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Decadal and seasonal changes in barrier island geomorphology at Padre Island from 1950-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the effect of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on island stability. Changes in geomorphic facies on the islands may be indicators of an island shifting out of an equilibrium state. Here, we used aerial and satellite images of Padre Island, Texas near Mansfield Pass, to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes from 1970-2020. Inspection of the images reveals that this area experienced significant change over the past five decades, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes and a tidal flat with microbial mats. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12% coverage to 6%. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. Possible triggers for the transition from active sand dune fields to microbial mats and vegetation may be modifications to the island topography post-hurricane Allen in 1980 and a sea-level driven water table rise. The local sea level has risen 16 cm over the study period. Monthly mapping over a full year demonstrated the strong influence the seasonal water cycle has on the back-island facies. Aeolian transport plays a primary role in the back-island geomorphology, however the availability of sand for transport is highly variable from month to month as the surface fluctuates in and out of the capillary fringe. The increasing prevalence of water table-driven facies changes leads to the conclusion that back-barrier accretion is not keeping pace with relative SLR. These facies changes may be the first signs of a degrading microtidal barrier island.

K.R. Fisher↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observational window effects on multi-object reverberation mapping

ABSTRACT Contemporary reverberation mapping campaigns are employing wide-area photometric data and high-multiplex spectroscopy to efficiently monitor hundreds of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, the interaction of the window function(s) imposed by the observation cadence with the reverberation lag and AGN variability time-scales (intrinsic to each source over a range of luminosities) impact our ability to recover these fundamental physical properties. Time dilation effects due to the sample source redshift distribution introduce added complexity. We present comprehensive analysis of the implications of observational cadence, seasonal gaps, and campaign baseline duration (i.e. the survey window function) for reverberation lag recovery. We find that the presence of a significant seasonal gap dominates the efficacy of any given campaign strategy for lag recovery across the parameter space, particularly for those sources with observed-frame lags above 100 d. Using the Australian Dark Energy Survey as a baseline, we consider the implications of this analysis for the 4MOST/Time-Domain Extragalactic Survey campaign providing concurrent follow-up of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time deep-drilling fields, as well as upcoming programmes. We conclude that the success of such surveys will be critically limited by the seasonal visibility of some potential field choices, but show significant improvement from extending the baseline. Optimizing the sample selection to fit the window function will improve survey efficacy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

AGNet: weighing black holes with deep learning

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are commonly found at the centres of most massive galaxies. Measuring SMBH mass is crucial for understanding the origin and evolution of SMBHs. Traditional approaches, on the other hand, necessitate the collection of spectroscopic data, which is costly. We present an algorithm that weighs SMBHs using quasar light time series information, including colours, multiband magnitudes, and the variability of the light curves, circumventing the need for expensive spectra. We train, validate, and test neural networks that directly learn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 light curves for a sample of 38 939 spectroscopically confirmed quasars to map out the non-linear encoding between SMBH mass and multiband optical light curves. We find a 1σ scatter of 0.37 dex between the predicted SMBH mass and the fiducial virial mass estimate based on SDSS single-epoch spectra, which is comparable to the systematic uncertainty in the virial mass estimate. Our results have direct implications for more efficient applications with future observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Our code, AGNet, is publicly available at https://github.com/snehjp2/AGNet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protoplast fusion in Bacillus species produces frequent, unbiased, genome-wide homologous recombination

Abstract In eukaryotes, fine-scale maps of meiotic recombination events have greatly advanced our understanding of the factors that affect genomic variation patterns and evolution of traits. However, in bacteria that lack natural systems for sexual reproduction, unbiased characterization of recombination landscapes has remained challenging due to variable rates of genetic exchange and influence of natural selection. Here, to overcome these limitations and to gain a genome-wide view on recombination, we crossed Bacillus strains with different genetic distances using protoplast fusion. The offspring displayed complex inheritance patterns with one of the parents consistently contributing the major part of the chromosome backbone and multiple unselected fragments originating from the second parent. Our results demonstrate that this bias was in part due to the action of restriction–modification systems, whereas genome features like GC content and local nucleotide identity did not affect distribution of recombination events around the chromosome. Furthermore, we found that recombination occurred uniformly across the genome without concentration into hotspots. Notably, our results show that species-level genetic distance did not affect genome-wide recombination. This study provides a new insight into the dynamics of recombination in bacteria and a platform for studying recombination patterns in diverse bacterial species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Pentavalent HIV-1 Subtype C Vaccine Containing Computationally Selected gp120 Strains Improves the Breadth of V1V2 Region Responses

