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NASA NTRS1988

Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC), version 4.0: User's manual

The information in the NASARC (Version 4.0) Technical Manual (NASA-TM-101453) and NASARC (Version 4.0) User's Manual (NASA-TM-101454) relates to the state of Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC) software development through November 1, 1988. The Technical Manual describes the NASARC concept and the algorithms used to implement the concept. The User's Manual provides information on computer system considerations, installation instructions, description of input files, and program operation instructions. Significant revisions were incorporated in the Version 4.0 software over prior versions. These revisions have further enhanced the modeling capabilities of the NASARC procedure and provide improved arrangements of predetermined arcs within the geostationary orbit. Array dimensions within the software were structured to fit within the currently available 12-megabyte memory capacity of the International Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) computer facility. A piecewise approach to predetermined arc generation in NASARC (Version 4.) allows worldwide planning problem scenarios to be accommodated within computer run time and memory constraints with enhanced likelihood and ease of solution.

Whyte, Wayne A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Big-bang nucleosynthesis revisited

The homogeneous big-bang nucleosynthesis yields of D, He-3, He-4, and Li-7 are computed taking into account recent measurements of the neutron mean-life as well as updates of several nuclear reaction rates which primarily affect the production of Li-7. The extraction of primordial abundances from observation and the likelihood that the primordial mass fraction of He-4, Y(sub p) is less than or equal to 0.24 are discussed. Using the primordial abundances of D + He-3 and Li-7 we limit the baryon-to-photon ratio (eta in units of 10 exp -10) 2.6 less than or equal to eta(sub 10) less than or equal to 4.3; which we use to argue that baryons contribute between 0.02 and 0.11 to the critical energy density of the universe. An upper limit to Y(sub p) of 0.24 constrains the number of light neutrinos to N(sub nu) less than or equal to 3.4, in excellent agreement with the LEP and SLC collider results. We turn this argument around to show that the collider limit of 3 neutrino species can be used to bound the primordial abundance of He-4: 0.235 less than or equal to Y(sub p) less than or equal to 0.245.

Olive, Keith A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The analysis of polar clouds from AVHRR satellite data using pattern recognition techniques

The cloud cover in a set of summertime and wintertime AVHRR data from the Arctic and Antarctic regions was analyzed using a pattern recognition algorithm. The data were collected by the NOAA-7 satellite on 6 to 13 Jan. and 1 to 7 Jul. 1984 between 60 deg and 90 deg north and south latitude in 5 spectral channels, at the Global Area Coverage (GAC) resolution of approximately 4 km. This data embodied a Polar Cloud Pilot Data Set which was analyzed by a number of research groups as part of a polar cloud algorithm intercomparison study. This study was intended to determine whether the additional information contained in the AVHRR channels (beyond the standard visible and infrared bands on geostationary satellites) could be effectively utilized in cloud algorithms to resolve some of the cloud detection problems caused by low visible and thermal contrasts in the polar regions. The analysis described makes use of a pattern recognition algorithm which estimates the surface and cloud classification, cloud fraction, and surface and cloudy visible (channel 1) albedo and infrared (channel 4) brightness temperatures on a 2.5 x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude grid. In each grid box several spectral and textural features were computed from the calibrated pixel values in the multispectral imagery, then used to classify the region into one of eighteen surface and/or cloud types using the maximum likelihood decision rule. A slightly different version of the algorithm was used for each season and hemisphere because of differences in categories and because of the lack of visible imagery during winter. The classification of the scene is used to specify the optimal AVHRR channel for separating clear and cloudy pixels using a hybrid histogram-spatial coherence method. This method estimates values for cloud fraction, clear and cloudy albedos and brightness temperatures in each grid box. The choice of a class-dependent AVHRR channel allows for better separation of clear and cloudy pixels than does a global choice of a visible and/or infrared threshold. The classification also prevents erroneous estimates of large fractional cloudiness in areas of cloudfree snow and sea ice. The hybrid histogram-spatial coherence technique and the advantages of first classifying a scene in the polar regions are detailed. The complete Polar Cloud Pilot Data Set was analyzed and the results are presented and discussed.

