in typical spectra. When comparing to the most widespread dimension reduction technique, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and looking at the same level of compression rate, we show that Wavelet Reduction yields better classification accuracy, for hyperspectral data processed with a conventional supervised classification such as a maximum likelihood method.

Kaewpijit, S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probing the Masses of the PSR JO621+1002 Binary System Through Relativistic Apsidal Motion

Orbital, spin and astrometric parameters of the millisecond pulsar PSR J0621+1002 have been determined through six years of timing observations at three radio telescopes. The chief result is a measurement of the rate of periastron advance, omega=0 deg.0116 +/-0 deg.0008/yr. Interpreted as a general relativistic effect, this implies the sum of the pulsar mass, m(1), and the companion mass, m(2), to be M=m(1)+m(2)= 2.81 +/-0.30 solar mass. The Keplerian parameters rule out certain combinations of m(1) and m(2), as does the non-detection of Shapiro delay in the pulse arrival times. These constraints, together with the assumption that the companion is a white dwarf, lead to the maximum likelihood values m(1)=1.69((sup +0.30)(sub -0.30)) solar mass and m(2)=0.98((sup +0.32)(sub -0.12) solar mass (68% confidence). The other major finding is that the pulsar experiences dramatic variability in its dispersion measure (DM), with gradients as steep as 0.013 pc/cu cm/yr. A structure function analysis of the DM variations uncovers spatial fluctuations in the interstellar electron density that cannot be fit to a single power law, unlike the Kolmogorov turbulent spectrum that has been seen in the direction of other pulsars. Other results from the timing analysis include the first measurements of the pulsar's proper motion, mu=3.5+/-0.3 mas/yr, and of its spin-down rate, dP/dt=4.7 x 10(exp -20), which, when corrected for kinematic biases and combined with the pulse period, P=28.8 ms, gives a characteristic age of 1.1 x 10(exp 10) yr and a surface magnetic field strength of 1.2 x 10 (exp 9) G.

Spaver, Eric M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Determining the Cosmic Distance Scale from Interferometric Measurements of the Sunyaev-Zel'Dovich Effect

The distances to eighteen galaxy clusters are determined, with redshifts ranging from z approx. 0.14 to z approx. 0.78 from a maximum likelihood joint analysis of 30 GHz interferometric Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) and X-ray observations. We model the intracluster medium (ICM) using a spherical isothermal beta model. We quantify the statistical and systematic uncertainties inherent to these direct distance measurements, and we determine constraints on the Hubble parameter for three different cosmologies. These distances imply a Hubble constant of 60((sup +4+13)(sub -4-18)) km s(exp -1) megaparsec(exp -1) for an Omega(sub M) = 0.3, Omega(sub Lambda) = 0.7 cosmology, where the uncertainties correspond to statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. With a sample of eighteen clusters, systematic uncertainties clearly dominate. The systematics are observationally approachable and will be addressed in the coming years through the current generation of X-ray satellites (Chandra & XMIM-Newton) and radio observatories (OVRO (Owens Valley Radio Observatory), BIMA (Berkeley Illinois Maryland Association), & VLA (Very Large Array)). Analysis of high redshift clusters detected in future SZE and X-ray surveys will allow a determination of the geometry of the universe from SZE determined distances.

Reese, Erik D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2002

Combining Radar and Optical Data for Forest Disturbance Studies

Disturbance is an important factor in determining the carbon balance and succession of forests. Until the early 1990's researchers have focused on using optical or thermal sensors to detect and map forest disturbances from wild fires, logging or insect outbreaks. As part of a NASA Siberian mapping project, a study evaluated the capability of three different radar sensors (ERS, JERS and Radarsat) and an optical sensor (Landsat 7) to detect fire scars, logging and insect damage in the boreal forest. This paper describes the data sets and techniques used to evaluate the use of remote sensing to detect disturbance in central Siberian forests. Using images from each sensor individually and combined an assessment of the utility of using these sensors was developed. Transformed Divergence analysis and maximum likelihood classification revealed that Landsat data was the single best data type for this purpose. However, the combined use of the three radar and optical sensors did improve the results of discriminating these disturbances.

Ranson, K. Jon↗

NASA NTRS2002

Combining Radar and Optical Data for Forest Disturbance Studies

Ranson, K. Jon↗

NASA NTRS2003

Fan Beam Emission Tomography for Estimating Scalar Properties in Laminar Flames

A new method of estimating temperatures and gas species concentrations (CO2 and H2O) in a laminar flame is reported. The path-integrated, spectral radiation intensities emitted from a laminar flame at multiple wavelengths and view angles are calculated using a narrow band radiation model. Synthetic data, in the form of radial profiles of temperature and gas concentrations, are used in these calculations. The calculations mimic measurements that would theoretically be obtained using a mid-infrared spectrometer with a scanner. The path integrated spectral radiation intensities are deconvoluted using a maximum likelihood estimation method in conjunction with an iterative scheme. The deconvolution algorithm accounts for the self-absorption of radiation by the intervening gases, and provides the local temperature and gas species concentrations. The deconvoluted temperatures and gas concentrations are compared with the synthetic data used for calculating the spectral radiation intensities. The deconvoluted temperatures and gas species concentrations are within 0.5 % of the synthetic data. The deconvolution algorithm is expected to provide combustion researchers with an easy method of obtaining the radial profiles of major gas species concentrations and temperatures in laminar flames non-intrusively using a mid-infrared spectrometer with a scanner.