Background: HIV-1 envelope (Env) variable loops 1 and 2 (V1V2) directed non-neutralizing antibodies were a correlate of decreased transmission risk in the RV144 vaccine trial. Thus, the elicitation and breadth of antibody responses against the V1V2 of HIV-1 Env are important considerations for HIV-1 vaccine candidates. The V1V2 region’s highly variable nature and the extensive diversity of subtype C HIV-1 Envelopes (Envs) make the V1V2 response breadth a high priority for HIV-1 vaccine regimens aiming for V1V2-mediated protection in Southern Africa. Here, we determined whether the breadth of the anti-V1V2 vaccine response can be broadened by including HIV-1 Env strains computationally designed to enhance the coverage of subtype C V1V2 sequence diversity. Methods: Three subtype C Env strains were selected to maximize antibody binding coverage while complementing subtype C vaccine gp120s that were given in human clinical trials in South Africa, as well as to improve epitope accessibility. Humoral immunogenicity of a novel trivalent gp120 vaccine immunogen, a bivalent gp120 boost already in clinical trials (1086C and TV1), and a pentavalent (all five gp120s combined) were evaluated in a preclinical immunization study in guinea pigs. The pentavalent combination was further evaluated with alum versus glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvants formulated in squalene-in-water emulsion (GLA-SE) adjuvants in non-human primates. The breadth of the anti-V1V2 response was assessed using an array of cross-subtype variable loops 1&2 (V1V2) scaffold proteins and linear V2 peptides. Results: The breadth of the IgG response against V1V2 antigens of the trivalent and pentavalent groups was comparable, and both were greater than the breadth of the bivalent group. Linear epitope mapping showed that two linear epitopes in V2 were targeted by the vaccinated animals: the V2 hotspot focused at 169K that potentially correlated with decreased HIV-1 risk in RV144 and the V2.2 site (179LDV/I181) that is part of the integrin α4β7 binding site. The bivalent vaccine elicited a significantly higher magnitude of binding to the V2 hotspot compared to the trivalent vaccine whereas the trivalent vaccine elicited significantly higher binding to the V2.2 epitope compared to the bivalent vaccine, while the pentavalent recognized both regions. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that the three new computationally selected subtype C Envs successfully complemented 1086C and TV1 for broader V1V2 antibody responses, and, in concert with adjuvants that stimulate V1V2 responses, can be considered as part of a rationale immunogen design to improve V1V2 IgG coverage in future vaccine trials in South Africa.

Immunology↗
NASA NTRS1975

M-DAS: System for multispectral data analysis

M-DAS is a ground data processing system designed for analysis of multispectral data. M-DAS operates on multispectral data from LANDSAT, S-192, M2S and other sources in CCT form. Interactive training by operator-investigators using a variable cursor on a color display was used to derive optimum processing coefficients and data on cluster separability. An advanced multivariate normal-maximum likelihood processing algorithm was used to produce output in various formats: color-coded film images, geometrically corrected map overlays, moving displays of scene sections, coverage tabulations and categorized CCTs. The analysis procedure for M-DAS involves three phases: (1) screening and training, (2) analysis of training data to compute performance predictions and processing coefficients, and (3) processing of multichannel input data into categorized results. Typical M-DAS applications involve iteration between each of these phases. A series of photographs of the M-DAS display are used to illustrate M-DAS operation.

Johnson, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, volume 29. Part 1: Extended Abstracts, International Symposium on Solar Activity Forcing of the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: MASH Workshop

The proceedings of the symposium is presented. Eight different sessions were presented: (1) Papers generally related to the subject; (2) Papers on the influence of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation; (3) Papers on the influence of the solar electromagnetic radiation variability; (4) Papers on the solar wind and high energy particle influence; (5) Papers on atmospheric circulation; (6) Papers on atmospheric electricity; (7) Papers on lower ionospheric variability; and (8) Solar posters, which are not included in this compilation.

Lastovicka, Jan↗
NASA NTRS1995

TOGA COARE Satellite data summaries available on the World Wide Web

Satellite data summary images and analysis plots from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), which were initially prepared in the field at the Honiara Operations Center, are now available on the Internet via World Wide Web browsers such as Mosaic. These satellite data summaries consist of products derived from the Japanese Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite IR data: a time-size series of the distribution of contiguous cold cloudiness areas, weekly percent high cloudiness (PHC) maps, and a five-month time-longitudinal diagram illustrating the zonal motion of large areas of cold cloudiness. The weekly PHC maps are overlaid with weekly mean 850-hPa wind calculated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analysis field and can be viewed as an animation loop. These satellite summaries provide an overview of spatial and temporal variabilities of the cloud population and a large-scale context for studies concerning specific processes of various components of TOGA COARE.

