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Global Vertical Rates from VLBl

The analysis of global VLBI observations provides vertical rates for 50 sites with formal errors less than 2 mm/yr and median formal error of 0.4 mm/yr. These sites are largely in Europe and North America with a few others in east Asia, Australia, South America and South Africa. The time interval of observations is up to 20 years. The error of the velocity reference frame is less than 0.5 mm/yr, but results from several sites with observations from more than one antenna suggest that the estimated vertical rates may have temporal variations or non-geophysical components. Comparisons with GPS rates and corresponding site position time series will be discussed.

Ma, Chopo↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Can the angular scale of cosmic homogeneity be used as a cosmological test?

Abstract In standard cosmology, the cosmic homogeneity scale is the transition scale above which the patterns arising from non-uniformities – such as groups and clusters of galaxies, voids, and filaments – become indistinguishable from a random distribution of sources. Recently, different groups have investigated the feasibility of using such a scale as a cosmological test and arrived at different conclusions. In this paper, we complement and extend these studies by exploring the evolution of the spatial ( $$R_{\textrm{H}}$$ R H ) and angular ( $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H ) homogeneity scales with redshift, assuming a spatially flat, $$\varLambda $$ Λ -Cold Dark Matter universe and linear cosmological perturbation theory. We confirm previous results concerning the non-monotonicity of $$R_{\textrm{H}}$$ R H with the matter density parameter $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 but also show that it exhibits a monotonical behavior with the Hubble constant $$H_{0}$$ H 0 within a large redshift interval. More importantly, we find that, for $$z \gtrsim 0.6$$ z ≳ 0.6 , $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H presents a monotonical behavior with $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 , as well as for $$H_0$$ H 0 the entire redshift interval analyzed. We find also that the angular homogeneity scale is sensitive to $$H_{0}$$ H 0 , especially at higher redshifts. Using the currently available $$\theta _{\textrm{H}}$$ θ H measurements, we illustrate the constraints on the $$\varOmega _{\textrm{m0}}$$ Ω m0 – $$H_{0}$$ H 0 plane through a MCMC analysis and show the feasibility of using the angular homogeneity scale as a new, model-independent way to constrain cosmological parameters.

Physics↗

Noise propagation from a four-engine, propeller-driven airplane

A flight experiment was conducted to investigate the propagation of periodic low-frequency noise from a propeller-driven airplane. The test airplane was a large four-engine, propeller-driven airplane flown at altitudes from 15 to 500 m over the end of an 1800-m-long, 22-element microphone array. The acoustic data were reduced by a one-third octave-band analysis. The primary propagation quantities computed were lateral attenuation and ground effects, both of which become significant at shallow elevation angles. Scatter in the measured results largely obscured the physics of the low-frequency noise propagation. Variability of the noise source, up to 9.5 dB over a 2-sec interval, was the major contributor to the data scatter. The microphones mounted at ground level produced more consistent results with less scatter than those mounted 1.2 m above ground. The ground noise levels were found to be greater on the port side than on the starboard side.

Willshire, William L., Jr.↗

Use of AVIRIS data to the definition of optimised specifications for land applications with future spaceborne imaging spectrometers

Recent experience with airborne imaging spectrometers demonstrated the advantages of narrow band sensors over broad band scanners for characterizing the nature, extent, and physical status of typical land surfaces. Information on key spectral features associated with various land surfaces can be obtained from the data of such instruments, which can be used to simulate spaceborne imaging spectrometer data and to assess their information content if comprehensive underpinning is provided by ground data. The collection of such information was an issue of airborne imaging spectrometer campaigns like the NASA MAC-Europe 1991. Airborne and ground data obtained from different test sites in Europe are utilized for a comparative analysis of the spectral signatures of various land surfaces (vegetation, bare soils and rocks, and mixed soil/rock-vegetation) as seen from different imaging spectrometers like Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), GERIS 63 band scanner, and CASI. The following items are discussed: (1) the significance of different spectral regions within the wavelength interval between 0.4 m and 2.5 m for the differentiation of different land units; (2) recommendations on the optimum band selection and band-widths to be used for the application of future satellite-based imaging spectrometers for land applications; (3) the boundaries for the detection of plant features in mixed-soil plant spectra and the influence of different soil properties on the mixture of the spectra; (4) recommendations on the optimum spatial resolution and recording dates for the discrimination of spectral features of various surface types; and (5) evaluation of different data compressing techniques for the optimum extraction of spectral information from imaging spectrometry data.