Smith, William L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

More data on (possible) gamma ray (point) sources

The 2CG catalog of gamma ray sources was compiled before detailed knowledge was available on the fine-scale structure of the diffuse Galactic gamma-ray emission. Two independent analyses to discriminate sources which are either compact objects of due to very local and strong enhancements in the Galactic cosmic-ray distribution from those which are artifacts due to the clumpy gas distribution are about to be completed: a maximum likelihood analysis and a cross correlation analysis. Arguments are given why differences, and therefore confusion, and in resulting source lists can be expected. Detailed analysis of all COS-B gamma-ray data on Geminga (2CG195+04), reveals the existence of a drastic spectral break below 200 MeV. A power-law spectrum with index -1.88 fits the data above about 100 MeV to 3.2 GeV, however, there are also indications for a spectral break above these energies. For energies above about 100 MeV no evidence for a long-term time variability was found. The error region of Geminga was searched for a radio counterpart at wavelengths of 90, 49, 21, 6, and 2 cm using the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope and the Very Large Array. So far, 16 sources were detected in this error region. In the direction of 1E0630+178, the Einstein x ray source proposed to be a Vela-like pulsar and the counterpart of Geminga, no radio source was found at 21, 49, and 90 cm with 3 sigma upper limits on the flux densities ranging from 0.5 mJy at 21 cm to 4.5 mJy at 90 cm. Detailed structures in local molecular cloud complexes are so far only resolved in gamma rays for the closet and most massive complexes, namely those in the Orion-Monoceros and the Ophiuchus regions. For both region, there is circumstantial evidence for gamma ray emission from molecular gas that was photodissociated after the passage of a SN shell.

Hermsen, W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A hybrid M-algorithm/sequential decoder for convolutional and trellis codes

The Viterbi Algorithm (VA) is optimum in the sense of being maximum likelihood for decoding codes with a trellis structure. However, since the VA is in fact an exhaustive search of the code trellis, the complexity of the VA grows exponentially with the constraint length upsilon. This limits its application to codes with small values of upsilon and relatively modest coding gains. The M-Algorithm (MA) is a limited search scheme which carries forward M paths in the trellis, all of the same length. All successors of the M paths are extended at the next trellis depth, and all but the best M of these are dropped. Since a limited search convolutional decoder will flounder indefinitely if one of the paths in storage is not the correct one, the data are usually transmitted in blocks. It has been shown that the performance of the MA approaches the VA at high signal to noise ratios (SNR's) with an M which is far less than the 2 sup upsilon states in the full trellis. Thus the MA can be used with larger values of upsilon, making larger coding gains possible at high SNR's. However, it still requires a relatively large fixed computational effort to achieve good performance.

Wang, Fu-Quan↗
NASA NTRS1990

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Kim, Hakil↗
NASA NTRS1989

The computation of generalized cross-validation functions through householder tridiagonalization with applications to the fitting of interaction spline models

An efficient algorithm for computing the generalized cross-validation function for the general cross-validated regularization/smoothing problem is provided. This algorithm is appropriate for problems where no natural structure is available, and the regularization/smoothing problem is solved (exactly) in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. It is particularly appropriate for certain multivariate smoothing problems with irregularly spaced data, and certain remote sensing problems, such as those that occur in meteorology, where the sensors are arranged irregularly. The algorithm is applied to the fitting of interaction spline models with irregularly spaced data and two smoothing parameters; favorable timing results are presented. The algorithm may be extended to the computation of certain generalized maximum likelihood (GML) functions. Application of the GML algorithm to a problem in numerical weather forecasting, and to a broad class of hypothesis testing problems, is noted.

Gu, Chong↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cloud identification for ERBE radiative flux retrieval

A maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique to the problem of cloud identification using coarse resolution broadband satellite data is developed and tested using simulated satellite observations. The results suggest that, in the determination of cloud conditions for the inversion of satellite-measured radiances to fluxes, the MLE method is an improvement over a Lambertian earth assumption and the clear/cloud threshold used in the inversion of Nimbus 3 and Nimbus 7 data. The use of the MLE method in the operational processing of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment scanner data is considered.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

X-ray studies of coeval star samples. II - The Pleiades cluster as observed with the Einstein Observatory

Coronal X-ray emission of the Pleiades stars is investigated, and maximum likelihood, integral X-ray luminosity functions are computed for Pleiades members in selected color-index ranges. A detailed search is conducted for long-term variability in the X-ray emission of those stars observed more than once. An overall comparison of the survey results with those of previous surveys confirms the ubiquity of X-ray emission in the Pleiades cluster stars and its higher rate of emission with respect to older stars. It is found that the X-ray emission from dA and early dF stars cannot be proven to be dissimilar to that of Hyades and field stars of the same spectral type. The Pleiades cluster members show a real rise of the X-ray luminosity from dA stars to early dF stars. X-ray emission for the young, solarlike Pleiades stars is about two orders of magnitude more intense than for the nearby solarlike stars.