Chen, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

First Search for an X-Ray-Optical Reverberation Signal in an Ultraluminous X-Ray Source

Using simultaneous optical (VLT/FORS2) and X-ray (XMM-Newton) data of NGC 5408, we present the first ever attempt to search for a reverberation signal in an ultraluminous X-ray source (NGC 5408 X-1). The idea is similar to active galactic nucleus broad line reverberation mapping where a lag measurement between the X-ray and the optical flux combined with a Keplerian velocity estimate should enable us to weigh the central compact object. We find that although NGC 5408 X-1ʼs X-rays are variable on a timescale of a few hundred seconds (rms of 9.0 +/- 0.5%), the optical emission does not show any statistically significant variations. We set a 3σ upper limit on the rms optical variability of 3.3%. The ratio of the X-ray to the optical variability is an indicator of X-ray reprocessing efficiency. In X-ray binaries, this ratio is roughly 5. Assuming a similar ratio for NGC 5408 X-1, the expected rms optical variability is approximately equal to 2%, which is still a factor of roughly two lower than what was possible with the VLT observations in this study. We find marginal evidence (3 sigma) for optical variability on an approximately 24 hr timescale. Our results demonstrate that such measurements can be made, but photometric conditions, low sky background levels, and longer simultaneous observations will be required to reach optical variability levels similar to those of X-ray binaries.

: accretion↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis and comparison of ozone maps obtained by TOMS and TOVS during the MAP/GLOBUS 1983 campaign

The Nimbus 7 TOMS (UV) and NOAA 7 and NOAA 8 TOVS (IR) data have been specially processed for the MAP/GLOBUS campaign (September 1983, over Europe). Comparison of the ozone results shows a general agreement but also some discrepancies due to clouds, emissivity of the surface, and latitude effects. The variability of the ozone field, closely linked to geopotential height field, may have induced a great change in total ozone along the balloon flights, but fortunately trajectories tend to lie parallel to the total ozone contours, so that the total ozone during each flight is nearly constant.

Muller, S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Retrieval of Daily Maps of PM2.5 Aerosol in the Problematic California Valleys: Bright, Speckled Reflectances, Thin AOT, but High Pollution

The San Joaquin Valley suffers from severe episodes of respirable aerosol (PM2.5) in wintertime.We provide maps of aerosol episodes using daily snapshots of PM2.5 and its changing features despite numerous difficulties inherent to sampling the region. Linear relationships relating aerosol optical thickness (AOT) to PM2.5 give an explained variance of approximately 3.The GEO-CAPE mission has as a goal the provision of relevant measures of respirable aerosol to the community,but has not formulated a science goal beyond the limited goal of retrieval of AOT, bringing the usefulness of GEO-CAPE into doubt.Our special focus was on the DISCOVER-AQ period, Jan-Feb 2013, which had many supporting measurements.Both high pollution and retrieval difficulties tend to occur in many Mediterranean agricultural regions like the San Joauin. One difficulty is the relatively bright surfaces with considerable exposed soil. NASAs MAIAC and MODIS Deep Blue retrieval techniques are shown to have considerable skill even at low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) values, as evaluated by concurrent AERONET sunphotometer measurements.More significantly, these AOT values can correspond to high daytime PM2.5 since aerosol mixed layer depth is thin and variable, 200m 600 m. The thin layers derive from typical subsidence of dry air between more stormy periods. This situation provides an advantage: water vapor column is also almost completely limited to a similar mixed layer depth, and can thus serve as a measure of aerosol dilution.Using the MAIAC Water Vapor Column:In order to make the maps below, we used the MAIAC data but subtracted partial water-vapor columns estimated from MERRA Reanalysis Data availabe from the GSFC GMAO using kriging. We did not use the mixed-layer estimates from MERRA, since such analyses were found problematic during our forecasting exercises for DISCOVER-AQ. Observations from the aircraft soundings suggested that this overlying moisture was mostly due to larger scale flows, not ML venting.However, the specific humidity at the surface and a nearly well-mixed ML was analyzed by kriging from the surface network (MesoWest, University of Utah). These were thought to be truer, uninfluenced by physical process modeling that combines with data observations. (TBD: How different are they?) Procedure: Subtract overlying partial water columns from MAIAC column water and divide this by a surface value of water vapor. (MAIAC column is expressed in cm of water, i.e., water vapor at surface conditions.This method appears to bring out useful details in the distribution of submicron particles in the very problematic Wintertime San Joaquin Valley, and allow analysis of pollution episodes throughout the valley, rather than long-term averages.