Bodechtel, J.↗

Reducing On-Board Computer Propagation Errors Due to Omitted Geopotential Terms by Judicious Selection of Uploaded State Vector

Several future, and some current missions, use an on-board computer (OBC) force model that is very limited. The OBC geopotential force model typically includes only the J(2), J(3), J(4), C(2,2) and S(2,2) terms to model non-spherical Earth gravitational effects. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Wide-field Infrared Explorer (WIRE), Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS), and X-ray Timing Explorer (XTE) all plan to use this geopotential force model on-board. The Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) is already flying this geopotential force model. Past analysis has shown that one of the leading sources of error in the OBC propagated ephemeris is the omission of the higher order geopotential terms. However, these same analyses have shown a wide range of accuracies for the OBC ephemerides. Analysis was performed using EUVE state vectors that showed the EUVE four day OBC propagated ephemerides varied in accuracy from 200 m. to 45 km. depending on the initial vector used to start the propagation. The vectors used in the study were from a single EUVE orbit at one minute intervals in the ephemeris. Since each vector propagated practically the same path as the others, the differences seen had to be due to differences in the inital state vector only. An algorithm was developed that will optimize the epoch of the uploaded state vector. Proper selection can reduce the previous errors of anywhere from 200 m. to 45 km. to generally less than one km. over four days of propagation. This would enable flight projects to minimize state vector uploads to the spacecraft. Additionally, this method is superior to other methods in that no additional orbit estimates need be done. The definitive ephemeris generated on the ground can be used as long as the proper epoch is chosen. This algorithm can be easily coded in software that would pick the epoch within a specified time range that would minimize the OBC propagation error. This techniques should greatly improve the accuracy of the OBC propagation on-board future spacecraft such as TRMM, WIRE, SWAS, and XTE without increasing complexity in the ground processing.

Greatorex, Scott↗

Effect of viewing distance on the generation of vertical eye movements during locomotion

Vertical head and eye coordination was studied as a function of viewing distance during locomotion. Vertical head translation and pitch movements were measured using a video motion analysis system (Optotrak 3020). Vertical eye movements were recorded using a video-based pupil tracker (Iscan). Subjects (five) walked on a linear treadmill at a speed of 1.67 m/s (6 km/h) while viewing a target screen placed at distances ranging from 0.25 to 2.0 m at 0. 25-m intervals. The predominant frequency of vertical head movement was 2 Hz. In accordance with previous studies, there was a small head pitch rotation, which was compensatory for vertical head translation. The magnitude of the vertical head movements and the phase relationship between head translation and pitch were little affected by viewing distance, and tended to orient the naso-occipital axis of the head at a point approximately 1 m in front of the subject (the head fixation distance or HFD). In contrast, eye velocity was significantly affected by viewing distance. When viewing a far (2-m) target, vertical eye velocity was 180 degrees out of phase with head pitch velocity, with a gain of 0. 8. This indicated that the angular vestibulo-ocular reflex (aVOR) was generating the eye movement response. The major finding was that, at a close viewing distance (0.25 m), eye velocity was in phase with head pitch and compensatory for vertical head translation, suggesting that activation of the linear vestibulo-ocular reflex (lVOR) was contributing to the eye movement response. There was also a threefold increase in the magnitude of eye velocity when viewing near targets, which was consistent with the goal of maintaining gaze on target. The required vertical lVOR sensitivity to cancel an unmodified aVOR response and generate the observed eye velocity magnitude for near targets was almost 3 times that previously measured. Supplementary experiments were performed utilizing body-fixed active head pitch rotations at 1 and 2 Hz while viewing a head-fixed target. Results indicated that the interaction of smooth pursuit and the aVOR during visual suppression could modify both the gain and phase characteristics of the aVOR at frequencies encountered during locomotion. When walking, targets located closer than the HFD (1.0 m) would appear to move in the same direction as the head pitch, resulting in suppression of the aVOR. The results of the head-fixed target experiment suggest that phase modification of the aVOR during visual suppression could play a role in generating eye movements consistent with the goal of maintaining gaze on targets closer than the HFD, which would augment the lVOR response.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Space Radiation Induced Cytogenetic Damage in the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts: Persistence of Damage After Flight and the Effects of Repeat Long Duration Missions

Cytogenetic damage was assessed in blood lymphocytes from astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more. The frequency of chromosome damage was measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting before flight and at various intervals from a few days to many months after return from the mission. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome exchanges measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield. However, some individuals showed a temporal decline in chromosome damage with time after flight. Statistical analysis using combined data for all astronauts indicated a significant overall decreasing trend in total chromosome exchanges with time after flight, although this trend was not seen for all astronauts and the yield of chromosome damage in some individuals actually increased with time after flight. The decreasing trend in total exchanges was slightly more significant when statistical analysis was restricted to data collected more than 220 days after return from flight. In addition, limited data on multiple flights show a lack of correlation between time in space and translocation yields. Data from three crewmembers who has participated in two separate long-duration space missions provide limited information on the effect of repeat flights and show a possible adaptive response to space radiation exposure.

