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NASA NTRS2009

Improving Regional Forecast by Assimilating Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles into WRF Model

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and produce improved forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced space-based atmospheric sounding systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate high resolution AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 2.2 using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background type, and an optimal methodology for ingesting AIRS temperature and moisture profiles as separate overland and overwater retrievals with different error characteristics. The AIRS thermodynamic profiles are derived from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm and contain information about the quality of each temperature layer. The quality indicators were used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for each profile location and pressure level. The analyses were then used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impacts of AIRS profiles on forecast were assessed against verifying NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Approach to Improved Credibility of CFD Simulations for Rocket Injector Design

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to improve the historical rocket injector design process by simulating the sensitivity of performance and injector-driven thermal environments to. the details of the injector geometry and key operational parameters. Methodical verification and validation efforts on a range of coaxial injector elements have shown the current production CFD capability must be improved in order to quantitatively impact the injector design process.. This paper documents the status of an effort to understand and compare the predictive capabilities and resource requirements of a range of CFD methodologies on a set of model problem injectors. Preliminary results from a steady Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes (RANS), an unsteady Reynolds-Average Navier Stokes (URANS) and three different Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques used to model a single element coaxial injector using gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen propellants are presented. Initial observations are made comparing instantaneous results, corresponding time-averaged and steady-state solutions in the near -injector flow field. Significant differences in the flow fields exist, as expected, and are discussed. An important preliminary result is the identification of a fundamental mixing mechanism, accounted for by URANS and LES, but missing in the steady BANS methodology. Since propellant mixing is the core injector function, this mixing process may prove to have a profound effect on the ability to more correctly simulate injector performance and resulting thermal environments. Issues important to unifying the basis for future comparison such as solution initialization, required run time and grid resolution are addressed.

Tucker, Paul K.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Improvements in Production of Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes

A continuing program of research and development has been directed toward improvement of a prior batch process in which single-walled carbon nanotubes are formed by catalytic disproportionation of carbon monoxide in a fluidized-bed reactor. The overall effect of the improvements has been to make progress toward converting the process from a batch mode to a continuous mode and to scaling of production to larger quantities. Efforts have also been made to optimize associated purification and dispersion post processes to make them effective at large scales and to investigate means of incorporating the purified products into composite materials. The ultimate purpose of the program is to enable the production of high-quality single-walled carbon nanotubes in quantities large enough and at costs low enough to foster the further development of practical applications. The fluidized bed used in this process contains mixed-metal catalyst particles. The choice of the catalyst and the operating conditions is such that the yield of single-walled carbon nanotubes, relative to all forms of carbon (including carbon fibers, multi-walled carbon nanotubes, and graphite) produced in the disproportionation reaction is more than 90 weight percent. After the reaction, the nanotubes are dispersed in various solvents in preparation for end use, which typically involves blending into a plastic, ceramic, or other matrix to form a composite material. Notwithstanding the batch nature of the unmodified prior fluidized-bed process, the fluidized-bed reactor operates in a continuous mode during the process. The operation is almost entirely automated, utilizing mass flow controllers, a control computer running software specific to the process, and other equipment. Moreover, an important inherent advantage of fluidized- bed reactors in general is that solid particles can be added to and removed from fluidized beds during operation. For these reasons, the process and equipment were amenable to modification for conversion from batch to continuous production.