Micela, G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Cloud classification from satellite data using a fuzzy sets algorithm - A polar example

Where spatial boundaries between phenomena are diffuse, classification methods which construct mutually exclusive clusters seem inappropriate. The Fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm assigns each observation to all clusters, with membership values as a function of distance to the cluster center. The FCM algorithm is applied to AVHRR data for the purpose of classifying polar clouds and surfaces. Careful analysis of the fuzzy sets can provide information on which spectral channels are best suited to the classification of particular features, and can help determine like areas of misclassification. General agreement in the resulting classes and cloud fraction was found between the FCM algorithm, a manual classification, and an unsupervised maximum likelihood classifier.

Key, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimating the exceedance probability of rain rate by logistic regression

Recent studies have shown that the fraction of an area with rain intensity above a fixed threshold is highly correlated with the area-averaged rain rate. To estimate the fractional rainy area, a logistic regression model, which estimates the conditional probability that rain rate over an area exceeds a fixed threshold given the values of related covariates, is developed. The problem of dependency in the data in the estimation procedure is bypassed by the method of partial likelihood. Analyses of simulated scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and observed electrically scanning microwave radiometer data during the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment period show that the use of logistic regression in pixel classification is superior to multiple regression in predicting whether rain rate at each pixel exceeds a given threshold, even in the presence of noisy data. The potential of the logistic regression technique in satellite rain rate estimation is discussed.

Chiu, Long S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Location of a faulty module in a computing system

Considering the interplay between different phases of fault tolerance, a new problem of locating a faulty module in a computing system is formulated and solved. First, the probability of each module being faulty, or faulty probability, is calculated using the likelihood principle from the model parameters for fault detection, diagnostics, error propagation, and error detection. Then, based on the faulty probabilities and a given required diagnostic coverage, the order in which modules are to be diagnosed and the maximum time allotted to diagnose each module are determined by minimizing the average total diagnostic time. An example is presented and analyzed to answer the question of whether or not a system should delay the diagnosis upon detection of an error until more errors are detected.

Lin, Tein-Hsiang↗
NASA NTRS1990

SAGE II observations of polar stratospheric clouds near 50 deg N January 31 - February 2, 1989

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) form at very cold temperatures which typically occur only at high latitudes during local winter. However, meteorological circumstances in the Arctic during late January 1989 led to PSC formation unusually far to the south, at latitudes (near 50 deg N) being sampled during the period by the orbiting SAGE II instrument. These unusual PSC sightings and the evolution of meteorological conditions which produced the episode are described. Profiles of SAGE II extinction measurements at 0.525 and 1.02 microns show clear signatures of PSCs and indicate that the cloud particles were considerably larger than the background aerosol. It is most important to note that the clouds were sighted at a latitude where there was extensive sunlight, thus increasing the likelihood of ozone loss both locally and downstream due to enhancements in reactive chlorine expected from heterogeneous chemical processing within the PSCs.

Pitts, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Artificial neural network classification using a minimal training set - Comparison to conventional supervised classification

Recent research has shown an artificial neural network (ANN) to be capable of pattern recognition and the classification of image data. This paper examines the potential for the application of neural network computing to satellite image processing. A second objective is to provide a preliminary comparison and ANN classification. An artificial neural network can be trained to do land-cover classification of satellite imagery using selected sites representative of each class in a manner similar to conventional supervised classification. One of the major problems associated with recognition and classifications of pattern from remotely sensed data is the time and cost of developing a set of training sites. This reseach compares the use of an ANN back propagation classification procedure with a conventional supervised maximum likelihood classification procedure using a minimal training set. When using a minimal training set, the neural network is able to provide a land-cover classification superior to the classification derived from the conventional classification procedure. This research is the foundation for developing application parameters for further prototyping of software and hardware implementations for artificial neural networks in satellite image and geographic information processing.

Hepner, George F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A search for anisotropy in the cosmic microwave radiation at medium angular scales

The results are reported from a search for anisotropy in the cosmic microwave radiation (CMR) at angular scales of 0.5 to 5 deg. No temperature fluctuations are detected, and limits are placed on intrinsic CMR anisotropy. These limits are expressed in terms of two models which describe the temperature fluctuations. For models specified by a Gaussian-shaped correlation function, the fluctuation amplitude is found to be 1.1 x 10 to the -4th or less at 1.1 deg; for models with monochromatic fluctuations it is 7.5 x 10 to the -5th or less at 1.7 deg. These limits satisfy the likelihood ratio test at the 95 percent confidence level. The implications of the results for large-scale structure information scenarios are discussed.

Timbie, Peter T.↗