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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Development of A High-Resolution Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Studies

High-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for characterizing the variability of solar energy resources and for informing strategies that ensure grid reliability and resilience in grid systems with high levels of solar energy integration. We present the development of a new 4-km, hourly Earth system dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS), using a statistical downscaling approach that integrates the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with regional Earth system model projections. The new high-resolution Earth system dataset includes key variables - GHI, DNI, DHI, surface air temperature, and wind speed - under two future scenarios. Preliminary results show a reasonable agreement with NSRDB observations, with nBias less than 1% for GHI across CONUS. The dataset is expected to support in-depth analyses of extreme weather impacts and provide input to resource adequacy for future energy systems with diverse generation sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-TIme (DROMS-RT)

To design and demonstrate DROMS-RT, a highly distributed Demand Response Optimization and Management System for Real-Time (DROMS-RT) power flow control to support large scale integration of distributed renewable generation into the grid. AutoGrid developed a novel control and communications platform to allow highly dispatchable demand response (DR) services in time frames suitable for providing ancillary services to the transmission grid. These services will be substantially less expensive and more efficient than other forms of ancillary services options currently available to manage the intermittency associated with large-scale renewable integration. DROMSRT successfully leveraged Automated Demand Response (ADR) by fundamentally re-thinking the architecture of the DR platform from the ground up and by developing innovative new technologies in a number of areas related to DR. DROMS-RT leveraged the low-cost, open, interoperable DR signaling technology, OpenADR, and low-cost, internet-protocol based telemetry solutions to reduce the cost of hardware. This allowed DROMS-RT to provide dynamic price signals to millions of OpenADR clients. Statistically rigorous signal processing techniques were developed to reliably detect even small load reductions in the presence of noisy baseline profiles. Novel forecasting engines based on modern online machine learning algorithms enabled accurate individualized forecasts for customer loads in the presence of dynamic pricing signals, and a real-time decision engines enabled continuous optimization and optimal dispatch of DR resources across a large portfolio of heterogeneous loads that respond at varying time-scales. Moreover, the real-time optimization conducted by the decision engine can utilize grid physics to maximize load reduction at the transmission system in addition to the distribution sites, for more efficient grid operation. Finally, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) availability of the DROMS-RT platform has reduced the cost of deployment and enable participation of small commercial and residential customers in DR who otherwise would not be able to do so.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Verification and Validation of the STAT7 Code

This document presents the verification and validation of the STAT7 Version 1.0 code which has been developed to perform the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculation of the MIT Research Reactor required upon conversion of the reactor from high enrichment uranium fuel to low enrichment uranium fuel. The key capabilites of the code including the statistical processing, water property generation, and thermal hydraulic solution are verified independently. While the first two capabilites are checked using statistical tests and NIST data tables, each component of the thermal hydraulic solution is verified using simple geometry test problems. The comparison between results obtained by the code and hand calculations on these problems shows that each of these components work correctly. Additionally, a comprehensive comparison between STAT7 Version 1.0 and PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.2 calculations for a five-channel test problem is performed for the validation. The good agreement between the obtained results for all thermal hydraulic parameters belonging to the fuel core region is achieved. An issue in bypass flowrate calculation was detected when both fin-friction and bypass flow claculations are involved. This problem can be corrected in a later version of the code, however, does not affect the application of STAT7 code as it has been used to date where the flow distribution in the core region and bypass channel is specified as an input parameter.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Deterministic Calibration of MFiX-PIC, Part 1: Settling Bed

The Particle-in-cell (PIC) numerical approach for modeling granular solids in fluid flow has gained significant interest in recent years. Valued for its often shorter time-to-solution, the PIC formulation relies on modeling statistical groupings of particles called parcels in cooperation with a solids stress model to affect local solids velocity. This is in contrast to the discrete element model (DEM) where every particle in a system is modelled individually and directly coupled to local solids velocity through Newtonian mechanics. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) develops and maintains Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX), a collection of open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers. Included in the MFiX suite are traditional two-fluid model (TFM) and DEM solvers, and a recently added PIC solver (NETL, 2021). In general, PIC methodologies offer an accuracy trade-off in lieu of computational speed; and therefore, it is important to assess the credibility of MFiX-PIC simulations. For this purpose, a systematic verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) effort was initiated at NETL to assess the new PIC solver