Balzano, Leandro↗
NASA NTRS2009

Improved Aerogel Vacuum Thermal Insulation

An improved design concept for aerogel vacuum thermal-insulation panels calls for multiple layers of aerogel sandwiched between layers of aluminized Mylar (or equivalent) poly(ethylene terephthalate), as depicted in the figure. This concept is applicable to both the rigid (brick) form and the flexible (blanket) form of aerogel vacuum thermal-insulation panels. Heretofore, the fabrication of a typical aerogel vacuum insulating panel has involved encapsulation of a single layer of aerogel in poly(ethylene terephthalate) and pumping of gases out of the aerogel-filled volume. A multilayer panel according to the improved design concept is fabricated in basically the same way: Multiple alternating layers of aerogel and aluminized poly(ethylene terephthalate) are assembled, then encapsulated in an outer layer of poly(ethylene terephthalate), and then the volume containing the multilayer structure is evacuated as in the single-layer case. The multilayer concept makes it possible to reduce effective thermal conductivity of a panel below that of a comparable single-layer panel, without adding weight or incurring other performance penalties. Implementation of the multilayer concept is simple and relatively inexpensive, involving only a few additional fabrication steps to assemble the multiple layers prior to evacuation. For a panel of the blanket type, the multilayer concept, affords the additional advantage of reduced stiffness.

Ruemmele, Warren P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Improved Method of Design for Folding Inflatable Shells

An improved method of designing complexly shaped inflatable shells to be assembled from gores was conceived for original application to the inflatable outer shell of a developmental habitable spacecraft module having a cylindrical mid-length section with toroidal end caps. The method is also applicable to inflatable shells of various shapes for terrestrial use. The method addresses problems associated with the assembly, folding, transport, and deployment of inflatable shells that may comprise multiple layers and have complex shapes that can include such doubly curved surfaces as toroids and spheres. One particularly difficult problem is that of mathematically defining fold lines on a gore pattern in a double- curvature region. Moreover, because the fold lines in a double-curvature region tend to be curved, there is a practical problem of how to implement the folds. Another problem is that of modifying the basic gore shapes and sizes for the various layers so that when they are folded as part of the integral structure, they do not mechanically interfere with each other at the fold lines. Heretofore, it has been a common practice to design an inflatable shell to be assembled in the deployed configuration, without regard for the need to fold it into compact form. Typically, the result has been that folding has been a difficult, time-consuming process resulting in a An improved method of designing complexly shaped inflatable shells to be assembled from gores was conceived for original application to the inflatable outer shell of a developmental habitable spacecraft module having a cylindrical mid-length section with toroidal end caps. The method is also applicable to inflatable shells of various shapes for terrestrial use. The method addresses problems associated with the assembly, folding, transport, and deployment of inflatable shells that may comprise multiple layers and have complex shapes that can include such doubly curved surfaces as toroids and spheres. One particularly difficult problem is that of mathematically defining fold lines on a gore pattern in a double- curvature region. Moreover, because the fold lines in a double-curvature region tend to be curved, there is a practical problem of how to implement the folds. Another problem is that of modifying the basic gore shapes and sizes for the various layers so that when they are folded as part of the integral structure, they do not mechanically interfere with each other at the fold lines. Heretofore, it has been a common practice to design an inflatable shell to be assembled in the deployed configuration, without regard for the need to fold it into compact form. Typically, the result has been that folding has been a difficult, time-consuming process resulting in a

Johnson, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Radio Relays Improve Wireless Products

Signal Hill, California-based XCOM Wireless Inc. developed radio frequency micromachine (RF MEMS) relays with a Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract through NASA?s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In order to improve satellite communication systems, XCOM produced wireless RF MEMS relays and tunable capacitors that use metal-to-metal contact and have the potential to outperform most semiconductor technologies while using less power. These relays are used in high-frequency test equipment and instrumentation, where increased speed can mean significant cost savings. Applications now also include mainstream wireless applications and greatly improved tactical radios.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2009

Operational Improvements From Using the In-Trail Procedure in the North Atlantic Organized Track System

This paper explains the computerized batch processing experiment examining the operational impacts of the introduction of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) equipment and the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) to the North Atlantic Organized Track System. This experiment was conducted using the Traffic Manager (TMX), a desktop simulation capable of simulating airspace environments and aircraft operations. ADS-B equipment can enable the use of new ground and airborne procedures, such as the ITP. ITP is among the first of these new procedures, which will make use of improved situation awareness in the local surrounding airspace of ADS-B equipped aircraft to enable more efficient oceanic flight level changes. The collected data were analyzed with respect to multiple operationally relevant parameters including fuel burn, request approval rates, and the distribution of fuel savings. This experiment showed that through the use of ADS-B or ADS-B and the ITP that operational improvements and benefits could be achieved.