Lim, Jongmook↗

NASA NTRS2002

Determining the Cosmic Distance Scale from Interferometric Measurements of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

We determine the distances to 18 galaxy clusters with redshifts ranging from z approximately 0.14 to 0.78 from a maximum likelihood joint analysis of 30 GHz interferometric Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-ray observations. We model the intracluster medium (ICM) using a spherical isothermal Beta model. We quantify the statistical and systematic uncertainties inherent to these direct distance measurements, and we determine constraints on the Hubble parameter for three different cosmologies. These distances imply a Hubble constant of 60(sup+4+13)(sub-4-18)km s(exp -1)Mpc(exp -1) for an omega(sub Mu)= 0.3,omega(sub Lambda)=0.7 cosmology, where the uncertainties correspond to statistical followed by systematic at 68% confidence. With a sample of 18 clusters, systematic uncertainties clearly dominate. The systematics are observationally approachable and will be addressed in the coming years through the current generation of X-ray satellites (Chandra and XMM-Newton) and radio observatories (Owens Valley Radio Observatory, Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association, and Very Large Array). Analysis of high-redshift clusters detected in future SZE and X-ray surveys will allow a determination of the geometry of the universe from SZE-determined distances.

Reese, Erik D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Spatial Statistics of Large Astronomical Databases: An Algorithmic Approach

In this AISRP, the we have demonstrated that the correlation function i) can be calculated for MAP in minutes (about 45 minutes for Planck) on a modest 500Mhz workstation ii) the corresponding method, although theoretically suboptimal, produces nearly optimal results for realistic noise and cut sky. This trillion fold improvement in speed over the standard maximum likelihood technique opens up tremendous new possibilities, which will be persued in the follow up.

Szapudi, Istvan↗

NASA NTRS2003

Motion-Based System Identification and Fault Detection and Isolation Technologies for Thruster Controlled Spacecraft

By analyzing the motions of a thruster-controlled spacecraft, it is possible to provide on-line (1) thruster fault detection and isolation (FDI), and (2) vehicle mass- and thruster-property identification (ID). Technologies developed recently at NASA Ames have significantly improved the speed and accuracy of these ID and FDI capabilities, making them feasible for application to a broad class of spacecraft. Since these technologies use existing sensors, the improved system robustness and performance that comes with the thruster fault tolerance and system ID can be achieved through a software-only implementation. This contrasts with the added cost, mass, and hardware complexity commonly required by FDI. Originally developed in partnership with NASA - Johnson Space Center to provide thruster FDI capability for the X-38 during re-entry, these technologies are most recently being applied to the MIT SPHERES experimental spacecraft to fly on the International Space Station in 2004. The model-based FDI uses a maximum-likelihood calculation at its core, while the ID is based upon recursive least squares estimation. Flight test results from the SPHERES implementation, as flown aboard the NASA KC-1 35A 0-g simulator aircraft in November 2003 are presented.

Wilson, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2001

Low Altitude AVIRIS Data for Mapping Land Cover in Yellowstone National Park: Use of Isodata Clustering Techniques

Yellowstone National Park (YNP) contains a diversity of land cover. YNP managers need site-specific land cover maps, which may be produced more effectively using high-resolution hyperspectral imagery. ISODATA clustering techniques have aided operational multispectral image classification and may benefit certain hyperspectral data applications if optimally applied. In response, a study was performed for an area in northeast YNP using 11 select bands of low-altitude AVIRIS data calibrated to ground reflectance. These data were subjected to ISODATA clustering and Maximum Likelihood Classification techniques to produce a moderately detailed land cover map. The latter has good apparent overall agreement with field surveys and aerial photo interpretation.

Spruce, Joe↗

NASA NTRS2003

A statistical model of diurnal variation in human growth hormone

The diurnal pattern of growth hormone (GH) serum levels depends on the frequency and amplitude of GH secretory events, the kinetics of GH infusion into and clearance from the circulation, and the feedback of GH on its secretion. We present a two-dimensional linear differential equation model based on these physiological principles to describe GH diurnal patterns. The model characterizes the onset times of the secretory events, the secretory event amplitudes, as well as the infusion, clearance, and feedback half-lives of GH. We illustrate the model by using maximum likelihood methods to fit it to GH measurements collected in 12 normal, healthy women during 8 h of scheduled sleep and a 16-h circadian constant-routine protocol. We assess the importance of the model components by using parameter standard error estimates and Akaike's Information Criterion. During sleep, both the median infusion and clearance half-life estimates were 13.8 min, and the median number of secretory events was 2. During the constant routine, the median infusion half-life estimate was 12.6 min, the median clearance half-life estimate was 11.7 min, and the median number of secretory events was 5. The infusion and clearance half-life estimates and the number of secretory events are consistent with current published reports. Our model gave an excellent fit to each GH data series. Our analysis paradigm suggests an approach to decomposing GH diurnal patterns that can be used to characterize the physiological properties of this hormone under normal and pathological conditions.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS2000

A statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm

We formulate a statistical model of the human core-temperature circadian rhythm in which the circadian signal is modeled as a van der Pol oscillator, the thermoregulatory response is represented as a first-order autoregressive process, and the evoked effect of activity is modeled with a function specific for each circadian protocol. The new model directly links differential equation-based simulation models and harmonic regression analysis methods and permits statistical analysis of both static and dynamical properties of the circadian pacemaker from experimental data. We estimate the model parameters by using numerically efficient maximum likelihood algorithms and analyze human core-temperature data from forced desynchrony, free-run, and constant-routine protocols. By representing explicitly the dynamical effects of ambient light input to the human circadian pacemaker, the new model can estimate with high precision the correct intrinsic period of this oscillator ( approximately 24 h) from both free-run and forced desynchrony studies. Although the van der Pol model approximates well the dynamical features of the circadian pacemaker, the optimal dynamical model of the human biological clock may have a harmonic structure different from that of the van der Pol oscillator.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS2004

On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