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating MPI resource usage summary statistics

The Message Passing Interface (MPI) remains the dominant programming model for scientific applications running on today’s high-performance computing (HPC) systems. This dominance stems from MPI’s powerful semantics for inter-process communication that has enabled scientists to write applications for simulating important physical phenomena. MPI does not, however, specify how messages and synchronization should be carried out. Those details are typically dependent on low-level architecture details and the message characteristics of the application. Therefore, analyzing an application’s MPI resource usage is critical to tuning MPI’s performance on a particular platform. The result of this analysis is typically a discussion of the mean message sizes, queue search lengths and message arrival times for a workload or set of workloads. While a discussion of the arithmetic mean in MPI resource usage might be the most intuitive summary statistic, it is not always the most accurate in terms of representing the underlying data. In this paper, we analyze MPI resource usage for a number of key MPI workloads using an existing MPI trace collector and discrete-event simulator. Our analysis demonstrates that the average, while easy and efficient to calculate, is a useful metric for characterizing latency and bandwidth measurements, but may not be a good representation of application message sizes, match list search depths, or MPI inter-operation times. Additionally, we show that the median and mode are superior choices in many cases. We also observe that the arithmetic mean is not the best representation of central tendency for data that are drawn from distributions that are multi-modal or have heavy tails. Furthermore, the results and analysis of our work provide valuable guidance on how we, as a community, should discuss and analyze MPI resource usage data for scientific applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SBbadger: biochemical reaction networks with definable degree distributions

Abstract Motivation An essential step in developing computational tools for the inference, optimization and simulation of biochemical reaction networks is gauging tool performance against earlier efforts using an appropriate set of benchmarks. General strategies for the assembly of benchmark models include collection from the literature, creation via subnetwork extraction and de novo generation. However, with respect to biochemical reaction networks, these approaches and their associated tools are either poorly suited to generate models that reflect the wide range of properties found in natural biochemical networks or to do so in numbers that enable rigorous statistical analysis. Results In this work, we present SBbadger, a python-based software tool for the generation of synthetic biochemical reaction or metabolic networks with user-defined degree distributions, multiple available kinetic formalisms and a host of other definable properties. SBbadger thus enables the creation of benchmark model sets that reflect properties of biological systems and generate the kinetics and model structures typically targeted by computational analysis and inference software. Here, we detail the computational and algorithmic workflow of SBbadger, demonstrate its performance under various settings, provide sample outputs and compare it to currently available biochemical reaction network generation software. Availability and implementation SBbadger is implemented in Python and is freely available at https://github.com/sys-bio/SBbadger and via PyPI at https://pypi.org/project/SBbadger/. Documentation can be found at https://SBbadger.readthedocs.io. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ocean Wave Studies with Applications to Ocean Modeling and Improvement of Satellite Altimeter Measurements

Combining analysis of satellite data (altimeter, scatterometer, high-resolution visible and infrared images, etc.) with mathematical modeling of non-linear wave processes, we investigate various ocean wave fields (on scales from capillary to planetary), their role in ocean dynamics and turbulent transport (of heat and biogeochemical quantities), and their effects on satellite altimeter measuring accuracy. In 1998 my attention was focused on long internal gravity waves (10 to 1000 km), known also as baroclinic inertia-gravity (BIG) waves. We found these waves to be a major factor of altimeter measurements "noise," resulting in a greater uncertainty [up to 10 cm in terms of sea surface height (SSH) amplitude] in the measured SSH signal than that caused by the sea state bias variations (up to 5 cm or so). This effect still remains largely overlooked by the satellite altimeter community. Our studies of BIG waves address not only their influence on altimeter measurements but also their role in global ocean dynamics and in transport and turbulent diffusion of biogeochemical quantities. In particular, in collaboration with Prof Peter Weichman, Caltech, we developed a theory of turbulent diffusion caused by wave motions of most general nature. Applied to the problem of horizontal turbulent diffusion in the ocean, the theory yielded the effective diffusion coefficient as a function of BIG wave parameters obtainable from satellite altimeter data. This effort, begun in 1997, has been successfully completed in 1998. We also developed a theory that relates spatial fluctuations of scalar fields (such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration, drifting ice concentration, etc.) to statistical characteristics of BIG waves obtainable from altimeter measurements. A manuscript is in the final stages of preparation. In order to verify the theoretical predictions and apply them to observations, we are now analyzing Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll concentration jointly with TOPEX/POSEIDON data on SSH variations.