Chartrand, Ryan C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Exploring a Method for Improving Turbulent Separated-Flow Predictions with kappa-omega Models

A particular failing of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes separated turbulent flow computations is addressed within the context of a kappa-omega two-equation turbulence model. The failing is the tendency for turbulence models to under-predict turbulent shear stress in the shear layers of some separation bubbles, yielding late boundary layer reattachment and recovery. Inspired by unpublished work of Volker, Langtry, and Menter, the author undertook an independent investigation in an attempt to improve the ability of the Menter shear stress transport (SST) model to predict flowfield characteristics in and downstream of separation bubbles. The fix is an ad hoc term that is a function of the local ratio of turbulent production to dissipation; it is used to multiply the omega-destruction term, increasing eddy viscosity in separated regions. With this fix, several flowfields are investigated. Results show that, although the "separation fix" can provide dramatic improvement in some cases, it is not consistently good for all flows. Thus, although it may prove helpful in many situations in its current form, this model may benefit from further refinements, including better sensitization to the energetics of turbulence in the separated region.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improved On-Chip Measurement of Delay in an FPGA or ASIC

An improved design has been devised for on-chip-circuitry for measuring the delay through a chain of combinational logic elements in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) or application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). In the improved design, the delay chain does not include input and output buffers and is not configured as an oscillator. Instead, the delay chain is made part of the signal chain of an on-chip pulse generator. The duration of the pulse is measured on-chip and taken to equal the delay.

Chen, Yuan↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contribution of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission to the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Project

The 2005 hurricane season - especially Hurricane Katrina - left the Mississippi Gulf Coast devastated. In its efforts to assist in coastal re-building efforts, the U.S. Congress passed the Defense Appropriation Act of 2006. This legislation directed the Secretary of the Army, via the USACE, to generate reports discussing possible projects that would improve the State of Mississippi?s coastal region. These projects are referred to as the MsCIP. Data collected via the LDCM OLI could be used to evaluate the success of projects that result from the MsCIP by monitoring regional coastal changes associated with such projects. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, and Disaster Management National Applications and will benefit society by improving the post-Hurricane Katrina Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Hilbert, Kent↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improved Low-Temperature Performance of Li-Ion Cells Using New Electrolytes

As part of the continuing efforts to develop advanced electrolytes to improve the performance of lithium-ion cells, especially at low temperatures, a number of electrolyte formulations have been developed that result in improved low-temperature performance (down to 60 C) of 26650 A123Systems commercial lithium-ion cells. The cell type/design, in which the new technology has been demonstrated, has found wide application in the commercial sector (i.e., these cells are currently being used in commercial portable power tools). In addition, the technology is actively being considered for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and electric vehicle (EV) applications. In current work, a number of low-temperature electrolytes have been developed based on advances involving lithium hexafluorophosphate-based solutions in carbonate and carbonate + ester solvent blends, which have been further optimized in the context of the technology and targeted applications. The approaches employed, which include the use of ternary mixtures of carbonates, the use of ester co-solvents [e.g., methyl butyrate (MB)], and optimized lithium salt concentrations (e.g., LiPF6), were compared with the commercial baseline electrolyte, as well as an electrolyte being actively considered for DoE HEV applications and previously developed by a commercial enterprise, namely LiPF6 in ethylene carbonate (EC) + ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC)(30:70%).

Smart, Marshall C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Improved Underwater Excitation-Emission Matrix Fluorometer