san joaquin valley↗
NASA NTRS1991

High resolution atmospheric and surface variability from combined MAMS and VAS radiances

Measuring of the variation of atmospheric and surface quantities such as moisture and stability at small scales is an important step to monitoring, understanding and forecasting mesoscale processes. For instance, moisture and stability products from the geostationary platform VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) exhibit interesting detail at the meso B (20-200 km) level (Chesters et al., 1986; Smith et al., 1985). However, variations at the meso C scale (2-20 km) and at the lower end of the meso B scale (20-100 km) suffer from the effects of noise. Noise can be greatly reduced by using a high resolution data collection system. The Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), with its 100-m resolution over a 36km swath, is well suited to provide high resolution mesoscale information about the atmosphere and surface of the earth. A more complete depiction of the atmospheric state at the smaller scales is possible through the combination of the high horizontal resolution MAMS data with the vertical sounding data of the VAS. This paper demonstrates a procedure for combining MAMS and VAS data in a physical retrieval to produce high resolution derived products of precipitable water (PW), lifted index (LI), and skin temperature (TS). The variability of these products is evaluated in a structure function analysis similar to that of Hillger and Vonder Haar (1979). Results for 19 June 1986 from the Cooperative Hunstville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) are presented.

Moeller, Christopher C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hemispherical power asymmetry in intensity and polarization for Planck PR4 data

Abstract One of the foundations of the Standard Model of Cosmology is statistical isotropy, which can be tested, among other probes, through the study of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). However, a hemispherical power asymmetry on large scales has been reported for WMAP and Planck data by different works.The statistical significance is above 3σfor temperature, suggesting a directional dependence of the local power spectrum, and thus a feature beyond the ΛCDM model. With the third release of the Planck data (PR3), a new analysis was performed including the E-mode polarization maps, finding an asymmetry at a modest level of significance. In this work, we perform an asymmetry analysis in intensity and polarization maps for the latest Planck processing pipeline (PR4). We obtain similar results to those obtained with PR3, with a slightly lower significance (2.8% for the Sevem method)for the amplitude of the E-mode local variance dipole as well as a significant variability with the considered mask.In addition, a hint of a possible T-E alignment between the asymmetry axes is found at the level of ∼ 5%. For the analysis, we have implemented an alternative inpainting approach in order to get an accurate reconstruction of the E-modes. More sensitive all-sky CMB polarization data, such as those expected from the future LiteBIRD experiment, are needed to reach a more robust conclusion on the possible existence of deviations from statistical isotropy in the form of a hemispherical power asymmetry.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1993

Seasonal variability of bio-optical and physical properties in the Sargasso Sea

The seasonal variability of bio-optical and physical properties within the upper ocean at a site in the Sargasso Sea has been observed in multivariable moored systems during a 9-month period. In addition, complementary meteorological data, sea surface height and sea surface temperature maps, and expendable bathythermograph and shipboard profile data have been utilized for interpretation. The observations during March are characteristic of late wintertime conditions of a deep isothermal layer, but with intervening periods of warming due to the advection of warm outbreak waters associated with Gulf Stream meanders. The mixed layer depth shoals from greater than 160 m to about 25 m in late March (spring transition). Phytoplankton blooms follow the mixed layer shoaling. A succession of phytoplankton populations occurs during this transitional interval. The mixed layer remains near 25 m for the summer and deepens in mid-September. A relatively intense subsurface maximum in chlorophyll develops at about 75 m following the spring transition. The maximum persists, but weakens in mid-summer.

Dickey, T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Operational satellites and the global monitoring of snow and ice

The altitudinal dependence of the global warming projected by global climate models is at least partially attributable to the albedo-temperature feedback involving snow and ice, which must be regarded as key variables in the monitoring for global change. Statistical analyses of data from IR and microwave sensors monitoring the areal coverage and extent of sea ice have led to mixed conclusions about recent trends of hemisphere sea ice coverage. Seasonal snow cover has been mapped for over 20 years by NOAA/NESDIS on the basis of imagery from a variety of satellite sensors. Multichannel passive microwave data show some promise for the routine monitoring of snow depth over unforested land areas.

Walsh, John E.↗