Glazman, Roman E.↗

End-to-end online performance data capture and analysis for scientific workflows

With the increased prevalence of employing workflows for scientific computing and a push towards exascale computing, it has become paramount that we are able to analyze characteristics of scientific applications to better understand their impact on the underlying infrastructure and vice-versa. Such analysis can help drive the design, development, and optimization of these next generation systems and solutions. Here, we present the architecture, integrated with existing well-established and newly developed tools, to collect online performance statistics of workflow executions from various, heterogeneous sources and publish them in a distributed database (Elasticsearch). Using this architecture, we are able to correlate online workflow performance data, with data from the underlying infrastructure, and present them in a useful and intuitive way via an online dashboard. We have validated our approach by executing two classes of real-world workflows, both under normal and anomalous conditions. The first is an I/O-intensive genome analysis workflow; the second, a CPU- and memory-intensive material science workflow. Based on the data collected in Elasticsearch, we are able to demonstrate that we can correctly identify anomalies that we injected. The resulting end-to-end data collection of workflow performance data is an important resource of training data for automated machine learning analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The MFiX Particle-in-Cell Method (MFiX-PIC) Theory Guide

MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges) is an open-source multiphase flow solver developed at the National Energy Technology Laboratory. Within the code, users have access to a single phase or interpenetrating continua-based multiphase two-fluid model (TFM), a discrete element model (DEM), and a particle-in-cell model (PIC). TFM, DEM, and PIC can all be used to create multiphase simulations that include hydrodynamics, chemical reactions, and heat transfer.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Beyond microbial abundance: metadata integration enhances disease prediction in human microbiome studies

Multiple studies have highlighted the interaction of the human microbiome with physiological systems such as the gut, immune, liver, and skin, via key axes. Advances in sequencing technologies and high-performance computing have enabled the analysis of large-scale metagenomic data, facilitating the use of machine learning to predict disease likelihood from microbiome profiles. However, challenges such as compositionality, high dimensionality, sparsity, and limited sample sizes have hindered the development of actionable models. One strategy to improve these models is by incorporating key metadata from both the human host and sample collection/processing protocols. This remains challenging due to sparsity and inconsistency in metadata annotation and availability. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning-based pipeline for predicting human disease states by integrating host and protocol metadata with microbiome abundance profiles from 68 different studies, processed through a consistent pipeline. Our findings indicate that metadata can enhance machine learning predictions, particularly at higher taxonomic ranks like Kingdom and Phylum, though this effect diminishes at lower ranks. Our study leverages a large collection of microbiome datasets comprising 11,208 samples, therefore enhancing the robustness and statistical confidence of our findings. This work is a critical step toward utilizing microbiome and metadata for predicting diseases such as gastrointestinal infections, diabetes, cancer, and neurological disorders.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Generic and ML Workloads in an HPC Datacenter: Node Energy, Job Failures, and Node-Job Analysis