A compact, high-resolution, two-dimensional excitation-emission matrix fluorometer (EEMF) has been designed and built specifically for use in identifying and measuring the concentrations of organic compounds, including polluting hydrocarbons, in natural underwater settings. Heretofore, most EEMFs have been designed and built for installation in laboratories, where they are used to analyze the contents of samples collected in the field and brought to the laboratories. Because the present EEMF can be operated in the field, it is better suited to measurement of spatially and temporally varying concentrations of substances of interest. In excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorometry, fluorescence is excited by irradiating a sample at one or more wavelengths, and the fluorescent emission from the sample is measured at multiple wavelengths. When excitation is provided at only one wavelength, the technique is termed one-dimensional (1D) EEM fluorometry because the resulting matrix of fluorescence emission data (the EEM) contains only one row or column. When excitation is provided at multiple wavelengths, the technique is termed two-dimensional (2D) EEM fluorometry because the resulting EEM contains multiple rows and columns. EEM fluorometry - especially the 2D variety - is well established as a means of simultaneously detecting numerous dissolved and particulate compounds in water. Each compound or pool of compounds has a unique spectral fluorescence signature, and each EEM is rich in information content, in that it can contain multiple fluorescence signatures. By use of deconvolution and/or other mixture-analyses techniques, it is often possible to isolate the spectral signature of compounds of interest, even when their fluorescence spectra overlap. What distinguishes the present 2D EEMF over prior laboratory-type 2D EEMFs are several improvements in packaging (including a sealed housing) and other aspects of design that render it suitable for use in natural underwater settings. In addition, the design of the present 2D EEMF incorporates improvements over the one prior commercial underwater 2D EEMF, developed in 1994 by the same company that developed the present one. Notable advanced features of the present EEMF include the following: 1) High sensitivity and spectral resolution are achieved by use of an off-the-shelf grating spectrometer equipped with a sensor in the form of a commercial astronomical- grade 256 532-pixel charge-coupled-device (CCD) array. 2) All of the power supply, timing, control, and readout circuits for the illumination source and the CCD, ancillary environmental monitoring sensors, and circuitry for controlling a shutter or filter motor are custom-designed and mounted compactly on three circuit boards below a fourth circuit board that holds the CCD (see figure). 3) The compactness of the grating spectrometer, CCD, and circuit assembly makes it possible to fit the entire instrument into a compact package that is intended to be maneuverable underwater by one person. 4) In mass production, the cost of the complete instrument would be relatively low - estimated at approximately $30,000 at 2005 prices.

Moore, Casey↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving Customer Waiting Time at a DMV Center Using Discrete-Event Simulation

Virginia's Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) serves a customer base of approximately 5.6 million licensed drivers and ID card holders and 7 million registered vehicle owners. DMV has more daily face-to-face contact with Virginia's citizens than any other state agency [1]. The DMV faces a major difficulty in keeping up with the excessively large customers' arrival rate. The consequences are queues building up, stretching out to the entrance doors (and sometimes even outside) and customers complaining. While the DMV state employees are trying to serve at their fastest pace, the remarkably large queues indicate that there is a serious problem that the DMV faces in its services, which must be dealt with rapidly. Simulation is considered as one of the best tools for evaluating and improving complex systems. In this paper, we use it to model one of the DMV centers located in Norfolk, VA. The simulation model is modeled in Arena 10.0 from Rockwell systems. The data used is collected from experts of the DMV Virginia headquarter located in Richmond. The model created was verified and validated. The intent of this study is to identify key problems causing the delays at the DMV centers and suggest possible solutions to minimize the customers' waiting time. In addition, two tentative hypotheses aiming to improve the model's design are tested and validated.

Arnaout, Georges M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Soundings to Improve Forecast Skill

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. Also included are the clear column radiances used to derive these products which are representative of the radiances AIRS would have seen if there were no clouds in the field of view. All products also have error estimates. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of 1K, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 90 percent effective cloud cover. The products are designed for data assimilation purposes for the improvement of numerical weather prediction, as well as for the study of climate and meteorological processes. With regard to data assimilation, one can use either the products themselves or the clear column radiances from which the products were derived. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates for retrieved quantities and clear column radiances, and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. The temperature profile error estimates are used to determine a case-by-case characteristic pressure pbest, down to which the profile is considered acceptable for data assimilation purposes. The characteristic pressure p(sub best) is determined by comparing the case dependent error estimate (delta)T(p) to the threshold values (Delta)T(p). The AIRS Version 5 data set provides error estimates of T(p) at all levels, and also profile dependent values of pbest based on use of a Standard profile dependent threshold (Delta)T(p). These Standard thresholds were designed as a compromise between optimal use for data assimilation purposes, which requires highest accuracy (tighter Quality Control), and climate purposes, which requires more spatial coverage (looser Quality Control). Subsequent research using Version 5 sounding and error estimates showed that tighter Quality Control performs better for data assimilation proposes, while looser Quality Control better spatial coverage) performs better for climate purposes. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degree latitude x 0.67 degree longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates (delta)T(p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improved Hypoxia Modeling for Nutrient Control Decisions in the Gulf of Mexico