George, Kerry↗

Quality-Controlled Wind Data from the Kennedy Space Center 915 Megahertz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Network

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC) has installed a five-instrument 915-Megahertz (MHz) Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) system that records atmospheric wind profile properties. The purpose of these profilers is to fill data gaps between the top of the KSC wind tower network and the lowest measurement altitude of the KSC 50-MHz DRWP. The 915-MHz DRWP system has the capability to generate three-dimensional wind data outputs from approximately 150 meters (m) to 6,000 m at roughly 15-minute (min) intervals. NASA s long-term objective is to combine the 915-MHz and 50-MHz DRWP systems to create complete vertical wind profiles up to 18,300 m to be used in trajectory and loads analyses of space vehicles and by forecasters on day-of-launch (DOL). This analysis utilizes automated and manual quality control (QC) processes to remove erroneous and unrealistic wind data returned by the 915-MHz DRWP system. The percentage of data affected by each individual QC check in the period of record (POR) (i.e., January to April 2006) was computed, demonstrating the variability in the amount of data affected by the QC processes. The number of complete wind profiles available at given altitude thresholds for each profiler in the POR was calculated and outputted graphically, followed by an assessment of the number of complete wind profiles available for any profiler in the POR. A case study is also provided to demonstrate the QC process on a day of a known weather event.

Dryden, Rachel L.↗

Polarized View of Supercooled Liquid Water Clouds

Supercooled liquid water (SLW) clouds, where liquid droplets exist at temperatures below 0 C present a well known aviation hazard through aircraft icing, in which SLW accretes on the airframe. SLW clouds are common over the Southern Ocean, and climate-induced changes in their occurrence is thought to constitute a strong cloud feedback on global climate. The two recent NASA field campaigns POlarimeter Definition EXperiment (PODEX, based in Palmdale, California, January-February 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, based in Houston, Texas in August- September 2013) provided a unique opportunity to observe SLW clouds from the high-altitude airborne platform of NASA's ER-2 aircraft. We present an analysis of measurements made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) during these experiments accompanied by correlative retrievals from other sensors. The RSP measures both polarized and total reflectance in 9 spectral channels with wavelengths ranging from 410 to 2250 nm. It is a scanning sensor taking samples at 0.8deg intervals within 60deg from nadir in both forward and backward directions. This unique angular resolution allows for characterization of liquid water droplet size using the rainbow structure observed in the polarized reflectances in the scattering angle range between 135deg and 165deg. Simple parametric fitting algorithms applied to the polarized reflectance provide retrievals of the droplet effective radius and variance assuming a prescribed size distribution shape (gamma distribution). In addition to this, we use a non-parametric method, Rainbow Fourier Transform (RFT),which allows retrieval of the droplet size distribution without assuming a size distribution shape. We present an overview of the RSP campaign datasets available from the NASA GISS website, as well as two detailed examples of the retrievals. In these case studies we focus on cloud fields with spatial features varying between glaciated and liquid phases at altitudes as high as 10 km, which correspond to temperatures close to the homogeneous freezing temperature of pure water drops (about -35 C or colder). The multimodal droplet size distributions retrieved from RSP data in these cases are consistent with the multi-layer cloud structure observed by correlative Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) measurements.

Clouds↗

Improvements of the Load Schedule for the Machine Calibration of a Strain-Gage Balance

The load schedule for the calibration of a six-component force balance in a calibration machine was improved. Now, single-component loads are repeated in regular intervals during the calibration. This approach has several advantages. First, the number of single-component loads increases to about twenty-two percent of all loads and load combinations. Consequently, more accurate numerical estimates of the primary bridge sensitivities can be obtained if global regression is used for the analysis of the calibration data. In addition, single-component repeats make it possible to track the stability of the applied loads during the calibration process. Finally, interactions of single-component repeats can be compared with interactions that are observed during the application of manual loads to the balance. Machine calibration and manual data sets of two force balances are used to illustrate benefits of the new load schedule. It is shown in the examples how differences between the observed interactions of machine calibration and manual data can be quantified. The suggested improvements can also be implemented in the load schedule for the machine calibration of a moment or direct-read balance as long as single-component loads are included that are described in the design load format of the balance.

wind tunnel test↗

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Method for Approximating the Vacuum Motions of Spinning Symmetrical Bodies with Nonconstant Spin Rates

A method for approximating the vacuum motions of spinning rigid symmetrical bodies with varying spin rates and inertias has been completed. The analysis includes the effects of time varying thrust misalignments, mass unbalance, and jet damping. Results are given in the form of equations for space­ referenced Euler angles, flight-path angles, body­ referenced attitude rates, and earth-referenced vehicle-trajectory coordinates. The method consists of dividing the problem into intervals during which the time-dependent variables are assumed constant at their mean interval value. In order to check this procedure, solutions for various interval sizes are compared with solutions obtained with numerical methods. Although the method is somewhat lengthy for accurate hand computation in most cases, it is readily programed for machine solutions. Probably more important, the general solutions give insight into the separate effects of the variables and, in many cases, can be quickly used to determine the approxi­mate ranges of the variables required for the desired solution to a given problem. In this respect, equations for determining maximum wobble have been derived for certain input conditions. The method has been shown to compare closely with the numerical solutions of two sample problems. The sample problems also illustrated the relatively large effect of pitch and yaw jet damping on body motions.