HPC datacenters offer a backbone to the modern digital society. Increasingly, they run Machine Learning (ML) jobs next to generic, compute-intensive workloads, supporting science, business, and other decision-making processes. However, understanding how ML jobs impact the operation of HPC datacenters, relative to generic jobs, remains desirable but understudied. In this work, we leverage long-term operational data, collected from a national-scale production HPC datacenter, and statistically compare how ML and generic jobs can impact the performance, failures, resource utilization, and energy consumption of HPC datacenters. Our study provides key insights, e.g., ML-related power usage causes GPU nodes to run into temperature limitations, median/mean runtime and failure rates are higher for ML jobs than for generic jobs, both ML and generic jobs exhibit highly variable arrival processes and resource demands, significant amounts of energy are spent on unsuccessfully terminating jobs, and concurrent jobs tend to terminate in the same state. We open-source our cleaned-up data traces on Zenodo (https://doi. org/10.5281/zenodo.13685426), and provide our analysis toolkit as software hosted on GitHub (https://github.com/atlarge-research/2024-icpads-hpc-workload-characterization). This study offers multiple benefits for data center administrators, who can improve operational efficiency, and for researchers, who can further improve system designs, scheduling techniques, etc.

crossanalysis↗

An Open Benchmark of One Million High-Fidelity Cislunar Trajectories

Cislunar space spans from geosynchronous altitudes to beyond the Moon and will underpin future exploration, science, and security operations. We describe and release an open dataset of one million numerically propagated cislunar trajectories generated with the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package (SSAPy). The model includes high-degree Earth/Moon gravity, solar gravity, and Earth/Sun radiation pressure; other planetary gravities are omitted by design for computational efficiency. Initial conditions uniformly sample commonly used osculating-element ranges, and each trajectory is propagated for up to six years under a single, fixed start epoch. The dataset is intended as a reusable benchmark for method development (e.g., space domain awareness, navigation, and machine-learning pipelines), a reference library for statistical studies of orbit families, and a starting point for community-driven extensions (e.g., alternative epochs). We report empirically observed stability trends (e.g., a band near ~5 GEO and persistence of some co-orbital classes including L4/L5 librators) as dataset descriptors rather than new dynamical results. The chief contribution is the scale, fidelity, organization (CSV/HDF5 with full state time series and metadata), and open availability, which together lower the barrier to comparative and data-driven studies in the cislunar regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Trajectory Optimization via Unsupervised Probabilistic Learning On Manifolds

This report investigates the use of unsupervised probabilistic learning techniques for the analysis of hypersonic trajectories. The algorithm first extracts the intrinsic structure in the data via a diffusion map approach. Using the diffusion coordinates on the graph of training samples, the probabilistic framework augments the original data with samples that are statistically consistent with the original set. The augmented samples are then used to construct conditional statistics that are ultimately assembled in a path-planing algorithm. In this framework the controls are determined stage by stage during the flight to adapt to changing mission objectives in real-time. A 3DOF model was employed to generate optimal hypersonic trajectories that comprise the training datasets. The diffusion map algorithm identfied that data resides on manifolds of much lower dimensionality compared to the high-dimensional state space that describes each trajectory. In addition to the path-planing worflow we also propose an algorithm that utilizes the diffusion map coordinates along the manifold to label and possibly remove outlier samples from the training data. This algorithm can be used to both identify edge cases for further analysis as well as to remove them from the training set to create a more robust set of samples to be used for the path-planing process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydrogen Dispersion Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring

Studying hydrogen dispersion is crucial for ensuring the safe and effective deployment of hydrogen as an energy carrier. This study presents a comprehensive CFD modeling framework for simulating hydrogen dispersion at a real-world hydrogen production, storage, and utilization facility. Utilizing the Hydrogen Research Facility under the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons campus, controlled hydrogen releases at 27 kg-H2/hr were simulated. The model incorporated site-specific atmospheric conditions, including hourly wind speeds and temperatures recorded between 8 AM and 8 PM from October to December 2023. To reduce computational demands, a statistical reduction technique was applied to condense the dataset to 100 representative scenarios, validated by statistical tests for wind speeds and power law coefficients. Simulations were conducted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Results demonstrated that wind speed substantially influences hydrogen dispersion, with low wind conditions forming concentrated clouds and higher wind speeds stretching the plume. Additionally, clustering analysis informed optimal sensor placement at various elevations with up to 10 sensor locations on each elevation. This framework offers a robust approach for understanding hydrogen behavior in ambient conditions and informing detection strategies.

08 HYDROGEN↗