As required by the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 1998, the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force issued the 2001 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan (updated in 2008). In response to the Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan of 2001 (updated in 2008), the EPA Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Modeling and Monitoring Project has established a detailed model for the Mississippi-Attchafalaya River Basin which provides a capability to forecast the multi-source nutrient loading to the Gulf and the subsequent bio-geochemical processes leading to hypoxic conditions and subsequent effects on Gulf habitats and fisheries. The primary purpose of the EPA model is to characterize the impacts of nutrient management actions, or proposed actions on the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Gulf hypoxic zone. The model is expected to play a significant role in determining best practices and improved strategies for incentivizing nutrient reduction strategies, including installation of on-farm structures to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff, use of cover crops and other agricultural practices, restoration of wetlands and riparian buffers, improved waste water treatment and decreased industrial nitrogen emissions. These decisions are currently made in a fragmented way by federal, state, and local agencies, using a variety of small scale models and limited data. During the past three years, EPA has collected an enormous amount of in-situ data to be used in the model. We believe that the use of NASA satellite data products in the model and for long term validation of the model has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy and therefore the utility of the model for the decision making described above. This proposal addresses the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) priority issue of reductions in nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystem. It further directly relates to water quality for healthy beaches and shellfish beds and wetland and coastal conservation restoration.

Habib, Shaid↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Nigro, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improvements to a Flow Sensor for Liquid Bismuth-Fed Hall Thrusters

Recently, there has been significant interest in using bismuth metal as a propellant in Hall Thrusters [1, 2]. Bismuth offers some considerable cost, weight, and space savings over the traditional propellant--xenon. Quantifying the performance of liquid metal-fed Hall thrusters requires a very precise measure of the low propellant flow rates [1, 2]. The low flow rates (~10 mg/sec) and the temperature at which free flowing liquid bismuth exists (above 300 C) preclude the use of off-the-shelf flow sensing equipment [3]. Therefore a new type of sensor is required. The hotspot bismuth flow sensor, described in Refs. [1-5] is designed to perform a flow rate measurement by measuring the velocity at which a thermal feature moves through a flow chamber. The mass flow rate can be determined from the time of flight of the thermal peak, [4, 5]. Previous research and testing has been concerned mainly with the generation of the thermal peak and it's subsequent detection. In this paper, we present design improvements to the sensor concept; and the results of testing conducted to verify the functionality of these improvements. A ceramic material is required for the sensor body (see Fig. 1), which must allow for active heating of the bismuth flow channel to keep the propellant in a liquid state. The material must be compatible with bismuth and must be bonded to conductive elements to allow for conduction of current into the liquid metal and measurement of the temperature in the flow. The new sensor requires fabrication techniques that will allow for a very small diameter flow chamber, which is required to produce useful measurements. Testing of various materials has revealed several that are potentially compatible with liquid bismuth. Of primary concern in the fabrication and testing of a robust, working prototype, is the compatibility of the selected materials with one another. Specifically, the thermal expansion rates of the materials relative to the ceramic body cannot expand so much as to cause cracks in the body or cause the bond between parts to delaminate. Those parts that will carry the current pulse must be electrically conductive while the sensor body must be an electrical insulator. Generally, the material choices as well as the sensor design must aid to preserve the integrity of the thermal feature to obtain accurate measurements. The present aim is to also incorporate, into the sensor body, an active heating arrangement based on ceramic heater technology similar to that used in semiconductor manufacturing.

Bonds, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