VACUUM↗

The application of dimensional analysis to the problem of solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling

The constraints imposed by dimensional analysis are used to find how the solar wind-magnetosphere energy transfer rate depends upon interplanetary parameters. The analyses assume that only magnetohydrodynamic processes are important in controlling the rate of energy transfer. The study utilizes ISEE-3 solar wind observations, the AE index, and UT from three 10-day intervals during the International Magnetospheric Study. Simple linear regression and histogram techniques are used to find the value of the magnetohydrodynamic coupling exponent, alpha, which is consistent with observations of magnetospheric response. Once alpha is estimated, the form of the solar wind energy transfer rate is obtained by substitution into an equation of the interplanetary variables whose exponents depend upon alpha.

Bargatze, L. F.↗

Water vapor variance measurements using a Raman lidar

Because of the importance of atmospheric water vapor variance, we have analyzed data from the NASA/Goddard Raman lidar to obtain temporal scales of water vapor mixing ratio as a function of altitude over observation periods extending to 12 hours. The ground-based lidar measures water vapor mixing ration from near the earth's surface to an altitude of 9-10 km. Moisture profiles are acquired once every minute with 75 m vertical resolution. Data at each 75 meter altitude level can be displayed as a function of time from the beginning to the end of an observation period. These time sequences have been spectrally analyzed using a fast Fourier transform technique. An example of such a temporal spectrum obtained between 00:22 and 10:29 UT on December 6, 1991 is shown in the figure. The curve shown on the figure represents the spectral average of data from 11 height levels centered on an altitude of 1 km (1 plus or minus .375 km). The spectra shows a decrease in energy density with frequency which generally follows a -5/3 power law over the spectral interval 3x10 (exp -5) to 4x10 (exp -3) Hz. The flattening of the spectrum for frequencies greater than 6x10 (exp -3) Hz is most likely a measure of instrumental noise. Spectra like that shown in the figure are calculated for other altitudes and show changes in spectral features with height. Spectral analysis versus height have been performed for several observation periods which demonstrate changes in water vapor mixing ratio spectral character from one observation period to the next. The combination of these temporal spectra with independent measurements of winds aloft provide an opportunity to infer spatial scales of moisture variance.

Evans, K.↗

A Tool for Verification and Validation of Neural Network Based Adaptive Controllers for High Assurance Systems

High reliability of mission- and safety-critical software systems has been identified by NASA as a high-priority technology challenge. We present an approach for the performance analysis of a neural network (NN) in an advanced adaptive control system. This problem is important in the context of safety-critical applications that require certification, such as flight software in aircraft. We have developed a tool to measure the performance of the NN during operation by calculating a confidence interval (error bar) around the NN's output. Our tool can be used during pre-deployment verification as well as monitoring the network performance during operation. The tool has been implemented in Simulink and simulation results on a F-15 aircraft are presented.

Gupta, Pramod↗

Stability of Radiation Induced Chromosome Damage in Human Peripheral Blood Lymphocytes

Chromosome damage in an individual's peripheral blood lymphocytes can be an indicator of radiation exposure and this data can be used to evaluate dose after accidental or occupational exposure. Evidence suggests that the yield of chromosome damage in lymphocytes is also a relevant biomarker of cancer risk in humans that reflects individual cancer susceptibility. It follows that biomonitoring studies can be used to uncover subjects who are particularly susceptible to radiation damage and therefore at higher risk of cancer. Translocations and other stable aberrations are commonly believed to persist in peripheral blood cells for many years after exposure, and it has been suggested that translocations can be used for assessing retrospective radiation doses or chronic exposures. However, recent investigations suggest that translocations might not always persist indefinitely. We measured chromosome aberrations in the blood lymphocytes of six astronauts before their respective missions of approximately 3 to 6 months onboard the international space station, and again at various intervals up to 5 years after flight. In samples collected a few days after return to earth, the yield of chromosome translocations had significantly increased compared with preflight values, and results indicate that biodosimetry estimates lie within the range expected from physical dosimetry. However, for five of the astronauts, follow up analysis revealed a temporal decline in translocations with half-lives ranging from 10 to 58 months. The yield of exchanges remained unchanged for the sixth astronaut during an observation period of 5 months post-flight. These results may indicate complications with the use of stable aberrations for retrospective dose reconstruction and could affect cancer risk predictions that are estimated from yields of chromosome damage obtained shortly after exposure.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